Detroit 3 are in serious trouble...

[TomT]

No, they just didn't consider it a smart use of their marketing dollars. It is the same reason that some of them (and a number of Asian manufacturers as well) were missing from the U.S. auto show circuit until recently...

Regarding the OP, it is interesting to note that the "big" 3 bailed out of the Tokyo Motor Show. It would seem they had nothing socially responsible to show (again) so this was probably a smart move.

 

[cwerdna]

SUVs like Tahoes, Yukons, Escalades, Expeditions, Suburbans and extended length the Escalade ESV, Yukon XL, etc. being driven around solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers. It doesn't seem like those folks would be an interested in an EV either (see my earlier sales stats too) as they could seem to care less about fuel economy or oil consumption.

I've truly never been able to comprehend this. While it is true that many of those wealthy people that drive these tanks don't seem to bat an eye at the fuel cost, many of them do. I've seen countless examples of where gasoline drops down very low and people start buying these huge vehicles. Then they start acting like a crybaby when gas climbs back up again. It is hard to imagine that after all of these years people don't realize that gasoline prices rise and fall regularly.

Yep. And when gas prices climb, they seem to flee by dumping their SUVs and buying more efficient vehicles, as if in a panic. One has to wonder whether these folks can actually afford these vehicles if a $1-2/gal difference in gas prices is what breaks the camel's back. I've observed some people who don't look that well off and some of those folks in not very good areas driving monstrosity class SUVs. It puzzles me too.

 

[cwerdna]

"To do an unfair comparison..."

Do a fair comparison. In fact, there are many drivers, like myself, who do so little “city” driving, that the the most efficient hybrid, a Prius, would probably provide less than 20% fuel use reduction over a 42 mpg rated Cruze Eco. But I’ll admit I probably should have used 20%-30%, which would likely cover a higher percentage of small car drivers, with a more fair representation of the average.

Not everyone lives and works right next to a highway. Even those that do who end up having to travel during rush hour in many major metro areas end up on terrible stop and go traffic that's far closer to the city cycle than anything resembling highway. I can speak to that from having lived in the SF Bay Area, Seattle area and Los Angeles area.

It seems like you've fallen prey to GM's marketing (and that of others for their econoboxes). See http://detnews.com/article/20111020/OPINION03/110200355/40-mpg-claims-grab-headlines--miss-mark" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. That "42 mpg" rated Cruze Eco is on the EPA highway cycle w/a manual transmission. The '11 Cruze Eco 6MT is EPA rated at 33 mpg combined. Really want an manual when hardly anyone buys one in the US? Have fun driving in stop and go, city traffic or on hills. The '11 automatic Cruze Eco is EPA rated at 30 mpg combined.

To top it off, the Cruze w/its two engines had the poorest reliability of small cars in the December '11 issue of Consumer Reports. Both engine configs were given "much worse than average" marks and thus not recommended. The 1.4T (most trims) getting "Based on the latest survey, we expect reliability of new models will be 50% below average" and the 1.8 (lowest trim, I believe) got "Based on the latest survey, we expect reliability of new models will be 62% below average".

Prius got very high marks with received "much better than average" and "Based on the latest survey, we expect reliability of new models will be 54% above average."

"As for your environmental claims, please cite your sources."

You mean my statement that environmental benefits are "arguable" ?

I'd think it would be up to you to prove the assertion that the environmental benefits of driving a hybrid over the life of the vehicle are indisputable. I think the environmental benefits of BEV operation over ICEVs are arguable also, BTW, just a much weaker argument than there is for hybrids.

The limited hybrid sales, many years after their introduction, is related to the fact that the cost benefits to the buyer of reducing gas use by about 20-25%, verses the higher initial purchase price, never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits for most car buyers, including myself.

Let's back up, I interpreted the environmental part of your statement as being an assertion that hybrids do not provide environmental benefits vs. ICEVs. Is my interpretation correct? If so, I will respond to that.

As for TCO, CR, at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/news/2008/10/affordable-hybrids/hybrid-owner-costs/affordable-hybrids-hybrid-owner-costs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you'll need to have a CR online subscription to see it), they peg the 5 year total ownership cost of Prius II as being $750 lower than that of a Corolla LE. Long ago CR made a mistake in claiming there was no savings but fixed it (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11637968/ns/us_news-environment/t/consumer-reports-fixes-error-hybrid-costs/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

As for Intellichoice, it looks like they peg the '11 Corolla LE as having $548 lower TCO than an '11 Prius II (http://www.intellichoice.com/1-12-2011-45084-0/2011-toyota-corolla-le-4dr-sedan.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; vs. http://www.intellichoice.com/1-12-2011-45113-0/2011-toyota-prius-two-4dr-hatchback.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. The Prius used to be pegged as having a lower TCO and I've posted about it before at places like http://my350z.com/forum/5886407-post131.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Again, this isn't a particularly fair comparison as the Corolla is a compact while the Prius is a midsized and the Prius has a some features standard that are unavailable on a Corolla (e.g. smart key system, touch tracer controls, no drive belts) and a whole ton of stuff unavailable as an option (e.g. LKA, LDW, DRCC, IPA, etc.)

If you compare to a '11 Camry LE auto (http://www.intellichoice.com/1-12-2011-44023-0/2011-toyota-camry-le-4dr-sedan-automatic.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false, the Prius comes out ahead. Prius is sized between a Corolla and a Camry while both the Camry and Prius are classified as midsized cars by the EPA.

 

[cwerdna]

It's interesting that OP hasn't responded.

To provide more supporting data, here's some stuff I stumbled across today. Compare http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/11/october-advanced-drive-sales-still-slow.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; to the YTD numbers at http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/10/hybrids-dont-share-september-sales-spurt.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has the previous month's figures.

YTD, GM has sold ~1.2 million "light trucks" in the US. Ford did ~1.1 million and Chrysler did ~833K. See above for their car figures. How many Leafs were sold in the US YTD? 8048

Per http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/faq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

How many Model S units will Tesla produce each year?

Tesla plans to produce 20,000 Model S units annually. In 2012, Tesla expects to produce around 5,000 to 7,000 vehicles as the Tesla Factory reaches its planned production capacity.

 

[Caracalover]

I don't think the OP needs to respond, he said what he knows is true.

I agree. The mobile phone was once too expensive, too niche a market, and too limited in range to be useful worldwide. A lot of people discounted that as a never going to happen industry. Now, many people have given up the land line for the mobile. Many in areas never serviced with any telephone service before. Is Pacific Bell as big as any mobile provider now? Can solar power do that for EV's? Gas has to be transported, whereas electricity can be made on site. Huge benefit in many areas around the globe.

Electric vehicles are coming, and market share is a big factor as to who will dominate. Knowledge is another unknown that exists, and the amount of data Nissan is compiling should set them up to know the limits of what they can and can't do. Pity GM didn't keep the EV1 on the road, but they may have insights we know nothing about yet. If they do, they should wow the market soon. I don't see it in the Volt, although I respect that vehicle.

Tesla has already had a few years of real world experience, and they are ahead of the curve. They don't need to attend car shows, they need to make cars. They are sold out of the S class for at least the first year of production, and once they are on the road they will likely sell out the second year before the first year deliveries are finished. If demand wains, then advertise. Right now that is not an issue. BTW the first year production is going to be less vehicles than the number of Leaf's already sold I believe. They don't have the resources that the big three have - yet.

Reviews on the Leaf are a factor, as with any car that is less than a year old. With that milestone nearing, there has been a lot of what the average person looks for in a car - reliability, safety, convience, agility, and cost to operate. Is it perfect in the first year? Was the camry? Enough positives will steer more people to the EV world, whether or not they go with Nissan will be how Nissan responds to issues with the car, which so far is pretty darn good if you ask me. I have 9000 miles and the only dealer visit was a software issue, solved in a short pleasant visit. That was not true when I bought a new mustang (Ignition recall) many years ago, nor for my Silverado (Instrument panel, fixed poorly, had to hassle with them to get the recall) bought more recently. I don't buy a new car to have to take it to the dealer, and was/am very unhappy with those vehicles due to that, hence one of the reasons not to buy those products again. Had the Leaf been filled with these kind of issues, it would likely die. Doesn't seem to be the case though, so I think Nissan is leading on this in a big way, since they do have the resources Tesla doesn't.

For many people reliable is what they want, and an EV seems to give that better than ever now.

It's interesting that OP hasn't responded.

To provide more supporting data, here's some stuff I stumbled across today. Compare http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/11/october-advanced-drive-sales-still-slow.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; to the YTD numbers at http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/10/hybrids-dont-share-september-sales-spurt.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has the previous month's figures.

YTD, GM has sold ~1.2 million "light trucks" in the US. Ford did ~1.1 million and Chrysler did ~833K. See above for their car figures. How many Leafs were sold in the US YTD? 8048

Per http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/faq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

How many Model S units will Tesla produce each year?

Tesla plans to produce 20,000 Model S units annually. In 2012, Tesla expects to produce around 5,000 to 7,000 vehicles as the Tesla Factory reaches its planned production capacity.

 

[cwerdna]

As for Pacific Bell (a former baby Bell), thru a weird set of name changes, mergers and so on. Pacific Bell is now part of AT&T which has an AT&T Mobility (wireless) subsidiary.

While I rule out cars w/poor reliability and am wary of being those w/unknown reliability, plenty of people don't buy cars based on reliability ratings. They either don't look or dismiss them. Look at how many vehicles GM sells at http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; despite having plenty of vehicles w/poor reliability, to this day. Over 200K Cruzes were sold YTD per http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Yet, CR only very recently came out w/reliability results. It was the worst in reliability of small cars w/far below average reliability. Those folks bought a 1st year car w/unknown reliability from an automaker w/a known spotty reliability record and MANY models w/below average reliability.

Here's some more food for thought: http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/11/survey-car-owners-want-better-fuel-economy-support-increased-standards.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. These type of surveys happen all the time and most of the results aren't too surprising...

# A majority (56 percent) say they will consider an electric or hybrid for their next car, but only 16 percent are thinking about a diesel.
# Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) would consider buying some type of hybrid or electric car if they become more widely available over the next 15 years.

Ha, about consider... I've seen these types of results before. The actions hardly (in terms of hybrid and EV share) correlate w/the "consider".

Pure-electric cars, such as the Nissan Leaf, face a challenge in gaining widespread acceptance. Among respondents interested in a hybrid or electric vehicle, only 12 percent identified a pure-electric car as a possibility for their next purchase.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

omg!! thanks for the news!

considering two were just bailed out by the government, the other got a huge low interest loan and they have laid hundreds of thousands of workers. i have to ask...

how could you tell?

 

[Caracalover]

As for Pacific Bell (a former baby Bell), thru a weird set of name changes, mergers and so on. Pacific Bell is now part of AT&T which has an AT&T Mobility (wireless) subsidiary.

So they conformed to the market demand and morphed, just like the big three have to do, or die. They may still be around after a weird set of name changes, mergers, and so on.

Cars are a major investment, and so it will take time for people to realize the benefits of going electric, but they will realize it.

 

[EVDrive]

This thread reminds me that we are all early adopters.

Funny how we are talking about reduced range in the winter and how people in the Midwest will be shocked by this at the same time Nissans Mark Perry is saying the Leaf doesn't need more range because the hungry early adopters have bought. For sustained market domination and widespread acceptance, the Leaf needs more range so we can still make it on a 70 mile round trip when it is freezing out. If Nissan adds more range options to the Leaf then yes they could sell a few hundred k a year and sprint past the big three in sales and in revolutionary technology. I hope this happens and that Ford catches up. The other 2... Won't miss them... Hopefully their employees can get a job at Tesla or Nissan.

 

[scottf200]

This thread reminds me that we are all early adopters.

Funny how we are talking about reduced range in the winter and how people in the Midwest will be shocked by this at the same time Nissans Mark Perry is saying the Leaf doesn't need more range because the hungry early adopters have bought. For sustained market domination and widespread acceptance, the Leaf needs more range so we can still make it on a 70 mile round trip when it is freezing out. If Nissan adds more range options to the Leaf then yes they could sell a few hundred k a year and sprint past the big three in sales and in revolutionary technology. I hope this happens and that Ford catches up. The other 2... Won't miss them... Hopefully their employees can get a job at Tesla or Nissan.

EVDrive, you may be interested in this thread:
Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt Target Different Drivers
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6824" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

My prediction is Nissan will come out with a PHEV or EREV or EVER similar to the others (Toyota, Ford, Chevy, etc). The BEV adopter pool will dry up without the extended battery range you mentioned above. This (Nissan's new car) needs a poll.

 

[shay]

This thread reminds me that we are all early adopters.

Funny how we are talking about reduced range in the winter and how people in the Midwest will be shocked by this at the same time Nissans Mark Perry is saying the Leaf doesn't need more range because the hungry early adopters have bought. For sustained market domination and widespread acceptance, the Leaf needs more range so we can still make it on a 70 mile round trip when it is freezing out. If Nissan adds more range options to the Leaf then yes they could sell a few hundred k a year and sprint past the big three in sales and in revolutionary technology. I hope this happens and that Ford catches up. The other 2... Won't miss them... Hopefully their employees can get a job at Tesla or Nissan.

EVDrive, you may be interested in this thread:
Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt Target Different Drivers
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6824" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

My prediction is Nissan will come out with a PHEV or EREV or EVER similar to the others (Toyota, Ford, Chevy, etc). The BEV adopter pool will dry up without the extended battery range you mentioned above. This (Nissan's new car) needs a poll.

Ford has a Plug In Hybrid? Do you have a time frame on your prediction about Nissan?

 

[scottf200]

This thread reminds me that we are all early adopters.

Funny how we are talking about reduced range in the winter and how people in the Midwest will be shocked by this at the same time Nissans Mark Perry is saying the Leaf doesn't need more range because the hungry early adopters have bought. For sustained market domination and widespread acceptance, the Leaf needs more range so we can still make it on a 70 mile round trip when it is freezing out. If Nissan adds more range options to the Leaf then yes they could sell a few hundred k a year and sprint past the big three in sales and in revolutionary technology. I hope this happens and that Ford catches up. The other 2... Won't miss them... Hopefully their employees can get a job at Tesla or Nissan.

EVDrive, you may be interested in this thread:
Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt Target Different Drivers
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6824" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

My prediction is Nissan will come out with a PHEV or EREV or EVER similar to the others (Toyota, Ford, Chevy, etc). The BEV adopter pool will dry up without the extended battery range you mentioned above. This (Nissan's new car) needs a poll.

Ford has a Plug In Hybrid? Do you have a time frame on your prediction about Nissan?

See this thread: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6840" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TomT]

Agreed. With the miserable experiences I had with GM and my wife had with Chrysler, neither one of them will ever put in another appearance at our houses.

Ford is a toss-up at this point, IMHO... They do have some serious catching up to do on many fronts however.

I hope this happens and that Ford catches up. The other 2... Won't miss them...

 

[DrRocket]

OP is back.

Yes, the big three have inertia going for them and a lot of idiot customers who aren't concerned about quality and continue to buy from them. The key here is direction. Nissan broke ground and has the lead, Tesla is very creative and appears to not compromise. The head start they have can go a long way.

The Detroit 3 have to make decisions by committee and when they get into the game, what will kill them will be their level of commitment and low quality. Their business model is one of obsolescence. Nissan and Tesla EV's should last a very long time, and they will have to make money on the sale and not on service. I don't think the Detroit 3 can switch. I had a lot of hope for Saturn, but that didn't pan out so well.

At a Chicago train station, a wise teacher once asked his students how far apart two trains were. They all said about 20 feet. He replied but that one is going to New York and the other to California. They are really 3000 miles apart.

I was conjecturing about the future based on what I have observed about current behaviors and the general direction the Detroit 3 are heading.

 

[adric22]

I was conjecturing about the future based on what I have observed about current behaviors and the general direction the Detroit 3 are heading.

I see it sort of like an Apple vs. Microsoft type of thing. Apple has always had the edge on innovation, every since the 1980's. Then Microsoft comes along and copies them when they think the idea will be profitable. In the end, Microsoft has always been a very profitable company while letting Apple take all of the risks. Right now Nissan and Tesla are taking the risk. the Big-3 are just watching. Sure, they have the Volt and the Focus EV but neither product is considered to be a serious attempt to reach mass market with a profitable product.

However, you can bet that if Nissan and Tesla are extremely successful, the big-3 will follow with something aimed to compete. But you have to measure success in their eyes. For example, the prius is generally considered to be a success but all hybrids on the road are considered to account for less than 2% of all car sales. So by the Big-3's standard, that is not a serious threat at this point. I bet EV's will have to hit the 5 million mark or better before the committees inside GM, Ford, and Chrysler will actually take it seriously.

Of course, while I'm sure we'll reach that level of penetration, it may be 5 years or 20 years. Mostly depends on the price of oil.

 

[Caracalover]

When leases run out and rental Leaf's hit the market place, people will buy used EV's. Many people will never buy a new car. The demand for these lower priced vehicles will likely be a factor in this. When you can get an EV for $10,000 (Not for ten years likely) acceptance will likely be widespread. That will help fuel demand for better new EV's. It is going to take time, and the ICE and oil companies are going to be downplaying and trying to kill them the whole time. Not going to happen this time.

 

[cwerdna]

Per http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nissan-north-america-sales-increase-77-for-record-december-136668408.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, Nissan sold 954 Leafs in the US in December 2011.

From skimming thru http://www.hybridcars.com/market-dashboard.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, it appears the peak of US Leaf sales were June 2011 of 1708 sales. Per http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nissan-north-america-reports-sales-up-114-in-june-124863844.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, June 2011 was a much lower sales month for Nissan than December 2011, to boot (70.9K cars vs. 100.9K cars).

It'll be a few more hours before we see complete auto sales figures for the US.

I still stand by what I said earlier. It'll be interesting to see what happens when the Leaf is available in all 50 states and when more PHEV and EV competitors become available/more readily available (e.g. FFE, PiP, Tesla Model S, i-Miev, etc.)

For those in CA, a big plus of buying the Leaf was the ability to get the still valid HOV stickers w/o having to go w/CNG vehicles or a Tesla Roadster... This will got more crowded as the '12 Volt qualifies for them, as should all the others I listed.

Hope the risks that Ghosn took don't turn out to be a total disaster w/an oversupply of production capacity (i.e. new plants in the US and UK).

Side note: http://www.plugincars.com/nissan-leaf-sales-trump-chevy-volt-2011-111308.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; reports Chevy sold 1529 Volts in December 2011.

 

[Train]

Last month, Ford sold more F-150's by noon of the first day of the month than Nissan sold Leafs for the entire month. Heck, they sold more F-150's in 6 days than all Leafs sold the entire year.

If this continues (which I think it will), Nissan is going to have to retool that Tennessee factory for something else because there's no way they're going to need to build 20,000 Leafs per month. Heck, they won't need to build more than 12,000 per year.

The reality is, EV's will remain a niche vehicle for years to come.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

We are set to get some 60 CHAdeMo chargers installed in the next couple of months in the Seattle Metro area. I predict this will radically change the forecast for EV's once people start using the Quick chargers and relaxing about cold whether range loss. Even in the worst whether with the Climate control blasting, EV's are many times more efficient and cost effective than any other vehicle type on the road today. With over 10,000 miles on our car for less than $300 in electricity, it's just a matter of time till the next wave surges forward. Until there is an EV F-150, we just won't be able to make a fair comparison with the gas version... it's going to take a while before there is a comparable EV for every gas type vehicle out there today.

Last month, Ford sold more F-150's by noon of the first day of the month than Nissan sold Leafs for the entire month. Heck, they sold more F-150's in 6 days than all Leafs sold the entire year.

If this continues (which I think it will), Nissan is going to have to retool that Tennessee factory for something else because there's no way they're going to need to build 20,000 Leafs per month. Heck, they won't need to build more than 12,000 per year.

The reality is, EV's will remain a niche vehicle for years to come.

 

[scottf200]

Last month, Ford sold more F-150's by noon of the first day of the month than Nissan sold Leafs for the entire month. Heck, they sold more F-150's in 6 days than all Leafs sold the entire year.

If this continues (which I think it will), Nissan is going to have to retool that Tennessee factory for something else because there's no way they're going to need to build 20,000 Leafs per month. Heck, they won't need to build more than 12,000 per year.

The reality is, EV's will remain a niche vehicle for years to come.

The above is why I think these guys have a chance. Like the video of using the builtin battery for welding, grinding, etc.

http://www.viamotors.com/videos/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;