Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[GRA]

Free fuel does give value to the lease. Especially if no limit to lease miles.
Still a PITN compared to charging overnight at home.

True, but for those of us who rent and can't charge at home that's a non-issue. For those who can afford it a FCHV is the way to go, as you get the best of both worlds.

I rent and have moved 3 times since getting first LEAF. there is no issues finding a plug for the majority of renters.

If you're renting a home, that's probably correct, at least as far as L1. But if you're renting an apartment? I could charge at home, provided I was willing to run a 50 ft. extension cord out a door or window, which isn't really an option in winter. Alternatively, I could walk five blocks to the nearest L2 in a public parking garage. I'm willing to do that, but since smkettner was talking about it being a PITN to not be able to charge at home, that let's that out.

H2 filling stations I will have to guess is likely to be an errand that MOST will have to devote an hour per session.

at best we are looking at probably no better than 20 minutes and that will cover a very small percentage of new H leasers i am guessing

Not sure where you come up with that estimate. CAFCP has said that they figure filling stations need to be within 6 minutes to be acceptably convenient, and presumably anyone who thought it would be too much hassle to drive to an H2 station would just pass on the car until there was a closer one. As it happens they plan to put one in my city, and since I'm no more than 2.5 miles to a freeway in pretty much any direction, it wouldn't be a hassle for me or anyone else who lived here. If I had to drive 20 miles to fuel up, then I'd pass on the car. People are perfectly capable of deciding how much inconvenience they will put up with, just as you did when you were QC'ing almost every day on your commute.

and unless I am mistaken; where to refuel has never been the point of this thread. the title should have made that obvious especially if you are a tax paying citizen of CA

Speaking as a tax-paying citizen of California, don't you think it's odd that people keep bringing that up as a major drawback? Especially when it will be no more of a drawback than what 200 million or so U.S. drivers putting fossil fuel into their cars deal with on a regular basis.

Meanwhile, how are FCEVs dealing with more practical concerns:

http://cafcp.org/getinvolved/stayconnected/blog/how_do_fcevs_handle_extreme_cold" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ydnas7]

If Nissan does a 150mile EV at a decent lease and/or Tesla does a gen III at a decent price then the H2 fuel cell is DOA.
One is highly likely, one is somewhat likely, either way H2 is DOA.

1x H2 station per city, ha Honda's fcell leases were at 2/month have now dried up....
even 20 x H2 stations per million people is still remarkably inconvienient.

Reality, if an apartment can't get a plug, then there is no new energy vehicle, (except for E85)

Toyota and to lesser extent Hyundai may need to donate their H2 vehicles to get ZEV credits.

 

[TonyWilliams]

If Nissan does a 150mile EV at a decent lease and/or Tesla does a gen III at a decent price then the H2 fuel cell is DOA.
One is highly likely, one is somewhat likely, either way H2 is DOA.

1x H2 station per city, ha Honda's fcell leases were at 2/month have now dried up....
even 20 x H2 stations per million people is still remarkably inconvienient.

Reality, if an apartment can't get a plug, then there is no new energy vehicle, (except for E85)

Toyota and to lesser extent Hyundai may need to donate their H2 vehicles to get ZEV credits.

Wrong. If Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are all cashing in a 9 credits per car, why would they want to build a 150 mile EV, or even a 199 mile EV that still only gets 3 credits each.

That definitely won't kill hydrogen. What will is when 2018 rolls around and ALL the cars are reduced to 3 credits each maximum. Expect some heavy duty lobbying to keep a high value for hydrogen.

 

[ydnas7]

Wrong. If Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are all cashing in a 9 credits per car, why would they want to build a 150 mile EV, or even a 199 mile EV that still only gets 3 credits each.

That definitely won't kill hydrogen. What will is when 2018 rolls around and ALL the cars are reduced to 3 credits each maximum. Expect some heavy duty lobbying to keep a high value for hydrogen.

Honda Fuel Cell vehicles leases at $599 / month have effectively dried up.
Hyundai is $499 / month $3000 down, lets see if they even have 100 confirmed orders to fulfill in the first year in USA.
Toyota , price not given.

Until they sell the cars, (not just a strict lease, no independant repairs allowed etc) these are just test units.

even at 9 cedits this will be an a very expensive exercise for Toyota/Hyundai/Honda

Nissan actually likes H2 cars (being the technology provider for future Mercedes and Ford H2 cars), but something has recently affected their enthusiam for H2.

and yes, I doubt the compliance cars will generally go to 150 EPA miles. They will stay put at current levels for some time.

 

[WetEV]

Meanwhile, how are FCEVs dealing with more practical concerns:

http://cafcp.org/getinvolved/stayconnected/blog/how_do_fcevs_handle_extreme_cold" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Somewhat minor point: that is a FCHV, not a FCEV. As far as I know, practical fuel cells don't work at all below freezing. By adding a large battery, the car can power up, turn on the heat and move under battery power while waiting for the fuel cell to warm up. Something like a hydrogen burning heater or by a large wattage electric heater is needed to raise the fuel cells to operational temperature.

A cross check to Wikipedia shows a metal hydride fuel might operate to -20C, but practical use has not been demonstrated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_hydride_fuel_cell" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This may not be a large issue in moderately cold climates, as the driver is likely to turn the car on and let it sit warming up while scraping snow and ice. However in places that get just very cold (like Montana, Alaska, Minnesota) the driver might have to wait for a FCEV, or the battery capacity of a FCHV would need to be large enough to do everything for the first minutes (very roughly 10 kWh), likewise in cool climates (Seattle), a battery would allow the driver to just get in and go. A fuel cell will start up in seconds at 20C but will take minutes at -30C. Typical start up times might be improved with a storing hot coolant in a thermos like a Prius does, or by using an external plug in heater like is common for ICE cars in very cold areas.

Fuel cells seem to me to be unlikely to displace BEVs as commuting cars. Looks to me like they will cost more and cost more to operate. For long distance personal travel, and for other uses, fuel cells look very interesting.

 

[Nubo]

If Nissan does a 150mile EV at a decent lease and/or Tesla does a gen III at a decent price then the H2 fuel cell is DOA.
One is highly likely, one is somewhat likely, either way H2 is DOA.

1x H2 station per city, ha Honda's fcell leases were at 2/month have now dried up....
even 20 x H2 stations per million people is still remarkably inconvienient.

Reality, if an apartment can't get a plug, then there is no new energy vehicle, (except for E85)

Toyota and to lesser extent Hyundai may need to donate their H2 vehicles to get ZEV credits.

Wrong. If Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are all cashing in a 9 credits per car, why would they want to build a 150 mile EV, or even a 199 mile EV that still only gets 3 credits each. ...

Don't they have to actually sell the cars to get the credit? It will be interesting to see how low the price will have to go.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Don't they have to actually sell the cars to get the credit? It will be interesting to see how low the price will have to go.

Sell or lease.

 

[AndyH]

Fuel cells seem to me to be unlikely to displace BEVs as commuting cars. Looks to me like they will cost more and cost more to operate. For long distance personal travel, and for other uses, fuel cells look very interesting.

I'd agree with you at today's prices. The short-range estimates, however are that FC*V prices can fall faster than BEV prices because battery prices aren't falling nearly as quickly as the price of fuel cells.

It's been about 10 years since I dug into the guts of PEM fuel cells but don't recall cold weather problems. They may be sluggish initially, but I don't recall any of the stationary PEMs (Ballard) needing aux heating for winter use. Automotive PEMs are expected to be able to start and run at -22°F, just as ICEs are.

 

[GRA]

Fuel cells seem to me to be unlikely to displace BEVs as commuting cars. Looks to me like they will cost more and cost more to operate. For long distance personal travel, and for other uses, fuel cells look very interesting.

I'd agree with you at today's prices. The short-range estimates, however are that FC*V prices can fall faster than BEV prices because battery prices aren't falling nearly as quickly as the price of fuel cells.

It's been about 10 years since I dug into the guts of PEM fuel cells but don't recall cold weather problems. They may be sluggish initially, but I don't recall any of the stationary PEMs (Ballard) needing aux heating for winter use. Automotive PEMs are expected to be able to start and run at -22°F, just as ICEs are.

Right. IIRR, both Toyota and Hyundai have stated that their FCEVs will start reliably at -30C (-22°F), although I can't find the articles immediately that say so, but here's a Toyota paper from 2009 describing what they'd achieved with the FCHV-ADV:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2009symposium/presentations/yokoyama.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Scroll down to page 10, where it shows they did starting and performance tests as low as -37C in the Great White North, and also see page 21, where it states they did cold starts down to -30C.

I don't recall what Honda has said. All of these cars have battery packs, because the current fuel cells are slow to increase or decrease power, so the batteries are needed for rapid acceleration and also as somewhere to dump the regen. AFAIR, none of the forthcoming fuel cell cars from Hyundai, Toyota and Honda are going to be FCHVs, i.e. plug-ins, unlike the current Highlander-based FCHV-ADV, which is one. And I agree that commuter cars will likely remain BEVs for the immediate future; beyond five years it will depend on the relative price, infrastructure etc.

 

[GRA]

Wrong. If Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are all cashing in a 9 credits per car, why would they want to build a 150 mile EV, or even a 199 mile EV that still only gets 3 credits each.

That definitely won't kill hydrogen. What will is when 2018 rolls around and ALL the cars are reduced to 3 credits each maximum. Expect some heavy duty lobbying to keep a high value for hydrogen.

Honda Fuel Cell vehicles leases at $599 / month have effectively dried up.
Hyundai is $499 / month $3000 down, lets see if they even have 100 confirmed orders to fulfill in the first year in USA.

Considering that lease includes all maintenance, free fuel, roadside assistance and unlimited mileage, I suspect they won't have any troubles whatsoever leasing as many as they need to. After all, the RAV4 initial leases cost more than that, and didn't include all the goodies.

Toyota , price not given.

Until they sell the cars, (not just a strict lease, no independant repairs allowed etc) these are just test units. <snip>

Well, of course, just as the Mini-E and Active-E were test/development units for BMW. All the companies know the cars are too expensive still, and the infrastructure is lacking for large-scale introduction. But again, why would anyone care that the cars aren't yet for sale? I think we've put that particular demon to rest as far as BEVs go, and they will remain competitors to FCEVs even if the latter prove to be a dead end, or at least not cost-effective (not that BEVs are generally cost-effective now).

 

[GRA]

I think this is a pretty well-balanced article:

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/02/03/toyota-fuel-cell-play-big-green-gamble-hydrogen/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ydnas7]

I think this is a pretty well-balanced article:

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/02/03/toyota-fuel-cell-play-big-green-gamble-hydrogen/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

except it doesn't do justice to Tesla,
Tesla's range, acceleration, interior volume, safety, convenience of recharge, profit margin etc etc etc has killed the Hydrogen vehicle.

Nissan's reply to Tesla will just add more soil over the coffin.

remember the rule of thumb, 1 kWh of solar panel output propels an EV 3 times further than it does a FCV.
Superchargers are free for life, because they are not hydrogen.

Tesla driving across the USA is no big deal, companies can co-ordinate and manage, etc etc
a father and daughter driving a Tesla across the USA is a big deal, when can Hydrogen claim to expect to do that.

 

[smkettner]

Would a FCV cost less than a similar size Tesla? Or about the same? For similar price I would have the Tesla in a heartbeat.
The real race will be to reduce costs.

Considering there are only compliance FCV tells me it is not quite viable yet.

 

[AndyH]

Tesla's range, acceleration, interior volume, safety, convenience of recharge, profit margin etc etc etc has killed the Hydrogen vehicle.

A bit premature to judge, isn't it? Let's re-evaluate this point in 24 months. I'll bring the beer.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Tesla's range, acceleration, interior volume, safety, convenience of recharge, profit margin etc etc etc has killed the Hydrogen vehicle.

A bit premature to judge, isn't it? Let's re-evaluate this point in 24 months. I'll bring the beer.

Is this the death of hydrogen party?

 

[AndyH]

Tesla's range, acceleration, interior volume, safety, convenience of recharge, profit margin etc etc etc has killed the Hydrogen vehicle.

A bit premature to judge, isn't it? Let's re-evaluate this point in 24 months. I'll bring the beer.

Is this the death of hydrogen party?

Nope. Just another wake for those who's tunnel vision keeps them from experiencing all life has to offer.

 

[jsongster]

Bloomberg was quoting $50k for Toyota's new FC car. Don't know where they got the number... but the numbers are sure flying.

Seems that the number of stations for refueling may be an over estimate... since the budget the state was quoting was saying 2.5mil per Hydrogen station. Another source claimed it is currently close to 4 million.

All for a few thousand cars maybe?

I agree that this tech may be viable in a few more years... but BEV is viable and really useful now. We could have hundreds of really cool charging stations for the price of a few showcases for Hydrogen.

Sheesh@!@#$%&^%$#@#$%^&

 

[JeremyW]

I don't get it Andy, you should be happy we have both. Any technology to reduce greenhouse gases and pollution should be a good thing. You seem to think of BEVs as a threat. A threat to what, Andy?

 

[rmay635703]

I agree that this tech may be viable in a few more years... but BEV is viable and really useful now. We could have hundreds of really cool charging stations for the price of a few showcases for Hydrogen.

Sheesh@!@#$%&^%$#@#$%^&

Hydrogen cars are just as ridiculous as an air powered car.

 

[smkettner]

I would be all for hydrogen but out of the ground comes oil and natural gas.