GM: 1 Million 30 MPG-Plus Vehicle Sales in 2012

[DaveinOlyWA]

That makes it hard for me to believe that sales goals were not met

My point is simply that there is no way Toyota's sales plan for the Prius in Japan looked like this:

+--------------+
| Prius sales  |
| (thousands)  |
+------+-------+
| Year | Japan |
+------+-------+
| 1997 |   0.3 |
| 1998 |  17.7 |
| 1999 |  15.2 |
| 2000 |  12.5 |
| 2001 |  11.0 |
| 2002 |   6.7 |
+------+-------+

As such, they clearly did not make plan for the Prius in Japan in the early years. Perhaps for year one, but not after that.

doesnt make sense but maybe demand in US made it financially feasible to ship and sell in US? remember they were going for $19,995 as a compact which was a LOT more than comparable compacts at the time

Both the 2004 and 2005 models (granted the newer and much more desired "Iconic" models) had several quota increases that really illustrated Toyota's lack of planning when determining expected sales volumes. Wait times of 7+ months like mine were very common

 

[cwerdna]

The C/D numbers definitely disagree. Unfortunately, they don't seem to have that article up on their website; it's in the Feb. 2013 issue, "Upfront" section titled 'The Spark is Gone'.

The chart's now at http://www.caranddriver.com/features/the-spark-is-gone-whats-going-on-with-electric-cars-feature" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The caption is "Coming Up Short".

 

[RegGuheert]

The C/D numbers definitely disagree. Unfortunately, they don't seem to have that article up on their website; it's in the Feb. 2013 issue, "Upfront" section titled 'The Spark is Gone'.

The chart's now at http://www.caranddriver.com/features/the-spark-is-gone-whats-going-on-with-electric-cars-feature" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The caption is "Coming Up Short".

Thanks for the link!

The chart in C/D only covers the U.S. market. If you look at the world market or the Japan market, you see a very different picture, as discussed. Also, why start the EV curves in 2008? Sure, maybe SOME EVs were selling then, but no mass-produced EVs from major auto makers were being sold until very late in 2010, basically 2011. Alternatively, why start the hybrid curve in 2000 when hybrids started sales in 1999? If you slide the 2011 EV curve up to the position where 2008 is in the current chart, you see a very different situation. (This is the best way to compare the two vehicle types in the U.S. market, BTW, since the Honda Insight went on sale in December 1999 and the Nissan LEAF went on sale in December 2010.) Finally, it would be nice to see the EV data shown as "LEAF" and "Other EVs", kind of like the "Prius" and "Other Hybrids" are shown.

As mentioned, the go-to-market strategy for Nissan with the LEAF was to only produce the LEAF in Japan for the first two years but sell it worldwide. Toyota's plan for the Prius was to limit both production and sales to Japan the first two years. There are pluses and minuses to each approach, but the bottom line is that Nissan's approach with the LEAF is outpacing Toyota's approach with the Prius.

Going forward, it seems that the LEAF may outpace the Prius no matter how you measure it. We shall see.

 

[GRA]

The C/D numbers definitely disagree. Unfortunately, they don't seem to have that article up on their website; it's in the Feb. 2013 issue, "Upfront" section titled 'The Spark is Gone'.

The chart's now at http://www.caranddriver.com/features/the-spark-is-gone-whats-going-on-with-electric-cars-feature" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The caption is "Coming Up Short".

Thanks for the link!

The chart in C/D only covers the U.S. market. If you look at the world market or the Japan market, you see a very different picture, as discussed. Also, why start the EV curves in 2008? Sure, maybe SOME EVs were selling then, but no mass-produced EVs from major auto makers were being sold until very late in 2010, basically 2011. Alternatively, why start the hybrid curve in 2000 when hybrids started sales in 1999? If you slide the 2011 EV curve up to the position where 2008 is in the current chart, you see a very different situation. (This is the best way to compare the two vehicle types in the U.S. market, BTW, since the Honda Insight went on sale in December 1999 and the Nissan LEAF went on sale in December 2010.) Finally, it would be nice to see the EV data shown as "LEAF" and "Other EVs", kind of like the "Prius" and "Other Hybrids" are shown.

The chart started in 2008 because that's when the Roadster went on sale; while it wasn't mass-produced (but then, neither are the RAV4ev, FitEV etc.) it was available in substantial numbers, and it wasn't some rinky-dink home-built conversion either. As to starting the hybrid curve in 2000, as you yourself state we're dealing with the U.S only. As I previously stated, I couldn't care less what sales of these cars are outside the U.S., as our conditions are too different. We don't buy tiny diesel-powered cars here either, so why should we care if they sell well somewhere else? We're talking about the American BEV market, not the world's.

As mentioned, the go-to-market strategy for Nissan with the LEAF was to only produce the LEAF in Japan for the first two years but sell it worldwide. Toyota's plan for the Prius was to limit both production and sales to Japan the first two years. There are pluses and minuses to each approach, but the bottom line is that Nissan's approach with the LEAF is outpacing Toyota's approach with the Prius.

Going forward, it seems that the LEAF may outpace the Prius no matter how you measure it. We shall see.

We certainly shall. So far, IMO the hybrids have it hands down, because they require no adaptation by the owners.

 

[RegGuheert]

The chart started in 2008 because that's when the Roadster went on sale; while it wasn't mass-produced (but then, neither are the RAV4ev, FitEV etc.) it was available in substantial numbers, and it wasn't some rinky-dink home-built conversion either.

Sorry, comparing a $115,000 hand-produced vehicle with an $18,800 mass-produced one makes little sense, except to try to prove a point.

 

[GRA]

The chart started in 2008 because that's when the Roadster went on sale; while it wasn't mass-produced (but then, neither are the RAV4ev, FitEV etc.) it was available in substantial numbers, and it wasn't some rinky-dink home-built conversion either.

Sorry, comparing a $115,000 hand-produced vehicle with an $18,800 mass-produced one makes little sense, except to try to prove a point.

Should we then ignore the Tesla S as well? After all, you can option one of those north of $100k without too much trouble.

 

[RegGuheert]

Should we then ignore the Tesla S as well? After all, you can option one of those north of $100k without too much trouble.

Perhaps. But it is NOT the same as the Roadster. It would be interesting to just compare mainstream products to see how things look. Prius and Insight versus LEAF versus Volt and PiP? All of the compliance cars just cloud the issue, IMO. Like the Prius, there will be a small number of early winners in the EV space.

EVs have a long history of failled or short-lived products, so it would be good to see charts with all of those excluded. The Roadster was not a failed EV, but it was short-lived. Model S can be argued to be both mass-produced and hopefully it will be long-lived. Soon, there will be some Model S cars that are below the nose-bleed section, so perhaps it makes sense to include it. But it won't make a big difference one way or the other for numbers. What Tesla has done is shown the market the way clear to EV propulsion.

2013 numbers will tell a lot about where things are going. Nissan's having a bit of a problem getting out of the gate in both the U.S. and Europe!

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

the new pricing allows one to easily get an EV for under $300 a month in leasing. take away the 70-150 a month in fuel savings and you have a pretty good deal. add a few QC's and this becomes a realistic option.

i think that my mind has been clouded by the public infrastructure I am lucky enough to live near. (The LOTT treatment plant in Downtown Oly received a chargepoint L2 in Summer of 2010 ) which really does completely change the game.

i cant even been to tell you how good it feels to do a job 43 miles away and come home in a LEAF (the jobsite had Semaconnect FREE charging available) with plenty of range left over... its just too cool and whether I pay $5 for the charge or not, its still a question of plugging in, walking 100 feet to work. coming out a few hours later with a full ready to roll LEAF!

 

[GRA]

Should we then ignore the Tesla S as well? After all, you can option one of those north of $100k without too much trouble.

Perhaps. But it is NOT the same as the Roadster. It would be interesting to just compare mainstream products to see how things look. Prius and Insight versus LEAF versus Volt and PiP? All of the compliance cars just cloud the issue, IMO. Like the Prius, there will be a small number of early winners in the EV space.

EVs have a long history of failled or short-lived products, so it would be good to see charts with all of those excluded. The Roadster was not a failed EV, but it was short-lived. Model S can be argued to be both mass-produced and hopefully it will be long-lived. Soon, there will be some Model S cars that are below the nose-bleed section, so perhaps it makes sense to include it. But it won't make a big difference one way or the other for numbers. What Tesla has done is shown the market the way clear to EV propulsion.

2013 numbers will tell a lot about where things are going. Nissan's having a bit of a problem getting out of the gate in both the U.S. and Europe!

IIRR, the Roadster's short life was due to Lotus stopping production of the Elise, as well as Tesla's U.S. exemption from not having two-stage airbags expiring at the end of 2011. Even so, I suspect there were more Roadsters built and sold than all the EV1s, 1st Gen RAV4EVs, S-10s etc. combined.

Sure, it wasn't mass market at that price (nor are $38K/73 mile EPA Leafs IMO), but it was a serial production BEV just as the S is, and it was on sale in the U.S for just short of four years (2/2008 - 1/2012); indeed, it was the only serial production BEV available in the U.S. for almost three of those years. I can see no reason whatever to exclude it or the S from the chart, as the latter, at least for January, is the top-selling BEV in the country. That's obviously just a temporary blip while they work off the backlog, but the sales are just as real. If the EV1 was a real BEV, then so are Teslas.

 

[RegGuheert]

IIRR, the Roadster's short life was due to Lotus stopping production of the Elise, as well as Tesla's U.S. exemption from not having two-stage airbags expiring at the end of 2011. Even so, I suspect there were more Roadsters built and sold than all the EV1s, 1st Gen RAV4EVs, S-10s etc. combined.

According to Wikipedia, it sold 2418 worldwide in four years. That's 1/20 the number of LEAFs sold worldwide in half the time.

Sure, it wasn't mass market at that price

I'm glad you concede my point.

(nor are $38K/73 mile EPA Leafs IMO),

That's an incredible stretch of your imagination! It's built on the same mass-production line in Oppama as the Juke and the Cube. I've seen it with my own eyes. Now it is being produced in three different factories around the world. I can drive to several local Nissan dealers and purchase one anytime. If a top-tier producer fitting the car into their standard mass-production line and selling it through their standard dealerships does not fit the definition of a mass-market vehicle, then I do not know what does.

but it was a serial production BEV just as the S is, and it was on sale in the U.S for just short of four years (2/2008 - 1/2012); indeed, it was the only serial production BEV available in the U.S. for almost three of those years.

What are the other 2 BEVs sold in 2009 and the other 8 BEVs sold in 2010 in the chart that you referenced? (I know the LEAF sold in 2010.)

I can see no reason whatever to exclude it or the S from the chart, as the latter, at least for January, is the top-selling BEV in the country. That's obviously just a temporary blip while they work off the backlog, but the sales are just as real.

Agreed, the S makes sense to include in the chart.

If the EV1 was a real BEV, then so are Teslas.

GM never sold a single EV1. It doesn't fit, IMO. Or are you arguing that the author should move the EV timeline all the way back to 1990?

 

[GRA]

IIRR, the Roadster's short life was due to Lotus stopping production of the Elise, as well as Tesla's U.S. exemption from not having two-stage airbags expiring at the end of 2011. Even so, I suspect there were more Roadsters built and sold than all the EV1s, 1st Gen RAV4EVs, S-10s etc. combined.

According to Wikipedia, it sold 2418 worldwide in four years. That's 1/20 the number of LEAFs sold worldwide in half the time.

Uh huh, and how many RAV4EVs is Toyota planning to sell in the next few years - 2,600? Or how about the FFE, FitEV or even the Coda? They have all been production BEVs, and yet most of them have sales rates that make the Roadster's look robust by comparison.

Sure, it wasn't mass market at that price

I'm glad you concede my point.

(nor are $38K/73 mile EPA Leafs IMO),

That's an incredible stretch of your imagination! It's built on the same mass-production line in Oppama as the Juke and the Cube. I've seen it with my own eyes. Now it is being produced in three different factories around the world. I can drive to several local Nissan dealers and purchase one anytime. If a top-tier producer fitting the car into their standard mass-production line and selling it through their standard dealerships does not fit the definition of a mass-market vehicle, then I do not know what does.

Simple, one that sells for a mass-market price, has mass-market utility and sells in mass-market volumes, and none of the current BEVs meet all three conditions.

but it was a serial production BEV just as the S is, and it was on sale in the U.S for just short of four years (2/2008 - 1/2012); indeed, it was the only serial production BEV available in the U.S. for almost three of those years.

What are the other 2 BEVs sold in 2009 and the other 8 BEVs sold in 2010 in the chart that you referenced? (I know the LEAF sold in 2010.)

Beats me, which is why I thought it might refer to world rather than U.S. totals. I think you were the one who said it was U.S. only, and I went with you. As to 2010, I assume the Volt would be included, as I think it refers to all PEVs rather than BEVs only. I wish it were labelled better to show exactly what the chart included and left out.

I can see no reason whatever to exclude it or the S from the chart, as the latter, at least for January, is the top-selling BEV in the country. That's obviously just a temporary blip while they work off the backlog, but the sales are just as real.

Agreed, the S makes sense to include in the chart.

If the EV1 was a real BEV, then so are Teslas.

GM never sold a single EV1. It doesn't fit, IMO. Or are you arguing that the author should move the EV timeline all the way back to 1990?

No, my point is that the EV1 was unquestionably a real EV, and so is the Tesla. I'm well aware that GM only leased the EV1, but I'm using 'sales' in the sense of 'delivered to private, paying customers', regardless of what the financial or final dispostion arrangements were; the same thing applies to Leaf 'sales'. The timeline clearly refers to those EVs designed for and available for 'sale' in the 21st century.