How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity?

[leafkabob]

As someone who is fortunate enough to not live in in a climate where I would be a victim of this issue, it dismays me to see basically no action on Nissan's part to alleviate owners' concerns. At the same time I am heartened to hear some positive suggestions for how Nissan should handle the issue appearing on the thread.

Given the whole Faux-news led attack on Chevy Volt 'fire' myths that are still being promulgated as facts to this day, if Nissan is really serious about EVs, they should get out ahead of the issue before it becomes viral. Personally I think a proactive message ("We've observed unexpected results in hot climates such as Arizona & Texas, so we are going to work with those owners to solve the problem.") coupled some sort of restitution for those who've lost capacity would go a long way. The restitution could be tricky, at a minimum it should be something that gets the owners what they expected from the vehicle. I would prefer an offer to help them become part of the solution, e.g. adding instrumentation to replacement batteries and working with the owners to insure the problem is fixed. The costs to such an action can be written off and can be cited in the future as source of customer commitment (which is priceless).

While it is becoming rarer in this day of no-frills sales, a company that shows that the customer comes first almost always wins out the end.

Nicely said. Nissan could have turned this into a positive, but instead have royally botched it.

 

[Reddy]

i think buying the cars back and selling them at a discount in WA or somewhere heat is not an issue is a great idea. this allows people who normally would not be able to afford an EV to get into one. even one with a 50 mile range would more than fill "someone's" needs and may hook them enough to eventually trade it in on a new LEAF.

Hey for 15K, I might consider trading mine for an AZ leaf. :shock: I only need 20 miles or so of real range. But then I'd have to keep it fully charged instead at the 5-7 bars I have it at now.
-Reddy

 

[cwerdna]

As I have said earlier, this is an edge condition situation, and that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected.

I see you are suggesting that there may not be an issue. Can you explain exactly how that could be (explanation should fit already known information)? Perhaps there is a conspiracy in Phoenix by formerly dedicated Leaf owners to undermine Nissan's progress in EV? The level of battery capacity loss is normal? How do you know the issue will be "corrected"?

Edge case, sure.... whatever. The problem is that cars have been sold to people in AZ and TX who are experiencing apparent capacity loss.

I think it's time for OrientExpress to be the 2nd person on my ignore list. I guess I'll remove him once one of the following happens: Nissan provides a decent remedy, Nissan says that capacity loss in AZ and TX is actually not happening and can prove it, OrientExpress swaps cars w/an AZ or TX owner w/2-3+ bars lost.

 

[OrientExpress]

As I have said earlier, this is an edge condition situation, and that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected.

And as we see, this is exactly what is happening. But be forewarned, do not expect a overnight solution, but a careful and well thought out one.

Also don't be surprised if parts are removed from the customer cars that are currently being investigated, and replaced with new ones. This is so that individual suspect components can be investigated in more detail in a laboratory setting. This means don't be surprised if these cars come back with all of their bars restored.

Lastly, don't be surprised or outraged when the details of the investigation are not shared with you. What matters is that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected within the existing manufacturer TSB process.

 

[thankyouOB]

i wouldnt expect a relaxed, wait-and-see attitude from a majority of hot hot posters here.
that may be a good thing or not (as they have shone a light on an interesting phenomena with the Leaf).

Recall we had the very same level of passion and over-the-top emotion 15 months ago around the delay in delivery and "line-jumping."
that has all been resolved, as far as I can tell.
Nissan will likely handle this well and determine a solution. I would like to see some official response though, one that let's us know what is going on.

Can one of the hot hot folks remind me of how long ago this issue surfaced?
my memory is that it was about 4-6 weeks.

by the way, is Nissan borrowing the impacted cars; or testing them while the drivers keep them? how many?
I have had a hard time determining from the posts what exactly is going on.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i find it a bit surprising that people are discounting what OE is saying. his scenario has been done several times in the past. as far as not getting an explanation, some have chosen that route, others have chosen to provide a half truth.

either way, his analogy of the hysteria this site has gone thru is pretty much spot on.

we have taken Nissan's "slow" response to mean apathy to the affected situation. that is a pretty big leap.

now we can debate the cost of battery packs forever, but i highly doubt that it costs Nissan a significant amount of money. i still believe that EVERYTHING that is going on right now they knew about and were probably hoping the issue could be held at bay until Sept or whenever the battery plant starts running.

i am guessing it would cost Nissan no more than $3-4,000 to retrofit a new pack after TN comes online but guessing it would be triple that if done now.

so now you can ban me too

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i wouldnt expect a relaxed, wait-and-see attitude from a majority of hot hot posters here.
that may be a good thing or not (as they have shone a light on an interesting phenomena with the Leaf).

Recall we had the very same level of passion and over-the-top emotion 15 months ago around the delay in delivery and "line-jumping."
that has all been resolved, as far as I can tell.
Nissan will likely handle this well and determine a solution. I would like to see some official response though, one that let's us know what is going on.

Can one of the hot hot folks remind me of how long ago this issue surfaced?
my memory is that it was about 4-6 weeks.

by the way, is Nissan borrowing the impacted cars; or testing them while the drivers keep them? how many?
I have had a hard time determining from the posts what exactly is going on.

very well put. i think the overriding problem here is that a large percentage of the population here is in management positions where part of the job is analyzing trends, facts and results to predict the needs, actions or outcomes in the future.

many have taken that skill to the extreme here but unlike work where you have inside knowledge to the mechanics of the business, we dont have that here. we are all outsiders.

sure there is a problem, but is it an immediate threat to the safety of the LEAF owner? no.

i tried to see how many people were in imminent threat of parking their vehicle to search out alternate transportation...not much there either. guessing there is probably a handful here.

right now battery modules i am guessing are in very short supply. are they not one of the reasons for restricted LEAF manufacturing now?

i also mentioned this before but i thought it strange that Nissan was building a battery plant with a 200,000 unit capacity next to a car plant with a 150,000 unit capacity? i guess it does not seem so strange anymore now does it?

 

[LEAFfan]

Also don't be surprised if parts are removed from the customer cars that are currently being investigated, and replaced with new ones. This is so that individual suspect components can be investigated in more detail in a laboratory setting. This means don't be surprised if these cars come back with all of their bars restored.

Someone else on here had their bar restored, but it disappeared again a few weeks later so obviously that didn't fix the issue. If their 'fix' is to replace the packs with the same packs, that will restore all the bars, but may only last 7 months or so until they lose a bar again and won't really solve the issue. What would solve the issue is a different type of battery chemistry that can take high ambient temps, such as the Toshiba battery which is ready now and has been put in the MiEV and Honda FitEV. Who knows, maybe Nissan has a similar battery ready, but I doubt it.

 

[OrientExpress]

What Nissan is doing is essentially a biopsy on these sample cars.

The difference is that if they remove stuff, they will replace it with good parts.

What they learn will help with the appropriate response.

 

[RegGuheert]

In the meantime, I suspect it is business as usual at Nissan dealers in Phoenix. Prospective buyers likely are still not being told what the *real* life expectancy of their battery is based on customer experiences there.

The point is that taking a few cars into the lab is an important step for Nissan to take, but they already have ALL the data they need to correct their public communications regarding expected range in very hot climates. Have they done this? No!

I'm sorry, but no matter how I look at it there is little sense in purchasing an EV with a battery life less than two years. The only way Nissan has been able to sell the LEAF in Phoenix is to make their customers believe that they will not have an unusable vehicle until *at least* five years have passed. IMO, Nissan can no longer legally make the "80% after five years" claim to prospective customers in Phoenix.

 

[Stoaty]

Lastly, don't be surprised or outraged when the details of the investigation are not shared with you. What matters is that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected within the existing manufacturer TSB process.

This reminds me of beta testing I have done for a major software company. When I filed bugs sometimes they would come back "As Designed" or "Design Limitation". I suspect that is what is happening here (but hope to be proven wrong). This problem is likely a "Design Limitation" that shows up in the very hot areas. That is why OrientExpress can still say "if there is an issue"--there may not be an "issue" if the Leaf is functioning "As Designed". Of course, the Phoenix folks may not agree that there is no issue or that it is even reasonable to question whether there is an "issue". :twisted:

Last, don't forget that this problem was accurately predicted two and a half years ago:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/nissan-leaf-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

yep, apparently spot on, Elon Musk said some similar things. Mark Perry is probably feeling a little foolish today:
"It also appears Nissan has cut corners on the most critical aspect of electric vehicle technology — the battery pack. The key engineering trade-off Nissan has made is opting not to include active thermal management, where the temperature of the pack is controlled by an HVAC system similar to what cools the passenger cabin on a hot day. Instead, Nissan has opted to use only an internal fan that circulates the air within the sealed pack to evenly distribute the heat, which escapes by passive radiation through the pack’s external case.

Thermal management in lithium-ion battery packs is critical to the long-term performance and quality of the battery. The manganese oxide pack is sensitive to high temperature and the primary consequence is that the pack will degrade more rapidly than one with active thermal management. This problem will be worse in hotter climates such as Phoenix, which Nissan has selected as one of its launch cities.

Mark Perry, Nissan’s director of product planning for the United States, dismissed the importance of active thermal management."

Lastly, don't be surprised or outraged when the details of the investigation are not shared with you. What matters is that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected within the existing manufacturer TSB process.

This reminds me of beta testing I have done for a major software company. When I filed bugs sometimes they would come back "As Designed" or "Design Limitation". I suspect that is what is happening here (but hope to be proven wrong). This problem is likely a "Design Limitation" that shows up in the very hot areas. That is why OrientExpress can still say "if there is an issue"--there may not be an "issue" if the Leaf is functioning "As Designed". Of course, the Phoenix folks may not agree that there is no issue or that it is even reasonable to question whether there is an "issue". :twisted:

Last, don't forget that this problem was accurately predicted two and a half years ago:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/nissan-leaf-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[OrientExpress]

Last, don't forget that this problem was accurately predicted two and a half years ago:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/nissan-leaf-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Another viewpoint is that 2 and a half years ago the climate conditions in the US especially in the Southwest were much less severe than they are today. Given the design lifecycle of a vehicle is about 3-4 years, you have to place your bets way in advance. A key part of the analysis is cost, weight, supply chain capabilities, etc. So the bottom line is that 3 - 4 years ago, the LEAF was testing adequately for what the projected US severe environment was at that time.

Now things have changed quite dramatically in the last 2 years. The US is experiencing record heat and drought, and the environment in the Southwest is much closer to the Arabian Peninsula than it has ever been. If there is a severe environment battery pack part in Nissan's configuration options for the LEAF, then that is probably going to be considered in looking at future iterations of the car in the US. Of course expect cars with that severe duty-configuration to cost more than regular-duty LEAFs.

As the Phoenix area is returned to an uninhabitable desert, the need for even more severe-duty equipment and cars will be necessary.

Here is a photo a friend of mine took of last Wednesday's dust storm, the increased frequency of these storms is amazing to me.

 

[ztanos]

The car won't become unusable after 2 years. However, if you don't have anything within ten miles of your house then you won't be able to drive it anywhere you need to go. But that doesn't mean that the car won't be able to work. Still turns on, drives at full power and if you were to replace the battery would return to full functionality. It sucks that the range diminishes so quickly due to the heat. I wish we would know the magic number, but I am resigned to the fact that we may never know.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

thanks for the link Stoaty. i had been looking for it for quite a while. this article is one reason why i decided to lease. since that decision, i have waffled several times over whether it was the right thing to do. i put down $10,000 to reduce my inflated MF hit and to reduce overall cost but at great risk to myself. its been 18 months and nothing has happened but still have 18 months to go.

its funny but this article gave me the impression i would see degradation by now which i have not. once again we are missing very valuable information here.

what we have is Phoenix with degradation. other warm areas where some have it, some dont. and cooler areas where nearly no one has any loss.

so, Perry was probably right in a sense that under normal circumstances, degradation is small. the "fan" in the case is something i had forgotten and have been unable to verify its presence elsewhere (if someone has drawings or schematics from Nissan please post) which throws any ambient temp guesses i had completely out the window. it also illustrates that nothing happening right now is a surprise to Nissan. once again, a calculated risk gone wrong imho

this probably accounts for me not seeing any loss "IF" degradation does not start until you hit 30C since it would have to be a combination of both pack and OAT temps. we have had several days that would qualify even in the Northwest here due to radiant temps normally seen in direct sunlight but i had the advantage of rarely if ever starting a charge right after driving since i manually charge and a typical day would be do arrive home at 6 PM. maybe plug in at 8 PM, charge till 11 PM and unplug which would be the process several times a week or occasionally be home at 6 PM and plug in at 11 PM to allow full charge for a longer commute the next day.

to illustrate to others how easy it is to charge a LEAF my then 4 YO Son was the one who plugged and unplugged the LEAF most of the time so no, i did not have to "get up off the couch" for most of these manual charging sessions...

 

[EVDRIVER]

There is no fan. This keeps coming up and it does not exist in the pack.

 

[KJD]

The car won't become unusable after 2 years. However, if you don't have anything within ten miles of your house then you won't be able to drive it anywhere you need to go. But that doesn't mean that the car won't be able to work. Still turns on, drives at full power and if you were to replace the battery would return to full functionality. It sucks that the range diminishes so quickly due to the heat. I wish we would know the magic number, but I am resigned to the fact that we may never know.

The main thing that is stopping us from finding the magic number is the fact that we do not have a good information on what the battery temp really is. For example 6 battery temp bars is somewhere between 74 and 98f.

The car already has the sensors to monitor battery temp. We just need someone to build a decent temp display device and make it available.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

There is no fan. This keeps coming up and it does not exist in the pack.

that is unfortunately the impression i had as well...bummer

 

[surfingslovak]

what we have is Phoenix with degradation. other warm areas where some have it, some dont. and cooler areas where nearly no one has any loss.

We don't have enough data, at least not enough to allow any conclusions, and I don't expect this to change. The few dozen vehicles we are talking about is an anecdotal sample, which suggests that there is a strong correlation (70 to 80%) between average ambient temperature and Gid count. This already takes individual differences into account, since there will never be two vehicles, even in the same locale, which will be exactly the same. It's because owners won't be able to replicate the same usage pattern, even if they tried.

Be it as it may, there is no magic number. Batteries degrade with use, and high temperatures and high SOC accelerate this process. While it's likely is a non-linear relationship, and degradation could speed up dramatically at some point, there is no demarcation line. Aside from the 120 F number quoted in the owner's manual, which will void the warranty, it's shades of grey, not black and white.

The following table details Volt's TMS, and I referenced it often on the forum. The LG Chem batteries GM uses in the Volt are very similar to ours. From what we have learned so far, we know that it's OK to leave the Volt at about 23% SOC for an extended period of time. We also know that the TMS won't attempt to cool the battery if it's below 86 F and the vehicle is not connected to a power source. Both of these conditions represent an engineering trade-off, and I would expect both of them to apply to the Leaf.

The reports from NREL are extremely useful, and they have a well-equipped lab, but the majority of their studies is based on graphite/NCA cells, which have different properties. While they give us good idea about the relationship between environmental factors, SOC and battery degradation, they should not be taken literally.

Click to open

 

[LEAFfan]

Instead, Nissan has opted to use only an internal fan that circulates the air within the sealed pack to evenly distribute the heat, which escapes by passive radiation through the pack’s external case.

There is no internal fan. Please show a photo of it if it exists.