adric22
Well-known member
I thought this deserved a thread of its own, even though I know it has been discussed to various degrees in other threads. I know some people in the media are beginning to use Leaf (and Volt) sales as proof there is no demand for EVs. And I generally shrugged that off being that production was the limiting factor. However, now people are pointing out that there is at least one Leaf available for sale at most dealers now. That might suggest we might have come to a plateau or even a decline in Leaf sales. However, I'm more optimistic than that. I'd like to throw out some things to consider:
So these are the reasons I have to be optimistic. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and so it is impossible to say what may happen a year or two down the road. Any of these things could further hinder sales of EVs:
Anyway, there you have it.. Discuss.
- Leaf is still not available in all Markets. So current sales are still only a portion of worldwide demand.
- The Leaf has sold over 8,000 units in the USA this year, despite the restricted supply chain, and the year isn't over yet. By comparison, the Toyota Prius only sold 5,600 units in the USA the first year it went on sale, and only 15,600 the next year.
- Just one vehicle sitting on a lot is not an indication of poor sales. How many Toyota Camry's are sitting on your local Toyota dealer's lot?
- The general public is still mostly unaware that such a vehicle exists.
- Many buyers are hesitant to buy a first-year model, much less a first-of-its-kind. The Prius is a good example. Once it became well known and trusted and the myths of the batteries finally were busted, people began to buy the car like crazy.
- The economy is slow for all car sales right now.
- Sales of the Leaf will be affected by gasoline prices. Right now gasoline isn't at $4.00 anymore, but it will eventually return.
- I've heard that while some dealers may have a Leaf on the lot, they are jacking up the sticker price, meaning people would have to choose to pay the extra money, or wait several months to get one. Again, making the Leaf less attractive.
- Nissan is still building the new production plant in the USA with plans to build 150,000 Leafs per year. Surely they wouldn't have these plans if they didn't believe that the demand would be there for it.
- Charging infrastructure is still in its infancy. Most mainstream buyers will hold off until more public charging stations are available.
So these are the reasons I have to be optimistic. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and so it is impossible to say what may happen a year or two down the road. Any of these things could further hinder sales of EVs:
- Gasoline prices could drop to $2 per gallon or less.
- Somehow somebody might prove (or at least convince people) that Global Warming isn't true.
- The world economy could continue to collapse further, making purchases of vehicles in the Leaf's price range very limited.
Anyway, there you have it.. Discuss.