July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[evnow]

The model change over may not cost Leaf ANY sales at all..we've never heard that they intend to close the assembly line-- The changes that are coming in 2012 do not require any special new tooling.

While that is possible, we can't rule out changes they are doing that aren't advertised. Even without any big model changes, the plant may shutdown for a couple of weeks for maintenance. We don't notice this for other cars since they aren't supply constrained.

 

[muus]

OTOH, Leaf deliveries may go down as MY11 model winds down and MY12 models may not get delivered soon.

I sure hope not, I can just see the headlines now. "Leaf sales drop as the market for pure EV becomes saturated - Volt sales continue to climb" What's wrong with the media in the US. :roll:

 

[tps]

The Volt doesn't need to freaking charge! It has a gas engine.

Yes, but to stay in EV mode, it needs the charge worse than a LEAF. The problem is the whole Volt philosophy, that one has an EV with an almost uselessly short EV range which requires the user to charge at every opportunity or run in not very efficient hybrid mode. To my way of thinking, the Volt is going to reinforce EV range anxiety since it has an EV range so short it would probably work for very few as a pure EV. Unlike the LEAF, which teaches many of its users that 100 miles is more than enough for almost all of their needs, the Volt will teach it's drivers that 40 miles is not enough, so they'll end up learning that ICE backup is necessary for a practical EV. Many car buyers will not seriously consider an EV simply because not very many others own them, so we need more EVs on the roads. While the Volt is perceived by most as an EV, I'm just afraid that it will send the wrong message WRT the range anxiety issue, which is a major stumbling block EVs must overcome.

I have a daily RT commute of 35 miles with no side trips, so I'd likely be running Volt's EV mode dry every day. With the LEAF, I'll likely charge to 80% and have some room to spare! NJ was a Volt rollout state; I could have gone across the bridge long ago and bought a Volt if I had the desire, but I've suffered through Nissan's very long rollout because I believe in their philosphy, but not Chevrolet's...

 

[Train]

Leaf sales AND Volt sales will stagnate and remain lukewarm for a number of reasons. Many early adopters and enthusiasts have bought their Leaf/Volt. The general public now will have to be turned on to the thought of spending $40,000 for these cars. The economy is horrible; high unemployment, inflation, an awful housing market. Many people are holdng back on car purchases until the economy stabilizes.

Volt sales will be far worst, in my opinion, than Leaf sales because of the price of the vehicle. I still contend that's why they are selling so little. The Volt, in my opinion is a great concept and GM perhaps should have sold them at a greater loss to get people in them. The Leaf's price has been bumped up for 2012 so it's getting very close to a sticker that may turn off any consideration for the average consumer.

I'm telling you, The term "orphan Leaf" is going to go by the wayside very soon because there will be plenty on dealer lots in the upcoming months. They'll just be Leafs. They'll sell just like regular cars.

There are probably many buyers who may want to buy an electric car but it is simply too expensive. They don't make enough money to purchase one. They certainly don't have the $7500 tax liability.

By January, I'm prediciting many Leafs and Volts will be on dealer lots and they will be discounted with incentives.

 

[TomT]

+1

Leaf sales AND Volt sales will stagnate and remain lukewarm for a number of reasons. Many early adopters and enthusiasts have bought their Leaf/Volt. The general public now ill have to be turned on to the thought of spending $40,000 for these cars. The economy is horrible; high unemployment, inflation, an awful housing market. Many people are holdng back on car purchases until the economy stabilizes.

Volt sales will be far worst, in my opinion, than Leaf sales because of the price of the vehicle. I still contend that's why they are selling so little. The Volt, in my opinion is a great concept and GM perhaps should have sold them at a greater loss to get people in them. The Leaf's price has been bumped up for 2012 so it's getting very close to a sticker that may turn off any consideration for the average consumer.

I'm telling you, The term "orphan Leaf" is going to go by the wayside very soon because there will be plenty on dealer lots in the upcoming months. They'll just be Leafs. They'll sell just like regular cars.

There are probably many buyers who may want to buy an electric car but it is simply too expensive. They don't make enough money to purchase one. They certainly don't have the $7500 tax liability.

By January, I'm prediciting many Leafs and Volts will be on dealer lots and they will be discounted with incentives.

 

[Train]

The problem is the whole Volt philosophy, that one has an EV with an almost uselessly short EV range

On the contrary, if all those studies indicated most people drive less than 40 miles a day, it's makes perfect sense. You have pure electric power for most daily driving, you have the extended range engine for anything else. The problem with the Volt from its inception has been price. I think GM should have taken losses early on and sold it for $32,000. Just my opinion.

 

[DaveEV]

Volt sales will be far worst, in my opinion, than Leaf sales because of the price of the vehicle. I still contend that's why they are selling so little.

They're selling so few because of supply, not demand right now. Look at how many dealers are still gouging. Look at how many people can't buy a car because their dealer can't get the car yet and they live in the wrong state.

Let's have another look in 3-4 months for GM and after Nissan's Tennessee starts production to see what sales really do.

 

[tps]

The problem is the whole Volt philosophy, that one has an EV with an almost uselessly short EV range

On the contrary, if all those studies indicated most people drive less than 40 miles a day, it's makes perfect sense.

I'm one of those "most people". As I said, my daily commute is 35+ miles, and the Volt leaves me no "buffer"; I'd be fairly likely to use the gas engine almost every day. Not what I want from an EV... It doesn't make sense for me. If I had say, a 5 mile commute, lugging the weight and complexity of the Volt's gas engine would still not make sense.

 

[davewill]

... By January, I'm prediciting many Leafs and Volts will be on dealer lots and they will be discounted with incentives.

Not that soon, at least for the LEAF. The same production is getting spread out over more and more geography, not just here but in Europe. I don't think the supply bottleneck eases until the summer...but you're right in the essentials.

 

[evnow]

There are probably many buyers who may want to buy an electric car but it is simply too expensive. They don't make enough money to purchase one. They certainly don't have the $7500 tax liability.

By January, I'm prediciting many Leafs and Volts will be on dealer lots and they will be discounted with incentives.

Your analysis is too generic with no numbers. Who are these "they" who don't have the $7500 tax liability ? Just look at the # of cars Merc & Lexus sell each month. We are talking about just 1,500 cars a month for Leaf. We don't need 50% of Americans to be able to afford a Leaf - just 0.1% of the new car market every month.

So the question is not really whether there are enough buyers with money to buy a $30K car after tax credit, it is whether enough people can be found who are interested in buying what is currently a niche car (BTW, more than a thousand corvettes sold in Aug) - esp. given the hostile press.

 

[Stanton]

I have a daily RT commute of 35 miles with no side trips, so I'd likely be running Volt's EV mode dry every day. With the LEAF, I'll likely charge to 80% and have some room to spare! NJ was a Volt rollout state; I could have gone across the bridge long ago and bought a Volt if I had the desire, but I've suffered through Nissan's very long rollout because I believe in their philosphy, but not Chevrolet's...

I totally agree :!:

 

[abasile]

So the question is not really whether there are enough buyers with money to buy a $30K car after tax credit, it is whether enough people can be found who are interested in buying what is currently a niche car (BTW, more than a thousand corvettes sold in Aug) - esp. given the hostile press.

I agree with this.

One might also argue that some prospective buyers are deterred by the presence of a reservation system and the need to hunt around for an "orphan" if they don't have an order. Many car buyers are not interested in a drawn-out process. They'd like to go to a dealer, test drive the vehicle that interests them, make the purchase (below MSRP), and drive off the same day.

When the LEAF is available for immediate purchase at dealers all across the nation, we'll be able to get the clearest possible picture of stateside demand.

 

[tps]

When the LEAF is available for immediate purchase at dealers all across the nation, we'll be able to get the clearest possible picture of stateside demand.

+1

This may be some time after Smyrna comes on line. Until then, given the limited production which has been coming out of Oppama, I suspect the reservation system will continue...

 

[evnow]

When the LEAF is available for immediate purchase at dealers all across the nation, we'll be able to get the clearest possible picture of stateside demand.

Absolutely - same for any other vehicle, including Volt. That is why I caution the people who are trying to write obituaries of Volt.

 

[Train]

Your analysis is too generic with no numbers. Who are these "they" who don't have the $7500 tax liability ? Just look at the # of cars Merc & Lexus sell each month. We are talking about just 1,500 cars a month for Leaf. We don't need 50% of Americans to be able to afford a Leaf - just 0.1% of the new car market every month.

So the question is not really whether there are enough buyers with money to buy a $30K car after tax credit, it is whether enough people can be found who are interested in buying what is currently a niche car (BTW, more than a thousand corvettes sold in Aug) - esp. given the hostile press.

My "analysis" is a prediction, no more, no less. You're reading too much into it.

"Hostile press." :lol:

 

[ht2]

July Japan sales for Leaf - 463.
Source: Japanese 2 channel Leaf forum.

 

[Yoshi]

The JP JULY-11 number was 463 units reported by following post from the JADA documents.
http://yuzuru.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/auto/1314545920/120" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yoshi@Japan

 

[surfingslovak]

Not sure how reliable this info is, but here is what came in half an hour ago:

I thought you should know that we are actually OVERSTOCKED ON VOLTS!!! I have at least 87 to choose from as of this morning and you can benefit from our problem! ALL VOLTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR ONLY $500.00 over invoice this week only until we get the selection down to a managable level! Please call me as this deal is only available by seeing Tony Signorelli at Courtesy Chevrolet!


Expecting Great Things,

Tony Signorelli
408-569-6065 cell
[email protected]


This email was sent to: [email protected].
From: Courtesy Chevrolet 3640 Stevens Creek Blvd San Jose, CA 95117

 

[DaveEV]

Not sure how reliable this info is, but here is what came in half an hour ago:

I thought you should know that we are actually OVERSTOCKED ON VOLTS!!! I have at least 87 to choose from as of this morning and you can benefit from our problem! ALL VOLTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR ONLY $500.00 over invoice this week only until we get the selection down to a managable level!

Sounds like GM has finally gotten production ramped up after the closure. Yahoo Autos is showing 1660 Volts in stock right now.

$500 over invoice is a good deal if you want a Volt. What is invoice on the Volt, BTW? Yahoo is showing the base invoice price as $37,579 for the 2012 Volt. The Volt still ends up costing nearly $10k more that what I paid for my LEAF after rebates/credits, though. Not qualifying for the CA rebate really hurts in this market.

 

[kmp647]

Courtesy chevy in San Jose shows a total of 171 new chevys in stock

they show 5 volts on hand not 87

no way no dealer has 87

this email is not accurate , check the source

sure there are some volts , but not many

go ahead and inquire and try to buy one.......