July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[redLEAF]

Lexus sold 1620 CT200h models in the USA in April

thats a $32k to $39k small hatchback with the prius powertrain

1,620 ct is a good number 370 Leaf is not

Look at the CT200h styling , interior, dash etc, drive it and check the handling

Nissan should dump the leaf styling , use the CT as a benchmark

Don't know about 'dumping' the styling although we do like the CT's looks but I had actually cross shopped the LEAF with the CT200h as some may or may not have (another thread had a reporter ask what's a good comparison car for the LEAF, CT wasn't on the list much) -- the reason was not styling but rather how we planned to use the replacement for our '06 Mazda3 5-door GT that was traded in. It was for work commutes (no long trips) and weekend errands (primarily) and when all was said and done, the initial purchase for the CT is lower of course than a LEAF but after incentives the LEAF was actually a few thousand less than the CT and of course the LEAF cost less to operate even with the hybrid tech in the CT (about $3,800 over 4 years according to edmunds) --- with 3 days during the week on only a 7-mile R/T commute, it simply made better sense for us to use 'no warm up' electric power with a LEAF as we didn't care for the Volt and the FFE wasn't available yet. Now back to why so few LEAF's were sold in April ... how many people go through the effort to REALLY see how they're using their car(s) and will that use change over the life of the car, etc. perhaps just not enough yet -- of course most car decisions aren't just related to the cost to drive (as in the 'savings' aspect you need to subtract the cost of the home charger + install) but this mind set for the 'average' driver will change gradually ... I plan to 'educate' anyone who asks (seems to be more of that lately, even in IL) and then they can make their own decision. We'll also 'evaluate' the plug-in hybrids as a replacement for the next car we buy; as that's a different type of use vehicle (trip + utility car) and we'll more than likely be a multi-car family for a number of years to come, another LEAF won't be considered but that's expected --- let's see how the Japan sales numbers come in as well and let the pundits scream all they want and ignore it; at least that's what I plan to do

 

[TomT]

Have you driven a CT? I have and it is not an impressive car... And I find the styling quite boring as well...

Nissan should dump the leaf styling , use the CT as a benchmark

 

[kmp647]

I have driven a CT yes. I know and you know a leaf has better feel to the powertrain. even thought the 0-60 is real close the Leaf feels much better/faster/responsive

the CT has better handling from what I can tell
the CT has better exterior styling to most peoples eyes....
and the CT200h interior is a homerun

I had the choice of either and chose the Leaf. but since Lexus is selling 1600 copies a month and nissan only 370 to 679 a month on the Leaf........ guess I am in the minority

 

[redLEAF]

Yes, we also test drove a CT ... this was before we were able to ever drive a LEAF. Nice interior materials, smooth ride, comfortable seats, decent controls (gear shift a little strange though, like the LEAF approach better) and very quiet, especially in the limited EV mode; I also own an older Miata which of course handles better than either but much more firm ride, lower seat position, etc. The CT is no sports car but drives much better than (IMO) a Prius as I was able to test drive a Prius V more recently and came away unimpressed; and yes I do realize that the CT and Prius share the same drive train but the CT is more refined --- I happen to prefer hatchbacks over sedans but most people do not. Exterior styling isn't very exciting on a CT but I kind of like the subdued look of it ... to each his own as always but I wouldn't recommend Nissan goes for a 'CT' look; it doesn't fit the car. About the only thing I would change is the rear end on the LEAF ... gets filthy too quickly and as I prefer putting my stuff in the trunk, the hatch button is too prone to being covered with salt in the winter or mud, rain in the summer --- hey, the new hands-free hatch release like on the new Ford Escape would do the trick!

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-31166_7-20128563-271/ford-video-shows-new-escape-with-hands-free-hatch/

 

[Train]

people are not "holding off" for the 2013 Leaf, they just are not interested in a Leaf at all.

Exactly.

People aren't interested. I've seen so many commercials, so many magazines ads, heck there's billboards out there.

When that Smyrna factory starts churning out tens of thousands of Leafs and they aren't being bought, then what? Dozens of Leafs on car lots, dealers losing money, Nissan losing money, and stockholders wondering what the heck Ghosn was thinking.

Cars that don't sell well are eventually discontinued. That's the brutal truth.

 

[TomT]

My problems with it were that, for a Lexus in the near-luxury segment and price-range, it was noisy, had a mediocre ride, the handling was uninspiring, and the performance lacidazical... The interior was very nice, though I didn't like the arrangement of some of the controls and buttons.

I have driven a CT yes. I know and you know a leaf has better feel to the powertrain. even thought the 0-60 is real close the Leaf feels much better/faster/responsive
the CT has better handling from what I can tell
the CT has better exterior styling to most peoples eyes....
and the CT200h interior is a homerun

 

[Nubo]

people are not "holding off" for the 2013 Leaf, they just are not interested in a Leaf at all.

Exactly.

People aren't interested. I've seen so many commercials, so many magazines ads, heck there's billboards out there.

When that Smyrna factory starts churning out tens of thousands of Leafs and they aren't being bought, then what? Dozens of Leafs on car lots, dealers losing money, Nissan losing money, and stockholders wondering what the heck Ghosn was thinking. ...

Yes, that's exactly the point I'm trying to make. What is Ghosn thinking? Because if you don't know that, then you don't know if the April US sales are good, bad, or spot-on. How many LEAF are Nissan producing, and of that total, how many are allocated to the US? And is that allocation based on demand, or is there an attempt to minimize losses due to unfavorable currency/trade conditions?

I'd say they are only in the second inning. Far too soon to say how this game will end.

 

[DaveEV]

Not that one buyer is significant but I know a guy who has driven mine and says he wants one, but after researching it decided to wait for a 2013. Who knows, there may be another reason to wait then. Most people don't see any sense of urgency even if they have warmed to the whole idea... and who can blame them? You can always make the decision to buy later.

I know that if I were in the market for a LEAF today - I would definitely wait 6 - 10 months to buy a 2013 and hopefully a Smyrma built model. After all - the 2013 is going to be better in every way - just the ones we know about would make it worth the wait - more efficient heater and 6.6kW L2, more interior options (darker interior, leather). Never mind the other possible changes: might be cheaper, might have more room in the trunk (charger moved under the hood). Nissan may have other tricks up their sleeve as well!

Lexus sold 1620 CT200h models in the USA in April - thats a $32k to $39k small hatchback with the prius powertrain

1,620 ct is a good number 370 Leaf is not

Look at the CT200h styling , interior, dash etc, drive it and check the handling

Nissan should dump the leaf styling , use the CT as a benchmark

Not to mention - it's a Lexus. Premium brands are expected to cost $30k+. Nissan/Toyota - not so much. The CT also appears to have better inventory than the LEAF, at least here in California.

I still don't expect LEAF sales to change much until the 2013 is available.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

No reason to panic, MiEV is doing good and is sold for very long time already(short time here). Nissan and others are in the business of making money and will adjust production to demand, market condition, and that exactly what is happening

MiEV sale USA Canada
Nov.2011 4 7
Dec.2011 76 16
Jan.2012 36 12
Feb.2012 44 20
March 2012 56 14
Apr.2012 79 22

 

[GRA]

Not that one buyer is significant but I know a guy who has driven mine and says he wants one, but after researching it decided to wait for a 2013. Who knows, there may be another reason to wait then. Most people don't see any sense of urgency even if they have warmed to the whole idea... and who can blame them? You can always make the decision to buy later.

I know that if I were in the market for a LEAF today - I would definitely wait 6 - 10 months to buy a 2013 and hopefully a Smyrma built model. After all - the 2013 is going to be better in every way - just the ones we know about would make it worth the wait - more efficient heater and 6.6kW L2, more interior options (darker interior, leather). Never mind the other possible changes: might be cheaper, might have more room in the trunk (charger moved under the hood). Nissan may have other tricks up their sleeve as well!

Indeed, I can't see anyone who doesn't have money burning a hole in his pocket (and who is aware of the 2013 improvements) who wouldn't wait, just as many California Volt buyers waited for the HOV-cars. Four months or so for 6.6 kW charger, an improved heater and possibly other enhancements, plus an optional QC that the Focus lacks? This is a no-brainer for most people, unless the 2012's current features completely satisfy your needs.

That being said, the sales numbers for both Leaf and Volt are bad, the Leaf's in particular are appalling. Maybe a few potential buyers are waiting until they can try the Focus before deciding between that and the Leaf, but I think that number is small (see below).

I was figuring the PiP's sales would pass the Volt's no later than June, but they did it in just two months and are almost certainly cannibalizing sales from the Volt in California. It may still be too early to call the Volt a flop, but it's thrashing around in two inches of water.

Where's the market for the Volt? EV purists (you know who you are) won't settle for anything less than a BEV and are willing to put up with the limitations (or have ways to deal with them), and cars like the Leaf and i being two to ten thousand dollars cheaper up front than the Volt just makes it an easier decision. Gas prices are still too low to cause mainstream buyers to consider plug-ins of any kind in large numbers even with incentives, and the only car I can see the Volt cannibalizing sales from is the Focus EV. The nicer handling and better displays of the Focus are unlikely to be considered worth the extra money [Added: unless they live in a climate where the TMS is valuable] to someone also considering the Leaf (assuming they'll wait for the 2013), and the Coda requires a multi-thousand dollar leap of faith to get its extra range.

So what can save the Volt absent much higher gas prices (down ~ $0.30/gal. locally in the past month, which probably affected April sales)? Further decontenting will help marginally, but I think nothing short of offering a version with say half the battery, an engine modified to use regular gas and a significantly lower price will allow it to compete with the PiP. The longer GM puts this off the closer they are to January 1, 2015 when the HOV stickers expire, and the less valuable such a car will be.

 

[davewill]

... When that Smyrna factory starts churning out tens of thousands of Leafs and they aren't being bought, ...

Exactly what I've been thinking, but in reverse. Until there are a ready supply of LEAFs and an updated marketing campaign, all this speculation (whether doom and gloom or optimistic) is just based on personal feelings.

 

[kmp647]

What is the dollar yen exch rate?
Is it bad or what
Will it make a difference to build in Smyrna?

 

[Weatherman]

One dollar, today, buys about 80 Japanese Yen, as compared to around 125 Yen five years ago, a drop of about 36% in exchange value.

 

[Stoaty]

People aren't interested. I've seen so many commercials, so many magazines ads, heck there's billboards out there.

When that Smyrna factory starts churning out tens of thousands of Leafs and they aren't being bought, then what? Dozens of Leafs on car lots, dealers losing money, Nissan losing money, and stockholders wondering what the heck Ghosn was thinking.

What a load of crap. The Leaf is getting a much faster start than the Prius did 15 years ago (and look how the Prius is doing now). We won't know how the Leaf in particular and EV in general are going to do for another 4-5 years. Depends on gas prices, features of EV, cost of EV built in the U.S., how soon larger capacity battery is available and at what additional cost. I think Nissan is in this for the long haul, and I think they have placed a big bet which is likely to put them in a very good position 5-10 years from now. Only time will tell.

 

[KeiJidosha]

Some LEAF buyers are waiting for a better car, Nissan is waiting for better margins. No one is in a hurry pending Smyrna.

 

[jackal]

The Jan - April numbers for USA are too dismal for Nissan not to be concerned.

My theory is that with current limited production of 2000 per month, Nissan is diverting sales to Europe where they are very well received. (Sold more than 1000 in Norway) This coincides very well with the plunge in USA numbers.

Thus I concur that we are only in 2nd inning and that true sales numbers will only be known when production are fully ramped up in 2013.

 

[Stoaty]

The Jan - April numbers for USA are too dismal for Nissan not to be concerned.

My theory is that with current limited production of 2000 per month, Nissan is diverting sales to Europe where they are very well received. (Sold more than 1000 in Norway) This coincides very well with the plunge in USA numbers.

Yes, but perhaps they are being diverted to Europe because Nissan can make more money due to exchange rates. Why would Nissan be worried about selling the Leaf in the U.S. immediately when Smyrna plant will be coming on line shortly and features will be better (6.6 Kw charging) and price may be more attractive.

 

[thankyouOB]

My understanding is that Smyrna is going to be the Leaf factory for US and Europe.
As to sales status, lots of Americans dont want to buy a new concept until it has been out a few years and a couple of models at least.
I dont think we can tell what is going to happen in the coming years. There are allot of people on this board who think they can tell the future about this issue.
If they are so good at that, maybe they can predict where interest rates or the stock market is going as well, and let us all in on it.
Or just make a bundle themselves.
Personally, I dont have crystal ball, but I am glad I was one of the first thousand to buy a Leaf in the US.

 

[hill]

One dollar, today, buys about 80 Japanese Yen, as compared to around 125 Yen five years ago, a drop of about 36% in exchange value.

In addition, the Feds are continuing to print fake money at record / break neck speed. It can take up to 2 years for that additional fake dollar dilution to be realized. You can be sure that the exchange rate will widen as the Fed's continue to steal its citizens savings. Double the fake printed money supply (to pay for a spiraling national debt ... and or a trillion dollar military, for instance), you are in essence robbing 1/2 of your money's value.

 

[scottf200]

Question:

Why would Nissan be worried about selling the Leaf in the U.S. immediately when Smyrna plant will be coming on line shortly [Mark Perry: We expect Start of production in December 2012]

One possible answer:

April 30, 2012 - First Ford Dealers Certified to Sell Focus Electric – America’s Most Efficient Five-Seater – with National Rollout to Follow
http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=36440" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

• First 67 dealers are certified and ready to sell Ford’s first gas-free, all-electric car – the 2012 Ford Focus Electric – arriving this spring
• Focus Electric is scheduled to be available nationwide by the end of 2012
• The 2012 Focus Electric is America’s most fuel-efficient five-passenger vehicle – certified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to offer the equivalent of 110 miles per gallon (MPGe) city
• Focus Electric will be joined later by the new 2013 Ford Fusion – aiming to be America’s most fuel-efficient gas- and hybrid-powered midsize sedans – to help create one of the industry’s most fuel-efficient car lineups

<snip>
The 67 dealers are in California, New York and New Jersey –markets that account for a large percentage of electrified vehicle sales and will begin seeing the Focus Electric later this spring. By the end of the year, Focus Electric will be available nationwide.
With more motor power, standard features, passenger room and faster charging time than Nissan Leaf, dealers have been eager to start selling Focus Electric.

First, however, they had to satisfy a list of other requirements to become certified, including:

• One of the two required charging stations at the dealership must be in the customer area and the other must be in the service area
• At least one Focus Electric must be available at all times for demonstrations and events
• Of the sales consultant, sales manager, service advisor and service manager jobs at each location, 80 percent must meet specific electric vehicle training certification requirements that cover topics including advanced knowledge of electrification
• Each showroom will have point-of-purchase display materials including digital assets and window signage
• Participation in a Ford Go Green Dealer Onsite Facility Assessment to identify energy and cost saving opportunities with a goal of facilitating energy efficiency, lower operating expenses and carbon footprint reduction