Interesting Article

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
My thoughts: it's hard to make good predictions, especially about the future. :lol: I think EV are good for a variety of reasons (decreased dependence on oil, low maintenance, no pollution unless powered by fossil fuels, etc.), but who really knows what things will be like in 10 years. I'm glad I have my Leaf, and have been thoroughly enjoying it.
 
the author calculated the overall lifetime cost of Leaf to be approximately 30cents/mile, while a lifetime cost of a regular car to be 19.6 cents/mile.

There are several assumptions she made that are totally wrong:

1. Maintenance cost
- Leaf is assumed to require a replacement 2nd battery, priced at ~$16k. This is unrealistic as battery price has been dropping at a rate of about 50% every decade, so it's unlikely that the 2nd Leaf pack (if all the cell do indeed need to be replaced) will cost more that $10k
- the unnamed ICE car has $0 maintenance cost for it's 20year life span. This is unrealistic, as the routine maintenance will probably cost $5~$10k.
- this calculation error results it at least a $10k delta (or $0.05/mile).

2. fuel cost
- the electricity used to power the leaf is assumed to start at 2cents/mile and then go up with response to increased energy price and government tax.
- while at the same time the gas used to power the ICE car is assumed to stay fixed at $3.63/gallon for the entire 20 year period? this is just absurd.

3. cost of car
- author is comparing the $35k Nissan leaf to an unnamed $15k ICE car as equivalent, and we know that a comparably equipped Nissan Versa will cost approximately $20~$21k.

anyways, these 3 cost are too much for me to overlook and take the rest of her analysis seriously.
 
yoyofella said:
the author calculated the overall lifetime cost of Leaf to be approximately 30cents/mile, while a lifetime cost of a regular car to be 19.6 cents/mile.

There are several assumptions she made that are totally wrong:

Yep - I agree 100% with all three points you made. I also have to point out something i've said many times. People keep complaining about the price of the vehicles. Of course we all know those prices will drop, but even if they don't they are still not that expensive. True, to a family looking to buy a $14,000 automobile, the Leaf is probably not for them. But there is a huge portion of the market who is perfectly willing to spend in excess of $30,000 on a vehicle. If there weren't then companies like Audi, Lexus, Acura, Caddilac, Infinity, and BMW would be out of business rather quickly. And once these vehicles start showing up on the used market, more lower-income folks will be able to afford them.

I also expect the cost of these vehicles to drop for several reasons. One reason is that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see manufacturers producing vehicles with a choice of several batteries. For example the Tesla Model-S will have 3 battery choices. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Leaf or some other EV be sold in the future with a low-end model that only does 50 miles instead of 100. With more charging infrastructure available in the future, the lower range would not be such a hinderance and would bring the cost of a new EV down to that of a regular ICE.
 
adric22 said:
yoyofella said:
the author calculated the overall lifetime cost of Leaf to be approximately 30cents/mile, while a lifetime cost of a regular car to be 19.6 cents/mile.

There are several assumptions she made that are totally wrong:

Yep - I agree 100% with all three points you made. I also have to point out something i've said many times. People keep complaining about the price of the vehicles. Of course we all know those prices will drop, but even if they don't they are still not that expensive. True, to a family looking to buy a $14,000 automobile, the Leaf is probably not for them. But there is a huge portion of the market who is perfectly willing to spend in excess of $30,000 on a vehicle. If there weren't then companies like Audi, Lexus, Acura, Caddilac, Infinity, and BMW would be out of business rather quickly. And once these vehicles start showing up on the used market, more lower-income folks will be able to afford them.

I also expect the cost of these vehicles to drop for several reasons. One reason is that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see manufacturers producing vehicles with a choice of several batteries. For example the Tesla Model-S will have 3 battery choices. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Leaf or some other EV be sold in the future with a low-end model that only does 50 miles instead of 100. With more charging infrastructure available in the future, the lower range would not be such a hinderance and by also cutting a lot of the fancy features like navigation would bring the cost of a new EV down to that of a regular ICE.

But truth be told, I really expect vehicles like the Plug-in Prius to do more to cut our fuel consumption in the near-term. That vehicle will be fairly affordable and will probably cut a lot of people's gas bill in half.
 
yoyofella said:
There are several assumptions she made that are totally wrong:
[...]
3. cost of car
- author is comparing the $35k Nissan leaf to an unnamed $15k ICE car as equivalent, and we know that a comparably equipped Nissan Versa will cost approximately $20~$21k.
According to edmunds.com, a Versa with the 4-speed auto transmission and all the options ("cruise control with steering-wheel-mounted controls; Remote keyless entry; Bluetooth hands free phone system; iPod control; Steering wheel audio and Bluetooth hands free phone controls; Leather wrapped steering wheel; Map lights; Sunglass holder; Fabric headliner and visors; Rear cargo area cover (Tonneau); 15" alloy wheels; navigation System with 5" color display; XM Radio; USB connectivity (iPod®-compatible)") has an MSRP of $17,610. However, the base LEAF has all those features, plus many mid- to high-dollar features one cannot get on the Versa: rear disc brakes, stability control, traction control, HID headlights, etc.

The author also made some huge leaps of logic. For example: "...if we save money by buying electricity instead of oil, we may ourselves use the leftover money to buy something else that uses oil" (personally, I would use the leftover money to buy Superman Underoos :) ) and "oil imports will decline, regardless of what we do" (yes, and the rich will give half their wealth to educate underpriviledged children and pay for health care of returning war veterans, and the Easter Bunny will come next year, just as it has every year prior).
 
Soviet said:
What do you guys think of this?

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Rocky-Road-Ahead-The-Problems-with-Plug-in-Cars.html

I know the source is somewhat dubious, but the analysis is very interesting, to me. Your thoughts?

More comments on this article, the referenced article by Peterson and similar articles on this thread.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=5494" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm thinking we need to establish rebuttals for the points raised in these articles just like the ones already expressed in this thread.
 
aqn said:
According to edmunds.com, a Versa with the 4-speed auto transmission and all the options ("cruise control with steering-wheel-mounted controls; Remote keyless entry; Bluetooth hands free phone system; iPod control; Steering wheel audio and Bluetooth hands free phone controls; Leather wrapped steering wheel; Map lights; Sunglass holder; Fabric headliner and visors; Rear cargo area cover (Tonneau); 15" alloy wheels; navigation System with 5" color display; XM Radio; USB connectivity (iPod®-compatible)") has an MSRP of $17,610.

Hi Aqn,

Are you sure you calculating the number based on a hatchback, or sedan? to be fair, we should do a hatch-to-hatch comparison. Keep in mind the hatch command a few thousand $$ premium compare with the sedan.

Also, if you used the hatchback model, are you comparing the Versa 1.8S or 1.8SL to the Leaf? The 1.8S does not have alloy wheel, spoiler, and bluetooth, fog light, and the intelligent key, all of which come standard on the Leaf. A fair comparison with the Leaf is the Versa 18.SL hatch, which with the addition of NAV will cost close to $20 to $21k, according to the Nissan website.
 
I crammed 989 letters in to the 1000 limit:
We've seen 4.5K miles on our leaf for under $100 in electricity with 100% renewable offset. We are averaging about $2K less a year on gas. Over a 15 year period we are looking at a savings of roughly $25K in fuel, roughly what we paid for the car after the tax credit. imagine what that money could do for families! As far as I know it's the only car on the market that stands to pay for its self over it's life. The car covers 80% of our driving and it's 80 mile real world range far exceeds our average driving needs. We could add millions of electric cars to the roads without increasing our electricity production because they charge at night when a vast amount of electricity is "thrown away" during off peak over production. We have the electric production capacity in the US to eliminate oil imports with EV's which would dramatically reduce the main source of terrorist funding. We send $1.2 B a day overseas and spend $50B annually defending oil interests. EV's are a way out!
 
Very well said!

GaslessInSeattle said:
I crammed 989 letters in to the 1000 limit:
We've seen 4.5K miles on our leaf for under $100 in electricity with 100% renewable offset. We are averaging about $2K less a year on gas. Over a 15 year period we are looking at a savings of roughly $25K in fuel, roughly what we paid for the car after the tax credit. imagine what that money could do for families! As far as I know it's the only car on the market that stands to pay for its self over it's life. The car covers 80% of our driving and it's 80 mile real world range far exceeds our average driving needs. We could add millions of electric cars to the roads without increasing our electricity production because they charge at night when a vast amount of electricity is "thrown away" during off peak over production. We have the electric production capacity in the US to eliminate oil imports with EV's which would dramatically reduce the main source of terrorist funding. We send $1.2 B a day overseas and spend $50B annually defending oil interests. EV's are a way out!
 
aqn said:
According to edmunds.com, a Versa with the 4-speed auto transmission and all the options ("cruise control with steering-wheel-mounted controls; Remote keyless entry; Bluetooth hands free phone system; iPod control; Steering wheel audio and Bluetooth hands free phone controls; Leather wrapped steering wheel; Map lights; Sunglass holder; Fabric headliner and visors; Rear cargo area cover (Tonneau); 15" alloy wheels; navigation System with 5" color display; XM Radio; USB connectivity (iPod®-compatible)") has an MSRP of $17,610.
yoyofella said:
Are you sure you calculating the number based on a hatchback, or sedan? to be fair, we should do a hatch-to-hatch comparison. Keep in mind the hatch command a few thousand $$ premium compare with the sedan.
The price I quoted is for a hatchback, with the auto tranny, and with both of the extra options packages.

yoyofella said:
Also, if you used the hatchback model, are you comparing the Versa 1.8S or 1.8SL to the Leaf? The 1.8S does not have alloy wheel, spoiler, and bluetooth, fog light, and the intelligent key, all of which come standard on the Leaf. A fair comparison with the Leaf is the Versa 18.SL hatch, which with the addition of NAV will cost close to $20 to $21k, according to the Nissan website.
You're quite right: I picked the 1.8L, though its options packages do include 15" alloy wheels. The 1.8SL, with the nav option, costs $19,850. And while it does have traction control and stability control, it still does not have HID headlights.
 
We've seen 4.5K miles on our leaf for under $100 in electricity with 100% renewable offset. We are averaging about $2K less a year on gas. Over a 15 year period we are looking at a savings of roughly $25K in fuel, roughly what we paid for the car after the tax credit. imagine what that money could do for families! As far as I know it's the only car on the market that stands to pay for its self over it's life.


______________________________
:oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
Audi Accessories
 
Do you really believe that the car - and more specifically, the battery - is going to last 15 years? You have to figure battery replacement in to that equation which dramatically changes the costs...

nikkiwade said:
We've seen 4.5K miles on our leaf for under $100 in electricity with 100% renewable offset. We are averaging about $2K less a year on gas. Over a 15 year period we are looking at a savings of roughly $25K in fuel, roughly what we paid for the car after the tax credit. imagine what that money could do for families! As far as I know it's the only car on the market that stands to pay for its self over it's life.
 
TomT said:
Do you really believe that the car - and more specifically, the battery - is going to last 15 years? You have to figure battery replacement in to that equation which dramatically changes the costs...
It depends what you mean by "last". As long as I can get 60 miles on a charge, the Leaf will be extremely useful to me. By the time it gets that low, there will likely be a lot more charging opportunities, which might mean I could get by with even less. Since I am getting 5.8 miles/KWh for my long-term average, that means as long as the battery can deliver 10 KWh from a charge I won't be changing the battery. 15 years? Don't know, but I am pretty sure I can get at least 10 years that will serve my needs adequately.
 
15 years? Don't know, but I am pretty sure I can get at least 10 years that will serve my needs adequately.
It's not a fair apples-to-apples comparison, but let's just say that this makes a nice and entertaining read. I just stumbled onto it couple of days ago, perhaps you have seen it already?

http://www.evnut.com/rav_owner_100k.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
The dramatic jump in power and longevity in li-ion battery technology we've been seeing in recent years marks a coming of age of the rechargeable battery. I'm quite convinced that staying within the inner 65% of actual battery capacity results in a battery not with thousands of cycles to it's life but rather tens of thousands of cycles. The leaf is the only device I've owned that has a sophisticated enough battery management system to make optimizing it's longevity very easy. From what we are seeing with our weed whacker, cordless drill set, tooth brush, ipods, ipads, iphones, powerbooks, cameras and now our car, I have become very optimistic about the Leaf's residual value over time, particularly the longevity of it's battery. In the more likely scenario, battery costs will come down over just a few years, certainly within 10 to 15 years, and more importantly, density will improve. I'm pretty confident that the battery will not be hugely expensive to replace by the time it's needed, and even if it is, with our driving, and the average US commute being less than 40 miles, the range could go down to 50 miles and still be enough for what we are doing with the car today allowing for a comfortable margin. I would assume that a loss of something like 50% over 10 years would result in warranty replacement or repair. Being able to replace individual cells at a time will likely make maintenance of the pack remarkably affordable even if the warranty turns out to be mush. I therefore continue to assert that $2K a year in gas savings is huge, whether it's over 10 years or 15 and even considering a full battery replacement.

As far as overall depreciation in value, I believe EV's, particularly the Leaf, could set a new benchmark, showing a much slower rate of depreciation over an ICE car, even with technological advances in new models. So many of the high heat, high wear parts of an ICE just aren't there in an electric car. I've heard estimates of a million miles for an electric car motor. I wonder what will happen to the Leaf's or other electric cars residual value over time if it turns out they typically have something like 5 times the longevity of an ICE.

For a variety of reason's I am very comfortable saying that the Leaf and other similar Ev's will essentially pay for themselves, maybe even better, over their lifetime in gas savings and probably still be worth something well beyond the point at which the typical ICE car is retired.



TomT said:
Do you really believe that the car - and more specifically, the battery - is going to last 15 years? You have to figure battery replacement in to that equation which dramatically changes the costs...

nikkiwade said:
We've seen 4.5K miles on our leaf for under $100 in electricity with 100% renewable offset. We are averaging about $2K less a year on gas. Over a 15 year period we are looking at a savings of roughly $25K in fuel, roughly what we paid for the car after the tax credit. imagine what that money could do for families! As far as I know it's the only car on the market that stands to pay for its self over it's life.
 
Thanks Surfinslovak, thats a great thread.. maybe in a few years we will see some of your pretty faces in a similar Leaf thread :lol:
 
Seems that the author of the article, Gail, has never had a wrench in her hand and couldn't find a dip-stick if someone was willing to pay her :lol:

Article lacks some common sense and missing talk about maintenance issues, which aren't frequent in an EV.
 
Herm said:
Thanks, thats a great thread.. maybe in a few years we will see some of your pretty faces in a similar Leaf thread :lol:
Yes, that would certainly be something to aim for :p

I've noticed BTW that Arnold de Leon and Waidy Lee are active on the forum, and they both purchased a Leaf earlier this year. There could be other veteran RAV4 EV drivers, it's certainly nice to see them here. I met Jerry Pohorsky offline, he heads the Silicon Valley EAA chapter. I really like the following quote from the Avi Hershkovitz' article referenced in the 100K thread:

Electric cars are not exactly plug in and go. You're supposed to rotate the tires every 3,000 miles (5,000 km) and clean out the air vents that help keep the battery pack cool – though Hershkovitz admits to being a little slack on both counts. He also says the tires cost a bit more, and his RAV4 is on its second set."You have to refill the windshield washer, too. But that's pretty well about it." Probe further and he admits he'll also eventually need a new battery pack. He says he hasn't heard of anyone who has had to replace the batteries yet, but he figures it will cost about $10,000 (all figures U.S.). Even at that, Hershkovitz sees electric cars as a better deal. He calculates that his energy costs are about 20 per cent of what he'd be spending on gas. "I've never been one for conspiracy theories, but when you realize how good these are and how long the technology has been around, all the air pollution worries, and the experience I had with GM, you have to wonder," Hershkovitz says. A lot of other people have been wondering, too, especially since the release last June of Who Killed the Electric Car?, one of those rare documentaries that had some box office success.
 
Back
Top