GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
IssacZachary said:
2018 Nissan Leaf S
Maintenance: $3,244

Over $3k in maintenance? What have I been missing in maintenance costs? In 4 years, I've put maybe $300 into the Leaf: wiper blades, a new TCU and windshield wiper fluid. Tire rotation is free, air filter was inspected and is still OK. Brake fluid still is OK. What else is there?

IssacZachary said:
If you trade in a Leaf every 5 years or less it is not going to be very economical because of the terrible resell value. If you keep it for many more years you end up with either a degraded battery out of warranty or you'll end up having to pay for a battery that now costs more than what your vehicle is worth.

I've yet to lose a battery bar at 40k miles and 4 years. If I lose capacity at the rate I have for the first 4 years, I'll need a battery replacement about 2025 or so. Maybe later if I then use the Leaf for only in town driving. And by then, I expect that the Leaf will be very very obsolete. No high speed internet, not enough cup holders, not self driving, no builtin VR XBox and no in car espresso machine. Obsolete.


IssacZachary said:
To me I think with the proper TMS Nissan could nail this and make a car with a battery that lasts even in hot climates. But maybe Nissan doesn't want to do that. But it seems like Tesla has gotten this down, which is going to give their cars better longevity and a better resell value.

Too simplistic. Yes, Tesla has done better. However, not every BEV with a TMS does better for battery life than the Leaf, even in hot places.


What I want, and what Nissan seems to be trying to produce, is a low cost simple battery with good enough life. Safer than gasoline and T esla type batteries.
 
SageBrush said:
Joe6pack said:
I am sorry your circumstances changed, but anytime you buy a depreciating asset, finance it and hold it for a short period of time, you are going to lose.
Your capacity for self-deception is a wonder to behold.
The 50% market value drop IZ has seen in one year is on a 5 year old car.

He paid too much. I paid $5,500 when I bought at the end of my lease back in October.
 
Interesting how perspective differ.

In my view, Tesla M3 starts at 50K. So with 57% depreciation, 5 yr TCO is actually 29K (not 20K). And Leaf has 3K PG&E rebate. With 70% depreciationthe TCO come down to 19K (not 21K). 10K cost difference over 5 yrs.

At this time next year, maybe the 35K M3 will be available. By then we will also have Leaf 2019 with the bigger battery, and Tesla will no longer have the 7.5K federal rebate. Will be interesting to see how depreciation compares for the 2019 models.
 
Joe6pack said:
SageBrush said:
Joe6pack said:
I am sorry your circumstances changed, but anytime you buy a depreciating asset, finance it and hold it for a short period of time, you are going to lose.
Your capacity for self-deception is a wonder to behold.
The 50% market value drop IZ has seen in one year is on a 5 year old car.

He paid too much. I paid $5,500 when I bought at the end of my lease back in October.
Apples to Oranges comparison
 
Joe6pack said:
SageBrush said:
Joe6pack said:
Yup. You picked the most expensive LEAF. According to your same link, the TCO of a LEAF S over 5 years is $36,000. That's where the cheapest Model 3 starts. Thus saying the total cost to own a LEAF is on par with a Model 3 is nonsense.
That is where the Model 3 starts **to buy**

IZ is correct in his comments -- the LEAF is expensive because the battery is crap.

Lol. Completely unqualified statement..
Few people in their right mind buy a new LEAF -- they lease due to concerns over the pack.
Monthly costs are in the $350 - $400 a month range depending on model

In nine years they spend between 350*9*12 and 400*9*12 dollars ... and *still* get to deal with degradation problems, have piss poor DCFC, a vastly inferior charging network, and half the range of a Model 3 LR ... at best.

This is not even worth talking about.
 
What, are you high. If they lease multiple LEAFs, they are clearly happy with them. If not, they move on. Can't have it both ways.
 
SageBrush said:
Few people in their right mind buy a new LEAF -- they lease due to concerns over the pack.

I've bought two Leafs, both SLs.

The first one net cost to me was $26,500. Drove for 21 months, then totaled when hit from behind while stopped. Insurance settlements totaled $22894. Monthly cost was $172 plus $25 electric power. Plus a few QCs. Other than wiper fluid, no maintenance expenses. Only trip to dealer was for the battery check.

Net cost for the second one after taxes and tax breaks was $24,300. Based on a 9 year life, that is about $225 per month. I'm hoping for more like 12 years or longer. Maintenance has been rather more, total is about $300 for 4 years. Again, plus electric power and a few QCs. Plus a tire, and a few dollars to repair rat damage.

SageBrush said:
Monthly costs are in the $350 - $400 a month range depending on model

BS

SageBrush said:
This is not even worth talking about.

Then don't.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
Few people in their right mind buy a new LEAF -- they lease due to concerns over the pack.

I've bought two Leafs, both SLs.
Goody for you.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115008_why-everyone-leases-electric-cars-rather-than-buying-and-maybe-you-should-too
Line to pay attention to: 80% of EVs in US are leased.
 
SageBrush said:
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
Few people in their right mind buy a new LEAF -- they lease due to concerns over the pack.

I've bought two Leafs, both SLs.
Goody for you.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115008_why-everyone-leases-electric-cars-rather-than-buying-and-maybe-you-should-too
Line to pay attention to: 80% of EVs in US are leased.

Sure, and notice the reasons why. Battery capacity loss "in some places". I'm not in those places. Not having enough income to use the full tax credit. I did have enough income to use the full tax credit. These reasons don't apply to me.
 
WetEV said:
[These reasons don't apply to me.
I never said they did. But they generally apply to Nissan and the LEAF.

You are just not important in the overall scheme of things because your case is atypical. Seattle is atypical for the US.
If Nissan wants to have a successful EV in the US they will pay attention to the 80% of their sales, not to you.
 
SageBrush said:
WetEV said:
[These reasons don't apply to me.
I never said they did. But they generally apply to Nissan and the LEAF.

You are just not important in the overall scheme of things because your case is atypical. Seattle is atypical for the US.
If Nissan wants to have a successful EV in the US they will pay attention to the 80% of their sales, not to you.

Leaf buyers are generally lower income than Tesla buyers, so are more likely to lease to take full advantage of the tax credit. That is not a Seattle only issue.
 
WetEV said:
Leaf buyers are generally lower income than Tesla buyers.

That is true only becuase Teslas have been more expensive. But like I've pointed out, the numbers from the experts (like on Edmunds.com) say a base Model 3 will cost around the same as a Leaf S. I'm not making up any numbers. Sure, everybody's personal experience is going to be different. If you got a deal on a Leaf that was well below MSRP and you don't pay hardly anything for maintenance because you change your own windshield wipers, well good for you. But I pulled up what the average consumer is paying and is forecasted to be paying on cars such as the Leaf s or the "$35,000" Tesla model 3, and the numbers from the experts say that the average consumer could be spending around the same on either car. The nay-sayers simply aren't looking at the facts or just place their bets that the experts who have come up with theses numbers are wrong. I mean even just looking at the prices anyone can tell that $35,000 is only $5,000 more than $30,000. Anyone can go online and see that 5 year old Teslas are only around half their original price where as I can't sell my 5 year old $40,000 MSRP Leaf for $5,000. So if the initial price is obviously not that far apart and the resell value is apparently going to favor the Tesla what else is going to make that Tesla so much more expensive than the Leaf as many are saying? Can the maintenance costs really be that different between the two (especially if you change your own windshield wipers at home anyway)? Insurance will likely be higher in the Tesla because it is more sporty. But is it really going to be that much more expensive for the average consumer?

"Sorry, but I can't afford the Tesla because my insurance would increase by 10%" :mrgreen:

The point is that the cost for owning a Tesla is going to be close to that of a Leaf for the average consumer and there's no doubt about it in the numbers by the experts. And when and if that happens the question is, what will Nissan do about it. :?: The title of this is "Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range." Tesla and Chevy have been going for range and performance. We all know that. Nissan has be going for affordability and has slightly increased range over the years. We all know that too. But what is Nissan going to do in face of companies like Tesla making their own EV's cheaper? Are we going to get a Leaf SL with a 220 mile range? Or will the Leaf S be under $25,000? Well, the title says Nissan will shift to affordability, so I guess they're saying prices will come down. But by how much? Yes, the coming year is going to be interesting.

"I can go over 200 miles in my EV!" :) :D
"Oh ya, but mine costs only half of what yours does!" :twisted: :roll:
"Or does it?" :shock: :lol:

Besides the pending Tesla issue, then there's the future loss of the federal tax credit. After the federal tax credit goes away in 2020, if a Leaf still costs about what it does today it will cost the average consumer some $42,600 in total costs to own and operate a Leaf S. (Yes! That's what it really would cost the average consumer who lives in an area where they can't get a tax credit!). Both a base Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are expected to cost around $32,100 to $32,600 for the same 5 years of ownership. That's a huge difference from the Leaf without the tax credit! Would the average consumer consider a Leaf over a similar ICEV at those prices? Would you call the Leaf affordable when it costs some $10,000 more than a similar ICEV? So what is Nissan going to do about that too?

"I'm so happy! I spent $10,000 more so that I can limit my driving to a 50 mile radius!" :mrgreen:
"Well, you always have the DC slow charge option." :mrgreen: :ugeek:

Forget Tesla. Forget what we paid for our Leafs during the Tax credit years. In the years to come, what is Nissan going to do to make their EV's more affordable? And at what expense? Like I've pointed out, simply making their batteries last in hot climates would do wonders to their value.
 
WetEV said:
Over $3k in maintenance? What have I been missing in maintenance costs? In 4 years, I've put maybe $300 into the Leaf: wiper blades, a new TCU and windshield wiper fluid. Tire rotation is free, air filter was inspected and is still OK. Brake fluid still is OK. What else is there?

That's what average consumers are spending. I never claimed you were an average consumer. Open up your owner's manual and confess, how many of those maintenance procedures have you had done at your local Nissan Dealer at the specified intervals? Don't expect me to believe your numbers over Edmunds.

WetEV said:
I've yet to lose a battery bar at 40k miles and 4 years. If I lose capacity at the rate I have for the first 4 years, I'll need a battery replacement about 2025 or so. Maybe later if I then use the Leaf for only in town driving. And by then, I expect that the Leaf will be very very obsolete. No high speed internet, not enough cup holders, not self driving, no builtin VR XBox and no in car espresso machine. Obsolete.

Me too! I hit about 44,000 miles when I dropped my first bar. I also live where it's quite cool all year long, cooler than where the Leaf used to be. But that doesn't do anything for those Leaf owners in Phoenix.

WetEV said:
Too simplistic. Yes, Tesla has done better. However, not every BEV with a TMS does better for battery life than the Leaf, even in hot places.


What I want, and what Nissan seems to be trying to produce, is a low cost simple battery with good enough life. Safer than gasoline and T esla type batteries.
What you want is perfectly fine. Sounds like something I'd want too. But that doesn't mean that Leaf's are getting more affordable. the title of this thread is "Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range." How will they do that? Longevity increases affordability. That might sound simplistic but it's the truth. And for most people the Leaf doesn't have enough of either. Many Leaf batteries in Phoenix and other hot places are reaching 70% SOC in less than 2.5 years! Yet it does very well in places like Seattle and the Rocky Mountains. The Leaf battery doesn't heat up as bad as other battery technologies. How hard would it be to insulate the Leaf's battery and put a heat pump on it that keeps it down to 65°F and no more while the car is running or charging? Even if such a system cost some $2,000 but extended the life of the battery to 10 years in places like Phoenix then that would be a cost savings of $16,000 every 10 years for them! For you and me it probably wouldn't do anything except increase the value of your car if you decide to sell it.
 
Total cost of ownership is moot to someone who can't afford to buy one in the first place. So while the Tesla Model 3 base price is "technically" $35k, that is not the version currently being delivered to people on the waiting list. The ones that cost $50-55k are. I know a couple of people who got themselves on a waiting list on Day 1, but because they are holding out for that base model car, they're being quoted time frames of "mid to late 2018." And if you put yourself on the list today, and want a base model car, you're looking at "12 to 18 months" according to Tesla's own website as of a month or so ago when I checked. And we all know how Elon tends to be optimistic with delivery schedules.

People with lesser incomes will be drawn to Leafs or Bolts or other EV's because acquisition is a more realistic proposition for them, often through lease deals that include the $7500 Federal tax credit factored in. That's something you're not going to get with a Tesla despite an allegedly lower TCO, and will become more expensive once Tesla reaches that 200k mark.
 
RonDawg said:
Total cost of ownership is moot to someone who can't afford to buy one in the first place. So while the Tesla Model 3 base price is "technically" $35k, that is not the version currently being delivered to people on the waiting list. The ones that cost $50-55k are. I know a couple of people who got themselves on a waiting list on Day 1, but because they are holding out for that base model car, they're being quoted time frames of "mid to late 2018." And if you put yourself on the list today, and want a base model car, you're looking at "12 to 18 months" according to Tesla's own website as of a month or so ago when I checked. And we all know how Elon tends to be optimistic with delivery schedules.

People with lesser incomes will be drawn to Leafs or Bolts or other EV's because acquisition is a more realistic proposition for them, often through lease deals that include the $7500 Federal tax credit factored in. That's something you're not going to get with a Tesla despite an allegedly lower TCO, and will become more expensive once Tesla reaches that 200k mark.
Ok, but you are talking about mid to late 2018, possibly within a few months from now. Both Nissan and Tesla will likely hit their 200k mark this year. Both will no longer get federal tax credits by 2020. But this thread isn't about this year or next year. The title is "Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range." That indicates what a change in the future. Do we have $35,000 Teslas yet? No! Has the new "Nissan-shifting-EV-focus-to-affordability-instead-of-range" Leaf come out yet? Apparently that is to come out in the future as well. Is a Leaf a better deal today, right now? Of course it is! But why does it have to stay that way? Is time frozen in place or something?
 
Both Nissan and Tesla will likely hit their 200k mark this year.

As I've noted, to surprisingly little reaction, Nissan has already stopped passing on the tax credit when you lease an SV or SL. Only the S still gets you a full $7500 down from NMAC.
 
IssacZachary said:
Ok, but you are talking about mid to late 2018, possibly within a few months from now. Both Nissan and Tesla will likely hit their 200k mark this year.

Tesla yes, Nissan no. The 200k figure is for EVs delivered to US consumers, not worldwide (currently past the 300k mark).

According to this website, if you total the numbers through 2017, less than 115k Leafs have made it into US consumer hands: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/nissan/nissan-leaf/ There is no way Nissan can make that up in the next 3 years at the rate they're going. And I'm seeing even fewer 2018's here in EV-dense LA than Model 3's, of which I've only seen a half-dozen.
 
RonDawg said:
IssacZachary said:
Ok, but you are talking about mid to late 2018, possibly within a few months from now. Both Nissan and Tesla will likely hit their 200k mark this year.

Tesla yes, Nissan no. The 200k figure is for EVs delivered to US consumers, not worldwide (currently past the 300k mark).

According to this website, if you total the numbers through 2017, less than 115k Leafs have made it into US consumer hands: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/nissan/nissan-leaf/ There is no way Nissan can make that up in the next 3 years at the rate they're going. And I'm seeing even fewer 2018's here in EV-dense LA than Model 3's, of which I've only seen a half-dozen.
You are partly right. Nissan is only about 9 months behind Tesla:

search


From https://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev-credit-expiry-date-by-automaker-estimates/
 
IssacZachary said:
How hard would it be to insulate the Leaf's battery and put a heat pump on it that keeps it down to 65°F and no more while the car is running or charging?

Harder than you seem to think. For less gain than you seem to think.

Minor point, 65F is just a bad idea, just too cool. Heat flow below the dew point is much larger than heat flow above the dew point due to condensation everywhere, including where you don't want it. Dew points can locally be as much as 30C/86F in the southern USA. So about 30C or perhaps 35C set point might be about the minimum.

Think about what happens when driving when the air temperature is below the set point. The passively cooled battery in the cool climate will be close to air temperature. The actively cooled battery will be warming up due to insulation, until it reaches the set point, then the active cooling will keep the temperature from rising more. If the set point is well above the air temperature, the battery will average warmer with active cooling and insulation than with passive cooling. A warmer battery in cool places with active cooling, and thus less battery life in cool places with active cooling. Or the cooling system could have another radiator, more pumps and check valves to switch between active cooling and passive cooling with an external radiator.

Why should I pay more for a system that increases energy use, reduces range, reduces battery life locally (but yes, not in Phoenix) and reduces reliability? Why would I or anyone else pay more for a used car that uses more energy, has less range, less remaining battery life, and is less reliable?

Sure, if I wanted to drive across the USA with minimum time charging, if I lived in a hot place, I would likely want active cooling. I don't. So I'd like to pick the tool for the job, not the tool for Phoenix.

With a realistic set point, battery life with active cooling in the hot places isn't going to be as good as battery life with passive cooling in cool places. So I doubt the 10 year battery life everywhere in the USA... Unless I'm getting more like 20 year battery life out of a passively cooled battery.

The wild card on this is changing battery chemistry. Newer chemistries might be more heat resistant... or might require active cooling for safety, like Tesla's current batteries.
 
Back
Top