LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[LeftieBiker]

It's also quite misleading to call climate conditions that exist in about 30% of the US and maybe 20% of Europe "edge cases." It would be more accurate to say that Nissan designed the Leaf battery pack for no more than half of the climates in which it is being sold.

 

[SageBrush]

It's also quite misleading to call climate conditions that exist in about 30% of the US and maybe 20% of Europe "edge cases." It would be more accurate to say that Nissan designed the Leaf battery pack for no more than half of the climates in which it is being sold.

And even then, only if you accept the useful life of a LEAF to be 5-8 years.

<<shakes head sadly>>

 

[jhm614]

I don't think there were any aerodynamic improvements in the 200 to 228km jump, which was primarily due to a battery increase. However, it was the ultimate range of the car according to the JC08 standard, which included aerodynamics. Just reiterating you can't factor in more efficiency improvements. For what it is worth, my 134 mile estimate included aerodynamic improvements.

D'oh! You are right, I was conflating the two arguments. I thought your 134 mile range was a based on 37 kWh battery? The range will probably end up being between your 134 mile prediction and my 155 mile guess. Maybe 145 for the win?

Either way, hopefully we see additional info leak over the next 120 days.

 

[SageBrush]

I was conflating the two arguments.

Not so much conflating, as double dipping ;-)

 

[phr00t]

I don't think there were any aerodynamic improvements in the 200 to 228km jump, which was primarily due to a battery increase. However, it was the ultimate range of the car according to the JC08 standard, which included aerodynamics. Just reiterating you can't factor in more efficiency improvements. For what it is worth, my 134 mile estimate included aerodynamic improvements.

D'oh! You are right, I was conflating the two arguments. I thought your 134 mile range was a based on 37 kWh battery? The range will probably end up being between your 134 mile prediction and my 155 mile guess. Maybe 145 for the win?

Either way, hopefully we see additional info leak over the next 120 days.

Yeah, my estimate is based on a ~37kWh battery, which included a source that pointed to that battery size using information provided by Nissan. Correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't seen any evidence beyond speculation of a 40kWh battery. The 60kWh battery was an early prototype & recent hints have been pushing that option further away. That is why I estimated with the 37kWh battery.

145 miles is possible with the information we have, but on the high end of the scale. I'm still thinking 134-140 miles.

For what it is worth, I'm highly considering getting a Hyundai Ioniq EV, which I think will ultimately be a (slightly) better value than waiting for the Leaf 2.0.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'll guess 160 mile range based on 4 miles per kWh and 40 kWh usable battery.
After a year or two of use ? THAT is a much harder question to answer.

It's very easy to answer, the range will be essentially the same. Just like the 2014 through 17 cars have little if any range loss.

No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

PS How much is Nissan paying you to post this nonsense?

OrientExpress is a known shill for BS concerning the LEAF. He originally claimed that the 2011-2012 LEAF didn't have objectionable loss of battery capacity, and had harsh words for anybody that challenged that notion (I've saved his comments from that period, knowing his head will pop up infrequently to spout nonsense).

There were a few others like OrientExpress, but most of them have aquienced to the facts. He is a broken record of misinformation.

You'll find this rhetoric that he used in 2012 to be consistent today:

OrientExpress

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=221444#p221444

The next time OrientExpress gives us the next LEAF revelation, just consider these previous revelations about the battery:


1. "So far, all of the posts on this subject are speculation, hearsay, innuendo, and opinion."

2. "In reading through all the cases, I really don't see a problem"

3. "I have to believe that if there was an issue, it would have been detected and solved by now"

4. This is just a problem with "several vocal individuals."

5. There is so much confidence, he agreed to swap his battery!!! >>> "sure, come on by, and we will put the cars up on blocks and switch them out."

6. There are as many cars with reduced capacity as there are with ">>excess<< capacity and they are both edge cases". I sure as heck haven't seen a mention of that >>excess<< case(s) !!!!

7. "If there is an actual issue with a customer's battery, then it will be a simple routine warranty repair."

8. This is just "battery FUD that is concentrated in some posts... Kuddos to Nissan for a job well done."

9. Hey, it's only "17 cars out of a population of 25000 is .00068.... or in layman's terms, an edge case."

10. "for the 0.00074074074074 of LEAF owners..... investigate the myriad of options other than complaining to get satisfaction for your transportation needs."

11. Still no problem; just charge more!!! "'the only complaint being that they have to be "filled-up" more often"

12. "Of the fewer than 10 posters that make up the the vast majority of the posts in the 148+ pages of this thread, I'm probably the most rationale one of the bunch."

13. It's a little battery problem because "in the larger scheme of things this is just a fart in the breeze."

14. "8 or so posters that have been the key proponents of this... with some interpretative data that they have been able to glean from some homebrew devices". Hey, Phil, when will you have my homebrew device ready?

15. And then the insults got more pronounced... "Nothing smells right when you don't have a sense of smell". And then there's: "
One of the sure signs of dementia is paranoia and being convinced that everything smells bad."

16. All of the previous statements are because "I have a deeper understanding of how failure analysis in the automotive industry works."

17. So, it might be a software problem... "What if this whole thing is just a SW bug that is not accurately reporting the capacity of the battery?" A bit later, that was upgraded to, "reputable highly-placed sources suggest that a software bug". Naturally, no data to support this, or any other claim.

18. Some very specific and detailed data from most detailed person on the forum is just tossed aside with... "your methodology does not support your conclusions". This is from somebody that really hasn't provided ANY data.

19. Another "theory" with no data to support it (nor was any offered), "only those cars that have been driven in a severe and high-mileage mode trigger the condition."

20. The best for last, as this post is an all time classic!!! "very vocal and seemingly hysterical schizophrenic ADD owners ... they don't represent the vast majority of LEAF owners.... for whatever reason are unable to deal with the situation and would rather freak out. Speculation is rampant, and facts are few... fan the flames of discontent in a very trollish manner... for many that is not good enough and demand immediate satisfaction... Other than assigning wet nurses to the most vocal and impatient of those that are dissatisfied, it is hard to say what more than can be done."

 

[GetOffYourGas]

It's very easy to answer, the range will be essentially the same. Just like the 2014 through 17 cars have little if any range loss.

No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

PS How much is Nissan paying you to post this nonsense?

OrientExpress is a known shill for BS concerning the LEAF. He originally claimed that the 2011-2012 LEAF didn't have objectionable loss of battery capacity, and had harsh words for anybody that challenged that notion (I've saved his comments from that period, knowing his head will pop up infrequently to spout nonsense).

There were a few others like OrientExpress, but most of them have aquienced to the facts. He is a broken record of misinformation.

You'll find this rhetoric that he used in 2012 to be consistent today:

OrientExpress

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=221444#p221444

The next time OrientExpress gives us the next LEAF revelation, just consider these previous revelations about the battery:


1. "So far, all of the posts on this subject are speculation, hearsay, innuendo, and opinion."

2. "In reading through all the cases, I really don't see a problem"

3. "I have to believe that if there was an issue, it would have been detected and solved by now"

4. This is just a problem with "several vocal individuals."

5. There is so much confidence, he agreed to swap his battery!!! >>> "sure, come on by, and we will put the cars up on blocks and switch them out."

6. There are as many cars with reduced capacity as there are with ">>excess<< capacity and they are both edge cases". I sure as heck haven't seen a mention of that >>excess<< case(s) !!!!

7. "If there is an actual issue with a customer's battery, then it will be a simple routine warranty repair."

8. This is just "battery FUD that is concentrated in some posts... Kuddos to Nissan for a job well done."

9. Hey, it's only "17 cars out of a population of 25000 is .00068.... or in layman's terms, an edge case."

10. "for the 0.00074074074074 of LEAF owners..... investigate the myriad of options other than complaining to get satisfaction for your transportation needs."

11. Still no problem; just charge more!!! "'the only complaint being that they have to be "filled-up" more often"

12. "Of the fewer than 10 posters that make up the the vast majority of the posts in the 148+ pages of this thread, I'm probably the most rationale one of the bunch."

13. It's a little battery problem because "in the larger scheme of things this is just a fart in the breeze."

14. "8 or so posters that have been the key proponents of this... with some interpretative data that they have been able to glean from some homebrew devices". Hey, Phil, when will you have my homebrew device ready?

15. And then the insults got more pronounced... "Nothing smells right when you don't have a sense of smell". And then there's: "
One of the sure signs of dementia is paranoia and being convinced that everything smells bad."

16. All of the previous statements are because "I have a deeper understanding of how failure analysis in the automotive industry works."

17. So, it might be a software problem... "What if this whole thing is just a SW bug that is not accurately reporting the capacity of the battery?" A bit later, that was upgraded to, "reputable highly-placed sources suggest that a software bug". Naturally, no data to support this, or any other claim.

18. Some very specific and detailed data from most detailed person on the forum is just tossed aside with... "your methodology does not support your conclusions". This is from somebody that really hasn't provided ANY data.

19. Another "theory" with no data to support it (nor was any offered), "only those cars that have been driven in a severe and high-mileage mode trigger the condition."

20. The best for last, as this post is an all time classic!!! "very vocal and seemingly hysterical schizophrenic ADD owners ... they don't represent the vast majority of LEAF owners.... for whatever reason are unable to deal with the situation and would rather freak out. Speculation is rampant, and facts are few... fan the flames of discontent in a very trollish manner... for many that is not good enough and demand immediate satisfaction... Other than assigning wet nurses to the most vocal and impatient of those that are dissatisfied, it is hard to say what more than can be done."

Still, wouldn't it be nice to live in his world? Where everything related to Nissan EVs is "bullet-proof" and Nissan will soon make an EV that's better than their gassers in every way? What a wonderful dream, why would you want to wake up?

 

[OrientExpress]

Well the poster child for how to have a grudge is back. <sigh>

We all love Tony, anyway.

 

[OrientExpress]

Still, wouldn't it be nice to live in his world? Where everything related to Nissan EVs is "bullet-proof" and Nissan will soon make an EV that's better than their gassers in every way? What a wonderful dream, why would you want to wake up?

That's a great thought, so let's drill down on that question, how do you think Nissan could accomplish this? Their EV is pretty close to being bullet-proof today, and they still need to sell gasser to pay the bills, but what should they be doing for their future EVs to achieve this vision completely?

I know one way they will accomplish that with LEAF Next. They have already announced that the new LEAF will have ProPilot which will have Level 2 autonomous capabilities. As they add Level 3 & 4 capabilities, you might be able to sleep onboard your LEAF while it takes you to your destination.

 

[LeftieBiker]

A grude? Is that a small, hairy man of Celtic descent?

 

[OrientExpress]

A grude? Is that a small, hairy man of Celtic descent?

Damm autocorrect!

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Still, wouldn't it be nice to live in his world? Where everything related to Nissan EVs is "bullet-proof" and Nissan will soon make an EV that's better than their gassers in every way? What a wonderful dream, why would you want to wake up?

That's a great thought, so let's drill down on that question, how do you think Nissan could accomplish this? Their EV is pretty close to being bullet-proof today, and they still need to sell gasser to pay the bills, but what should they be doing for their future EVs to achieve this vision completely?

I know one way they will accomplish that with LEAF Next. They have already announced that the new LEAF will have ProPilot which will have Level 2 autonomous capabilities. As they add Level 3 & 4 capabilities, you might be able to sleep onboard your LEAF while it takes you to your destination.

First, I'm not convinced that the durability of the newest Leafs are on par with Nissan's gas cars. There are opinions in this thread but so far facts are lacking. You have stated more than once that the 2017 Leaf is "bullet-proof", but it's basically your opinion against everyone else's.

The next is the question of range. I personally believe that Tesla has the right equation. Cars with 200+ miles of autonomous range coupled with a robust and growing quick charge infrastructure.

Which leads me to the next question - infrastructure. People will buy a gas car without thinking twice about where to refuel. They know that there will be a gas station nearby when the low fuel light comes on. Nissan is making strides in this area by partnering with various networks (via the NCTC program). They also have the locations searchable in the built-in nav. But both leave a lot to be desired. There are very obvious improvements that Nissan could make.

ProPilot is a differentiating product. It could certainly help sell the Leaf if done well. If done poorly, it could be a hindrance. We'll see.

 

[SageBrush]

(I've saved his comments from that period, knowing his head will pop up infrequently to spout nonsense).

Ouch

 

[ydnas7]

back on topic,

it should be obvious, but the statements were in Japanese and about cost basis and the bulk of the market. No where did it not imply that 60kWh were not coming 2018, just that the Japanese market would be buying the 40ish kWh version in bulk.

To put a finer point on it, 40kWh cells per kWh will be cheaper than 60kWh per kWh up to a certain scale/point in time, thereafter it switches. From the graph it seems for Nissan that point is about 2020.

lets take a hypothetical scenario,
40kWh cells at $130/kWh = $5,200
vs
60kWh cells at $200/kWh = $12,000

thats about $7,000 price difference (close to fed rebate in amount)

Nissan's 60kWh cells need scale to become price competitive, so they must start somewhere, that is, there will be LEAFs sold with them, but the market will be buying the 40kWh in preference.

It also seems obvious that once 60kWh reach the $90/$100 per kWh threshold, they will be sold in an EV equivalent of the Qashqai/Rogue Sport/Dualis CUV. That is where mass scale is expected

 

[ydnas7]

Renaults Nissan's perspective, where they sell all their cars
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/europe-march-2017.html

Zoe, LEAF, Outlander PHEV
were the top 3 sellers in Europe 2017, beating more expensive cars like BMW i3 and Tesla S, and (GM/Opel Volt Ampera etc)

the risk is, they just won't prioritize 60kWh enough.

 

[edatoakrun]

...the risk is, they just won't prioritize 60kWh enough.

Putting a ~60 kWh battery pack in a reasonably priced BEV today only solves one problem (range anxiety!) that is largely imaginary for most BEV drivers, while it creates another major and very real problem for every driver of that BEV.

Bolt gets EVs halfway to mainstream


Two problems have relegated electric vehicles to a sliver of the market for years: EVs offer less convenience than internal-combustion vehicles, and they are priced considerably higher.

I got into a Chevrolet Bolt last week, and, as promised, it solves — well, mostly solves — problem No. 1.

... As other companies offer EVs with range comparable to the Bolt, the range problem for daily use seems likely to melt away.

That doesn’t eliminate problem No. 2: The cost.

This is particularly troublesome as EV and plug-in hybrid sales for GM and other automakers approach the aggregate 200,000 unit shut-off for the $7,500 federal tax credit. A $7,500 de facto price increase would be a significant obstacle for mainstream buyers.

In part, it comes down to how much you value electric drive. To me, if you disregard the electric drivetrain, the Bolt feels like a nice $20,000-ish small car. But the model I drove stickered at over $43,000.

So the score for EVs at this point? One problem down, one problem to go.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170501/BLOG06/170509982/bolt-gets-evs-halfway-to-mainstream

 

[OrientExpress]

The current price of a 60 kWh car is very problematic for cars like the Bolt. It just isn't attractive as a $40K+ car. Here in California some Chevy dealers have over 150 cars sitting on their lot

A 150 mile 40kWh car for under $30k without incentives is very doable and I suspect he LEAF 2 will be just that car.

 

[ydnas7]

The current price of a 60 kWh car is very problematic for cars like the Bolt. It just isn't attractive as a $40K+ car. Here in California some Chevy dealers have over 150 cars sitting on their lot

A 150 mile 40kWh car for under $30k without incentives is very doable and I suspect he LEAF 2 will be just that car.

a used 60kwh is very problematic for any 40kWh vehicle, but that is a 2020 issue.

its chicken and egg, but for Nissan to get 60kWh packs cheaply, they simply will need to initially get 60kWh packs expensively. An overlap of both being available, but much better value being for the cheaper pack,

USA 2020, there won't be financing (only predator rates) available for new 40kWh vehicles because the depreciation will be so horrendous due to used 60kWh competitors being available.
CARB states is another matter, they'll gift mid range EV to you.

 

[WetEV]

46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

"46,000 miles 12 bars". Sure, I've seen this, and better.

"Same range as new". I doubt it. Even in cooler Seattle, Leafs lose range.

"No warranty issues ever!" Counting the TCU?

 

[OrientExpress]

My car had a range of 78 miles when new, and I still can get 78 miles today. Never used carwings, and never had the TCU done. The car belongs to Nissan, I'm just renting it. If they want to get it done, they can be my guest.