LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[pkulak]

The new management might be better at keeping a secret and or the 2016 is going to appear late. The 100 and 150 mile range duo has been rumored for more than a year. Also possible they scrapped those plans and are now going for 200+ mile range.

In order of likeliness:

1. More range is coming in 2017, 2016 will come out with zero fan-fair in September with a couple settings changed on the center console and nothing else.

2. Nissan really wants to beat everyone else to the 150-mile punch, but can only do it some time mid-2016 at the earliest. In this case, we'll just hear nothing about the 2016 model until it's released 3-6 months into 2016.

3. 2017 is the model refresh, but LG has the batteries ready now and Nissan is going to slap them into the current Leaf's battery bay a year early to double its range.

99. 2016 is the model refresh. Whole new Leaf with 200 miles announced in 6 months!

 

[DanCar]

Found this article interesting: http://ecomento.com/2015/01/28/nissan-to-double-leaf-range/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
At the conference, Nissan Japan chief Takao Katagiri said to expect a “more efficient EV with an improved battery,” during the company’s 2016 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2017. ... That equates to roughly 282 miles range, although all of these figures are based on the overly-optimistic Japanese testing cycle.

282 mile range on Japanese testing cycle equates to what on the EPA range test?
142 miles currently for Japanese range, 84 for EPA. 84/142=x/282. x=(84/142)*282
x = 166.8 miles.

Carlos says: more than range doubling is coming in phases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7u3NxpwR3c" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
1:20 it starts.

I'll translate this to mean that 150+ mile range car is coming in ruffly a year and 200+ mile car is coming towards end of 2017 as a 2018 model year leaf, so 2.5 years from now.

 

[jhm614]

Found this article interesting: http://ecomento.com/2015/01/28/nissan-to-double-leaf-range/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
At the conference, Nissan Japan chief Takao Katagiri said to expect a “more efficient EV with an improved battery,” during the company’s 2016 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2017. ... That equates to roughly 282 miles range, although all of these figures are based on the overly-optimistic Japanese testing cycle.

282 mile range on Japanese testing cycle equates to what on the EPA range test?
142 miles currently for Japanese range, 84 for EPA. 84/142=x/282. x=(84/142)*282
x = 166.8 miles.

Carlos says: more than range doubling is coming in phases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7u3NxpwR3c" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
1:20 it starts.

I'll translate this to mean that 150+ mile range car is coming in ruffly a year and 200+ mile car is coming towards end of 2017 as a 2018 model year leaf, so 2.5 years from now.

Or it could mean a bump to 110 - 120 on MY16 and a bump to 150 - 160 on MY17 and then the bump to 200 at the Leaf 2 mid-cycle refresh...

 

[tkdbrusco]

I'd be thrilled if they put a small bump in the existing leaf! This would means that the new packs would likely fit into our cars and we'd have the option to upgrade in the future to a longer range battery. This would help resale quite a bit!

 

[fotajoye]

I'd be thrilled if they put a small bump in the existing leaf! This would means that the new packs would likely fit into our cars and we'd have the option to upgrade in the future to a longer range battery. This would help resale quite a bit!

The question of upgraded batteries for used Leafs is in play. So far Nissan policy is to offer upgraded batteries as replacements for the early models using an adapter.

Nissan should continue that policy and provide an upgraded replacement battery for their used Leafs. The average road life of used cars is about 16 years. So, you will surely need to replace the battery sometime along the way; maybe more than once. If they don't provide a longer range battery, some other company will...perhaps even Tesla.

BTW, BMW is on record with a policy of not providing upgraded batteries for their i3 model. That takes them off my list for anything they sell. Methinks they are way too arrogant.

In other news, Musk says a real range of 200 miles is necessary for EVs:
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-comments-minimum-range-electric-cars/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I'm certainly hoping for a new battery for my LEAF to have higher capacity than the original. Something along the lines of 36kWh would be totally OK with me... 48 would be awesome. With 36kWh, it would still have the current model's capacity when it degrades to 70%, and I could go to charging every other day, which would probably also help with longevity to some extent (more time at a lower charge state). I suspect I could go 10 years easy on a 36kWh battery and still find it useful (heck, assuming the 36kWh battery degrades like a '12 MY battery, it would be pretty similar to my current battery after 10 years, so I could probably go well beyond that!)

 

[tkdbrusco]

I'm certainly hoping for a new battery for my LEAF to have higher capacity than the original. Something along the lines of 36kWh would be totally OK with me... 48 would be awesome. With 36kWh, it would still have the current model's capacity when it degrades to 70%, and I could go to charging every other day, which would probably also help with longevity to some extent (more time at a lower charge state). I suspect I could go 10 years easy on a 36kWh battery and still find it useful (heck, assuming the 36kWh battery degrades like a '12 MY battery, it would be pretty similar to my current battery after 10 years, so I could probably go well beyond that!)

I'd be willing to bet that if they do offer an upgraded battery it wold be in the realm of 30-32kWh. They probably done the math on it and are trying to find a point where (1) they don't piss off the existing buyers too much, (2) prolong the usability of the car, (3) not be too pressed to make drastic modifications to fit in a huge battery, (4) keep the replacement price reasonable, and (5) not cannibalize the Gen2 sales.

Another 6-8kWh would yield about 28 miles of extra range and put the Leaf Gen1 at 112 or so of range. This to me would be the sweet spot (from a business perspective on Nissan's end). Given a slight decline in battery costs this pack would likely add about $1000-$1250 to their existing cost of a replacement battery, maybe in a couple years they could offer a pack like this for the same $5500 they are charging now for the current pack. With BMW stating they will only provide roughly 20% increased range on the i3 in the next few years, the Fiat at about 85mi, the SOUL EV at 93mi and the Golf at about the same, I don't see why slapping a 36kWh pack in the leaf gen1 would make any sense for them.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Fair enough... I'd probably still be pretty happy with a 30kWh battery. I guess if they change the battery too much, they may need a new charging unit in there to handle the new chemistry properly.

 

[tkdbrusco]

Fair enough... I'd probably still be pretty happy with a 30kWh battery. I guess if they change the battery too much, they may need a new charging unit in there to handle the new chemistry properly.

I don't think they'd need a new charging unit, it would just become tougher for some of those with 11' & 12' model years to charge it with 3.3kw/h overnight during off-peak power times, but not a deal breaker by any means.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Yeah, off-peak is nice and all, but having less worry about range is priceless. I'd happily pay the extra for the hour or two that don't fit into the off-peak if it means that I don't need to worry about whether or not I need to stop somewhere to fill up.

 

[fotajoye]

At one time, the best idea was to buy a low-mileage, two to three year old car with a warranty. However, prices for used EVs are upside down; a used Leaf costs about $15K and a refreshed battery at the time of purchase another $6K( and you should replace the battery) for a total of about $21K. With incentives and discounts from the dealer, a new Leaf can be purchased in some states for less than that. This problem is currently certainly consequential.

In my mind, the new Leaf should be about $22K; If you compare it to a Nissan Versa(about $15K) by adding in the price of fuel based on 13,000 miles a year @ $4 a gallon for five years and the price of a Versa plus 5 years of fuel(about $7,400) is about $22K. Pretty close to what a new Leaf sells for when you consider you are buying the fuel(the battery) up front. In the short run, I think the 2016 Leaf and its battery will stay about the same price, about $22K.

In the long term, I look for the Leaf to not only include a significant increase in range each generation but also to include a good cost reduction as ongoing incentives will dry up when Leaf sales meet the target of 200,000 EVs. And, with Republicans in charge of Congress there is good cause to believe incentives will not be restored.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

At one time, the best idea was to buy a low-mileage, two to three year old car with a warranty. However, prices for used EVs are upside down; a used Leaf costs about $15K and a refreshed battery at the time of purchase another $6K( and you should replace the battery) for a total of about $21K. With incentives and discounts from the dealer, a new Leaf can be purchased in some states for less than that. This problem is currently certainly consequential.

OK... but that's a rather skewed stat. My used LEAF (which wasn't the cheapest in my area) was $12.5K, and the battery is still at 86% SOH. Why would I say "Oh wow, I need to get a new battery!" when the current battery has only gone down that far in 2.5 years, and will degrade less than that same amount again over the next few years? I'll replace it when it needs replacing, thanks It depends on the climate in which the car is used. (And here in IL, we don't have state incentives for EVs anymore, so good luck getting an SV/SL for anywhere near that price...)
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm just saying that the "in some states" in your statement is really the crux of your argument here.

 

[Henchman]

At one time, the best idea was to buy a low-mileage, two to three year old car with a warranty. However, prices for used EVs are upside down; a used Leaf costs about $15K .

Agreed.
We bought our used 2011 leaf last month. 19k miles, with the DC port for $13k at Carmax.
We initially had decided on a 2012 with 19k miles for $14k, until I did my homework and learned about the DC port. We returned it for the 2011 model.

 

[fotajoye]

At one time, the best idea was to buy a low-mileage, two to three year old car with a warranty. However, prices for used EVs are upside down; a used Leaf costs about $15K and a refreshed battery at the time of purchase another $6K( and you should replace the battery) for a total of about $21K. With incentives and discounts from the dealer, a new Leaf can be purchased in some states for less than that. This problem is currently certainly consequential.

OK... but that's a rather skewed stat. My used LEAF (which wasn't the cheapest in my area) was $12.5K, and the battery is still at 86% SOH. Why would I say "Oh wow, I need to get a new battery!" when the current battery has only gone down that far in 2.5 years, and will degrade less than that same amount again over the next few years? I'll replace it when it needs replacing, thanks It depends on the climate in which the car is used. (And here in IL, we don't have state incentives for EVs anymore, so good luck getting an SV/SL for anywhere near that price...)
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm just saying that the "in some states" in your statement is really the crux of your argument here.

The points are to be take "in general," there are exceptions and transactions differ in specifics.

Sounds like you received a fair deal and the car currently meets your needs; 86% SOH in 2.5 years sounds good; how many bars are you down and sounds like you understand that battery degradation is not a linear function and depends on many factors like temperature, how many quick charges are made, how the car is driven, etc. Does the Nissan battery warranty also applies to your car? There have been cases of people not so lucky, buying used cars with reset computers who find when the computer catches up, they are down one, two or three bars on the indicator; that's one reason, I favor starting with a fresh battery.

 

[desiv]

.. I favor starting with a fresh battery.

I think everyone would love to start with a fresh battery.
But at $6k, it will most likely be an "as needed" option.
And most statistics seem to show that "most" people won't need them.
Even with degradation, the Leaf looks to be able to meet the needs of many/most commuters.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1097701_aging-electric-car-batteries-can-still-offer-useful-range-report" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, every person's case is different. I'm not in that "mant/most" group myself. Not because of where I live in regards to temperature (which is a big factor), but in regards to commute range for me.
But it's nice to know that group is there for when I plan to upgrade to a new model. ;-)

desiv

 

[ishiyakazuo]

The points are to be take "in general," there are exceptions and transactions differ in specifics.

Sounds like you received a fair deal and the car currently meets your needs; 86% SOH in 2.5 years sounds good; how many bars are you down and sounds like you understand that battery degradation is not a linear function and depends on many factors like temperature, how many quick charges are made, how the car is driven, etc. Does the Nissan battery warranty also applies to your car? There have been cases of people not so lucky, buying used cars with reset computers who find when the computer catches up, they are down one, two or three bars on the indicator; that's one reason, I favor starting with a fresh battery.

I've got 12/12 bars, and I believe my car has full warranty coverage. I've had the car for over 3 weeks now, and I've seen nothing to indicate that the battery readings have been tampered with -- if anything, 86% SOH on a car driven 2 years in northern Michigan seems to be worse than many, but c'est la vie. I checked the VIN out before I bought it and found that it was an off-lease car from Michigan, so the battery degradation seems in line with expectations for that climate.
I think everyone who buys used should do their due diligence and find out as much about the car before they lay down the funds to buy it, regardless of the type of vehicle.

.. I favor starting with a fresh battery.

I think everyone would love to start with a fresh battery.
But at $6k, it will most likely be an "as needed" option.
And most statistics seem to show that "most" people won't need them.
Even with degradation, the Leaf looks to be able to meet the needs of many/most commuters.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1097701_aging-electric-car-batteries-can-still-offer-useful-range-report" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, every person's case is different. I'm not in that "mant/most" group myself. Not because of where I live in regards to temperature (which is a big factor), but in regards to commute range for me.
But it's nice to know that group is there for when I plan to upgrade to a new model. ;-)

Yup. My commute is 40 miles r/t, and I rarely use the LEAF except for my commute and a little bit of tooling around to buy groceries and stuff near my house, so the range is WELL within my needs (I often only charge to 80%, and down to ~35F temps, I've not yet gotten to LBW once, no matter how much extra I drive around). A coworker near my office has a 240V outlet in his garage as well, so I could stop there and charge up during the day in the winter months if I have to, so I really only NEED a bit over 20 miles of range during that time to make my commute work. Because of that, and because I still have an ICE for those really cold days where I won't have opportunity to charge (when my wife can take the LEAF out and go around town, even without too much charge), I'm quite OK with my battery situation for years to come.
All that being said, I will definitely want to upgrade some day. The only question that remains is, will I swap out the LEAF for another, higher range EV, or get a new battery? I'm hoping to get something with 200mi. range eventually, because to me, that's about the extent of the length of the trips I take by car. As long as I can charge up on the other end somehow, I'm pretty well set with that.

 

[fotajoye]

Et al:
Agree with all posts; seems everyone is as satisfied with their car as I am with mine. I think one day you will see the Leaf as common as the Versa is today and at about the same price and same percentage of sales. But. first Nissan has to solve the range issues and I think they will make good progress with the next generation. Can't wait!

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Same here!
To be honest, I think with Tesla announcing that the Roadster (a car that hasn't been sold for something like 3-4 years) is getting a 400 mile range upgrade, Nissan better come up with some range upgrade for existing LEAFs, or people will jump ship to Tesla for sure when Model III comes out, because of a precedent for taking care of early adopters.

 

[desiv]

Same here!
To be honest, I think with Tesla announcing that the Roadster (a car that hasn't been sold for something like 3-4 years) is getting a 400 mile range upgrade, Nissan better come up with some range upgrade for existing LEAFs, or people will jump ship to Tesla for sure when Model III comes out, because of a precedent for taking care of early adopters.

Well, it's still not really fair to compare Tesla to almost any other EV out there.
Yes, there's the price difference..
People who buy luxury cars expect better support, and should get it..

But I don't think people expect that from a lower end car.
Even a nicer high end ICE, no one is going to expect Lexus to provide a newer engine that gets better mileage after 4 years. ;-)

And, it remains to be seen if Tesla can hit their date and price for the Model III.
Not saying they can't, but history shows them to be a bit iffy on those points..

That said, if they can, or get close... They're in a great position marketwise..

I still think there's a chance tho, that by then, Nissan will be able to release a car that's about $10k less than the Model III. (Assuming Tesla hits their mark)
If so, that negates a lot of "benefits" in the minds of people looking to get something more affordable.

If Tesla can hit 200 miles for $30k, and Nissan can hit 150-ish for $20k, I would think Nissan will still have a market.
The real competition for Tesla I see being someone like Chevy with the Bolt (or whatever) as it's looking to be similar range/price as the M3. And I think people would choose Tesla over Chevy given that situation.
(Which is why I think Chevy wants to get theirs out before Tesla can.)

But who knows..

desiv

 

[ishiyakazuo]

But that's exactly my point. People will buy Tesla over Nissan or Chevy all day long based on their historical support for their cars, without thinking "hey, maybe they got this support because it cost over $100k" so I hope Nissan is mindful of that and throws a bone to 1st gen LEAF owners to help them build that same level of loyalty.
Tesla is saying they're going to hit $35k before incentives on Model III... whether or not that's true, I have no idea, but if I was Nissan or Chevy, I'd be hurrying to get that next model out!