Lease Exit Plan

[EVDRIVER]

The $40K infiniti EV will be an option in 2014.
I'm expecting it will have 100 miles of EPA range.

I doubt it, not at that price that is not too far from a loaded up LEAF or a stripped Volt.

The sad thing is that ALL the compliance cars are better than the LEAF.. because the manufacturers are not limited by having to make a profit. The compliance cars are a better deal..

1. RAV4 : Tesla powertrain and true 100 mile range
2. Fit: uses the superior (but heavy) Toshiba SCiB lithium titanate cells
3. Focus: refrigerated battery pack
4. 500: superior efficiency and range with a smaller battery
5. Smart: Daimler quality and low cost

Did I forget anyone?

1) Not so great interior and at a higher cost but killed drive and acceleration.
2) A fit, really? eh.
3) Can't even sell these conversions.
4) Wait to see how this goes, but promising. Tony was never good with wiring
5) No thank you, no way. Sad as this was developed as an EV form day one.

6) Not really good arguments so far. The FIAT has the most potential but again is a much smaller vehicle in a different class. You forgot the BMW with it's high priced lease and issues.

 

[evnow]

I have to say that I am surprised there are that many people who are considering a buyout of a lease on an EV version 1.X

A lot of people get attached to their cars ... My wife was sad to see (my !) car go.

 

[johnqh]

The $40K infiniti EV will be an option in 2014.
I'm expecting it will have 100 miles of EPA range.

I doubt it, not at that price that is not too far from a loaded up LEAF or a stripped Volt.

The sad thing is that ALL the compliance cars are better than the LEAF.. because the manufacturers are not limited by having to make a profit. The compliance cars are a better deal..

1. RAV4 : Tesla powertrain and true 100 mile range
2. Fit: uses the superior (but heavy) Toshiba SCiB lithium titanate cells
3. Focus: refrigerated battery pack
4. 500: superior efficiency and range with a smaller battery
5. Smart: Daimler quality and low cost

Did I forget anyone?

1) Not so great interior and at a higher cost but killed drive and acceleration.
2) A fit, really? eh.
3) Can't even sell these conversions.
4) Wait to see how this goes, but promising. Tony was never good with wiring
5) No thank you, no way. Sad as this was developed as an EV form day one.

6) Not really good arguments so far. The FIAT has the most potential but again is a much smaller vehicle in a different class. You forgot the BMW with it's high priced lease and issues.

I think the 500e and Smart were born to be better EV than ICE. Being tall, battery fits under the car without taking passenger room. Being commuter cars, range is less of an issue.

Smart is a pure commuter car. I think most buyers will go for EV if they have a garage. The problem is not with EV, but the entire fortwo line. Only people in dense cities with extremely difficult parking would consider it. That means either NYC or SF.

500 has a broader appeal. Despite being more expensive, it offers a much better car.

I don't think the other compliance cars have much appeal. Fit and Focus don't have the cargo space. Rav4 is too expensive.

 

[RonDawg]

I have to say that I am surprised there are that many people who are considering a buyout of a lease on an EV version 1.X

A lot of people get attached to their cars ... My wife was sad to see (my !) car go.

Some people are also not all that interested in the latest and greatest, and having to pay for it. If you live in an area where battery degradation is not a concern, and the residual is reasonable, why not?

When I turn in my 2012 SV in January 2016, I might even go for a used 2012 SL (solely for the QC port) if the price is right and the battery is still in good condition.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I have to say that I am surprised there are that many people who are considering a buyout of a lease on an EV version 1.X

A lot of people get attached to their cars ... My wife was sad to see (my !) car go.

Some people are also not all that interested in the latest and greatest, and having to pay for it. If you live in an area where battery degradation is not a concern, and the residual is reasonable, why not?

When I turn in my 2012 SV in January 2016, I might even go for a used 2012 SL (solely for the QC port) if the price is right and the battery is still in good condition.

I "supposedly" live in that area of "concernlessness" and I am not feeling it. in retrospect, I see that the LEAF will last about 7-8 years if used as I expected to use it when I first got it and for the first 19 months, that has held up. but QC has added another dimension to what I can do and its really showed how the range is not adequate for me.

now, am I saying I regret my LEAF decision? oh no! could not be as far from the truth. But it does tell me that I need a QC car with 50% more range. but that is all part of the evolution of EVs and another characteristic of that evolution will be twofold

1) the car with the longer range
2) maturation of the QC network.
3) the ability to incorporate 2 EVs into the household

but right now, I am seeing the timeframe for usefulness here being just about the 3 year lease and I will get every mile of my 45,000 in when I turn it in. Conservatively averaging 10 cents per mile over my current gas option which means I can equate a $4500 benefit but degradation is real and my decision could be changed in 6 weeks (or less hopefully) when Nissan makes their long anticipated battery pricing announcement

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

but right now, I am seeing the timeframe for usefulness here being just about the 3 year lease and I will get every mile of my 45,000 in when I turn it in. Conservatively averaging 10 cents per mile over my current gas option which means I can equate a $4500 benefit but degradation is real and my decision could be changed in 6 weeks (or less hopefully) when Nissan makes their long anticipated battery pricing announcement

+1
If the battery is only good for seven years and it's $7k to replace it, the financial case for this car looks weak at best compared to a modest gas car, even just for local usage.

 

[ERG4ALL]

In our case the lease is up in June 2014. Based on our 2011 being an early arrival (#404) our buy out does not make sense after Nissan's price reduction. Thus, my choice would be leasing a 2014 model. However, I found out that we can extend our lease for 6 months and wait for the 2015 model which may have increased range over the 2014 model. We'll just have to wait and see which option makes more sense.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

In our case the lease is up in June 2014. Based on our 2011 being an early arrival (#404) our buy out does not make sense after Nissan's price reduction. Thus, my choice would be leasing a 2014 model. However, I found out that we can extend our lease for 6 months and wait for the 2015 model which may have increased range over the 2014 model. We'll just have to wait and see which option makes more sense.

what?? how does that work? would it be an extension of the original agreement? if so, I would not do that (waaay too much money!) or could the extension be renegotiated?

 

[apvbguy]

1) the car with the longer range
2) maturation of the QC network.
3) the ability to incorporate 2 EVs into the household

I posted a similar conclusion, I would like an EV in the LEAF's price range or so that could deliver 100 to 150 mile ranges regardless of speed, heater or A/C usage coupled with a big improvement to the charging network. I think that many of us who are coming into the EV fold are becoming less of the early adopters and more mainstream and if the auto manufacturers hear us they can develop a product that the masses will accept. right now the Tesla is out of reach cost wise for most and the LEAF just doesn't deliver on the range.
These growing pains are part of the reason that I took a LEAF on a 2 year lease.

 

[johnqh]

Tesla's batter has higher density (more kWh/kg). Can we dream that Nissan can offer a replacement 36kwh battery pack for $7200 by 2020?

 

[Stanton]

Tesla's batter has higher density (more kWh/kg). Can we dream that Nissan can offer a replacement 36kwh battery pack for $7200 by 2020?

I don't think it's a dream: I wouldn't be surprised if this was on the Leaf's product road map. They are obviously committed to the technology/car/platform. It makes sense to offer replacements/upgrades; the only question is price.

 

[johnqh]

Tesla's batter has higher density (more kWh/kg). Can we dream that Nissan can offer a replacement 36kwh battery pack for $7200 by 2020?

I don't think it's a dream: I wouldn't be surprised if this was on the Leaf's product road map. They are obviously committed to the technology/car/platform. It makes sense to offer replacements/upgrades; the only question is price.

There are some predictions that it will be about $200/kwh by 2020, and $160/kwh by 2025.

 

[pointlomadave]

I'm in the same boat as planet4ever with a 400+ montly lease on my Leaf. To add insult to injury Nissan dropped the price like 6k on the Leaf. No way I'm going to pay a 15k residual when a new one is like 19k. I'm also wondering about the battery life and thinking it is best to give it back to the dealer to figure out what to do with it.

It's going to be intersting when the lease terms are up on the Leafs delivered in 2011. I think there are a lot of folks with high montly payments and high residuals that are just going to dump the car on the dealer. I wonder if they will be offering deals to entice people to keep them.

Yeah, could be interesting. Although we'll see. The $2,500 CA rebate in CA will be depleted in about 3-4 days completely, and will be out of funding for the rest of FY2013. It may be a while before the program gets re-funded. So, that will help used 2011 lease return cars be that much more attractive relative to a new one. But yeah, maybe Nissan USA will have to help dealers out a bit, or give incentives for customers to keep them when the price of the "S" model like I just bought is so cheap! Although I got mine with the $1300 fast charger option with the 6.6KW charger, and the base model S only has the 3.3KW charger for 2013. After driving mine around for 10 days, I wouldn't want any slower charging than the 6.6KW charger can provide!

 

[edatoakrun]

..The $2,500 CA rebate in CA will be depleted in about 3-4 days completely, and will be out of funding for the rest of FY2013. It may be a while before the program gets re-funded...

Another $5 million seems to be available.

But that amount won't last long at current rebate levels.

For Immediate Release: May 8, 2013....

SACRAMENTO – The California Energy Commission today unanimously adopted the 2013-2014 Investment Plan Update to support the development and use of green vehicles and alternative fuels. The update sets funding priorities for the approximately $100 million in annual state funds under the Commission's Alternative and Renewable Fuels and Vehicle Technology (ARFVT) Program, created by Assembly Bill 118...

The 2013-2014 plan update allocates $100 million to projects in the following areas:
$23 million for biofuels production and supply, with an emphasis on fuels made from waste-based and other low-carbon, sustainable materials.
$20 million for hydrogen fueling infrastructure. An estimated 68 stations are needed to support the anticipated rollout of these vehicles in 2015-2017. Roughly 24 stations are built or in development.
$15 million for medium- and heavy-duty electric truck and hybrid vehicle demonstration projects.
$12 million for natural gas vehicle incentives. These incentives help to pay the difference between the cost of alternative-fuel vehicles and conventional vehicles. Buyers must agree to register and operate the vehicles in California at least 90 percent of the time for three years.
$7 million for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, coordinated to fulfill the Governor's ZEV Action Plan. Workplace, fleet and multi-unit dwelling projects will be given priority.
$5 million for light-duty plug-in electric vehicle rebates to meet high demand for the Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, administered by the California Air Resources Board.
$4 million to emerging opportunities. This allocation is not specifically tied to any single fuel or technology type, with a priority for projects that can leverage federal funding.
$3.5 million for regional alternative fuel readiness and planning, building on previous projects supporting these efforts.
$2 million for centers for alternative fuels and advanced vehicles to support collaborative efforts that promote innovation, demonstrate new technologies, leverage venture capital and federal funds, and provide workforce training.
$2 million to workforce training and development.
$1.5 million for natural gas fueling infrastructure to support growing use of these alternative fuel vehicles by many entities, including school districts...

http://www.energy.ca.gov/releases/2013_releases/2013-05-08_investment_plan.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RonDawg]

I "supposedly" live in that area of "concernlessness" and I am not feeling it. in retrospect, I see that the LEAF will last about 7-8 years if used as I expected to use it when I first got it and for the first 19 months, that has held up. but QC has added another dimension to what I can do and its really showed how the range is not adequate for me.

now, am I saying I regret my LEAF decision? oh no! could not be as far from the truth. But it does tell me that I need a QC car with 50% more range. but that is all part of the evolution of EVs and another characteristic of that evolution will be twofold

1) the car with the longer range
2) maturation of the QC network.
3) the ability to incorporate 2 EVs into the household

but right now, I am seeing the timeframe for usefulness here being just about the 3 year lease and I will get every mile of my 45,000 in when I turn it in. Conservatively averaging 10 cents per mile over my current gas option which means I can equate a $4500 benefit but degradation is real and my decision could be changed in 6 weeks (or less hopefully) when Nissan makes their long anticipated battery pricing announcement

You may not feel it, and I can understand why you don't, but not everybody is the same. If I decide to buy my Leaf, as long as it is paid off I will continue to drive that car until it no longer works for my needs. For me, that would mean a battery with a minimum 20 mile range. But I also understand that a 20 mile range will not work for many people.

The biggest reason I don't plan on buying out my lease is because I feel the residual is wildly optimistic. But, if something happens here or abroad and suddenly gas spirals upward sharply, and demand is far outstripping supply causing used ones to go up in value, then perhaps the car might be worth that. But that's over 2-1/2 years away.

 

[johnqh]

There is no need to discuss.

If residual > fair market price, don't buy even if you like it, because you can get one used in same condition for less.

If residual < fair market price, buy it even if you don't want it, because you can sell it and get a profit.

Buying to not, it has nothing to do with whether you like the car or not. It is a purely financial decision.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

There is no need to discuss.

If residual > fair market price, don't buy even if you like it, because you can get one used in same condition for less.

If residual < fair market price, buy it even if you don't want it, because you can sell it and get a profit.

Buying to not, it has nothing to do with whether you like the car or not. It is a purely financial decision.

The only caveat is if your going to get a used one it may be of some value to get the one you had since new; you know how it has been treated. I've never minded having a used car but I like to be the one who used it.

 

[evnow]

Some people are also not all that interested in the latest and greatest, and having to pay for it. If you live in an area where battery degradation is not a concern, and the residual is reasonable, why not?

When I turn in my 2012 SV in January 2016, I might even go for a used 2012 SL (solely for the QC port) if the price is right and the battery is still in good condition.

I think 2012 cars are esp. bad for buying at the end of lease - given high MSRP. Nothing to do with latest & greatest - but pure financials.

I won't be surprised if your residual is not much lower than a brand new Leaf in 2016.

 

[johnqh]

There is no need to discuss.

If residual > fair market price, don't buy even if you like it, because you can get one used in same condition for less.

If residual < fair market price, buy it even if you don't want it, because you can sell it and get a profit.

Buying to not, it has nothing to do with whether you like the car or not. It is a purely financial decision.

The only caveat is if your going to get a used one it may be of some value to get the one you had since new; you know how it has been treated. I've never minded having a used car but I like to be the one who used it.

True, but how much is it worth? A couple of K? I bet you wouldn't buy it if the difference between residual and fair market price is over 3K.

 

[evnow]

The only caveat is if your going to get a used one it may be of some value to get the one you had since new; you know how it has been treated.

It might be better to get a car from a cold place in this case, though.