desiv said:It's also possible they will introduce a few levels of new Leaf
I am also predicting that Nissan will offer more than one battery capacity, like Tesla. Small, to keep cost down, and large(r), for those who need more range.
desiv said:It's also possible they will introduce a few levels of new Leaf
tkdbrusco said:I agree that prices are likely near rock bottom and I don't see how they can go much lower, perhaps a bit in the short term, but by 2017/18 they come up a bit more.
Here's what's likely going to happen in a few years IMO.
- New BEVs hit the market with 200mi+ range (2017/2018) and priced roughly at $40K
- Nissan will be in a bad position with the used leaf market and will do one of two things to boost resale, either lower the price of replacement batteries, or increase the range of them. Either of these would boost resale tremendously.
Personally if I knew I could get the above in a replacement pack, I wouldn't sell my 2015. I'd drive it to 65% of capacity and put a new pack in.
Agreed. I bought my Sonata back in '09, right when people started shifting from "Hyundais are garbage" to "Huh. I guess Hyundais are getting better..." At the time, I paid $8500 (+tax/title/etc.) for a certified pre-owned '06. There's no way that deal is coming back. I see the same thing happening to BEVs now (more people are realizing that they can replace at least one of their cars with one).tkdbrusco said:I agree that prices are likely near rock bottom and I don't see how they can go much lower, perhaps a bit in the short term, but by 2017/18 they come up a bit more.
As desiv said, I don't know that Nissan really cares about the resale value of the LEAF. They've been dumping lease returns to auction, and I got mine from a dealer for $12,500 (their asking price), which means that the auction price was probably well below that. The issue is more that they're inundated with lease returns, and so I would argue that cheaper or increased range batteries will increase the number of sales and decrease the number of leases. The resale value is not why they would work on this.tkdbrusco said:Here's what's likely going to happen in a few years IMO.
- New BEVs hit the market with 200mi+ range (2017/2018) and priced roughly at $40K
- Nissan will be in a bad position with the used leaf market and will do one of two things to boost resale, either lower the price of replacement batteries, or increase the range of them. Either of these would boost resale tremendously.
Actually, this is why the resale values would go up -- Nissan would likely slow production of the LEAF if they can't sell new ones (i.e. the used ones are too enticing).tkdbrusco said:- State rebates start to run out (CA rebate will be gone in a year or so, as will other states as well soon after)
- Federal $7500 Credit starts going away, or decreasing on some models. Nissan will likely hit it first, followed by Tesla. This may also drive them to provide options for early adopters of LEAF. They won't want to lose us to another manufacturer due to a decreased credit. Maybe this relates to a better battery replacement option.
- In 2018 they also stop giving carpool stickers in CA
Just look at 2017 as an example. Let's say that there's a Leaf Gen2 available at $38,000 with 200mi of range. The state credit is gone by then and you only have the federal option. I'm guessing demand will be high for this car so you won't see much by way of dealer discounts. so with a federal credit, you're looking at $30,500 as a purchase price, plus tax and license, you're at about $34,000. If you can buy a 2015 Leaf Gen 1 for $12,000 instead, that's a killer deal! Even if you wind up having to pay $5500 for a new pack in a couple years. If the price of the pack drops to $4000 or stays the same and goes to 120mi+ of range, there's a lot of incentive here.
That's exactly my plan. Even if it doesn't offer much extra capacity, I'm guessing by the time mine gets to ~70% capacity (my best guess would be 2019 or so at this point), batteries will be cheaper or have more capacity. I doubt that the 1st gen LEAFs will have no recourse in terms of battery replacement, even ~3 years after the model line will be replaced. If I could get 120+ mile range in my current LEAF in 2019, I could probably deal with even 50% degradation before I would feel the need for another battery (or car), and that could easily take the car to 2030 or beyond. (Of course, I'd probably want something else well before that.)tkdbrusco said:Personally if I knew I could get the above in a replacement pack, I wouldn't sell my 2015. I'd drive it to 65% of capacity and put a new pack in.
I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.tkdbrusco said:Contrary to what people are saying about Nissan just ignoring the used Leaf market, I think they will have to address it. Note a few facts. There's 130,000 Leafs out there right now? Probably will be about 170,000 or more by the time the Gen2 get released. That's a lot of cars to ignore.
Here's the two major negative implications of leaving things the way they are and not offering a cheaper/increased range replacement option.
(1) You have to tell the people upgrading basically "screw you" I know you're an early adopter, but we can't help you. We either won't take your car back or we won't provide you a feasible option to stick with the brand.
(2) They are leaving nearly 200,000 cars as junk after <60,000 miles of use in most cases. If you want to discuss a negative environmental impact, let's talk about about junking 200,000 cars after such minimal mileage. Any benefit to the environment is wasted if this becomes the case.
There's also the real possibility that Nissan is the first manufacturer to lose the federal credit. If they lose this credit in 2018 (Est.) when a whole bunch of people are looking to turn in their Gen1 Leafs, they will need to address those customers to keep them in the brand. Most of these people have very fond relationships with their cars and the brand. If Nissan hangs them out to dry on their trade ins and also can't offer a full tax credit, then they are going to leave the brand. Offering a battery option that could both boost resale and also keep them in their Gen1 for a while longer, would likely keep them around until everyone loses the federal tax credit and all brands are on equal playing fields.
ishiyakazuo said:I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)
Slow1 said:ishiyakazuo said:I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)
You know, this made me wonder.. IF a competitor were to offer a premium trade-in on the 1st gen Leaf I wonder if they would be able to gain enough brand loyalty and goodwill to make it worth it.... and the marketing folks could emphasize how many Leaf owners were shifting to their superior/advanced/stable/goodMarketingWord brand....
In any case keep in mind that even with the success of the Leaf it is still a drop in the bucket of overall car sales (big drop, but...). And early adopters are notoriously difficult to retain as long-term customers (unless you are VERY innovative) since many of the things that draw them to you will get them to chase the next squirrel that runs by.... Thus it may well be too expensive to court them.
Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)tkdbrusco said:Slow1 said:ishiyakazuo said:I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)
You know, this made me wonder.. IF a competitor were to offer a premium trade-in on the 1st gen Leaf I wonder if they would be able to gain enough brand loyalty and goodwill to make it worth it.... and the marketing folks could emphasize how many Leaf owners were shifting to their superior/advanced/stable/goodMarketingWord brand....
In any case keep in mind that even with the success of the Leaf it is still a drop in the bucket of overall car sales (big drop, but...). And early adopters are notoriously difficult to retain as long-term customers (unless you are VERY innovative) since many of the things that draw them to you will get them to chase the next squirrel that runs by.... Thus it may well be too expensive to court them.
You bring up a really good point. If I'm Tesla, maybe I throw a few engineers at building a replacement pack for the Gen1 leaf, give them the task of keeping it cheap and at roughly 110mi of range. I then offer Gen1 leaf owners a nice trade in on the Gen1 leaf, stick a new pack in it (if needed) that only cost me $2-3K to make at my giga factory and then I am able to convert all this early adopters to a Model3?
Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)[/quote]ishiyakazuo said:You bring up a really good point. If I'm Tesla, maybe I throw a few engineers at building a replacement pack for the Gen1 leaf, give them the task of keeping it cheap and at roughly 110mi of range. I then offer Gen1 leaf owners a nice trade in on the Gen1 leaf, stick a new pack in it (if needed) that only cost me $2-3K to make at my giga factory and then I am able to convert all this early adopters to a Model3?
I think Tesla has tried to do that to some extent by opening up their patents for use by others. I agree that there's quite a bit of liability and effort involved, but I believe that Tesla's business plan is really battery-centric, not car-centric. They want to be the world leader in battery tech, and supply batteries and charging systems to others.Slow1 said:ishiyakazuo said:Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)
Reality check here though - the battery designs are fundamentally different. This solution would require that Tesla validate (and take liability) for the new battery design etc. Quite an expensive proposition and they seem busy enough with their own development efforts. Simply not likely to be enough profits in Gen1 Leaf battery replacements I imagine.
Now I do wonder if Tesla (or anyone) could succeed in publishing a standard reference design (mechanical as well as control/electrical interfaces) that other vehicle manufactures could adopt. Basically the form factor of the unit and all the mounting/plugs required. IF this happened I could see a world where battery systems are essentially a commodity - much like many common batteries are today. Could open up all sorts of interesting market opportunities from 3rd party replacements to renting capacity for a long trip and using a lower capacity battery for daily driving.... Ok, back to reality
I'm not.="tkdbrusco" I think the irony here is that we are all debating about how much we will lose on our Gen1's...
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