Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[LTLFTcomposite]

I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

 

[edatoakrun]

I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

Poor management?

Model 3 production execution would seem to be slightly less-than-perfect, as model 3 production has only reached about 1% of the ~24,000 one prominent tesliac was projecting by October, about seven months ago.

See the chart at:

Tesla Model 3: perfect production execution means around 80,000 vehicles in 2017

Fred Lambert - Feb. 27th 2017 4:36 pm ET

.... we track a perfect execution of a Model 3 production ramp at about 80,000 units in 2017...

https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/tesla-model-3-perfect-execution-production-2017/

 

[webb14leafs]

I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

I'm sure there's a lot of blackbelt/six sigma/keizan meetings going on right now.

 

[webb14leafs]

Personally, I don't see why missing these dates is a big deal for Tesla. The car will come out and people will buy it. An extra 2 or 3 months of cash burn is nothing but an inconvenience for a market dominating company like this. I'm not saying their stock price is rational, but missing a production date doesn't make it much less rational.

 

[lpickup]

I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

Poor management?

While management is certainly to blame for unnecessarily creating twitter hype and outlining a best case scenario for ramp up, I see no evidence that management itself is responsible for actual production bottlenecks. It's par for the course when launching a new production line. The only mistake is that Elon should probably have kept his production targets between him and his production team and confined his tweets to actual confirmed progress.

Model 3 production execution would seem to be slightly less-than-perfect, as model 3 production has only reached about 1% of the ~24,000 one prominent tesliac was projecting by October, about seven months ago.

See the chart at:

Tesla Model 3: perfect production execution means around 80,000 vehicles in 2017

Fred Lambert - Feb. 27th 2017 4:36 pm ET

.... we track a perfect execution of a Model 3 production ramp at about 80,000 units in 2017...

https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/tesla-model-3-perfect-execution-production-2017/

Again, it seems as if you don't even read the stuff you post. Funny you didn't include the very next sentence after the one you quoted:

That would barely make a dent in Tesla’s backlog of over 400,000 reservations and again, that’s assuming a perfect execution, which is near impossible.

But please continue to cherry pick 7 month old sound bites out of context to back up your thesis that Tesla is only a quarter away from going bankrupt, and continue to do so quarter after quarter after quarter...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

As a point of reference, Nissan recently introduced a new model "Rogue Sport" and the seem to be turning them out at a pretty good clip. I wonder how the product development cycle compares between that and the model 3.

 

[lpickup]

I suspect a traditional automaker would have had a more well defined ramp up (based on traditional model year release, but not always--the LEAF itself has had its share of non-traditional release cycles) and not shared details like 'S' curves and what not and sufficiently primed their supply chains & distribution channels before having a release.

Tesla is different in this respect for many reasons, not the least of which is their need to accelerate the Model 3 program as fast as possible to turn their Gigafactory & Model 3 production investments into revenue as quickly as possible. Not to mention the fact that even Tesla was taken by surprise by the level of interest in the Model 3 and I believe they over-accelerated their ramp up to react to that.

 

[hyperionmark]

To the shorters in this thread...you'll be happy to know I bought more Tesla stock today.

 

[Nubo]

Most wise traders don't short a stock, e.g. TSLA, when its shareholders are irrational investors!

TSLA was something like 67% of shares outstanding, iirc, prior to the Model S launch. The car was exceptionally well-received and the short-squeeze was phenomenal.

So, that's old history!
The bottom line now is:
1. Can they produce the M3 at the volumes projected and in the expected time frame?
2. Will they be profitable at ASPs less than $45K?
3. Will they cannibalize MS sales and lose more money?

The next six months is when "the rubber hits the road"!

Sure it's old news, and maybe this time will be different. But it's worth noting pretty much the same arguments and doubts were being made prior to release of Model S. The real make-or-break is going to be perceived quality and reliability. If those are rock solid the media will swoon and I wouldn't want to be holding a short interest.

 

[GRA]

So, that's old history!
The bottom line now is:
1. Can they produce the M3 at the volumes projected and in the expected time frame?
2. Will they be profitable at ASPs less than $45K?
3. Will they cannibalize MS sales and lose more money?

The next six months is when "the rubber hits the road"!

Sure it's old news, and maybe this time will be different. But it's worth noting pretty much the same arguments and doubts were being made prior to release of Model S. The real make-or-break is going to be perceived quality and reliability. If those are rock solid the media will swoon and I wouldn't want to be holding a short interest.

Some of the photos I've seen posted show unacceptable quality control, panel gaps, loose weatherstripping, etc., so we'll have to see if they can get those under control. The big question is whether the gamble to go direct to production tooling pays off, or costs them a bundle of money and lost time.

 

[scottf200]

Personally, I don't see why missing these dates is a big deal for Tesla. The car will come out and people will buy it. An extra 2 or 3 months of cash burn is nothing but an inconvenience for a market dominating company like this. I'm not saying their stock price is rational, but missing a production date doesn't make it much less rational.

Sound logic. The absolute best thing they can do is make sure the quality is there before mass producing them in large numbers. It is actually great news that they understand and are doing that.

 

[Dooglas]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

 

[lorenfb]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

 

[finman100]

what would you do differently?

 

[webb14leafs]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

He's just pointing out that the company has launched 2 vehicles with relatively large volume production. They aren't re-inventing the wheel.

 

[hyperionmark]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

Please list some sources as to how each individual would be unprofitable.

 

[lorenfb]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

Please list some sources as to how each individual would be unprofitable.

Please clarify your question.

 

[webb14leafs]

Actually, I thought the big news was that Tesla is on track to deliver 100,000 model S and model X vehicles in 2017. That sounds to me that Tesla has figured out how to manufacture cars in substantial numbers. Now, two big questions remain. Can Tesla build 100s of thousands of model 3s at a profit, and can Tesla support (parts, warranty repairs, etc) a user base as it grows to many 100s of thousands of owners? We'll see.

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

Are you stating that the current cash burn rate is 100K per produced car per year? If so, what numbers are you using?

 

[hyperionmark]

Producing unprofitable vehicles at a 100K per year run rate hardly qualifies as a viable and long term
automotive company!

Please list some sources as to how each individual would be unprofitable.

Please clarify your question.

Please show me a source showing that they are losing money on each car they produce.

 

[lorenfb]

Please list some sources as to how each individual would be unprofitable.

Please clarify your question.

Please show me a source showing that they are losing money on each car they produce.

Please just read any Tesla quarterly financial statement. Yes, their GP (gross profit) per vehicle is positive but
when the other costs (besides direct costs - parts & labor), e.g. sales & R&D, Tesla loses money. A viable business
in the long run can't continually float debt and issue stock to fund operations. Apple's GP per iPhone is much greater
than Tesla's and they are very profitable on the "bottom line" too.

Furthermore, now with the M3, they'll probably lose more money as the M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS.
Many new Tesla buyers will see little value in an MS for the additional cost versus a M3 and will buy the M3
resulting in less GP per vehicle for Tesla. Yes, the M3 is smaller but most who buy the MS rarely buy the
MS as a family vehicle like a CUV and are older buyers. Besides, why buy a MS with about the same range
and carry another 500+ lbs with a MS. Also, the M3 can be ordered with many of the same features as a MS.