epirali said:
Also I believe for sales numbers that the Model 3 is supposed to generate it has to function very well as the primary car for a lot of people (not secondary or with an ICE as backup). And I find it hard to believe that we will have any kind of infrastructure than can support a million electric cars in daily use any time soon.
I don't think they are going to have a million 3s anytime soon.
Just as Leaf2 will not sell a million anytime soon.
In the US - Leaf 2 can hope to achieve 100k sales a year. This would be mostly for families without one other car as the backup (which could be an ICE or a PHEV).
For 3 the problem will be the price. Without the tax credit - avg selling price will be north of $40k. Infact a decently optioned 3 will be north of $40k.
To get to a point where a significant % of people start having only BEVs in the family - we would need a couple of things.
- 3 to 4 hours of highway range
- Ubiquitous charging, which gives 3 to 4 hours of highway driving range in 30 minutes. The charging infrastructure needs to be everywhere and in such large numbers that I would almost always find an empty slot when I need it.
BTW, in a lot of states we are going to see incentives only for cheaper EVs. Already in WA only $35k and less EVs get sales tax off. So, unless I can get a 3 for $34,999 (and hopefully add after market options from Tesla), this would add 10% to the cost.