GRA
Well-known member
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen :roll:dgpcolorado said:
Official Tesla Model 3 thread
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evnow
Well-known member
2018/19 is my guess.
2018 is realistic - with 2019 a distinct possibility.
2018 is realistic - with 2019 a distinct possibility.
smkettner
Well-known member
Yes and 2020 for the initial bugs to get worked out and production to begin to ramp up.evnow said:
dgpcolorado
Well-known member
Pretty much my guess as well. I've been planning on 2018 for some time.evnow said:
Musk has indicated that he is aware of the reputation for delays and that he really wants to get the Model 3 out on time or close to it. Unlike the Model X.
Can't be soon enough for me: I sure would like to get rid of my ICEV and go to just one car, a pure EV. I am hoping that the ordering queue will open sometime in 2016. I also expect Tesla to front-load production with the more expensive models and that those of us who want the plain-Jane, inexpensive version will have to wait a bit. We shall see.
evnow
Well-known member
Yes, they are definitely not for democratization - those with more money will always get theirs first.dgpcolorado said:
I think volume production of lower end 2 will be in '19/20.
Infact I've been thinking that I can go thr' 2 more lease cycles before I can get hold of a Model 3 (if I do).
abasile
Well-known member
Tesla has been very shrewd in this regard. People who love buying all of the options, and who always want the latest and greatest, are playing a significant role in funding the EV revolution. On the other hand, for those of us who prefer to buy used, I'm happy to see Tesla's CPO program.evnow said:
It might come earlier. I expect the ramp-up to proceed much more quickly with the Model 3. Then again, as a small-time TSLA shareholder eager to see Tesla remain in business for many years, I'd prefer to see them allocate as much production to the higher-margin Model S/X as demand permits.evnow said:
smkettner
Well-known member
At what production level will Tesla need a new assembly plant?
cwerdna
Well-known member
http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2009/07/high-cost-nummi-plant-on-chopping-block/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; saidsmkettner said:
Tesla bought the NUMMI plant after Toyota ended up shutting it down after GM pulled out.
BTW, if you never listened to the This American Life ep on the transformation of one of the worst GM plants that was closed then resurrected as NUMMI, if you like cars, you should really enjoy it. See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=11371" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
PatricioEV
Well-known member
My reasons why I think Tesla can produce Model III quickly (even though they haven't produced a model on time yet!)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patri...6138.html?utm_hp_ref=technology&ir=Technology
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patri...6138.html?utm_hp_ref=technology&ir=Technology
dgpcolorado
Well-known member
I hope that you are right. But coming out with any new car tends to lead to unforeseen problems that have to be solved as they crop up, even if Tesla won't be trying to invent falcon doors and fancy door handles for the Model 3. And it remains to be seen if battery production from the "Gigafactory" ramps up as scheduled.PatricioEV said:
dgpcolorado said:
The ramp up of battery production won't delay the Model 3. At worse it will slow the ramp up of the Model 3, not delay the debut.
The biggest risk, IMO, is getting suppliers lined up.
They had a bear of a time getting suppliers to take them seriously with the S.
I'm hoping that is less of a challenge with the 3.
smkettner
Well-known member
Batteries Tesla has down pat. I want a redesign on the drivetrain/gearbox that seems to frequently make far more noise than needed.
evnow
Well-known member
PatricioEV said:
"Mass market" and cost cutting brings its own challenges. They are not any less significant than fancy handles or falcon doors. Chances of Tesla releasing Model 3 "on time" is slim.
mjblazin
Well-known member
Mass production of an automobile is the most difficult industrial engineering challenge that exists. Absolutely nothing about it is easy or cookie cutter. It combines parts with very low error tolerances and huge volumes of same parts. Extrapolating from 10,000 cars a quarter to 100,000 is not simply turning turning the crank 10x as fast. The more volume you push, the more you exacerbate any minor defects in your process.
evnow said:
~20-30% less material in the car itself, going to a cheaper material, the cost of a smaller battery pack (which was generating strong revenue for them even in 2012), generating a non-luxury gross margin on each car, and leaving out or slimming down complicated features like the 17" touchscreen and door handles will, by itself, bring Model 3 costs in line.
This isn't an ICE. Other than the battery packs EVs are much, much cheaper to manufacture than ICEs, and I could very easily see Musk getting 200 miles of range on a $4-5k battery pack. Their utility battery packs are down to $250 per kwh and the Gigafactory is going to drop that even more.
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
eloder said:
Steel is certainly cheaper than aluminum, but Tesla has never manufactured a car of steel before. There will be a learning curve. Hopefully they pull in / leverage the existing experience base to help reduce this overhead.
eloder said:
So by your math, $5k today would get Tesla a 20kWh battery. That will not even get them 100 miles, let alone 200 miles. Are you implying that Tesla can "very easily" cut the battery price by more than a factor of 2 via the Gigafactory?
garsh
Well-known member
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...rs-incs-gigafactory-may-be-more-revoluti.aspxGetOffYourGas said:
They're looking to get the cost down to $100 per kWh by 2024.
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
Tesla is tossing around the 30% number as a conservative estimate. So that would be roughly $175/kWh. $100/kWh would be great, even if it did take until 2024. And that would give us our 200-mile Model III with a $5k battery.
But that story is different from eloder's "very easily":
eloder said:
Granted, maybe he was also talking about the 2024 time frame, but that wasn't my impression given the context.
evnow
Well-known member
LOL. You have drunk the Kool-Aid.eloder said:
nosuchthing
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2010
- Messages
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Math is simple: 200 mile car needs 50 kWh battery. At 100 bucks per kW that means 5 grand. 200 bucks per kWh is 10 grand.
