DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
67º...*sigh* so much for hoping for a normal Summer high of 77... looks like most of the SW and MW will be 10º over normal again as usual...
Projected by who? Certainly not by the climate scientists. Is Nissan now one of the first companies to place their bet against climate change--and lose?OrientExpress said:Another viewpoint is that 2 and a half years ago the climate conditions in the US especially in the Southwest were much less severe than they are today. Given the design lifecycle of a vehicle is about 3-4 years, you have to place your bets way in advance. A key part of the analysis is cost, weight, supply chain capabilities, etc. So the bottom line is that 3 - 4 years ago, the LEAF was testing adequately for what the projected US severe environment was at that time.
="DaveinOlyWA"]...i stand by my statement that there is nothing Nissan has learned from any of these recent developments in Phoenix...
edatoakrun said:="DaveinOlyWA"]...i stand by my statement that there is nothing Nissan has learned from any of these recent developments in Phoenix...
Actually, I think Nissan is learning a lot-about the psychological frailties of American car buyers.
BEVs have many advantages of over ICEVs, but even those few who actually own and drive BEVs, seem to be obsessed with the few disadvantages.
The very hot Southwest Climate was expected to lead to faster battery degradation, than for other regions where LEAFs are sold.
The much hotter than normal climate in the Southwest over the 2011-12 period has exacerbated this problem, as should be expected. Exactly how much, is a technical question, now being investigated.
The near-hysterical response by some LEAF owners, however, may be a revelation to Nissan.
DaveinOlyWA said:i think we can all agree that the weather has changed for the worse MUCH faster than we had "hoped". lets face it. for years we were warned this day would come and it may not be here yet but what we are seeing is a pretty good representation of what we can expect.
There was nothing in their public statements to suggest that. As a matter of fact, Mark Perry is "on record" as saying that a TMS is not needed for the Leaf for places like Arizona (2010 article by Darryl Siry, with quotes from Mark Perry responding). Basically, they denied it would be a problem. Are you saying that Nissan expected it, but didn't disclose it prior to the sale? I guess Americans are funny about stuff like that; they expect the manufacturer to disclose facts that would materially affect their purchase decision. Imagine people getting "hysterical" when their $35,000 purchase is losing battery capacity 3-5 times as fast as Nissan stated would happen--no matter how closely they follow the recommendations to preserve battery capacity. Who would have thought it possible?edatoakrun said:The very hot Southwest Climate was expected to lead to faster battery degradation, than for other regions where LEAFs are sold.
Nissan position seems to be very different with early adopters trying to help market the Leaf and concerned about Leaf future. We already did a lot of work here how to protect battery from dropping capacity, however it will be much easier if Nissan will disclose more info as well provide guidance how to effectively cool battery during summermdh said:I think Nissan is not helping themselves with owners being obsessed or concerned with the disadvantages. No degradation warranty, no battery refresh program and almost no bragging/marketing about their technology. In Silicon Valley, we embrace a thing called net promoter scores (NPS). It basically asks owners if you would recommend a product to friends and family. Very valuable tool. Nps drives a company to success when it is fully embraced.
Herm said:DaveinOlyWA said:i think we can all agree that the weather has changed for the worse MUCH faster than we had "hoped". lets face it. for years we were warned this day would come and it may not be here yet but what we are seeing is a pretty good representation of what we can expect.
Dave I think its time to start the mass migration to Canada, before they close the border.. you are much closer, you start and then I will follow.. pull the kids out of school tomorrow before its too late and the sky ignites!
DaveinOlyWA said:soon the Summer Olympics will start. England is expected to have weather like ours. it will be interesting to see how "Summery" their weather will be
I must have missed something because I don't recall that it has been established that the climate in Phoenix has been "much hotter than normal." In fact, I would classify this summer as pretty good so far. Certainly right now I am loving our local weather. We have had a couple of weeks of primarily 95-103, as opposed to 105-110. I will even go so far as to speculate that our recent cooler weather is responsible for my still having capacity bar #11.edatoakrun said:The much hotter than normal climate in the Southwest over the 2011-12 period has exacerbated this problem, as should be expected.
leafkabob said:I must have missed something because I don't recall that it has been established that the climate in Phoenix has been "much hotter than normal." ..edatoakrun said:The much hotter than normal climate in the Southwest over the 2011-12 period has exacerbated this problem, as should be expected.
DaveinOlyWA said:but one thing i did remember is that it got pretty cold at night like 60's and 70's. apparently that is no longer the case.
DaveinOlyWA said:i concur. i live in the Phoenix area in the early 80's and it was hot back then but not like it is now. i dont remember (not that that is unusual) a temperature over say 102, 103?? in fact, it generally did not hit 100 other than maybe 3-4 times a month. today if it DOESNT hit 100 3-4 times a week, Phoenicians think the Ice Age is coming
but one thing i did remember is that it got pretty cold at night like 60's and 70's. apparently that is no longer the case.
Yes, and nighttime summer temps in Death Valley don't drop much either, for a related reason: http://www.nps.gov/deva/naturescience/weather-and-climate.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;shrink said:DaveinOlyWA said:i concur. i live in the Phoenix area in the early 80's and it was hot back then but not like it is now. i dont remember (not that that is unusual) a temperature over say 102, 103?? in fact, it generally did not hit 100 other than maybe 3-4 times a month. today if it DOESNT hit 100 3-4 times a week, Phoenicians think the Ice Age is coming
but one thing i did remember is that it got pretty cold at night like 60's and 70's. apparently that is no longer the case.
I've only lived in Phoenix for 8 years and I'm no weather expert, but I suspect part of the phenomena is the heat island effect. In short, all the concrete holds in the heat and releases it when the sun goes down:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0922greencolumn0922.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
mwalsh said:DaveinOlyWA said:but one thing i did remember is that it got pretty cold at night like 60's and 70's. apparently that is no longer the case.
Desert environments are supposed to bleed off heat pretty quickly once the sun has gone down. It's because there isn't generally any moisture to hold the heat. Even here in SoCal it can get pretty chilly overnight during a summer evening without cloud cover.
I don't dispute that it is hotter in Phoenix than it has been at times in the past, but I was specifically commenting on your position that it is much hotter than normal in Phoenix, and by extension we shouldn't be surprised that we are losing battery capacity because of that.edatoakrun said:leafkabob said:I must have missed something because I don't recall that it has been established that the climate in Phoenix has been "much hotter than normal." ..edatoakrun said:The much hotter than normal climate in the Southwest over the 2011-12 period has exacerbated this problem, as should be expected.
Yes, you did miss something.
It's known as reality. Check any historic climate database for your area, such as the several I've posted,including this one, this morning, on this thread:
Quote:
State of the Climate
Global Analysis
June 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
...The Northern Hemisphere average land temperature, where the majority of Earth's land is located, was record warmest for June. This makes three months in a row — April, May, and June — in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average...
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
You can view just how great the anomaly was for each month, in Phoenix and elsewhere, by selecting the month and year at the top of this page.
IIRC, it looks like Phoenix exceeded the norm by 2 to 5 degrees C, during nine out of ten, of the April-October months, in 2011-12.
I believe that's about the temperature increase that had been expected under the "worst case" scenario, for global heating, over the next 50 years, for the planet as a whole.
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