Evoforce said:
GRA... I wasn't the earliest of adopters either. But when the resale market of these cars neared $10,000 dollars, it made a tipping point for me to embrace it. That is the beauty of being able to buy cars that are second hand. A car that is a few years old yet is practically brand new was a no brainer for me and what suited my family situation. I no longer needed to set on the fence.
I had fully planned on building 2 electric cars using a 944 and a Metro as my donor cars. It would have cost me more in materials to build them than buying these Leafs. Not to mention, they are already engineered for all of the various components to work well together. I still plan to build those projects out using electric salvage. This is kind of another facet of how early adopters help to get even more gas powered cars off the road. I would now hate to rebuild both of those vehicles leaving them gas powered so a couple of wrecked electric cars aught to do it.
I think the plans you mention above to convert some cars to BEVs are enough to show that you are clearly way outside the mainstream! More power to you (the first BEV I ever saw was a Karmann Ghia that one of my AE customers had converted, about 25 years ago. Naturally, in addition to being into AE, he was also a member of EVAA). He commuted in it daily.
Evoforce said:
My lady and I truly enjoy our Leafs! Do we want that 200-300 or more mile electric car? Yes sir! But in all honesty, we really don't need that mileage but a very small fraction of time. What I want is an all electric truck with that range for hauling my boat to the lake and other hauling needs.
We all have different needs. And those can change over time too. For now, they still don't meet a very small part of my needs so again it hit the tipping point for me with the used car prices as low as they are and I can primarily utilize them. The low registration and HOV access here in Phoenix make it a win, win!
I'm glad that a used LEAF meets your needs now, but given their batteries rapid degradation in your climate, you really require a very limited daily range for them to be viable, which just doesn't work for most people. After all, you've got to get to four bars down before you can qualify for a warranty replacement, so you have to drive with restricted range for a high proportion of your time with the car.
Evoforce said:
You personally may never decide that you have a need for them or then maybe there will be that tipping point for you too. I (please no offence intended) find it odd that you have 4400 posts in a electric car owners forum but haven't pulled the trigger on one.
None taken - someone else (cwerdna IIRR) made exactly the same observation about 2,000 posts back. :lol:
Evoforce said:
Maybe it's that you are just keeping abreast of things and hoping for just the right porridge to suit you.
Right, plus offering whatever insights/opinions I have from having been through the process of nurturing another new tech through infancy a quarter century ago - so many of the mistakes that have been made by both the companies and the customers in the past 4-5 years have induced a major case of deja vu, and I've tried to provide insight to help people avoid making the same ones.
Note, the next couple of paragraphs are a long digression:
Of course, many of the most rabid fanbois didn't want to hear anything less than overwhelmingly optimistic opinions back in 2011-2012, no matter how grounded in experience they were - you could go back to posts from then and read how those of us who had lots of experience with the quirks of deep-cycle batteries and/or factors affecting car range were accused of being trolls or anti-EV when we pointed out that because all batteries degrade due to cycling, calendar life, heat and deep discharging, plus lose capacity in cold weather while resistive heating takes a lot of energy, and thicker air, harder rubber and wet-snowy roads all add to resistance, while hills, winds and a reserve all need to be allowed for, that people should not buy/lease BEVs expecting to get the EPA range for the long term or in winter, and should instead plan on only 40-50% of that range year round over a 3 year period. It wasn't until the first customers (in Phoenix, natch) started to report early rapid degradation due to heat that people started to look at the cars more objectively, and even then the customer who first reported early degradation was initially accused of being a liar, an ICE company shill, etc. When people invest not just a lot of money but also their egos/emotions in a purchase, objectivity often flies out the window.
The cure for this is usually time; once the initial infatuation wears off people are willing to be more objective. IME, with cars this is usually 6-18 months after purchase, although the quickest (and most expensive) disillusionment I recall here was a guy in the Chicago area who bought a LEAF in IIRR November 2011, based on the fanbois assurances as well as his own desire to believe that it would work for him. He then found that the first time he went out with his wife and [
2] young children in the car the following month, instead of the 70+ miles he'd been assured he'd have 'no problem', IIRC he was barely able to go 35? or so [
Correction, 52], and making it home (in the snow) required that he do without heat or defrost. He dumped the LEAF (IIRR total time from purchase was about 6 weeks) and bought a Volt, which is the car he should have bought from the get-go.
End of digression.
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At the moment, neither BEVs or FCEVs meet my requirements for capability, cost and infrastructure, although FCEVs are currently closer on capability and cost (and the manufacturers would pick up the fuel tab for 3 years), and the infrastructure is beginning to be built, but they all remain too expensive for now. And sustainable biofuels, cellulosic and especially algae-based, are starting to pick up speed again after a couple of years of disappointing progress, so maybe they'll be the way I ultimately go. Quite frankly, I'm perfectly willing to keep my now 13-year old Forester until 2020 or longer, if it means that I can change directly into a ZEV or net-zero carbon biofuel vehicle, that would also offer fairly autonomous freeway driving at a reasonable price. By then, though, I have hopes that the remaining need for me and perhaps a substantial minority of U.S. urban dwellers to _own_ a car may have disappeared, and we'll all have access to car-sharing, ride-sharing or what have you, maybe autonomous at that. While I'm hopefully still two or three decades away from losing my license, we have an aging population, and the loss of the access that results when the elderly lose their driving privileges is going to be a huge problem for our society absent autonomous cars (ride-sharing does help).
Evoforce said:
I get that you wish that people would not rely on auto's as much. Me too! But that is one desire that is not going to change in the American public's brain anytime in the foreseeable future. I ride electric bicycles and drivers do not want to share the road and feel they have all the rights to it and I have none.
Actually, the U.S. demographic and societal trends towards reduced car use are quite favorable, and it's already coming to pass in many of the U.S. cities where the creative class millennials as well as empty nest boomers are choosing to live. Still a long way to go compared to the average European city let alone someplace like Amsterdam or Copenhagen, but we are making progress. It's mostly still in progressive college towns (Davis, Berkeley, Boulder, Madison etc.) as well as those cities that saw substantial growth pre-automobile and had much higher density as a result, i.e. places like NYC, S.F., Chicago, Boston etc.
Of course, you also have monuments to car-dependent sprawl and cheap energy/air conditioning like Atlanta, Jacksonville and Phoenix, where it's almost physically impossible to get anywhere without a car. Living in the Bay Area I was able to choose where to live so that I could minimize my auto-dependence; that still isn't an option in many U.S. central cities and suburbs. BTW, I don't know if you're familiar with it, but if you want to see how good or bad your options are from your home, go to this site and enter your address to see what your Walkscore is, i.e. how many places there are that you can reasonably walk, bike or take transit to: https://www.walkscore.com/
The score ranges (for walking) are as follows:
- 90–100 Walker’s Paradise
Daily errands do not require a car
70–89 Very Walkable
Most errands can be accomplished on foot
50–69 Somewhat Walkable
Some errands can be accomplished on foot
25–49 Car-Dependent
Most errands require a car
0–24 Car-Dependent
Almost all errands require a car
In Phoenix, you're probably down well below 50, i.e. Car-Dependent (although I chose to move to my current address long before Walkscore existed, my walkscore is 88 because routine errands within walking range and a bike commute, plus nearby access to rapid transit were my requirements; I have a friend in an exurb, 46 miles from me, whose walkscore is 29. On a related note, while he's always been big and heavy, he now weighs well over 300 lb.).
Evoforce said:
Anyway... Arizona quit issuing HOV passes for hybrids but pure electric still get passes. Personally, I don't think hybrids should get them but that shows by bias. I don't have one so I don't have a horse in that race... But aren't they deserving of a little special treatment too? They still are less polluting (overall) than a pure gasser. Just not on the freeway.
What I'd like to see is an adjustment to the HOV lane regs that reads something like this, so that bad habits aren't incentivized and good ones are:
"1. On any section of freeway with four or more lanes in one direction including one or more existing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane(s), one or more lanes immediately to the right of the rightmost HOV lane will be re-designated as a High Efficiency Vehicle (HEV) lane, with distinctive markings [Circle, Square, Triangle or whatever's agreed on; HOV lanes retain the diamond] and appropriate signage to indicate their presence, as with HOV lanes. The hours in which the HEV restrictions shall be enforced will be the same as applies to the adjoining HOV lane(s), unless otherwise stated.
2. Single Occupant Vehicles will no longer be admitted to HOV lanes during their hours of enforcement, regardless of their possession of White or Green stickers. Only vehicles with the number of persons on board as required by the particular HOV lane will be able to use the HOV lane.
3. To qualify to use an HEV lane, a vehicle must achieve at least 40 MPGe EPA [this could be Combined or HWY rating; since the lanes are intended to allow free-flowing traffic, I lean towards using the HWY rating), and bear appropriate White, Green or Yellow stickers to indicate that they can use the lane [this grandfathers in all the regular Priuses that are running around with yellow stickers from when they were allowed to use the HOV lanes].
4. If tolls are imposed, HOV lanes shall have the lowest toll or be free, HEV lanes a medium toll, and normal lanes the highest toll.
Even if people still insist on commuting solo, this would encourage them to buy fuel efficient cars for commuting, regardless of the tech they choose (including high MPG ICEs), while not giving them the same level of perks that car-pooling does.
Evoforce said:
In the end, I just hope you find your tipping point soon with all the time you have invested in this forum. I would like to see you enjoy your new pure electric car as much as we enjoy ours! Maybe 2017 Bolt? Or maybe a year or two after it resells at a better price.
See my comments above. I'm willing to wait (a Bolt won't do; I need a small AWD CUV like one built on the Tesla Model 3 platform, or else something like a less expensive Hyundai Tucson FCEV). I have many other environmental interests and know there are many ways to achieve a particular end, and I've been in for the long haul since my teens, so I'm in no rush.
