July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[Nekota]

Easy for you to say. You've had you LEAF for a while now...

I know - you guys have been waiting for - far too long. Looks like Focus EV is getting delayed too.

Here are some pre quake numbers going up to 200,000 in 2012 but I know waiting is hard - memories of very unfair feelings and irritation at the changing delivery dates.

link -> http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1914296,00.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[navidad]

200000 per year is not possible if the plant of Smyrna is not working.

 

[evnow]

Easy for you to say. You've had you LEAF for a while now...

I know - you guys have been waiting for - far too long. Looks like Focus EV is getting delayed too.

Here are some pre quake numbers going up to 200,000 in 2012 but I know waiting is hard - memories of very unfair feelings and irritation at the changing delivery dates.

link -> http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1914296,00.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

200K is in a couple of years. Capacity is currently about 4K per month (i.e. pre-tsunami numbers). You can see this in the PPTs linked in the reference doc thread.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

200000 per year is not possible if the plant of Smyrna is not working.

less than a year to go

 

[TomT]

Time will tell but I believe that Nissan is going to have a devil of a time selling 200,000 a year once initial demand is satisfied... We'll see in 2013...

200000 per year is not possible if the plant of Smyrna is not working.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Time will tell but I believe that Nissan is going to have a devil of a time selling 200,000 a year once initial demand is satisfied... We'll see in 2013...

200000 per year is not possible if the plant of Smyrna is not working.

nationally, i would agree. worldwide, i believe we are a good 3-5 years away from market saturation

i think we all know that the only way the Leaf or any other EV for that matter will survive is a proliferation of charging stations. if not for gas stations, cars never would have become mainstream either.

what we ALL fail to realize is that its not the range, its the availability of fuel. if there was a single QC station for every TEN Gas stations, 2 million Leafs a year would not satisfy demand.

until that happens, EVs will struggle. but i believe it will take 2-3 years at 100,000 a year to cover early adopters and converts. so, we basically have that long to get these stations in place.

 

[edatoakrun]

...what we ALL fail to realize is that its not the range, its the availability of fuel. if there was a single QC station for every TEN Gas stations, 2 million Leafs a year would not satisfy demand...

Actually, I believe one DC for every 100 gas stations, a few thousand across the country, would pretty much "complete" the BEV charge infrastructure, since the vast majority of charging will be done on AC.

Until we get there, no BEV driver can really utilize their cars full potential. Since I posted the comment below, almost a year ago, I think I know the answer to why Nissan is not taking a more active role in promoting fast charging in the US.

It doesn't have to.

Nissan knows it has LEAF production "sold" for many years into the future. If they have any trouble selling the output from the US plant domestically in future years, they can easily sell them in the land of $8-10 a gallon gasoline, Europe, and at higher profit margins.

I do not understand Nissan USA's apparent reluctance to contribute to the development of the public fast charge infrastructure.

Billions of dollars have been invested by Nissan in designing and producing the LEAF. IMO the design and concept is far superior to any of the "plug-in" or ICE "conversions" that will enter the market in the next few years. But there is currently a glaring failure in the LEAF concept to any potential American buyer. Nissan is allowing it's EV competitors to beat it up over "range anxiety" and slower level 2 charge times.

The total cost of a DC fast charger installation is reported to be only $5,000-$25,000, before various subsidies and tax credits. Why Is Nissan not making any effort to promote DC infrastructure development? This is by far the most cost-effective way to increase the range and practically of the Leaf to current (any of you owners even used a DC charger yet?) and future drivers.

EV drivers do not need fast charging at home or at the dealer. They need to be able to get an occasional fast charge on the road BETWEEN destinations.

Until roadside charging becomes a reality, EV/ICE half-breeds like the Volt will be named "car of the year", and actual EV's will be considered fringe products.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=2374

 

[TRONZ]

I thought 200K per year was for all of Nissans EVs. They are rolling out more than the LEAF in the Smyrna plant and that number was based on the adjacent battery facilities capacity.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I thought 200K per year was for all of Nissans EVs. They are rolling out more than the LEAF in the Smyrna plant and that number was based on the adjacent battery facilities capacity.

i believe it to be 200,000 batteries, 150,000 Leafs which means that another Nissan EV is obviously ready to be announced.

Worldwide would add another ummm, 50K for Europe and 50 K for Asia? not quite sure of those #s and not sure how the earthquake has impacted those plans.

 

[Herm]

Actually, I believe one DC for every 100 gas stations, a few thousand across the country, would pretty much "complete" the BEV charge infrastructure, since the vast majority of charging will be done on AC.

I completely agree, there is no way a commercial L2 charging station can compete with the convenience of charging in the privacy of your home. It may be necessary for the government to pay for this L3 infrastructure. We run a grave danger of spending a lot of public money for L2 that few people will use, the danger is that this will tar L3 charging.

 

[kmp647]

Lets remember that the current Leaf cars L2 charge rate is so low , that is what makes L2 in public less useful

If the on board charger is upgraded in 2013 to 6.6kw and then in 2014 higher (how about 12kw)

then you get a good charge rate at many L2 units if they can deliver the amps

are there any public L2 that can deliver above 32amps?

also once the leaf has 32amp ability it will need a feature to drop amps to 16 if needed based on the circuits cap[acity

 

[daggad]

What do you think the cost will be for an upgrade from the current 3.3kW charger to a 6.6kW when they appear ?

 

[kmp647]

The larger charger would be on future models ie 2013 2014 2015 Leaf and infinity ev's
I dont think its likely at all that the 3.3kw chargers on board 2011 and 2012's will ever be upgraded.

 

[daggad]

No I was thinking of what the cost would likely be to change the charger into a 6.6kW version. I guess that would be possible ?

 

[evnow]

Time will tell but I believe that Nissan is going to have a devil of a time selling 200,000 a year once initial demand is satisfied... We'll see in 2013...

Yes 200k (or 150k) is not easy to sell. That is as much as what they sell of Versa now - with only Ultima selling more. They will have to start selling to non-enthusiasts.

Though, as I've said before, even if they just sell to Move On members & Sierra Club members, they can keep selling 10K a month for a few years. But anti-EV press has confused the issue (regarding coal plants) enough to put doubts in greens as well.

 

[tps]

once the leaf has 32amp ability it will need a feature to drop amps to 16 if needed based on the circuits cap[acity

Isn't this exactly what the J1772 pilot signal does?

 

[evnow]

Volt sales were 1,108 for October. Much less than 4K "available" units.

 

[TomT]

One word: Price.

Volt sales were 1,108 for October. Much less than 4K "available" units.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

they are improving, but they need to tarnish some of the bells and plug a few whistles to really make a dent in the market

 

[tps]

Volt sales were 1,108 for October. Much less than 4K "available" units.

I'd like to see LEAF production cranked up to 4K/mo or more... I wonder how many LEAF sales will be lost when they see Volts on the lot, available for immediate purchase, whereas the LEAF is still hard to get. That is probably the reality of the situation in this area. I bet I could go across the bridge to NJ and get a Volt today, if I wanted. It'll likely be a while until there will be many LEAFs sitting on NJ car lots and even longer for PA car lots...