Nissan to double US sales of electric Leaf: Ghosn

[GaslessInSeattle]

perception is going to be 99% of reality. Who was it that said that before the QC's were in some town in Japan, iMiev owners were only using a small % of their cars available range, out of fear of getting stranded. After the install of several QC's, most folks started using much more of their available range, even though they ended up hardly ever using the Quick Chargers... simply knowing they were there had a huge psychological effect. I suspect that once the QC's are in place, people will use them, but more out of novelty at first and then later, only for long trips and more in cold whether, which will probably not be that often per person and I suspect the lines will be minimal if any... in reality, there are not that many cars in our region, even if it doubled or trippled and they are about to unleash a cr*p ton on us little guinea pigs!!!! Also, each QC will have an L2 as well. If a particular spot gets crowded, presumably each person could charge to 80% on the QC and top off with the L2. For a DC QC can do a lot of 80% charges in a day!

Imagine something like this for the Northwest, possibly by summer: http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=213359050108102131982.0004b4a3f0c64a8fa421a&msa=0

As soon as the DC QC network is in place, there could be a feeding frenzy. whenever I tell people that eventually they will be able to charge the car to 80% in 30 minutes, their eyes light up like it's some kind of miracle. The number of QC installs slated for WA and Oregon this spring/summer is staggering, even if half of them get put in place we'll be having a whole different conversation. I think we could see 10,000 sold right here in the northwest once the infrastructure for L3 is here. It seems like being able to drive to Portland from Seattle is some kind of benchmark for folks... even though they won't do it much, they want to know they can.

I think you are correct that being able to charge to 80% in 20 - 30 minutes is going to make the car much more viable. Sales will go up and the press will emphasize that people have to wait in line for hours to use the DC QC.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic but it does seem that there is a coordinated effort by some to stall or kill the electric car.

 

[Luft]

perception is going to be 99% of reality. Who was it that said that before the QC's were in some town in Japan, iMiev owners were only using a small % of their cars available range, out of fear of getting stranded. After the install of several QC's, most folks started using much more of their available range, even though they ended up hardly ever using the Quick Chargers... simply knowing they were there had a huge psychological effect. I suspect that once the QC's are in place, people will use them, but more out of novelty at first and then later, only for long trips and more in cold whether, which will probably not be that often per person and I suspect the lines will be minimal if any... in reality, there are not that many cars in our region, even if it doubled or trippled and they are about to unleash a cr*p ton on us little guinea pigs!!!! Also, each QC will have an L2 as well. If a particular spot gets crowded, presumably each person could charge to 80% on the QC and top off with the L2. For a DC QC can do a lot of 80% charges in a day!

Imagine something like this for the Northwest, possibly by summer: http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=213359050108102131982.0004b4a3f0c64a8fa421a&msa=0

That map is a thing of beauty!

I know that I plan to give the DC QC a go. Heck, I don't even know if my port works because I've never been able to try it!

You are absolutely correct that the QC units can do a lot of charges to 80%. What I heard from people in the UK is that the bottom half of the battery charges very quickly and slows as the battery fills. You can get an 80% charge in 20 to 30 minutes if your battery is completely flat but you may be able to get a 60% charge much quicker. We may find ourselves not bothering to charge to 80% but rather spending just 10 minutes or so to get what we need.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

the map lists the Wendy's in Centralia as a QC stop and i drove thru there yesterday and there is nada as far as site prep. does not look likely it will be in Wendy's parking lot but they are bordering the Outlet Mall parking lot which has a TON of room. that would be a perfect QC area (Burgerville is across the street with a 40 amp Tesla charger) as there is several dozen shops and food within easy walking distance.

getting impatient!! want to try my charge port as well!

 

[kevinkelleher]

I think it will happen easily. I have heard nothing but praise for the car. Our company has lent our Leafs to corporations considering ev charging and made fans out of those who tried it.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Read the qualifier on the side of the map... these are not exact locations. I hear you about the impatience. Really, it would have been ideal if the QC's had gone in before the bulk of cars got here, or at least by winter. It is tempting to think people's impression of EV's so far would be quite different if they could add substantial range within 10 to 30 minutes but maybe folks will still complain that it takes longer than getting gas. Compared to the rest of the country, we are very lucky to be at the epicenter of such an enormous, coordinated effort amongst so many organizations and government.

As for the Tesla chargers, I really am starting to feel disappointed that Tesla is not going along with the pack on the CHAdeMO ports or standard L2 EVSE's. By going in their own direction there is going to be a lot of wasted resources that won't be available to Tesla vehicles and visa versa... really a shame. For L3, in particular, we simply need critical mass to push CHAdeMO and prevent the SAE from simply obscuring a solid way forward. the longer it takes for EV's to have an single L3 standard, the longer it will take for government and private entities to commit the required resources to get them quickly in place, which, IMHO will stall the growth in popularity of EV's overall.

the map lists the Wendy's in Centralia as a QC stop and i drove thru there yesterday and there is nada as far as site prep. does not look likely it will be in Wendy's parking lot but they are bordering the Outlet Mall parking lot which has a TON of room. that would be a perfect QC area (Burgerville is across the street with a 40 amp Tesla charger) as there is several dozen shops and food within easy walking distance.

getting impatient!! want to try my charge port as well!

 

[Herm]

What I heard from people in the UK is that the bottom half of the battery charges very quickly and slows as the battery fills.

This is typical of this battery chemistry, LiFePO4 batteries (such as A123 or Coda) dont have this issue, they dont need to slow down the charge once the batteries reach 80%.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

slowing charge rate is not "required" its done as precaution to avoid overheating/overcharging. the temperature of the batteries causes the parameters of "100% SOC" to change.

slowing the rate insures that a maximum safe charge is obtained without risk of overshooting the target

 

[evnow]

This is typical of this battery chemistry, LiFePO4 batteries (such as A123 or Coda) dont have this issue, they dont need to slow down the charge once the batteries reach 80%.

I've not heard this before ... link ?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

This is typical of this battery chemistry, LiFePO4 batteries (such as A123 or Coda) dont have this issue, they dont need to slow down the charge once the batteries reach 80%.

I've not heard this before ... link ?

ALL Battery chargers for ANY type of chemistry slow their rate of charge as the pack nears charge completion. its not chemistry based in anyway whatsoever.

 

[tbleakne]

>>> We need to better understand the enemy and figure out who is behind the smear campaign. There also needs to be an almost scientific effort made to deal with people's fear of change. some of the psychological barriers come from almost animal instincts that need to be understood and addressed. We need to use of the tools of the science of how people adapt to change, even look at things like "change management". The high rollers who appose the shift to electrification are using every trick in the book to fan people's most base fears... we and the industry needs to become just as adept at doing the opposite.

This is also happening on a whole range of issues, from deniers of climate change to folks who distrust science in general. I agree understanding mass psychology is important, but we can't expect to convince everybody. I believe there are enough reasonable people in the middle who are not totally mesmerized by the pseudo-science fear mongers. Over time more and more folks will see how our Leafs are meeting a practical need now, and they will see that the utility of EVs is expanding with the QC roll-out. As long as the price of gas continues its upward trend (prices right now are $.20-$.30 higher then they have ever been for this time of year) EV acceptance will grow.

 

[TurboFroggy]

I guess the real question is - what do you guys think it will take to sell 24,000 / year (2k / mo) or more? Or what will it take to catch up to the Prius in sales - 10-15k / month 150k / year? It seems that there is currently more than enough demand ~1000 / mo or around 12k / year, but what will it take to double that and beyond?

I think it's going to take a couple things:

1. More range - 30% more range so that 100 mi is easily reachable on the highway and 75 mi is easily reachable on a "long life" charge. 30+ kWh battery pack.
2. Lower price - 20% reduction in price - needs to start in the high $20k range before fed tax credit.
3. QC infrastructure - to enable trips up to 200 mi without hassle.
.

I think the only thing that will take to get to 150K a year is sales is to have 150K cars to sell available. Once Smyrna comes online and Nissan can make 150K a year, they will sell that many, without any changes to the car.
Sure a larger battery, lower price, or QC infrastructure is nice, however not nessarry. Nissan's own customer data from the Leafs "in the wild" show that this isn't nessarry to do any of that. Leaf rarely travel more than 40 miles a day, charge for 2.5 hours at night and they are selling 100% of all the cars they produce at the price they are asking. The data shows that.

 

[TonyWilliams]

This is also happening on a whole range of issues, from deniers of climate change to folks who distrust science in general. I agree understanding mass psychology is important, but we can't expect to convince everybody. I believe there are enough reasonable people in the middle who are not totally mesmerized by the pseudo-science fear mongers.

There's a new museum in east San Diego called the "Creation Museum". Had some dinosaurs out front, looked interesting, and I had an hour to kill with two kids.

When you first walk in the door, they make no mistake that this is science and history according to their religious beliefs. Actually a well done display overall, just a bit skewed on the "facts".

Apparently, there's no global warming. Christians didn't think the earth was flat (it was insinuated that bad "evolutionists" started that "myth" in the 19th century). Volcanic ash from Mount St. Helen's looked exactly like carbon dated dirt going back billions of years, therefore "proves" the earth is whatever age their religion says that it is. I didn't really get to see how they explained away dinosaurs.

Lots of Christian religion based quotes sprinkled throughout. I think I'll go back and find out if their deity supports oil lasting forever, or if EVs are devil cars.

We're getting dumber, collectively, about as fast as the earth is warming.

 

[abasile]

There's a new museum in east San Diego called the "Creation Museum".

I've heard of that museum, and was once invited by some folks at our church to join them and take our kids down there. I politely declined, as I am not thrilled about the Young Earth Creationist movement, and I believe that science and faith need not be at odds. (I happen to be a fan of Reasons to Believe, as while I'm not sure whether I agree with 100% of their conclusions, their goal is to integrate science and faith.)

It can be very hard to argue with someone whose mind is made up with respect to what they consider the only valid interpretation of the many creation-related passages in the Bible. Once one is convinced that modern science doesn't even have the age of the earth right, you can generally forget about convincing them that it is problematic (with respect to global climate) to use millions of years worth of petroleum deposits in the space of decades.

However, in my experience, even Christians who hold to Young Earth views seem to be open to EVs when they consider the geopolitical consequences of oil dependency, particularly the flow of dollars to terrorist sympathizers. Many folks of all persuasions, particularly in southern California, also appreciate technologies that contribute to improvements in local air quality.

 

[Nekota]

Some topics you can investigate and use on adapting religious faith to modern times and what time means ::

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ( The Jesuit and the Skull )

Psalm 90:4

2 Peter 3:8

 

[Luft]

>>> We need to better understand the enemy and figure out who is behind the smear campaign. There also needs to be an almost scientific effort made to deal with people's fear of change. some of the psychological barriers come from almost animal instincts that need to be understood and addressed. We need to use of the tools of the science of how people adapt to change, even look at things like "change management". The high rollers who appose the shift to electrification are using every trick in the book to fan people's most base fears... we and the industry needs to become just as adept at doing the opposite.

This is also happening on a whole range of issues, from deniers of climate change to folks who distrust science in general. I agree understanding mass psychology is important, but we can't expect to convince everybody. I believe there are enough reasonable people in the middle who are not totally mesmerized by the pseudo-science fear mongers. Over time more and more folks will see how our Leafs are meeting a practical need now, and they will see that the utility of EVs is expanding with the QC roll-out. As long as the price of gas continues its upward trend (prices right now are $.20-$.30 higher then they have ever been for this time of year) EV acceptance will grow.

One of the problems that we face is that the real price of gas in this country is being obscured. Most people don't realise that if you add in the direct subsides and the cost of wars that our politicians claim are to preserve our freedom but that conveniently keep the oil flowing for corporate thugs the real cost of gas is probably over $10.00 per gallon.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think the only thing that will take to get to 150K a year is sales is to have 150K cars to sell available. Once Smyrna comes online and Nissan can make 150K a year, they will sell that many, without any changes to the car.
Sure a larger battery, lower price, or QC infrastructure is nice, however not nessarry. Nissan's own customer data from the Leafs "in the wild" show that this isn't nessarry to do any of that. Leaf rarely travel more than 40 miles a day, charge for 2.5 hours at night and they are selling 100% of all the cars they produce at the price they are asking. The data shows that.

As of September 2011 I believe the plan was to make 75k cars for the US market and export 75k cars. But I have my doubts that Nissan can sell even 75K LEAFs a year. You can make all the rational arguments you want about people driving 40 miles a day or less, but a car that one can't just jump into and drive to New York or wherever is a tough sell (that's why the Chevy Volt fans are so smug). Never mind that 60% of households have two or more cars and they could just use the other one (or rent a car for longer trips).

This isn't about reason, it is about having a country full of drivers trained to think that any car should go hundreds of miles and then be refueled in five minutes from one of the vast network of gas stations. In order for short range EVs, such as the LEAF, to be successful it will take a massive education campaign or HUGE increases in the price of gas, or both. Otherwise it is going to be "You paid $35,000 for that car and it will only go 70 miles?! You must be nuts!" They won't even hear talk about tax credits, using domestic electricity versus foreign oil, or the plain fact that most people don't drive more than LEAF range in a day. Never mind that the LEAF is also lots more fun to drive than most ICE cars.

I'm trying to do my part in educating my friends and neighbors but they tend to be much more open minded than the vast majority of people in the USA. EV advocates have a tough job ahead. If I could wave my magic wand and make gas prices $8 or $10 a gallon that would help a lot, but that isn't going to happen (and the resulting economic collapse would kill new car sales anyway).

So, I hope that you are right and I am wrong. But I think those of us here tend to view EVs though rose-colored glasses and need to take a more realistic look at the general ignorance of the American public. (It doesn't help that gas is $2.87/gallon, around here at least.)

My 2¢.

 

[lpickup]

After thinking this through in my head, I suspect we may never see the truly outrageous gas prices we EV owners secretly wish for.

My argument goes roughly like this: if gas prices start to climb the market will simply force people to buy more efficient (and hopefully electric) vehicles which will reduce demand for gas and stabilize prices (sure it won't be an immediate effect but rather longer term). One could make the argument that it's already happening today even without widespread EV use (although a part of me actually believes that gas prices are being held low by oil concerns as a way to threaten the rollout of EVs).

So even if gas prices were to shoot up violently and everyone that could rushed out and bought an EV, demand for gas would drop way down and prices would shoot violently down since after all it is a commodity and controlled by supply and demand. Of course nothing is going to happen that drastically--the market will favor a smoother transition to alternative fuels. But I do think that one way or another it will inevitably lead to alternative fuel vehicles. It will just probably happen at a rate slower than we'll be happy with as EV enthusiasts, and will happen at a rate slow enough that the anti-EV crowd will probably not notice that it's happening until they happen to go buy their next car and see that EVs on the market are in fact the cheaper alternative or at least competitive with gas cars.

That's my theory anyway. But I am most certainly not an economist so I'm sure it's completely wrong!

 

[adric22]

My argument goes roughly like this: if gas prices start to climb the market will simply force people to buy more efficient (and hopefully electric) vehicles which will reduce demand for gas and stabilize prices

I have wondered this as well. I highly suspect the number of Prius and other hybrids on the road has already contributed to lower demand of gasoline. I suspect the EV may help keep the price of gasoline in check, eventually. There aren't enough on the roads yet to matter. But years down the road, as gasoline prices rise, people will run out and buy EVs. Then gasoline prices will settle.. then repeat the cycle.

 

[adric22]

There's a new museum in east San Diego called the "Creation Museum".

I've heard of that museum, and was once invited by some folks at our church to join them and take our kids down there. I politely declined, as I am not thrilled about the Young Earth Creationist movement, and I believe that science and faith need not be at odds.

I'm a Christian and most of the Christians I know believe the Earth is the age that scientists say it is (like 4.7 billion years or whatever the latest estimate is). I do know a few that believe the Earth is a mere 6,000 years old. I've had plenty of arguments with them and it doesn't matter how many facts or how much logic I use, they refuse to see the light. The worst part about all of it is that the Bible doesn't say how old the earth is. In fact, it was men who decided to use the Bible as some frame of reference and the scriptures and very ambiguous in many areas as to the amount of time passed. So I find it highly irritating that people are teaching this junk to kids because it not only goes against science, but it goes against the Bible as well.

 

[smkettner]

Doubling the sales in 2012 should be easy on the demand side.

I still think there is a huge perception that the car will stop without warning given all the media on the limited range. I still hear this from acquaintences or people I bump into etc. This especially applies to single car households that seem to be plentiful.

Seems to me it will take some time to dispell this myth. Although sales could easily grow by 10,000+ each year for the next 10 years. Just my random thoughts.