Is anyone abandoning the Leaf due to gas price dropping?

[powersurge]

No one should consider dumping the Leaf because gas prices are low. Anyone who is considering it is very short sighted or should reconsider why you bought the car.

Does anyone REALLY think that the low gas prices are A) just something that happened?, or B) Are going to stay low? The low gas prices are a planned move by OPEC, or the current equivalent to kill all competition and entice the world to keep buying gas guzzler cars. Just like a drug dealer that gives away drugs for free, until they have the mark hooked, and will pay anything to keep the drug coming. This happened in 1973 during the first gas crisis. Dealers were giving away big cars cause they were not selling, and cars like the Ford Pinto and Chevy Vega became instant how commodities...

Now is the time to enter the great world of electric transportation, and when the S@#T hits the fan, these cars will be worth their weight in gold. No maintenance, cheaper, simpler, and a vehicle where YOU CHOOSE what fuel you will use for your transportation.... Gas should NEVER be a monopoly.

 

[golfcart]

The low gas prices are a planned move by OPEC, or the current equivalent to kill all competition and entice the world to keep buying gas guzzler cars.

While I agree that OPEC countries are doing this to maintain market share and probably can't maintain it forever without killing their economies, I do think that domestic production may have put a cap on how high oil is gonna go anytime in the near future. I'm no expert on the subject, and this is obviously a very complex question with economies of scale involved, but I've read the general consensus is that the price where fracking can be profitable is currently somewhere between $40 and $60 a barrel. From that perspective I don't know if gas is gonna get much higher than $2.50 - $3.00 a gallon (on average). If OPEC countries cut production and try to raise the price above that threshold, domestic production would ramp up again, inducing another glut of oil, and prices would subsequently drop. Do you have any thoughts on that?

Of course, as others have pointed out already, a BEV is still typically cheaper to "fuel" than an ICEV at $1.50 a gallon and should be considerably cheaper to maintain over the long term. But with range limitations and battery degradation still issues with BEV's, lower gas prices probably are making people a lot less likely to continue dealing with those downsides vs just getting a hybrid or fuel efficient gas car... especially with battery replacement costs somewhere near $6000 out of pocket including installation. I think the lack of people purchasing their lease vehicles, the plummeting prices for used leafs, the incentives on new leafs ( I got $5000 cash back and 0% financing on mine), and drop in new sales demonstrate that pretty well. And a certainly don't begrudge someone with a 2011- 2012 leaf that decides that 50 - 60 miles of reliable range is not sufficient and $6k is too much to get that number back up to 80 for the next 5 years.

So I agree that now is a GREAT time to buy one if you are so inclined (can deal with degradation, aware of and OK with range issue) but that folks on the fence probably are swayed not to by low gas prices. I also think that this coming winter, after the Bolt comes out, Tesla 3s are ordered, and news of the leaf 2 should be public, will probably be an awesome time to get a new 30kWh leaf or a cheap used 2013 SL with all the bells and whistles. I'll be glad to let other people pay for range that I don't need and leave me with the discounted 70 - 100 mile car that takes care of 98% of my trips.

 

[tkdbrusco]

I'm with you 100%! I'll be scanning for good deals on 2016 30kwh leafs when the new Bolt and Model 3 hit. My worry is that Nissan is already scaling back production on the 2016 models because they know that they won't be able to sell them as easily, so with limited supply of these there's also less likelihood that they will be as heavily discounted. The best time to buy an EV was December 2015. Some of the deals being tossed around for 2015 SV/SL leafs were completely insane!

I still think the Tesla Model 3 is the way to go (if it is what we think it is). And I'm much less worries about degradation on the newer 200+ mi range cars. The model S batteries are holding up very well and since the packs are larger you have fewer cycle counts for similar mileage. I see no reason what so ever that we can't expect something around 10% degradation over a 100K mile period, so if a Model 3 has 160 miles of usable range after 200K miles, that's still more than I need and still enough to keep a great resale on the car. I don't expect the new 200mi range cars to be at end of life until 250-300K miles, and by then, the price of the batteries will have dropped enough that replacing one will be no different than buying a new engine or a transmission for an ICE car.

I'm looking forward to the future but I also agree that oil prices will never see prices greater than $60/barrel. For the next 20 years it will be a fight against maintaining desire of ICE cars, keeping the western world dependent at least in part on OPEC oil, and also fighting with the new BEV revolution. The technology is there now so if prices get to high, people just buy BEVs.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I'm with you 100%! I'll be scanning for good deals on 2016 30kwh leafs when the new Bolt and Model 3 hit. My worry is that Nissan is already scaling back production on the 2016 models because they know that they won't be able to sell them as easily, so with limited supply of these there's also less likelihood that they will be as heavily discounted. The best time to buy an EV was December 2015. Some of the deals being tossed around for 2015 SV/SL leafs were completely insane!

I still think the Tesla Model 3 is the way to go (if it is what we think it is). And I'm much less worries about degradation on the newer 200+ mi range cars. The model S batteries are holding up very well and since the packs are larger you have fewer cycle counts for similar mileage. I see no reason what so ever that we can't expect something around 10% degradation over a 100K mile period, so if a Model 3 has 160 miles of usable range after 200K miles, that's still more than I need and still enough to keep a great resale on the car. I don't expect the new 200mi range cars to be at end of life until 250-300K miles, and by then, the price of the batteries will have dropped enough that replacing one will be no different than buying a new engine or a transmission for an ICE car.

I'm looking forward to the future but I also agree that oil prices will never see prices greater than $60/barrel. For the next 20 years it will be a fight against maintaining desire of ICE cars, keeping the western world dependent at least in part on OPEC oil, and also fighting with the new BEV revolution. The technology is there now so if prices get to high, people just buy BEVs.

Of course you will have to wait a long time for the model 3 unless you want get in early and pay for a fully loaded car at a very high price and even then delivery will be a way out.

 

[tkdbrusco]

I'm with you 100%! I'll be scanning for good deals on 2016 30kwh leafs when the new Bolt and Model 3 hit. My worry is that Nissan is already scaling back production on the 2016 models because they know that they won't be able to sell them as easily, so with limited supply of these there's also less likelihood that they will be as heavily discounted. The best time to buy an EV was December 2015. Some of the deals being tossed around for 2015 SV/SL leafs were completely insane!

I still think the Tesla Model 3 is the way to go (if it is what we think it is). And I'm much less worries about degradation on the newer 200+ mi range cars. The model S batteries are holding up very well and since the packs are larger you have fewer cycle counts for similar mileage. I see no reason what so ever that we can't expect something around 10% degradation over a 100K mile period, so if a Model 3 has 160 miles of usable range after 200K miles, that's still more than I need and still enough to keep a great resale on the car. I don't expect the new 200mi range cars to be at end of life until 250-300K miles, and by then, the price of the batteries will have dropped enough that replacing one will be no different than buying a new engine or a transmission for an ICE car.

I'm looking forward to the future but I also agree that oil prices will never see prices greater than $60/barrel. For the next 20 years it will be a fight against maintaining desire of ICE cars, keeping the western world dependent at least in part on OPEC oil, and also fighting with the new BEV revolution. The technology is there now so if prices get to high, people just buy BEVs.

Of course you will have to wait a long time for the model 3 unless you want get in early and pay for a fully loaded car at a very high price and even then delivery will be a way out.

My wife and I are both gonna place orders just in case they only let the heavily optioned ones out first. Personally I don't think they will play that game with the Model 3. Its a whole new customer base that they'd piss off. I will spend for a bigger battery option though.

 

[rogersleaf]

It's a foolish choice to simply "dump" a LEAF over a rapid (unsustainable) drop in fuel prices. After all, the investment was already made up front to achieve a lower operating cost. If it's time for the lease to end, then that's an entirely different decision. In my case, I think it's going back when the lease is done. Mostly because the residual value is way too up-side-down and the battery will likely have lost enough capacity to where it would no longer handle my commute. For now I have 16K more miles to burn off before next Fall/Winter, then the lease is up in Spring. This will be a shame to return as it will likely be a clean 45K mile/~85% battery capacity lease return...too bad that's too short on range to meet my needs. As for reloading on another, unlikely unless gas goes closer to $4/gal or the upfront investment cost drops substantially.

 

[TomT]

I elected to go a different route when I turned in the Leaf lease and there is now a 2016 Volt Premier with all options in my driveway...
GM has some new incentives this month and I negotiated a good lease deal on it. $3K down, 3 years, 15K miles a year, and $273 a month...

I was simply tired of playing Nissan games...

It's a foolish choice to simply "dump" a LEAF over a rapid (unsustainable) drop in fuel prices.

 

[dm33]

We're abandoning the LEAF for a variety of reasons. We're going back to an ICE, at least for a while.
- too expensive to stay in it. $20k buyout for a 3 yr old out of warranty LEAF is insane. Used and news ones too expensive with 200 mile range cars coming out.
- quick chargers have suddenly become unavailable. It broke at the dealership and no one will fix it.
- no other electric cars reasonably available here, i3 and model s are about it.
- the Bolt sounds good and were on the fence about waiting for it. I don't trust GM with the lack of chargers. Availability here will likely be delayed into spring or later 2017. We'd have to pay over $37,500 probably closer to $40,000 figuring tax etc. and wait over a year before getting the tax credit. We can get a really nice ICE for much less than that.
- mockups of the LEAF 2.0 and model 3 look too sleek, not enough headroom, visibility for us. We like the LEAF size.

End result we have an ICE on order. Plan to keep it a few years and see what is available then. Lots of big changes going on in the auto world these days.

 

[BernieTx]

Of course, as others have pointed out already, a BEV is still typically cheaper to "fuel" than an ICEV at $1.50 a gallon and should be considerably cheaper to maintain over the long term. But with range limitations and battery degradation still issues with BEV's, lower gas prices probably are making people a lot less likely to continue dealing with those downsides vs just getting a hybrid or fuel efficient gas car... especially with battery replacement costs somewhere near $6000 out of pocket including installation. I think the lack of people purchasing their lease vehicles, the plummeting prices for used leafs, the incentives on new leafs ( I got $5000 cash back and 0% financing on mine), and drop in new sales demonstrate that pretty well. And a certainly don't begrudge someone with a 2011- 2012 leaf that decides that 50 - 60 miles of reliable range is not sufficient and $6k is too much to get that number back up to 80 for the next 5 years.

So I agree that now is a GREAT time to buy one if you are so inclined (can deal with degradation, aware of and OK with range issue) but that folks on the fence probably are swayed not to by low gas prices...

I think the combination of the battery range degradation, and the low resale value plus the low price of gas might push folks towards ICE vehicles; the Leaf is actually pretty darn expensive for a car that has to be disposed of after a few years. Maybe the new bigger battery helps a little, but that's even more expensive.

I think the Volt is less effected by low gas prices because it has a much longer battery life due to active TMS, and you never get stranded because your plans changed and the local DC charger is down. You can get gasoline anywhere, and yet the Volt allows the freedom of all electric driving except for road trips. An original 2011 Volt will likely still be a useful car 5 years from now, easily sold as a used car, while a 2011 Leaf will be worth nothing 5 years from now.

 

[webeleafowners]

Of course, as others have pointed out already, a BEV is still typically cheaper to "fuel" than an ICEV at $1.50 a gallon and should be considerably cheaper to maintain over the long term. But with range limitations and battery degradation still issues with BEV's, lower gas prices probably are making people a lot less likely to continue dealing with those downsides vs just getting a hybrid or fuel efficient gas car... especially with battery replacement costs somewhere near $6000 out of pocket including installation. I think the lack of people purchasing their lease vehicles, the plummeting prices for used leafs, the incentives on new leafs ( I got $5000 cash back and 0% financing on mine), and drop in new sales demonstrate that pretty well. And a certainly don't begrudge someone with a 2011- 2012 leaf that decides that 50 - 60 miles of reliable range is not sufficient and $6k is too much to get that number back up to 80 for the next 5 years.

So I agree that now is a GREAT time to buy one if you are so inclined (can deal with degradation, aware of and OK with range issue) but that folks on the fence probably are swayed not to by low gas prices...

I think the combination of the battery range degradation, and the low resale value plus the low price of gas might push folks towards ICE vehicles; the Leaf is actually pretty darn expensive for a car that has to be disposed of after a few years. Maybe the new bigger battery helps a little, but that's even more expensive.

I think the Volt is less effected by low gas prices because it has a much longer battery life due to active TMS, and you never get stranded because your plans changed and the local DC charger is down. You can get gasoline anywhere, and yet the Volt allows the freedom of all electric driving except for road trips. An original 2011 Volt will likely still be a useful car 5 years from now, easily sold as a used car, while a 2011 Leaf will be worth nothing 5 years from now.

We thought about looking for a LEAF in excellent shape but with severely degraded battery and then just replacing the battery. If it was cheap enough it would be worthwhile as we like the LEAF for what it is and the range is more than adequate. We are still waiting to find out if we need a back seat in the next car. If not we will get a second electric smart. For whatever reason the battery problems don't seem to have come up with the smart community. We have only had ours a year but it is still 100 percent and our smart community members have also not had problems. Probably a technology difference, of which I know nothing about. But I have to wonder if older leafs will get cheap enough for people to just buy them and change the battery. Really, they are a pretty nice car...if you need a back seat.

 

[golfcart]

I think the Volt is less effected by low gas prices because it has a much longer battery life due to active TMS, and you never get stranded because your plans changed and the local DC charger is down. You can get gasoline anywhere, and yet the Volt allows the freedom of all electric driving except for road trips. An original 2011 Volt will likely still be a useful car 5 years from now, easily sold as a used car, while a 2011 Leaf will be worth nothing 5 years from now.

The volt is a great car and works better than the leaf for lots of peoples situations but I don't really think its an apples to apples comparison with a leaf. A 2011 leaf will run you about $6k right now and most will still go 60 mi electric. A 2011 volt will run you about $11k and take you 35 miles electric. A leaf seats 5 to the volts 4. The volt has all the electric parts a leaf has plus all the ICE parts too which can also break. If u live in a really hot climate then of course the leaf is a poor choice but most of us don't.

I also don't think a 2011 leaf will be worthless in 5 years. I keep seeing people post that but it really doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe strictly from a resale value standpoint it might be low but Just because higher range cars come out doesn't make the leaf worthless to its owner. Everything i need is in a 25 mile radius of my house. If i exclude work (where i have charging options) then everything i need is within a 15mi radius. If the range eventually does get too low I could get a new 24kWh battery and be into the 2011 leaf for the price of the 2011 volt. Best case, the price of new batteries comes down significantly by then.

I looked at both the leaf and volt and chose the leaf because it fits my needs better for the price, I'm not gonna drop another $5k for range I don't need. Its a commuter and around town car that I charge at home 99% of the time and have never had any range issues. If we go on a road trip we just use my wife's ICE truck or rent. I plan on driving my leaf for a long time and according too the degradation models for my area it should suit my needs for the next 6-8 years..

 

[grandizer52]

Who's got 2 thumbs and getting a new battery on monday...this guy. so the car has some pros and cons.. gas in hawaii has dropped, BUT, it's going to creep back up, quickly. use solar, so if I get home and the sun is out, free-style, or can plug in after 9pm and get the cheaper charge rate. traffic out here is worse than boston, so sitting with electric isn't bad...also, it looks like the inspector gadget mobile. I may paint it as such. I'm going to okinawa in may and grabbing a leaf, chademo chargers everywhere in japan, makes sense cause they are the least patient people, so quick charge all the time.
I have an ICE I been trying to sell for 2 months, but it has a salvage title..no takers

 

[GerryAZ]

At $0.02/mile for electricity when charging off peak at home with carpool lane access in air conditioned comfort, the oil companies will have to give me gasoline for free if they want me to give up the LEAF for my daily driving. I really like the convenience of plugging in at night and driving during the day without needing to stop at gas stations. Hybrids do not qualify for the carpool lanes in AZ so a Volt is out of the question. My other carpool lane vehicle (BMW motorcycle) requires premium gas so it costs more to run unless the price of premium drops below $1.20 per gallon.

Gerry

 

[golfcart]

Who's got 2 thumbs and getting a new battery on monday...this guy. so the car has some pros and cons.. gas in hawaii has dropped, BUT, it's going to creep back up, quickly. use solar, so if I get home and the sun is out, free-style, or can plug in after 9pm and get the cheaper charge rate. traffic out here is worse than boston, so sitting with electric isn't bad...also, it looks like the inspector gadget mobile.

That'd be funny as hell, you'd need the gray hat and trench coat too. It really is a great car for Oahu especially if u have solar. People don't realize how bad the traffic is out there, used to take me an hour to go from Moiliili to Halawa for work. Doesn't sound terrible until you realize it's only 10 miles mostly "interstate".

 

[TomT]

I turned in my Leaf on March 3 and picked up a 2017 Volt Premier with all options on March 5.
So far, I love the Volt, and I got a great lease deal with a number of incentives... Far better than what Nissan is currently offering on the Leaf...
The only thing I will miss is the HOV stickers...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I am going to say the cheapness of driving a LEAF was not part of the decision (Company reimbursed me $6200 in mileage expenses last year which is tax free since it is not income while my electric bill for the year barely exceeded 10% of that total) but it far from the most important one.

I don't care if they started giving gas away tomorrow, I would still drive EV...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Gas would have to drop to $0.50/gal (and stay there) before fuel costs for a conventional car would match the Leaf's fuel costs here in Memphis, TN.

Depends on the gas car. I'm also in TN, just the other end of the state.

For me, my gas car is a Prius with very efficient LRR tires on 15" rims vs my Leaf on inefficient tires on 16" rims. I can spend hundreds of dollars buying 15" rims and tires for the Leaf and may do so but gas prices affect my thinking.

As is I'm paying 10 cents / kwh at home and free charging at work. If I charge mostly at home I'm facing about 1.9 cent per mile on the Leaf. With the Prius to get 4 cents per mile gas had to be around $2.50. At $1.25 per gallon gas my Prius is about the same cost to run as the Leaf just not as nice a car (I hate hearing the gas engine come on, weaker acceleration, no bluetooth or heated steering wheel, I'd actually have to pump gas more often)

I figure below $1.25 a gallon I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf if the temp outside is going to be over 75F but only for trips over 5-10 miles one way. I'd still use the Leaf for going on short run errands (Groceries, lunch, gym on non work days).

At $1.00 a gallon or less I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf no matter the temp for trips over 5 miles one way.

I guess gas would have to drop below $0.50 a gallon for me to stop using the Leaf for short trips.

I just don't see gas getting cheap enough that I totally stop driving the Leaf, maybe I switch which vehicle is primary but I'd never stop driving the Leaf.

yeeeaaaahhhh....gotta love those free oil changes!

 

[grandizer52]

Who's got 2 thumbs and getting a new battery on monday...this guy. so the car has some pros and cons.. gas in hawaii has dropped, BUT, it's going to creep back up, quickly. use solar, so if I get home and the sun is out, free-style, or can plug in after 9pm and get the cheaper charge rate. traffic out here is worse than boston, so sitting with electric isn't bad...also, it looks like the inspector gadget mobile.

That'd be funny as hell, you'd need the gray hat and trench coat too. It really is a great car for Oahu especially if u have solar. People don't realize how bad the traffic is out there, used to take me an hour to go from Moiliili to Halawa for work. Doesn't sound terrible until you realize it's only 10 miles mostly "interstate".

Don't think my black lab would dig being fur-dyed for cosplay to be brain, but would be an easy costume. I have right now, 30 cells, 20 on the roof, and 10 on a gazebo I fabbed, kept up H-3, its great ride. yea traffic is evil, I go to work at 430, and try to be off ford island by fish, sometimes I plug in at 120 if the spot is available, cause parking on the island is like finding waldo at a strip club....

 

[grandizer52]

Gas would have to drop to $0.50/gal (and stay there) before fuel costs for a conventional car would match the Leaf's fuel costs here in Memphis, TN.

Depends on the gas car. I'm also in TN, just the other end of the state.

For me, my gas car is a Prius with very efficient LRR tires on 15" rims vs my Leaf on inefficient tires on 16" rims. I can spend hundreds of dollars buying 15" rims and tires for the Leaf and may do so but gas prices affect my thinking.

As is I'm paying 10 cents / kwh at home and free charging at work. If I charge mostly at home I'm facing about 1.9 cent per mile on the Leaf. With the Prius to get 4 cents per mile gas had to be around $2.50. At $1.25 per gallon gas my Prius is about the same cost to run as the Leaf just not as nice a car (I hate hearing the gas engine come on, weaker acceleration, no bluetooth or heated steering wheel, I'd actually have to pump gas more often)

I figure below $1.25 a gallon I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf if the temp outside is going to be over 75F but only for trips over 5-10 miles one way. I'd still use the Leaf for going on short run errands (Groceries, lunch, gym on non work days).

At $1.00 a gallon or less I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf no matter the temp for trips over 5 miles one way.

I guess gas would have to drop below $0.50 a gallon for me to stop using the Leaf for short trips.

I just don't see gas getting cheap enough that I totally stop driving the Leaf, maybe I switch which vehicle is primary but I'd never stop driving the Leaf.

yeeeaaaahhhh....gotta love those free oil changes!

Bro,
go on craigslist for Leaf's, there all these dealers pushing them 2011-2013, with free oil changes....I call them and say fix your ad, and stop going full retard

 

[dhanson865]

Gas would have to drop to $0.50/gal (and stay there) before fuel costs for a conventional car would match the Leaf's fuel costs here in Memphis, TN.

Depends on the gas car. I'm also in TN, just the other end of the state.

For me, my gas car is a Prius with very efficient LRR tires on 15" rims vs my Leaf on inefficient tires on 16" rims. I can spend hundreds of dollars buying 15" rims and tires for the Leaf and may do so but gas prices affect my thinking.

As is I'm paying 10 cents / kwh at home and free charging at work. If I charge mostly at home I'm facing about 1.9 cent per mile on the Leaf. With the Prius to get 4 cents per mile gas had to be around $2.50. At $1.25 per gallon gas my Prius is about the same cost to run as the Leaf just not as nice a car (I hate hearing the gas engine come on, weaker acceleration, no bluetooth or heated steering wheel, I'd actually have to pump gas more often)

I figure below $1.25 a gallon I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf if the temp outside is going to be over 75F but only for trips over 5-10 miles one way. I'd still use the Leaf for going on short run errands (Groceries, lunch, gym on non work days).

At $1.00 a gallon or less I'd drive the Prius over the Leaf no matter the temp for trips over 5 miles one way.

I guess gas would have to drop below $0.50 a gallon for me to stop using the Leaf for short trips.

I just don't see gas getting cheap enough that I totally stop driving the Leaf, maybe I switch which vehicle is primary but I'd never stop driving the Leaf.

yeeeaaaahhhh....gotta love those free oil changes!

The last time I did the math the oil changes weren't more than half a cent per mile with gas being several cents a mile. I don't like having to go get one but the cost per oil change really isn't an issue as much as the price of gas vs electricity.