Nissan : Leaf’s Battery Pack Should Last As Long As The Car

[JPWhite]

Automotive applications require long planning horizons and have high tooling costs. While it's possible, that Nissan will obsolete MY2011 and MY2012 Leafs quickly, I wouldn't bet on it.

The LEAF is a MAJOR departure from the ICE technology that has evolved gradually over the last century or more. In order to get this technology to where it needs to be to make it a mainstream option for everyday drivers, some huge changes are still required.

The challenge to the large auto manufacturers is to get their lead times and tooling costs to the point that such change can occur. Otherwise smaller more nimble companies will acquire the rights to this new technology and leave the older companies in their taillights.

Computer technology changes quite rapidly in comparison to motor vehicles. Motor vehicles are becoming more like rolling computers. For the new technology to be truly liberated, some old ways will have to go the way of the do do. How can they pull off this seeming miracle? Hey that's above my pay grade But Nissan, GM and Ford the their credit appear to be willing to give it the good old college try.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Automotive applications require long planning horizons and have high tooling costs. While it's possible, that Nissan will obsolete MY2011 and MY2012 Leafs quickly, I wouldn't bet on it.

The LEAF is a MAJOR departure from the ICE technology that has evolved gradually over the last century or more. In order to get this technology to where it needs to be to make it a mainstream option for everyday drivers, some huge changes are still required.

The challenge to the large auto manufacturers is to get their lead times and tooling costs to the point that such change can occur. Otherwise smaller more nimble companies will acquire the rights to this new technology and leave the older companies in their taillights.

Computer technology changes quite rapidly in comparison to motor vehicles. Motor vehicles are becoming more like rolling computers. For the new technology to be truly liberated, some old ways will have to go the way of the do do. How can they pull off this seeming miracle? Hey that's above my pay grade But Nissan, GM and Ford the their credit appear to be willing to give it the good old college try.

It's not difficult to go from an ICE to an EV, the drive system is relatively simple and AC motors are not high tech and easily mass produced. It's all about the battery tech, aerodynamics and weight reduction not retooling challenges. Smaller companies are not at an advantage because they are nimble, they are at a huge disadvantage because of economies of scale, funding, infrastructure, distribution, etc., etc. I don't give GM or Ford much credit for dragging their feet in this space. I give Nissan much credit for just doing this and some big strikes for rushing some things and cutting corners when they were advised otherwise. Ford has a late conversion EV and GM has no EV. There is no miracle in this technology, it's been here since the beginning of the auto industry, it's about the battery pack and just making the cars and any auto maker with a good pack could knock out cars quickly.

 

[surfingslovak]

There is no miracle in this technology, it's been here since the beginning of the auto industry, it's about the battery pack and just making the cars and any auto maker with a good pack could knock out cars quickly.

Yes, these companies have the economy of scale on their side, but even seemingly simple things can take a while. As IBM famously said, it would have taken them years to bring the first PC to market and months just to ship an empty box.

I don't want to paint Nissan in a corner, but I believe that Tesla is doing better on the innovation and customer service front. Nissan is better on make-things-affordable front. It takes a while to launch a vehicle like the Leaf, the design needs to be validated, parts sourced and tested, contracts signed, documentation produced, workers, dealers and technicians trained, factory capacity scheduled, etc. Yes, they do it every day and they are good at it. But people are not machines and things take some time.

Unless we are willing to purchase our cars from no-name manufacturers and throw them away every couple of years, I don't see how the consumer electronics metaphor could work. I think that it's more likely that people will keep their cars longer and try to upgrade them, just like they did with early PCs when they cost thousands of dollars.

 

[mdh]

There is no miracle in this technology, it's been here since the beginning of the auto industry, it's about the battery pack and just making the cars and any auto maker with a good pack could knock out cars quickly.

Yes, these companies have the economy of scale on their side, but even seemingly simple things can take a while. As IBM famously said, it would have taken them years to bring the first PC to market and months just to ship an empty box.

I don't want to paint Nissan in a corner, but I believe that Tesla is doing better on the innovation and customer service front. Nissan is better on make-things-affordable front. It takes a while to launch a vehicle like the Leaf, the design needs to be validated, parts sourced and tested, contracts signed, documentation produced, workers, dealers and technicians trained, factory capacity scheduled, etc. Yes, they do it every day and they are good at it. But people are not machines and things take some time.

Unless we are willing to purchase our cars from no-name manufacturers and throw them away every couple of years, I don't see how the consumer electronics metaphor could work. I think that it's more likely that people will keep their cars longer and try to upgrade them, just like they did with early PCs when they cost thousands of dollars.

Tesla has certainly built the iCar. Their non dealer franchise network approach will allow them to have an Apple-store like experience, rather than the out-of-date shopping experience found in today's dealer network. This is both good and bad. It will be very costly for Tesla to expand, beyond the NFL cities and it looks like it will be a long time before they turn profitable or need to worry about employee pensions. I think their approach of working with Toyota and other companies is brilliant as this should allow them to bring in some high margin business to offset some of their expenses, etc.

 

[Herm]

It's not difficult to go from an ICE to an EV, the drive system is relatively simple and AC motors are not high tech and easily mass produced. It's all about the battery tech, aerodynamics and weight reduction not retooling challenges.

Well said, aerodynamics and weight reductions is also well understood, batteries are the things left to work on.. and $199 for a glorified extension cord.

 

[EVDRIVER]

There is no miracle in this technology, it's been here since the beginning of the auto industry, it's about the battery pack and just making the cars and any auto maker with a good pack could knock out cars quickly.

Yes, these companies have the economy of scale on their side, but even seemingly simple things can take a while. As IBM famously said, it would have taken them years to bring the first PC to market and months just to ship an empty box.

I don't want to paint Nissan in a corner, but I believe that Tesla is doing better on the innovation and customer service front. Nissan is better on make-things-affordable front. It takes a while to launch a vehicle like the Leaf, the design needs to be validated, parts sourced and tested, contracts signed, documentation produced, workers, dealers and technicians trained, factory capacity scheduled, etc. Yes, they do it every day and they are good at it. But people are not machines and things take some time.

Unless we are willing to purchase our cars from no-name manufacturers and throw them away every couple of years, I don't see how the consumer electronics metaphor could work. I think that it's more likely that people will keep their cars longer and try to upgrade them, just like they did with early PCs when they cost thousands of dollars.

Tesla has certainly built the iCar. Their non dealer franchise network approach will allow them to have an Apple-store like experience, rather than the out-of-date shopping experience found in today's dealer network. This is both good and bad. It will be very costly for Tesla to expand, beyond the NFL cities and it looks like it will be a long time before they turn profitable or need to worry about employee pensions. I think their approach of working with Toyota and other companies is brilliant as this should allow them to bring in some high margin business to offset some of their expenses, etc.

I think you mean Toyota working with Tesla on a deal that makes sense for Toyota's NUMI issues and making them look EV friendly all while doing cleaver marketing to help Tesla and themselves. It's a smart back scratching deal that makes them both look good and created the perception Tesla is doing better then they are and somehow helping Toyota with EV tech (BS) and that Tesla is such a leader Toyota can't miss out, more BS. This is all about fixing each companies issues in a smart way.

 

[EVDRIVER]

There is no miracle in this technology, it's been here since the beginning of the auto industry, it's about the battery pack and just making the cars and any auto maker with a good pack could knock out cars quickly.

Yes, these companies have the economy of scale on their side, but even seemingly simple things can take a while. As IBM famously said, it would have taken them years to bring the first PC to market and months just to ship an empty box.

I don't want to paint Nissan in a corner, but I believe that Tesla is doing better on the innovation and customer service front. Nissan is better on make-things-affordable front. It takes a while to launch a vehicle like the Leaf, the design needs to be validated, parts sourced and tested, contracts signed, documentation produced, workers, dealers and technicians trained, factory capacity scheduled, etc. Yes, they do it every day and they are good at it. But people are not machines and things take some time.

Unless we are willing to purchase our cars from no-name manufacturers and throw them away every couple of years, I don't see how the consumer electronics metaphor could work. I think that it's more likely that people will keep their cars longer and try to upgrade them, just like they did with early PCs when they cost thousands of dollars.

There is no difference then any other Nissan in terms of the build since the R&D is done, they were rushing the car to market and it shows in many areas. The PC analogy does apply to the EV now, the pack is the PC and without an affordable upgrade the entire car becomes the PC because the next EV is going to be a new car with a better pack. If in two years pack capacity doubles (hypothetical) and there is no affordable replacement for the leaf then a new car is a far better option. Tesla has better CS because they have far fewer customers and a boutique product, comparing Tesla and Nissan products is not really relevant at this point.

 

[surfingslovak]

Point taken, but how do you explain the long lead time for Leaf deliveries then? Perhaps I'm misreading this, but my guess is that they signed up quite a few vendors and sourced new parts for the Leaf, recruited a lot of new people, likely from the outside, bent a few processes and established a new business unit. Whenever you do something like that in a large organization, you cause delays. The Leaf is by definition a completely new product for Nissan. To continue the unfortunate consumer electronics metaphor, it's like a tablet or smart phone to a PC manufacturer. A new product line.

I think I get your PC metaphor, but but do you take the higher cost of the Leaf into account? A car represents much larger investment than a PC for both the buyer and the manufacturer. They both have a stronger incentive to amortize their investment. Does Nissan have to offer upgrades for the Leaf? Of course not, but it could be cheaper for them to keep things similar if not compatible. If they cannot sell you a brand new car in two years, perhaps they can sell you a new charger, which would be an added benefit.

I'm not sure if I follow your rationale on Tesla and Nissan. Yes they are approaching the market from different ends, but both have EVs that sold in similar volume as of this writing. Yes, I would want better CS on a $100K product than on a $35K product, but their approach reflects not only different price points, but also different company culture.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Point taken, but how do you explain the long lead time for Leaf deliveries then? Perhaps I'm misreading this, but my guess is that they signed up quite a few vendors and sourced new parts for the Leaf, recruited a lot of new people, likely from the outside, bent a few processes and established a new business unit. Whenever you do something like that in a large organization, you cause delays. The Leaf is by definition a completely new product for Nissan. To continue the unfortunate consumer electronics metaphor, it's like a tablet or smart phone to a PC manufacturer. A new product line.

I think I get your PC metaphor, but but do you take the higher cost of the Leaf into account? A car represents much larger investment than a PC for both the buyer and the manufacturer. They both have a stronger incentive to amortize their investment. Does Nissan have to offer upgrades for the Leaf? Of course not, but it could be cheaper for them to keep things similar if not compatible. If they cannot sell you a brand new car in two years, perhaps they can sell you a new charger, which would be an added benefit.

I'm not sure if I follow your rationale on Tesla and Nissan. Yes they are approaching the market from different ends, but both have EVs that sold in similar volume as of this writing. Yes, I would want better CS on a $100K product than on a $35K product, but their approach reflects not only different price points, but also different company culture.

LEAF delays were the result of rushing a car to a lightly tested production line and then a natural disaster that slowed parts delivery, many auto makers had reduced production rates as a result of the earthquake. Tesla does not make a mass produced EV yet, selling 1600 or so Total roadsters since day one does not remotely compare to the almost 10K cars Nissan has sold in under a year with supply issues and destroyed inventory. If you want to took at the amortization rate of the LEAF look at the lease numbers even though that is not the point since the auto makers and consumers have little impact on market values unless they conspire to keep the improvements stable. MY PC analogy is simple, if the pack on a 2013 Leaf is 50% better than a replacement pack on a 2011 with the same capacity is $15K (likely higher) then the 2011 model ends up with little value. The LEAF is an cheap econo box with a very low cost drive system, all the cost is in the pack. The motor, transaxle and related parts are not costly, not event at dealer retail prices. Without affordable pack upgrades the cars value will sink and I don't expect Nissan to offer even moderately priced pack upgrades in the next few years. The only upside is the slow delivery and lack of other EVs on the market. Don't expect any affordable Nissan charger upgrade either, not on a 2011 LEAF that is or ANY firmware updates to the NAV or instruments that will change any functions on the dash, expect updated clusters and radio units in the future.

 

[chijayhawker]

New story about future battery technology. Check it out...see what you think.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-energy-storage-device-recharge-electric.html

 

[EVDRIVER]

New story about future battery technology. Check it out...see what you think.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-energy-storage-device-recharge-electric.html

This has already been posted. These types of stories are frequent over the past 5-7 years and not one has resulted in a commercially released product. These little PR bits can be posted here for years but until there is an actual working product in a car it is only research.

 

[HighDesertDriver]

LEAF delays were the result of rushing a car to a lightly tested production line and then a natural disaster that slowed parts delivery, many auto makers had reduced production rates as a result of the earthquake. Tesla does not make a mass produced EV yet, selling 1600 or so Total roadsters since day one does not remotely compare to the almost 10K cars Nissan has sold in under a year with supply issues and destroyed inventory. If you want to took at the amortization rate of the LEAF look at the lease numbers even though that is not the point since the auto makers and consumers have little impact on market values unless they conspire to keep the improvements stable. MY PC analogy is simple, if the pack on a 2013 Leaf is 50% better than a replacement pack on a 2011 with the same capacity is $15K (likely higher) then the 2011 model ends up with little value. The LEAF is an cheap econo box with a very low cost drive system, all the cost is in the pack. The motor, transaxle and related parts are not costly, not event at dealer retail prices. Without affordable pack upgrades the cars value will sink and I don't expect Nissan to offer even moderately priced pack upgrades in the next few years. The only upside is the slow delivery and lack of other EVs on the market. Don't expect any affordable Nissan charger upgrade either, not on a 2011 LEAF that is or ANY firmware updates to the NAV or instruments that will change any functions on the dash, expect updated clusters and radio units in the future.

EVDRIVER and I are generally on the same page, but it is good to remember that "Better is the enemy of good." While I fully expect future editions of the Leaf to have different capabilities and possibly lower costs, the 2011 model is good and will meet our needs as long as we have a back-up ICE for the longer trips. At some point, a company has to lock down the configuration and put the product on the sales floor. Would I like the ability to upgrade? Sure, but even that would have its costs and associated timeline.

Perhaps Ford will eventually be given kudos for taking their time and finally marketing their ideal Focus EV, but that is unlikely, even given the benefit of the doubt for good intentions. Better stuff will always become available after they make the production decision. In the meantime, they take (deserved) hits for total silence on features, prices, and schedules since their car's "debut" at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show. OK, I will admit that "total silence" is an overstatement because they have released some of the sounds the system software will generate. :lol:

I, for one, am glad that Nissan has been willing to get this ball rolling again. No, the first product is not perfect, and yes, there will certainly be valued improvements in the coming years, but I am not going to question their decision-making processes or motivations if they are moving positively in the right direction.

 

[JPWhite]

New story about future battery technology. Check it out...see what you think.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-energy-storage-device-recharge-electric.html

Very interesting. So then an EV becomes more like an ICE. It can be 'filled up' in minutes rather than hours, providing for 'limitless range' given the infrastructure to charge the vehicle as you drive around. i.e. like at a 'service station' for want of a better word.

 

[highcountryrider]

Pretty cool. Will likely require a whole different charging
setup - with lots of power.

 

[EVDRIVER]

LEAF delays were the result of rushing a car to a lightly tested production line and then a natural disaster that slowed parts delivery, many auto makers had reduced production rates as a result of the earthquake. Tesla does not make a mass produced EV yet, selling 1600 or so Total roadsters since day one does not remotely compare to the almost 10K cars Nissan has sold in under a year with supply issues and destroyed inventory. If you want to took at the amortization rate of the LEAF look at the lease numbers even though that is not the point since the auto makers and consumers have little impact on market values unless they conspire to keep the improvements stable. MY PC analogy is simple, if the pack on a 2013 Leaf is 50% better than a replacement pack on a 2011 with the same capacity is $15K (likely higher) then the 2011 model ends up with little value. The LEAF is an cheap econo box with a very low cost drive system, all the cost is in the pack. The motor, transaxle and related parts are not costly, not event at dealer retail prices. Without affordable pack upgrades the cars value will sink and I don't expect Nissan to offer even moderately priced pack upgrades in the next few years. The only upside is the slow delivery and lack of other EVs on the market. Don't expect any affordable Nissan charger upgrade either, not on a 2011 LEAF that is or ANY firmware updates to the NAV or instruments that will change any functions on the dash, expect updated clusters and radio units in the future.

EVDRIVER and I are generally on the same page, but it is good to remember that "Better is the enemy of good." While I fully expect future editions of the Leaf to have different capabilities and possibly lower costs, the 2011 model is good and will meet our needs as long as we have a back-up ICE for the longer trips. At some point, a company has to lock down the configuration and put the product on the sales floor. Would I like the ability to upgrade? Sure, but even that would have its costs and associated timeline.

Perhaps Ford will eventually be given kudos for taking their time and finally marketing their ideal Focus EV, but that is unlikely, even given the benefit of the doubt for good intentions. Better stuff will always become available after they make the production decision. In the meantime, they take (deserved) hits for total silence on features, prices, and schedules since their car's "debut" at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show. OK, I will admit that "total silence" is an overstatement because they have released some of the sounds the system software will generate. :lol:

I, for one, am glad that Nissan has been willing to get this ball rolling again. No, the first product is not perfect, and yes, there will certainly be valued improvements in the coming years, but I am not going to question their decision-making processes or motivations if they are moving positively in the right direction.

I give credit to Nissan for the speed to market yet it is clear they actually reduced the quality of the car to save money and rushed the telematics to the market, this is clear. An extra $1K in the car would have made it a far better vehicle. If Ford does the focus drive and pack well the car is already much nicer then the LEAF with its poor interior, paint. NAV/Stereo, etc etc. I can't believe how many corners they cut not to mention on the charger. There is a reason the LEAF NAV is different than their other cars and stripped down of features and functionality. They also knew about doing SOC and they ignored that but I fully expect that to be there in a year or two. I'm a bit shocked at some of the mistakes they made, even the ones that would not have cost more money. If you want a glimpse at the product development mentality at Nissan just wonder how the eco package appliqué around the drive selector made it to final approval :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[jkirkebo]

If Ford does the focus drive and pack well the car is already much nicer then the LEAF with its poor interior, paint. NAV/Stereo, etc etc. I can't believe how many corners they cut not to mention on the charger. There is a reason the LEAF NAV is different than their other cars and stripped down of features and functionality. They also knew about doing SOC and they ignored that but I fully expect that to be there in a year or two. I'm a bit shocked at some of the mistakes they made, even the ones that would not have cost more money. If you want a glimpse at the product development mentality at Nissan just wonder how the eco package appliqué around the drive selector made it to final approval :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Well, I for one would never consider the Focus for several reasons. One being the battery placement, stuffed in the trunk so there are very little usable space left. The other important reason is no CHAdeMO port, which means no long-distance driving. The 6.6kW charger is totally uninteresting to us. Slow charging will be overnight anyway, on the road 6.6kW is pitiful against Nissans ~45kW CHAdeMO port.

NAV and stereo don't concern me much, we don't need the NAV and only listen to radio. I would have preferred a darker interior option, but the fabric is nice (I hate leather). I hope the paint holds up though.

Telematics ? As long as the remote start of heating and cooling from our iPhones work, I don't care about the rest. SOC would be nice but I'll get a kit instead. No big deal.

Basically, they got the important parts right, loads of interior space and fast charging possibilities.

 

[surfingslovak]

LEAF delays were the result of rushing a car to a lightly tested production line and then a natural disaster that slowed parts delivery, many auto makers had reduced production rates as a result of the earthquake. Tesla does not make a mass produced EV yet, selling 1600 or so Total roadsters since day one does not remotely compare to the almost 10K cars Nissan has sold in under a year with supply issues and destroyed inventory. If you want to took at the amortization rate of the LEAF look at the lease numbers even though that is not the point since the auto makers and consumers have little impact on market values unless they conspire to keep the improvements stable. MY PC analogy is simple, if the pack on a 2013 Leaf is 50% better than a replacement pack on a 2011 with the same capacity is $15K (likely higher) then the 2011 model ends up with little value. The LEAF is an cheap econo box with a very low cost drive system, all the cost is in the pack. The motor, transaxle and related parts are not costly, not event at dealer retail prices. Without affordable pack upgrades the cars value will sink and I don't expect Nissan to offer even moderately priced pack upgrades in the next few years. The only upside is the slow delivery and lack of other EVs on the market. Don't expect any affordable Nissan charger upgrade either, not on a 2011 LEAF that is or ANY firmware updates to the NAV or instruments that will change any functions on the dash, expect updated clusters and radio units in the future.

Thanks for your response, I appreciate it. Yes, I understand that Nissan is a mass manufacturer and Tesla a small boutique manufacturer at this point.

I don't want to be a stickler for detail, I was merely explaining that the reason for drawing comparisons between the Leaf and the Roadster. Both have manufactured in some volume and are the only credible and popular EVs on the market. I believe that Leaf VINs are in the 6,000 range, not all that far from Roadster's production numbers. If Nissan sold 50,000 or more EVs, then yes, they would be in an entirely different space than any other EV manufacturer ever was.

The press often pits the Leaf against the Volt, which would be a more adequate comparison if the Volt did not have a range extender. Anyway, that's at least my take, I'm happy to let it rest.

But back to your PC analogy. Yes, if I bought an expensive PC with 2GB of RAM and the manufacturer released a new model in two years with 4GB or RAM, I would expect that I can upgrade my PC to be on par with the new model. If I was not able to do that, I would be pissed. And if the new PC sold for about the same amount, the resale value of my used machine would suffer. With that I agree.

However, I would expect the PC manufacturer to understand that it's a really bad idea to orphan its early customers. It might be OK with an item that's comparatively cheap, but not with a car, which most people consider to be a major investment.

What would you advise us to do? Dump the Leaf while we can given Nissan's projected future product strategy?

I wouldn't know of any credible EV entering the market in the near future. I like Tesla's Model S, but it's considerably more expensive and probably not a good fit for the role of a daily commuter car. I'm not a fan of what Ford has been doing and the Miev is quite limited and not that much cheaper than the Leaf. I like the plugin Prius, but its electric range might leave lot to be desired. I'm still considering the Volt, but I would expect it to depreciate even faster than the Leaf. The i3 will likely be nice and BMW finally seems to take alternative propulsion seriously, but it will likely be quite expensive.

I'm curious what your thoughts were on the competitive landscape for EVs.

 

[abasile]

I wouldn't know of any credible EV entering the market in the near future.

Don't forget about Mitsubishi's upcoming "i" car, cheaper and smaller than the LEAF with less range. It wouldn't work for us as a family car, but could be a great option for commuters who want to go electric.

 

[surfingslovak]

Don't forget about Mitsubishi's upcoming "i" car, cheaper and smaller than the LEAF with less range. It wouldn't work for us as a family car, but could be a great option for commuters who want to go electric.

Yes, I agree. Thanks for pointing that out. I actually priced out a Miev (or the "i" in the US market) and it was only marginally cheaper than the Leaf. I did not feel that it was a competitive offering and judging by the number of reservations, the public interest has been tepid.

 

[davewill]

Well, I'm convinced that once we get the Prius PHEV, and the Ford and Mitsubishi BEVs, the comparisons between Volt and LEAF should dwindle. The EVs will compete with each other for the drivers willing to go 100% electric, and the PHEVs will compete with each other within the old universe of hybrid drivers (well-to-do and green). There will be some overlap (those who want EVs but can't get over the range issues), but I don't think there will be so many.

The Tesla remains the owner of it's own niche until we get some competing luxury/performance BEVs.