Nissan won't make EV goals of 1.5m sold by 2016

[Deleted member 8423]

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/nissan-renault-wont-make-electric-vehicle-goals-ceo-2D11577487" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan/Renault won’t meet Chief Carlos Ghosn’s ambitious goal of selling 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2016. In fact, it will not even be close.

The Japanese/French automotive alliance will miss that target by more than 1 million vehicles, as it has sold about 120,000 EVs, most of them Nissan Leafs. Ghosn now believes it will take much longer to reach the 1.5-million unit goal.

“We will not be there. At the speed right now, I’m seeing it more four or five years later,” he said in an interview with The Financial Times.

He's blaming it on infrastructure. Good to see that Nissan is trying to do something about it, but they can have a more immediate impact by offering to pay for the electricity used by the existing dealer DCFC's. And they should find a way to reward those that have left their DCFC's available for everyone to use.

Maybe they should also pursue a partnership with the new folks that own Blink, to figure out how they can expand that network.

 

[cwerdna]

Thanks for the story!

I remember seeing an interview w/Ghosn at an auto show a few months ago (might've been the Frankfurt auto show mentioned in the article) and he also blamed it on infrastructure. I don't really agree but perhaps his POV is from looking at how many CHAdeMO DC FCs are in Japan vs. rest of world, esp. much of the US.

I also figure, perhaps his explanation is due to those who don't know much about BEVs and have ruled them out thinking they really do need the infrastructure, when in reality, they'll find it out it's not as important as they thought.

Wish he'd elaborate more on his assertion.

edit: Found I think the interview I saw: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ghosn-says-europe-car-market-may-grow-1-5-in-2014-Z0Fx7AJqSdyCW_jI3HzkAQ.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. He answers infrastructure to the question around 2:15.

 

[RegGuheert]

...and he also blamed it on infrastructure. I don't really agree...

Me, neither!

 

[TomT]

Add another to that list...

...and he also blamed it on infrastructure. I don't really agree...

Me, neither!

 

[Train]

Agreed, infrastructure doesn't have anything to do with lower than expected sales.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

They want infrastructure, but they don't build it.

They want sales, but they don't sell it.

 

[kubel]

I don't think it has to do with infrastructure. It has to do with the fact that people see that electric cars cost 1.5 times the cost of a gas car, have 1/5th the range, take 3 (best case scenario) to 25 times (best real world scenario) as long to 'fill up', and a huge chunk of the cars cost has a lifespan equal to about 1/10th to 1/3rd of the life of a gas engine. Gas is not expensive enough to motivate people to make the same kind of sacrifices that you and I see are no problem.

Ultimately, the current trend of producing affordable yet limited range electric vehicles is not going to catch on. Nissan made a bad business decision investing so much in the LEAF. There's a very real possibility that the LEAF will go the way of the EV1. Short of Peak Oil slapping us across the face within the next decade, I think the only real success will come from car manufacturers like Tesla that produce premium electric vehicles that have long range. The idea that we can Henry Ford the electric car isn't going to work short of a technological breakthrough. The current generation of batteries are just too damn expensive, not to mention, they suck.

Now that I'm done bashing on electric cars, let me say the LEAF is the best car I've ever owned and I have no intention of ever going back to gas.

 

[edatoakrun]

Add another to that list...

...and he also blamed it on infrastructure. I don't really agree...

Me, neither!

You may be in the minority of current (and potential) BEV drivers, in your opinion:

Comprehensive Study of EV Drivers Reveals Plug-in Attitudes

By Brad Berman · November 14, 2013

PlugInsights, a new electric vehicle research firm, issued its first report today. The firm, part of Recargo Inc.—the company behind PlugShare and PluginCars.com—conducted a series of recent surveys about the experiences and opinions of EV owners. The publication, entitled “2013 U.S. PEV Charging Study,” used responses from 3,700 American drivers of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. That represents more than 2 percent of U.S. EV drivers, and “the most comprehensive look at the topic,” according to PlugInsight....

One of the key themes of the first study, according to Norman Hajjar, managing director of PlugInsights, is the need for more public Quick Charging. “Until fast charging becomes broadly available, mid-range battery electric vehicles like the Nissan LEAF are trapped on a leash, close to home,” he said...


Top Five Insights

Responses from nearly 4,000 EV drivers revealed the following issues:

1. There is a lack of Quick Charging.

Level 2 240-volt charging is too slow and impractical to bridge distant locations. As a result, the average “longest trip” for mid-range BEV owners is only 96 miles, compared to more than 300 miles for plug-in hybrids and Tesla vehicles. Bottom line: Without fast charging, mid-range battery-electric vehicles are confined to “commuter car” status, and lack appeal to a broader audience...

http://www.plugincars.com/comprehensive-study-ev-drivers-reveals-plug-attitudes-128883.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

You may be in the minority of current (and potential) BEV drivers, in your opinion:

Perhaps, but it doesn't appear that the survey you linked asked that question. They asked what the longest trip the owners had made in their EV and they extrapolated for the need for more quick chargers. In my case, our longest trip in the LEAF is quite low, but that does not mean I feel feel infrastructure is holding back EV sales today. In my opinion, more range would boost sales much more quickly than more charging infrastructure would.

 

[jsongster]

I think Ghosn is correct...
Imagine a DC QC at every gas station or Kwik Stop or 711... would range ever be an issue.

Even one at every McDonalds might do the trick if it didn't kill the patrons too fast with the food Or solar powered Highway rest stops with DCQC... every 30 to 40 miles... every 10 miles to eliminate waits.

Just 24/7 available at every nissan, infinity and ud truck sales location with company paid solar on dealer roof to incentivize them...to make it avail 24/7 and public.

As far as sales go... add a EV model of every car that can handle it in the line... go all in on EV... the dealer net will have to catch up or be replaced by Tesla style direct sales... most dealers are rotten anyway so... not much of a loss really.

 

[TomT]

Yes, because traveling at freeway speeds, I don't want to have to stop every 50 miles to charge for 20-30 minutes...

I think Ghosn is correct...
Imagine a DC QC at every gas station or Kwik Stop or 711... would range ever be an issue.

 

[wsbca]

I think Ghosn is correct...
Imagine a DC QC at every gas station or Kwik Stop or 711... would range ever be an issue.

I would love to see this. But it's still totally flawed when it comes to mass adoption of EVs, because it doesn't scale at all. A single DCQC can only service at most 3 cars an hour, with perfect synchronization of arrivals and departures. Ubiquitous 6.6kW level 2 in many, many parking spaces at destinations (meaning places people go to spend time, not just to fuel up for the next leg) would increase uptake more, I think. And, easier still, a simple realization that current EVs are ideally suited to serve as a second vehicle for a household, even with zero public infrastructure. I see more Leafs every day and it's encouraging, but of course not that many in the larger scheme of things. I would bet almost all of them are second vehicles, for which most people really have no need for infrastructure other than their own EVSE. I've charged away from home less than 5 times in coming up on 3 years, only once since Blink started charging money, and that was recently at a free site in a shopping center (which I suppose I might gratuitously use again if it happens to be unoccupied, but it's only 4 miles from my house so I don't really need it, and it's hardly ever going to be unoccupied - the one time I used it was after I wandered back by and the RAV that had been using one of the two units was gone, the Tesla coupe in the other was still slurping away - I would never count on the units being free to decide whether I could make it to that mall or not)

 

[Valdemar]

Are we talking about a self-sustainable infrastructure or a heavily subsidized one? IMO the former would make EVs even less appealing to the general public as the costs for charging will be comparable to gas prices for similar vehicles. For example, I drove 2300 miles last month, and had to spend 1-2 hrs per day on L2 @ $2/hr at work in addition to using ~500Kwh at home. I'm estimating 60mpge at the current gas prices for the last month which is meh because the Prius can do 50.

 

[jsongster]

For me it is not simple math... devoid of the externalities... I wanted the car and am enjoying the car because it is a change in the world that we need. Yes, for the next few years other cars may be more economical... Don't care... If good people don't continue to invest in great mass transit, better cars, and cleaner air and water... it won't matter.

Fracking and strip mining our continent to get a few more drops of a burnable polluting commodity is an immoral thing to do. It will cause Cancer in thousands more folks, raise the prices of fresh, drinkable water as the wells leak and leach chemicals that should never have been allowed ( the europeans don't ) into the ground into our drinking water supplies and almost as importantly our food supply via the plants.

I live near 4 refineries in the SF Bay area. They produce gasoline. They also occasionally malfunction and belch noxious smoke and other particles over our children's schools who are asked to "shelter in place" while the company responsible comes by to hose down the pollutants.

My kids and I have all developed asthma and at least a few times a year one or another of us needs an inhaler to clear it up.

When I drive my LEAF and tell others about it... and help pressure our society to begin to dump oil before it dumps us... I feel great that at least I am a small part of the solution. In a few years many of the problems will be solved with these electric cars... the replacement batteries will be priced at a lot less than Nissan is paying now to make them... and the density of the newer batteries will be higher... so the cars will go farther.

If Honda and GM hadn't screwed this up in the 90s we'd likely already be there. We need electric cars. We need to get off the polluting fuel addiction. We need solar and wind power to take over for the nastier forms of generation.

Imagine how much less pollution if the Peoples Republic of China made the bold move of stopping sales of gasoline cars in 5 years or 10... and built out support for electrics... the massive air problems they have could be solved. It would shift the car industry on its head as they all pander to get into this giant market for sales. They sacrificed and did the one child family and slowed global overpopulation for years. We all need to fix this.

 

[Valdemar]

All good valid points, unfortunately they are not what most people consider when making a new car selection.

 

[adric22]

I do believe infrastructure is a problem. Also keep in mind how many car buyers do not have a garage to charge in every night. We need more public infrastructure for sure, especially in apartment building parking lots. This is important not only for BEV but also for PHEV. A PHEV is just a regular hybrid unless the owner has a place to charge it. I think most of the people that live in apartments can't afford an EV right now, but within the next year or two with more showing up on the used market, that will change. Infrastructure also plays a psychological role for those thinking about purchasing an EV. They need to know they can charge it on the go, even if it turns out they never do.

 

[jsongster]

As pertains to Apartments... how about 15 to 20 amp regular old 120 for most stalls with a DC QC nearby to get them back to the 20% to go stage... where the 120 would finish easily overnight. Seems like overkill to load each parking stall with 240v at 30 amps or more... in the case of the thirsty teslas...

 

[wsbca]

I do believe infrastructure is a problem. Also keep in mind how many car buyers do not have a garage to charge in every night. We need more public infrastructure for sure, especially in apartment building parking lots. This is important not only for BEV but also for PHEV. A PHEV is just a regular hybrid unless the owner has a place to charge it. I think most of the people that live in apartments can't afford an EV right now, but within the next year or two with more showing up on the used market, that will change. Infrastructure also plays a psychological role for those thinking about purchasing an EV. They need to know they can charge it on the go, even if it turns out they never do.

Fair point. I think I'd call that semi-public, or semi-private infrastructure though (the apartment complex issue)

At one time I thought the psychological effect of having public infrastructure was important, especially before I learned from experience that in practice it isn't, but now I think that's a bit of a strawman argument (made by people who don't want one of the cars for other reasons, or worse, who don't want other people to want the cars for other-other reasons)...what I mean is, I no longer believe the tide will turn simply if there are bunches of charging stations. In my area there are quite a few, which as I noted I don't (need to) use. Certainly enough to address the psychological issue, if it really exists to the exclusion of other reluctance.

 

[Valdemar]

As pertains to Apartments... how about 15 to 20 amp regular old 120 for most stalls with a DC QC nearby to get them back to the 20% to go stage... where the 120 would finish easily overnight. Seems like overkill to load each parking stall with 240v at 30 amps or more... in the case of the thirsty teslas...

The fundamental question is who pays for electricity in apartments and how much? W/o ability to charge on a discounted EV TOU plan it can be very expensive to drive an EV in many places.

 

[epic]

I've only charged at my house with my 110v factory charger,for 13k miles.dont need a public unit yet.