"No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Perry

[cwerdna]

Mark Perry's comment is unfortunately based upon skewed data. First, because of the car's range constraint of course his data would reflect that people are getting by with the shorter range. Secondly, how many of those people have more than one vehicle.

Totally agree about the data being skewed. I think there's a self selection bias in the audience.

Perhaps just a bit of re-wording might help. I would agree with the "no market need" quote as long as you look at it from this perspective. Nissan has the best EV deal on the market right now and they will continue to sell every vehicle they produce without upgrading any features.

Also, in order to avoid the Osborne effect, you don't necessarily want to promote your next generation product too early, or you might lose sales of current product.

Interesting perspective... perhaps avoiding the Osborne effect is the motivation for the statements.

 

[surfingslovak]

It's all marketing and PR... It's the auto industry, they make it up as they go.

Just had a chance to read the article in full. It appears that Mark was interviewed in the context of the Model S unveiling earlier this month, and the article might have had couple of weeks lead time before it was published. It looks like Tesla will deploy batteries with about twice the energy density than Nissan currently has. With over 6,000 reservations, they have sold out their 2012 production capacity and Mark used Carwings data to defend his company's turf, since they likely won't wield comparable technology before 2015. You are probably correct, EVDriver, it's just marketing speak, nothing to see here.

There are couple of quotes that caught my attention however. Mark mentions a panel that consisted of 1,500 owners. Has anyone on this board heard of such a thing? Another interesting bit was that the Leaf had an average recharge time of about 2 hours at night. Such data could indeed delay the introduction of the 6.6 kW charger or cause Nissan not to go through the trouble of offering an upgrade to existing owners. Even more reason to look for alternative solutions.

 

[edatoakrun]

...It looks like Tesla will deploy batteries with about twice the energy density than Nissan currently has...

Mark used Carwings data to defend his company's turf, since they likely won't wield comparable technology before 2015...

Is there any evidence that cost-effective and practical EV batteries "with twice the energy density than Nissan currently has" currently exist, or will by 2015?

 

[surfingslovak]

Is there any evidence that cost-effective and practical EV batteries "with twice the energy density than Nissan currently has" currently exist, or will by 2015?

Have a look at the MINI-E spec sheet for example. Reportedly NMC chemistry with about 70% higher energy density when you go by the total pack weight. These cells were available in 2008 from E-One Moli (Molicel), but were not fully optimized for large-scale EV applications. BMW is working with SB LiMotive, a joint venture between Samsung SDI and Robert Bosch GmbH, to bring this technology to market in 2013. It's a bit tougher to get data for the Model S, but it's out there and Tesla claims that they had the highest energy density in the industry.

 

[Boomer23]

There are couple of quotes that caught my attention however. Mark mentions a panel that consisted of 1,500 owners. Has anyone on this board heard of such a thing?

Yes, a bunch of us were emailed the opportunity to be part of a "Nissan LEAF Online Research Panel" back in January. I think that we've been sent about four online surveys to complete. There was a lot of discussion here about each survey and our thoughts on the topics, and what we thought that the questions told us about Nissan's thinking.

 

[Herm]

Is there any evidence that cost-effective and practical EV batteries "with twice the energy density than Nissan currently has" currently exist, or will by 2015?

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/01/tesla-panasonic-20100107.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the key is that these are laptop cells and that implies a shorter life.. but if you only drive 40 miles a day with a 300 mile pack it will be cycled so gently that it may last much longer. Cost effective depends on how much Panasonic charges Tesla for them. The 3.4Ah cell has an energy density of 265wh/kg, and that is not quite twice the 150wh/kg that Nissan uses now.

"In December, Panasonic announced the development of two new 18650-type (18 mm in diameter, 65 mm in height) high-capacity lithium-ion battery cells. The newly-developed high-capacity 3.4 Ah and 4.0 Ah lithium-ion battery cells have an improved nickel-based positive electrode (Panasonic’s proprietary positive electrode material based on LiNiO2, allowing for high capacity and durability). The 4.0 Ah cell uses a silicon-based alloy for the negative electrode instead of carbon, and offers a volumetric energy density of 800 Wh/L, compared to the 620 Wh/L in the current 2.9 Ah cells."

 

[edatoakrun]

Is there any evidence that cost-effective and practical EV batteries "with twice the energy density than Nissan currently has" currently exist, or will by 2015?

... It's a bit tougher to get data for the Model S, but it's out there and Tesla claims that they had the highest energy density in the industry.

I've read many press releases and speculative reports, like these.

But I've seen no real evidence of any great leap, such as 100%, in EV battery energy density. IMO, this is about the energy density level that would push the ICEV from obsolescence, to obsolete.

If Nissan (or any other major vehicle manufacturer) was expecting to double energy density and BEV range, with the same kWh cost and battery life, in only 3 years, would they all still be planning to have 90%-99% of their 2015 production ICE powered?

If Tesla is really less than a year away from production of the "300 mile" S, some hard figures re energy density should be coming out soon.

 

[edatoakrun]

"Herm"the key is that these are laptop cells and that implies a shorter life.. but if you only drive 40 miles a day with a 300 mile pack it will be cycled so gently that it may last much longer. Cost effective depends on how much Panasonic charges Tesla for them. The 3.4Ah cell has an energy density of 265wh/kg, and that is not quite twice the 150wh/kg that Nissan uses now.

So, you expect the 85 kWh? "300 mile" Tesla S battery pack will weigh how much?

I have no doubt doubling the LEAFs current battery energy density is possible.

I am very doubtful, that it will done at near the same cost over the BEV battery life, by 2015.

 

[adric22]

the key is that these are laptop cells and that implies a shorter life.. but if you only drive 40 miles a day with a 300 mile pack it will be cycled so gently that it may last much longer. Cost effective depends on how much Panasonic charges Tesla for them. The 3.4Ah cell has an energy density of 265wh/kg, and that is not quite twice the 150wh/kg that Nissan uses now.

I've been interested in this too. The 18650 cells they use in the roadster are only rated for around 300 cycles. But being the battery pack is so huge, if you only drove 40 miles per day on average, it would take about 6 years to actually cycle them 300 times.

I'm in the laptop business and I've even dabbled in battery refurbishment (replacing the cells in laptop battery packs) and I've come to the conclusion that a laptop cell when treated properly can last 6 years and still be able to hold most of its original charge. That assumes the number of cycles is low, but also that the battery has never been totally discharged for very long periods of time. However, once you start hitting 7 or 8 years, the batteries just start to drop like flies no matter what. So that would worry me with a Tesla considering how expensive their battery packs are. Of course, if I could afford a Tesla to begin with, then maybe it wouldn't bother me so much.

Anyway, the point is.. I have a sneaking suspicion that a 10-year-old Leaf will still have a much more reliable battery pack than a 10-year-old Tesla. I guess time will tell.

 

[edatoakrun]

the key is that these are laptop cells and that implies a shorter life.. but if you only drive 40 miles a day with a 300 mile pack it will be cycled so gently that it may last much longer. Cost effective depends on how much Panasonic charges Tesla for them. The 3.4Ah cell has an energy density of 265wh/kg, and that is not quite twice the 150wh/kg that Nissan uses now.

I've been interested in this too. The 18650 cells they use in the roadster are only rated for around 300 cycles. But being the battery pack is so huge, if you only drove 40 miles per day on average, it would take about 6 years to actually cycle them 300 times.

I'm in the laptop business and I've even dabbled in battery refurbishment (replacing the cells in laptop battery packs) and I've come to the conclusion that a laptop cell when treated properly can last 6 years and still be able to hold most of its original charge. That assumes the number of cycles is low, but also that the battery has never been totally discharged for very long periods of time. However, once you start hitting 7 or 8 years, the batteries just start to drop like flies no matter what. So that would worry me with a Tesla considering how expensive their battery packs are. Of course, if I could afford a Tesla to begin with, then maybe it wouldn't bother me so much.

Anyway, the point is.. I have a sneaking suspicion that a 10-year-old Leaf will still have a much more reliable battery pack than a 10-year-old Tesla. I guess time will tell.

That's not my quote, though I don't disagree with it.

I've been wondering, what do you do with a 18650 (or more) cell battery pack, after it degrades beyond the desired BEV range capacity?

I hope the economics of repurposing will work for the LEAF battery. Won't it be higher order of difficulty to repurpose or refurbish battery packs made up of a much larger numbers of cells?

Do you have to test/replace each cell individually?

 

[surfingslovak]

The key is that these are laptop cells and that implies a shorter life..

Yes, and this was one of the factors that made me reconsider a Model S reservation. The Roadster battery warranty is quite short, and although the estimates Tesla provides for Model S are considerably better, purpose-built batteries should have a clear edge in this regard. It would be unwise for Mark to attack Tesla from this angle however, since it could harm sales of his own product. Battery longevity is not exactly a strong selling point for either manufacturer. It's a lot easier and more effective to invalidate the use case for long-range EVs instead.

 

[Herm]

The Tesla advantage is that it uses commodity cells, 20 years from now you should be able to rebuild a Tesla pack if you are handy with a soldering iron and have LOTS of patience

 

[Stoaty]

Another interesting bit was that the Leaf had an average recharge time of about 2 hours at night. Such data could indeed delay the introduction of the 6.6 kW charger or cause Nissan not to go through the trouble of offering an upgrade to existing owners. Even more reason to look for alternative solutions.

The 2 hour time sounds about right. For me, it is 2.5 hours. However, the reason for a 6.6 kW charger isn't to charge more quickly at night, it is for opportunity charging. That's where it makes a real difference--25 minutes instead of 50 for two additional bars. I could have used the faster charger today.

 

[pawsouth]

Mark Perry is skewing his data. He is looking at what we are driving now. Not what some of us would drive if the car would go further. Most of us drive less than 70 miles a day because on the freeway we can't get much more. And we are talking multiple hours to recharge. For me I drive my ice car two days a week because I need to go 65 miles for a 1 hour appointment and 65 miles back. I can't drive 130 miles even with hypermiling and 4.5 hours to recharge at a different spot from the office is just too long. I wish I had a faster charger that 3.3kw. The QC are coming but as far as I can see it won't be in the route I'm taking. I even thought of selling my leaf and buying the Volt for the extended range but by the time I do that I should just go back to the Prius since it would get better millage.

 

[Volt3939]

The Tesla advantage is that it uses commodity cells, 20 years from now you should be able to rebuild a Tesla pack if you have a spot welder and have LOTS of patience

There, I fixed it for you.
I seem to remember someone on the EVDL paying around $5000 for the spot welder needed to properly weld tabs on all their 18650 cells a few years back... (A123 IIRC)

 

[Herm]

There, I fixed it for you.
I seem to remember someone on the EVDL paying around $5000 for the spot welder needed to properly weld tabs on all their 18650 cells a few years back... (A123 IIRC)

You can make a spot welder for a lot less than that.. probably a good idea if your are replacing 7000 cells.

 

[Volt3939]

As long as extended range EVs are not available, it cannot be a primary substitute for the ICE car. And not everyone can afford to have 2 cars. Most people only prefer to own 1 car. So there IS a market need for longer range EVs, even if the longer range need is only occasional.

Extended range EVs are available now. :roll: The Volt (EREV in the ads) can be the only car in a household.
The reported average Leaf use of 37 miles (also about the national average daily mileage) fits very well in it's range.
The occasional need for longer range is built in.

I know, I know, it has an ICE that doesn't qualify it as a "pure" EV, but for my use (around 15 miles a day) it has worked great. We do need the 240V charger on the weekends, I have put over 80 all electric miles in one day on the odo. Speaking of the odometer, after 3300 miles it has used exactly 1.2 gals., mostly during the first week. Oh, and it was delivered with 0.6 gals. already on the clock, from it's first mile, during testing I presume.
(Does someone make a badge that says "99% Electric"?)

As a sage on EVDL said recently:

"A bad solution that is well done will beat a great solution that is
badly implemented." Lee Hart

(Not saying anything negative about the Leaf with that statement, just that the Volt, while being a "bad" solution, IS well done.)

 

[Volt3939]

You can make a spot welder for a lot less than that.. probably a good idea if your are replacing 7000 cells.

Having a racing sponsorship means never having to make what you can buy ready made, while at the same time it means making everything else on your own.

 

[SteveInSeattle]

This really is a simple matter-- Nissan feels there is a sufficient market for the current Leaf and its current range, and there probably is. Of course, there are other customers who would be willing to pay more for more range-- but realistically at a certain point the weight of the car and the cost would make it undesirable. A larger car, with more power, like the Tesla S, will be able to handle the extra battery weight better, but they can't get around the extra cost issue.

If an extended range Leaf were available it would weigh hundreds of pounds more-- think about how that would affect handling and acceleration. Range cannot be extended until better battery chemistry allows more range in the same size batteries.

 

[Stanton]

Anyway, the point is.. I have a sneaking suspicion that a 10-year-old Leaf will still have a much more reliable battery pack than a 10-year-old Tesla. I guess time will tell.

...and that's the rub. Even worse is you're paying MUCH MORE for that increased range. I'm not wishing ill on any company, but are you willing to bet that Tesla will even be around in 6-8 years to back that warranty (I have no doubt that Nissan will)?