GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

[IssacZachary]

If a 30 kWh pack reaches 70% (21 kWh) after 3 years, then a 42 kWh pack reaches the same 21 kWh in about 3*42/30 = 4.2 years all else being equal.

Though perhaps with Nissan engineering at the helm the 42 kWh pack degrades faster.

I meant from 42kWh to 30kWh (70%) in twelve years would be nice, not 42kWh to 21kWh (50%). But you are right, with the 30kWh battery it looks like they started going in the wrong direction. I guess we can only wait and see if that was just the 30kWh battery or if the 40kWh battery follows suit.

 

[SageBrush]

If a 30 kWh pack reaches 70% (21 kWh) after 3 years, then a 42 kWh pack reaches the same 21 kWh in about 3*42/30 = 4.2 years all else being equal.

Though perhaps with Nissan engineering at the helm the 42 kWh pack degrades faster.

I meant from 42kWh to 30kWh (70%) in twelve years would be nice, not 42kWh to 21kWh (50%). But you are right, with the 30kWh battery it looks like they started going in the wrong direction. I guess we can only wait and see if that was just the 30kWh battery or if the 40kWh battery follows suit.

I can think of many nice things Nissan could do, starting from their customer relations.
But your battery dreams are expensive and unrealistic.

 

[IssacZachary]

I can think of many nice things Nissan could do, starting from their customer relations.
But your battery dreams are expensive and unrealistic.

Customer relations? The same goes with the local Chevy dealer.

Anyhow, yes I know I'm throwing a once-upon-a-time wish that will never happen. That's kind of the whole point. I'm just saying that if Nissan is going for cheap, then it's not really cheap unless the operating costs follow suit. Like they say in Mexico, "lo barato sale caro" (cheapness turns out expensive).

Expensive and unrealistic... Calling a new Leaf at this point "affordable" is unrealistic. A car that needs a $6,000 part every 3 years and that has a terrible resell value because of that fact is also expensive.

If Nissan could sell cars that either have lasting batteries or much cheaper batteries or the price of the car were about half of what it is now, then, like I've been saying, it would be an "affordable" car. (But that's a big if in case you didn't notice.) But so far, the total cost to own a Leaf is head to head with a Tesla Model 3. And that's including everything, financing, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, the works! Well, at least for the first 5 years. After that you'd be saving money with the Tesla.

I'm glad I have a 2013 Leaf and live in a climate that's about that of Juneau Alaska. I might just be able to get 10 years or more out of this battery before dropping that 8th bar. We'll see.

 

[Joe6pack]

I can think of many nice things Nissan could do, starting from their customer relations.
But your battery dreams are expensive and unrealistic.

Customer relations? The same goes with the local Chevy dealer.

Anyhow, yes I know I'm throwing a once-upon-a-time wish that will never happen. That's kind of the whole point. I'm just saying that if Nissan is going for cheap, then it's not really cheap unless the operating costs follow suit. Like they say in Mexico, "lo barato sale caro" (cheapness turns out expensive).

Expensive and unrealistic... Calling a new Leaf at this point "affordable" is unrealistic. A car that needs a $6,000 part every 3 years and that has a terrible resell value because of that fact is also expensive.

If Nissan could sell cars that either have lasting batteries or much cheaper batteries or the price of the car were about half of what it is now, then, like I've been saying, it would be an "affordable" car. (But that's a big if in case you didn't notice.) But so far, the total cost to own a Leaf is head to head with a Tesla Model 3. And that's including everything, financing, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, the works! Well, at least for the first 5 years. After that you'd be saving money with the Tesla.

I'm glad I have a 2013 Leaf and live in a climate that's about that of Juneau Alaska. I might just be able to get 10 years or more out of this battery before dropping that 8th bar. We'll see.

^^^All this = Nonsense

 

[IssacZachary]

^^^All this = Nonsense

What? You don't believe me that Leafs are too expensive brand new? According to Edmunds a new 2018 Leaf will run you out of $40,000 to $46,000 by the time you pay it off in 5 years. (Even factoring in the $7,500 federal tax credit. Without that you're looking at a car that runs you well over $50,000 for the first 5 years!) Losing $9,000 a year on a vehicle is downright expensive if you ask me! Given the resell value, a Tesla model 3 may be cheaper in the long run, or at least pretty close. Seriously! Then add to that any battery problems in the future after the warranty expires.

https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2018/st-401734187/cost-to-own/

This thread is about Nissan making EV's affordable. While still one of the most affordable EV's out there the Leaf is far from affordable. If Nissan lowering prices or making expensive parts last longer (kind of like their CVT's) is "nonsense" then I guess there is no shift of focus to affordability, now is there.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

A car that needs a $6,000 part every 3 years

This is FUD. The car doesn't need a new battery every 3 years. If it does, that means it doesn't actually fit your needs - buy a different car. A brand-new Leaf comes with an 8-year warranty. So you shouldn't have to pay for that battery for at least 8 years. In reality, the vast majority of owners will never replace the battery within the life of the car.

 

[Joe6pack]

^^^All this = Nonsense

What? You don't believe me that Leafs are too expensive brand new? According to Edmunds a new 2018 Leaf will run you out of $40,000 to $46,000 by the time you pay it off in 5 years. (Even factoring in the $7,500 federal tax credit. Without that you're looking at a car that runs you well over $50,000 for the first 5 years!) Losing $9,000 a year on a vehicle is downright expensive if you ask me! Given the resell value, a Tesla model 3 may be cheaper in the long run, or at least pretty close. Seriously! Then add to that any battery problems in the future after the warranty expires.

https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2018/st-401734187/cost-to-own/

This thread is about Nissan making EV's affordable. While still one of the most affordable EV's out there the Leaf is far from affordable. If Nissan lowering prices or making expensive parts last longer (kind of like their CVT's) is "nonsense" then I guess there is no shift of focus to affordability, now is there.

Yup. You picked the most expensive LEAF. According to your same link, the TCO of a LEAF S over 5 years is $36,000. That's where the cheapest Model 3 starts. Thus saying the total cost to own a LEAF is on par with a Model 3 is nonsense.

 

[finman100]

don't forget u may need a second car to go along with that Leaf. that adds to cost. That's okay for 2-car households, but for those wanting to replace gas...the Leaf may find fewer customers than Tesla, due to the "challenge" of taking longer trips that the current Leaf enjoys. Let's see how the long range, TMS battery Leaf does with the proposed high-speed charging infrastructure coming in a year or 2.

I'd love to see that US coast to coast EV trip in anything other than a Tesla...soon?

 

[SageBrush]

Yup. You picked the most expensive LEAF. According to your same link, the TCO of a LEAF S over 5 years is $36,000. That's where the cheapest Model 3 starts. Thus saying the total cost to own a LEAF is on par with a Model 3 is nonsense.

That is where the Model 3 starts **to buy**

IZ is correct in his comments -- the LEAF is expensive because the battery is crap.

 

[Joe6pack]

Yup. You picked the most expensive LEAF. According to your same link, the TCO of a LEAF S over 5 years is $36,000. That's where the cheapest Model 3 starts. Thus saying the total cost to own a LEAF is on par with a Model 3 is nonsense.

That is where the Model 3 starts **to buy**

IZ is correct in his comments -- the LEAF is expensive because the battery is crap.

Lol. Completely unqualified statement.

You Tesla fanbois are losing it if you are now trying to make the argument that a LEAF costs more than a Tesla.

 

[SageBrush]

Yup. You picked the most expensive LEAF. According to your same link, the TCO of a LEAF S over 5 years is $36,000. That's where the cheapest Model 3 starts. Thus saying the total cost to own a LEAF is on par with a Model 3 is nonsense.

That is where the Model 3 starts **to buy**

IZ is correct in his comments -- the LEAF is expensive because the battery is crap.

Lol. Completely unqualified statement.

You Tesla fanbois are losing it if you are now trying to make the argument that a LEAF costs more than a Tesla.

It clearly is more expensive than a base Model 3, you just have to include either the depreciation or the battery replacement costs. That is, look at the TCO
The great value of a used LEAF is the flip side of the coin.

 

[IssacZachary]

Lol. Completely unqualified statement.

You Tesla fanbois are losing it if you are now trying to make the argument that a LEAF costs more than a Tesla.

I'm not a Tesla Fan Boy nor am I promoting neither Tesla nor Nissan. For what it's worth I really like the Leaf. The only reason I'm even considering selling it is that I now have to drive 140 miles minimum per day. And I've actually been doing that in my 24kWh 11 bar Leaf! And no, I won't be replacing it with a Tesla unless the stars align and that Tesla that's on the moon somehow is beamed down to my back yard with title and all. (Beam me down the Tesla Scotty!)

But regardless of your and my particular likes, dislikes and circumstances, forecasts are forecasts. Of course they don't apply to every case, nor are they immune to changes as reality unfolds, but they are what they are. And they are a good standard to go by if you want to guess at what you'd be spending on your next vehicle. You have to include everything into the equation. Sure, you can pick up an old car out of a field for $50. But if it costs you $50,000 to restore it you're not saving money are you.

Here's what the current projected figures are with both a base Leaf and a base Model 3:
_______________________________________
5 Year total cost to own for 5 year ownership:
2018 Tesla M3 / 2018 Nissan Leaf S
Initial cost: $35,000 / $29,990
Electricity: $3,767 / $4,238
Maintenance: $4,525 / $3,244
Sum paid in 5 years: $42,292 / $37,472

Resale value: 43% $15,048 / 30% $8,997
Total cost: $28,244 / $28,475

Including federal tax credit of $7,500:
Total cost: $20,744 / $20,975_______

Ok. So I didn't include everything like insurance or financing or compare anything other than the base models. And the electric rates are for those in California, so for others that aspect of it would be much cheaper. But the fact that the base model Leaf and M3 are very close for 5 year ownership surprised even me! If you are going to buy a base model and trade it in every 5 years, which is common, you are going to be spending around the same on either a base Tesla or a base Leaf. There's really no way around it. Sure, if you get free electricity the Leaf becomes $300 cheaper than the Tesla. So does that make the Leaf an affordable car? Well obviously if a base Leaf total costs after 5 years are within $500 of that of a base Tesla then it can't be that "affordable".

But here's the dilema. If you trade in a Leaf every 5 years or less it is not going to be very economical because of the terrible resell value. If you keep it for many more years you end up with either a degraded battery out of warranty or you'll end up having to pay for a battery that now costs more than what your vehicle is worth. Now that may work for some people. But if your battery is practically needing a replacement right as your warranty expires at 100,000 miles after driving 15,000 miles per year for 6.5 years then you're kind of up a creek without a paddle. Really it wouldn't be all that bad if you could purchase another $6,000 battery and use it for the next 100,000 miles. That may be the case for some. But what if your battery is failing as bad as some of the 30kWh owners are experiencing? Well then at that point you're going to have to chuck the car for free and start from scratch or pay a premium price on new batteries every so often.

Now I certainly hope the 30kWh battery degradation problems are only a fluke and that Nissan has gotten their act together with the 40kWh battery. Like I say, there are three areas that can make the Leaf more affordable, and one of them is improving the longevity of the battery. The longer the battery lasts the better the resell value and the better the longevity of the car. The better the resell value, or the longer you own it, the less it costs to own and operate the vehicle over time. To me I think with the proper TMS Nissan could nail this and make a car with a battery that lasts even in hot climates. But maybe Nissan doesn't want to do that. But it seems like Tesla has gotten this down, which is going to give their cars better longevity and a better resell value.

The same would be true if battery replacements were much cheaper in spite of batteries that don't last very well. At the end of 8 years or 100,000 miles, if the price to replace the battery is more than the car's value, it's not going to happen. Which in turn makes the car worth even less. Hey! If it cost the same to change a traction battery as to change the oil on an ICEV then there'd be no problem in changing the battery every 3 months if you had to. (Again this is just hypothetical and hyperbolical, not me saying this will or should happen.)

The third thing that Nissan could do is lower the initial costs substantially. (Again, I'm not saying this will happen.)

Any one of those three would make the Leaf affordable. Just costing a bit less up front and being a bit cheaper to maintain doesn't make it affordable. You have to add that resell value into the equation. And if you don't plan to ever sell it, the cost to keep it running is just as important to figure out. If you don't have an educated guess of what those figures would be then you are a blind buyer.

 

[SageBrush]

You nailed it, IZ
By the way, what odds would you like to bet that Joe has an ICE too, to cover up the LEAF's deficiencies and of course he forgets to include the extra car expenses.

 

[IssacZachary]

You nailed it, IZ
By the way, what odds would you like to bet that Joe has an ICE too, to cover up the LEAF's deficiencies and of course he forgets to include the extra car expenses.

Thanks!
But that's what I don't get. He apparently lives in Georgia and drives a 2012 Leaf. I guess he got a Lizard Battery replacement once and doesn't have any need to drive the car very far. If that's the case he's a perfect Leaf owner. Say he got a free battery replacement last year with a Lizard Battery. According to the Electric Vehicle Wiki his battery should last another 5.4 years from that point, or at least until 2021, ten years after purchasing his Leaf, by the time it finally reaches 70% capacity again. Not bad if it turns out that way for him. Now if he had purchased a 30kWh Leaf and lived in Phoenix he might be telling a different story. Or maybe he has a secret he's keeping from us about how he keeps his Leaf going?

This is all just my speculation again.

 

[IssacZachary]

A car that needs a $6,000 part every 3 years

This is FUD. The car doesn't need a new battery every 3 years. If it does, that means it doesn't actually fit your needs - buy a different car. A brand-new Leaf comes with an 8-year warranty. So you shouldn't have to pay for that battery for at least 8 years. In reality, the vast majority of owners will never replace the battery within the life of the car.

There are cars that do need a new traction battery every three years. At the same time there are those that are expected to need a new battery every 10 years or more. It has everything to do with climate and nothing to do with needs. Maybe the saying should be "if it doesn't fit your climate - buy a different car."
http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss

Whether a brand new Leaf comes with an 8-warranty or not will have little effect on the resell value. It's the reputation of the battery and the car that affect the resell value. And the resell value is an important part of the cost of the whole car. And even if you decide not to sell the car, eventually the warranty will expire and you will be left to deal with any future battery degredation. This all adds up the cost and practicality of owning the car.

I certainly hope the vast majority of owners will never need to replace their batteries within the life of their cars. But what do you mean by "life of the car." Many cars are lasting over 200,000 miles and for several decades. My own ICEV has over 500,000 miles on it and is more than 30 years old. Ideally the engine and transmission in an ICEV should last as long as the frame, chasis, body and interior last. The same should be true of a component as expensive as a traction battery. I mean, if you bought an ICE car knowing the transmission or engine wouldn't last more than 8 years would you still buy it?

 

[Joe6pack]

I'll tell you what. The day Tesla delivers a $35,000 Model 3 you might be close to being correct (a hell of a lot closer than you are today). Until then, you are comparing a real car to a spec sheet. I for one don't expect it to happen. But hey, you hold onto that dream. And Tesla will hold onto your deposit. Ha ha.

P.S. No one pays msrp for a LEAF.

 

[IssacZachary]

IP.S. No one pays msrp for a LEAF.

And no one pays MSRP on a Tesla either. If I went today and got either a new Tesla, Bolt, Leaf or other EV I could get up to $13,500 off the price in tax credits alone.

I'll tell you what. The day Tesla delivers a $35,000 Model 3 you might be close to being correct (a hell of a lot closer than you are today). Until then, you are comparing a real car to a spec sheet. I for one don't expect it to happen. But hey, you hold onto that dream. And Tesla will hold onto your deposit. Ha ha.

I don't have a deposit with Tesla. And you are right, a lot of this is speculation. But the numbers for other Teslas and the previous year Leafs are already there. It's not just a guess, it's an educated and researched guess. Will it come this year or next? I don't know. I'm not here to promote Tesla or any other car company. But the thread is about affordability, and you have to compare the Leaf to something. Maybe a Dodge Ram would have been closer in comparison. I'm just kidding.

If you want to talk reality I bought my 2013 Leaf SL used last year for a bit under $10,000. I've been trying to sell it since the beginning of this year but can't get half of what I paid for it. The car is in good condition and has all the bell and whistles. Everything works except the CarWiings. No dents, dings, nothing. It has a bit over 50,000 miles now. I had an unexpected change of circumstances and now need to drive 140 miles per day. A bit more than what a 24kWh Leaf is cut out for. Did I pay way too much for it? Or do these cars really depreciate that poorly? If I hadn't paid off the loan early I'd owe way more than what the car is worth.

Seeing how I can't get even $5,000 for it, what should I do? Keep it as a lawn ornament or sell it for $4,000?

Anyway you look at it the car has not been a money saver for me. I guess it was my mistake to not know what the future would bring. I love the car, don't get me wrong. And if I could keep it and make it work for me for years to come it would be a money saver and I would be delighted. But it's not. The earlier you sell a Leaf the less affordable it is. The longer you keep it and use it the more money it will save you. But you have to be able to use it to make it save you money.

 

[SageBrush]

P.S. No one pays msrp for a LEAF.

Tell that to the people who have leased the 2018 LEAF

 

[Joe6pack]

I am sorry your circumstances changed, but anytime you buy a depreciating asset, finance it and hold it for a short period of time, you are going to lose. These early EVs are like smart phones - they still work, but they are functionally obsolete. This trend is only going to accelerate as more new EVs hit the market.

None of this changes the fact fact that the LEAF is the best value on the EV market today. Until someone comes along with a better car for the same or less money, it will continue to be the affordable EV King. It's good to be the King.

 

[SageBrush]

I am sorry your circumstances changed, but anytime you buy a depreciating asset, finance it and hold it for a short period of time, you are going to lose.

Your capacity for self-deception is a wonder to behold.
The 50% market value drop IZ has seen in one year is on a 5 year old car.