lorenfb said:
And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.
No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.
Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI
M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.