evnow said:
TomT said:
The next few years...
evnow said:
And "foreseeable future" means ?
Ok. Let us have that bet. Here is my guess
- Within 1 year after the first production Tesla "base" gen 3 vehicle is delivered, we'll have another manufacturer put out an EV with the range similar to the base gen 3.
- By similar range I mean > base gen 3 range - 10 miles or 200 EPA miles, whichever is smaller
- The EV will have a non-Tesla drivetrain (so, not like Rav 4EV)
If I'm right, you will donate $50 to a non-profit of my choice, otherwise I'll donate $50 to a non-profit of your choice.
Right, all potential BEV OEMs are not going to produce in the near future a BEV
with a range > than 100 miles and are waiting because:
1. There's a collusion between the OEMs to not produce until after the Tesla "E" is viable.
2. All battery suppliers have a energy capacity limit on purchases to all BEV OEMs except Tesla.
They hope to be part of Tesla's Giga battery partnership along with Panasonic.
3. The US federal government has limited all BEV OEMs to a max battery capacity because of military
needs, except Tesla because it was the 1st to have a range greater than 200 miles. And additionally
because the military is in development with Tesla for BEV type of military tank.
4. There's presently a very short supply of key battery elements, e.g. lithium, cobalt, & graphite,
and just Panasonic owns its raw materials suppliers.
5. All BEV OEM's upper managements are heavily invested in Tesla stock.
6. All BEV OEM's engineering departments lack the key BEV knowledge & patents that Tesla has.
They're still trying to reverse-engineer the Tesla MS without much luck, e.g. the AC induction
motor and its drive electronics.
7. Panasonic entered into non-compete agreements with other battery suppliers to limit
their battery production to US OEMs so Panasonic & Tesla can be the first with high volume
$35K 200 mile BEV.
8. Solar City has committed to buy all of the battery suppliers capacity, except Panasonic,
for the next 3-4 years for its energy storage plans.
9. All OEM BEV strategic marketing managers, except Tesla's, fail to understand the 'real' BEV
market potential.
10. The oil companies are heavily invested in the all the US OEM auto manufacturers, except
Tesla, are all on their board of directors, and are fearful of a volume BEV with a range of
200 miles.
Or maybe this:
Given the present cost per kWh ($250-$300), most/all OEMs don't perceive a viable volume market
for a 200 mile range BEV based on a battery cost of $12K-$15K. The added cost, presently, for the
"volume" $35K target BEV market would be $6K-$7K, which wouldn't sell based on economics
versus hybrids, e.g. Prius, Honda, Volt, etc, and would price that 200 mile range BEV at $40K+.
That would then result in a typical 3yr lease cost over $500 per month.