Hansen : Climate Change Is Here — And Worse Than We Thought

[evnow]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here--and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html?hpid=z3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Commentary by Romm.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/04/640391/must-read-hansen-climate-change-is-here-and-worse-than-we-thought/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When I testified before the Senate in the hot summer of 1988 , I warned of the kind of future that climate change would bring to us and our planet. I painted a grim picture of the consequences of steadily increasing temperatures, driven by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.

But I have a confession to make: I was too optimistic.

My projections about increasing global temperature have been proved true. But I failed to fully explore how quickly that average rise would drive an increase in extreme weather.

In a new analysis of the past six decades of global temperatures, which will be published Monday, my colleagues and I have revealed a stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for our present.

This is not a climate model or a prediction but actual observations of weather events and temperatures that have happened. Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.

 

[derkraut]

I dunno.....maybe global warming is good? We need more people to move to places like North Dakota, Alaska, etc. This may help alleviate the congestion in places like LAX, PHX, NYC, etc. What do you think? :lol:

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

worse than who thought?? Jimmy Carter told us 40 years ago that it would be "tolerable" if we immediately cut our emissions in half. well that did not happen and he warned us this would happen and he pretty much nailed it.

it is like any early adopter; the hybrids, EVs, etc. most people think we are crazy or are so rich we have nothing better to do with our money (i am far from that!)

well, that is what they thought of him. he was one of the most educated and brightest presidents we ever had and it showed. too bad we were too stupid to notice

 

[philaphonic]

worse than who thought?? Jimmy Carter told us 40 years ago that it would be "tolerable" if we immediately cut our emissions in half. well that did not happen and he warned us this would happen and he pretty much nailed it.

it is like any early adopter; the hybrids, EVs, etc. most people think we are crazy or are so rich we have nothing better to do with our money (i am far from that!)

well, that is what they thought of him. he was one of the most educated and brightest presidents we ever had and it showed. too bad we were too stupid to notice

+1

 

[Herm]

Hockey Stick Hansen?.. people still listen to this guy?

 

[WetEV]

Hockey Stick Hansen?.. people still listen to this guy?

At least slam the people for the thing they did...

But let us get away from people. Let us talk about conservation of energy.

Energy is conserved, correct?

 

[Alric]

Hockey Stick Hansen?.. people still listen to this guy?

It was Michael Mann, not Hansen who published the initial hockey stick. Hansen is one of many that have since corroborated the original publication.

Yes. People listen to him because he publishes peer reviewed articles in respected scientific journals as opposed to most deniers.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2527990/?tool=pmcentrez" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Herm]

It was Michael Mann, not Hansen who published the initial hockey stick. Hansen is one of many that have since corroborated the original publication.

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

 

[Alric]

It was Michael Mann, not Hansen who published the initial hockey stick. Hansen is one of many that have since corroborated the original publication.

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

What information can you provide that would disprove the conclusions of their papers? Are you a published researcher?

 

[WetEV]

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

Still didn't answer the question. Is the only thing you can do is insult?

Energy is conserved, correct?

 

[derkraut]

worse than who thought?? Jimmy Carter told us 40 years ago that it would be "tolerable" if we immediately cut our emissions in half. well that did not happen and he warned us this would happen and he pretty much nailed it.

it is like any early adopter; the hybrids, EVs, etc. most people think we are crazy or are so rich we have nothing better to do with our money (i am far from that!)

well, that is what they thought of him. he was one of the most educated and brightest presidents we ever had and it showed. too bad we were too stupid to notice

Well...I wasn't too stupid to notice! I remember taking out a 30yr mortgage on our house @ 15.7% interest rate. I also remember our 300+ Americans held as hostages @ our embassy in Iran until the day after Carter vacated the White House, when they were released. I voted for him because he was honest, and a Christian. But IMHO, he was one of the most ineffective, inept presidents in our history.

 

[WetEV]

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

So what would it take to convince you?

Would an ice-free Arctic Ocean convince you?

Would the changing the southern USA into a desert convince you?

Would the abandonment of Miami to the rising ocean convince you?

Is there any event or sequence of events that change your mind?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

worse than who thought?? Jimmy Carter told us 40 years ago that it would be "tolerable" if we immediately cut our emissions in half. well that did not happen and he warned us this would happen and he pretty much nailed it.

it is like any early adopter; the hybrids, EVs, etc. most people think we are crazy or are so rich we have nothing better to do with our money (i am far from that!)

well, that is what they thought of him. he was one of the most educated and brightest presidents we ever had and it showed. too bad we were too stupid to notice

Well...I wasn't too stupid to notice! I remember taking out a 30yr mortgage on our house @ 15.7% interest rate. I also remember our 300+ Americans held as hostages @ our embassy in Iran until the day after Carter vacated the White House, when they were released. I voted for him because he was honest, and a Christian. But IMHO, he was one of the most ineffective, inept presidents in our history.

if you took a realistic look at what it would take to get us out of our financial crisis and i dont mean creating money out of thin air to buy us another 6-12 months, you would wish the "Carter" days were back with us. He knew (or rather listened to the best minds in the country) how far reaching the destruction our continued reliance on foreign oil would be. He knew that as long as the oil flowed cheaply (and its hidden costs were effectively masked) we would ignore the option to develop energy programs within the US which would have essentially created the same buildup that Reagan instituted but in building the internal infrastructure of the country instead of our ability to fight. now, no matter what, the military budget would have been huge so most of what we have now would still be there

but since none of his policies were implemented correctly or completely, we will never really know what he could have done and like every President, he focused most of his energies on certain things so i cant say i am happy with how he performed in other areas, but i dont remember when this topic started to address those other areas, so forgive me if i missed that.

 

[evnow]

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

By denigrading Hansen you just show who you are.

Future generations will never forgive deniers who are responsible for billion deaths and miserable life in the future. All based on "scientists" like Rush Limbaugh & Sarah Palin.

 

[AndyH]

Abstracts are ok in a pinch, but they're kinda dry. Bring on the pictures. :lol:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX2KyF0p-xU[/youtube]

It is so frustrating and heartbreaking to watch this slow-motion train wreck.

 

[AndyH]

Thanks for the correction, I cant keep track of all these quacks..

By denigrading Hansen you just show who you are.

Future generations will never forgive deniers who are responsible for billion deaths and miserable life in the future. All based on "scientists" like Rush Limbaugh & Sarah Palin.

Now that Muller @ BEST has caught up with 1980s science, the denial crowd is down one supporter. That's gotta be stressing them some - and maybe the increasing attacks on 'real' climate scientists is a sign of that stress. The venom toward Dr. Hansen - at least formerly a Republican - is telling. Maybe "cannibalism" is the beginning of the end of denial?

 

[Alric]

I am not optimistic about Mueller's results and public appearances. He was interviewed by democracy now and it was obvious Mueller shills for natural gas and “clean fracking” by using a fallacy of the middle. He even says that EVs are regular cars if powered by coal. A myth debunked by the union of concerned scientists.

http://t.co/zvHs6IlM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[WetEV]

I am not optimistic about Mueller's results and public appearances. He was interviewed by democracy now and it was obvious Mueller shills for natural gas and “clean fracking” by using a fallacy of the middle. He even says that EVs are regular cars if powered by coal. A myth debunked by the union of concerned scientists.

EVs powered by coal are slightly better in CO2 release to the best hybrids when powered by oil. Few places have 100% coal power. EVs are about twice as good if the hybrid is powered by synfuel produced from coal.

I'd far rather run on Wyoming coal than Ali Hosseini Khamenei's oil, even if it wasn't cleaner.


http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportation-solutions/advanced-vehicle-technologies/electric-cars/model-e-faq.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

I am not optimistic about Mueller's results and public appearances. He was interviewed by democracy now and it was obvious Mueller shills for natural gas and “clean fracking” by using a fallacy of the middle. He even says that EVs are regular cars if powered by coal. A myth debunked by the union of concerned scientists.

http://t.co/zvHs6IlM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks for this link!

I listened to an NPR Science Friday interview last week and came to the same conclusion - shill for fossil fuels and his own books.

http://sciencefriday.com/segment/08/03/2012/changing-views-about-a-changing-climate.html

This denial stuff is really difficult for me to wrap my mind around. While in uniform, projects/missions were roughly processed in three phases/stages. The initial fact finding stages was where data are collected, analyzed, and debated. Once consensus is reached, the next phase is finding the best solution - eliminating the threat (destroy, impair, jam, etc.) or planning around it. Then execute the plan. While dissenting opinions are highly valued in the analysis phase, once beyond that point, deniers/dissenters are pulled out of the team and if necessary, reprimanded.

While I'm certainly not in favor of military control of the world (quite the opposite), I sometimes wish we had a process that would allow climate deniers to be rounded up and stored in Guantanamo until we were well into solving the problem.

 

[AndyH]

EVs powered by coal are slightly better in CO2 release to the best hybrids when powered by oil. Few places have 100% coal power. EVs are about twice as good if the hybrid is powered by synfuel produced from coal.

I'd far rather run on Wyoming coal than Ali Hosseini Khamenei's oil, even if it wasn't cleaner.

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportation-solutions/advanced-vehicle-technologies/electric-cars/model-e-faq.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I really do appreciate your anti-foreign oil view, Wet. But for me, when I put nationalism on one side of the scale and climate change on the other, eliminating use of foreign oil no longer seems to be worth the immediate action. Unless one of you respected gents (truly!) can show me a better perspective, Bill McKibben has my full attention:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719
Three numbers:
The First Number: 2° Celsius
The Second Number: 565 Gigatons
The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons