GRA
Well-known member
Came back about day and a half early from Yosemite, as the smoke from various fires was getting bad; I did get in a nice morning hike yesterday, before the wind shifted.TonyWilliams said:epirali said:I am happy to engage in a business discussion of the actual costs of running charging stations. Do you really think that this model works when most people do not want to pay more than say 20c/KWHr? Because a full fast DC charge of 30 minutes would only bring in $4.00 max.
Why would you think that I'd need or want to engage you in a debate about DC charger financials? I don't.
Most people (that excludes the "Just-Drive-The-Prius(TM)" crowd) only have a vague idea how much they currently pay per kWh. The same goes for the metric frequently used in the past with early adopters who kept a Prius around so they could drive any trip where public charging the LEAF might cost one penny more per mile than the cost of a Prius (not counting depreciation, oil changes, maintenance, etc).
So, $0.20 per kWh is just another made up metric by you. As you'll see below, electricity per kWh would have to equal $0.60 to $0.84 per kWh to match a hydrogen car.
Comparing costs that car owners do care about, cost per mile / km to operate equivalent cars, then we find:
Gasoline Car Equivilent
2015 Toyota Camry V6 combined EPA - 25mpg @ $3.45 per gallon in California = $0.138 per mile in energy cost
Hydrogen Car Equivilent
2014 Honda FCX Clarity EPA 59 mpge @ $13.99 per kg = $0.236 per mile in energy cost
2016 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell EPA 50 mpge @ $13.99 per kg = $0.238 per mile in energy cost
2016 Toyota Mirai EPA 66 mpge @ $13.99 per kg = $0.212 per mile in energy cost
Notes: One kg of hydrogen is roughly equivalent to one U.S. gallon of gasoline.
Electric Car Equivilent
2015 Nissan LEAF EPA 4 miles per kWh @ $0.12 per kWh = $0.03 per mile in energy cost
2015 Tesla Model S-70D EPA 3.3 miles per kWh @ $0.12 per kWh = $0.04 per mile in energy cost
The cost per kWh for an Electric Car to match the average cost per mile of a Hydrogen Car ($0.22) would have to be 500% to 700% higher to match.
Back on topic, to reiterate one point which has been repeatedly made (and just as repeatedly ignored by those who believe H2 will never be viable) is that NO customer is paying $13.99/kg. Not one. The auto manufacturers are paying it because they know that H2 FCEVs can't compete against gas (at the moment, neither can public charging) until the price of H2 comes down or gas prices go up (a lot in the U.S., less so in Europe). The forecast price curve and what needs to happen to bring that about has been discussed previously, in various links; probably "The Hydrogen Transition" is the most on point: http://steps.ucdavis.edu/files/08-13-2014-08-13-2014-NextSTEPS-White-Paper-Hydrogen-Transition-7.29.2014.pdf
In particular pgs. 23-29. Also see "Hydrogen Fueling Stations Infrastructure": http://evtc.fsec.ucf.edu/reports/EVTC-RR-02-14.pdf
In short, the fact that H2 isn't competitive now is recognized by all stakeholders, and steps are being taken to change that by the time that FCEVs are ready to go mainstream, assuming they ever are.