Capacity Loss on 2011-2012 LEAFs

[Herm]

Lemon law was mentioned already, how about class action suit?.. just wanted to be the first to mention it

I'm sure that Nissan keeps track of the capacity at the yearly battery test, so they know the real numbers.

It is a $13k battery pack, what could Nissan do about it?

1. add a 3/36k capacity warranty to 70%?
2. change/adjust battery chemistry?.. either LiFePO4 or lithium titanate will be much heavier
3. retrofit an active cooling system?.. it may not solve the aging issue and it will definitely lower the range
4. software change to discharge the battery to 80% if longer than 2 hours at 100%?

An active cooling system could be as simple as an AC cooled cold plate against the battery case and a bit of insulation...

 

[Stoaty]

Nissan's attempt to obfuscate by painting this as a statistical anomaly is a big mistake, IMO.

I'll make my own prediction: Some Nissan LEAFs in Phoenix will be at or below 70% of original capacity after 2 years. We'll see how many Phoenix LEAFs are closer to that or Nissan's prediction of 10 years.

I recently learned from another thread that calendar loss of battery capacity is proportional to the square root of time. If this is true, I would expect the following capacity loss in 5 years for those who have lost 15% in one year:

15% * sqrt(5) = 33.5%

Granted this is a very rough approximation, and doesn't separate calendar loss from cycling losses, but calendar loss appears to be the dominant factor in high temperature areas. Please correct me if my understanding of this is wrong.

 

[RegGuheert]

Please correct me if my understanding of this is wrong.

I certainly cannot correct you, as I do not have better information. But I will still be very surprised if *any* Phoenix LEAFs still have 70% of their capacity at 5 years.

But my point really was that Nissan repeating the party line of 70% at 10 years in response to a question about capacity degradation in Phoenix is simply disingenuous.

 

[edatoakrun]

It is a $13k battery pack, what could Nissan do about it?...

IMO, the LEAF battery pack replacement cost is actually a far larger unknown variable in total ownership costs, than the rate of battery degradation, at least if it does, in fact, average only about 20-30% over 8 years/100,000 miles.

I would not be surprised if Nissan announced Battery pack replacement costs, and perhaps even trade-in allowances, for non-abused batteries, about the time The Smyrna plant comes on-line.

I doubt this price would be as high as $13k. I would expect that an actual price, at whatever price point announced, probably between $6-12K, would relieve a lot of anxiety, and be a lot easier for Nissan to account for, in future costs, as opposed to a necessarily vague future capacity warranty.

I have to wonder about the cost effectiveness, and overall energy efficiency, of some of the more extreme proposals on this topic, such as air conditioning your garage, as a battery life extending strategy.

 

[Stoaty]

But my point really was that Nissan repeating the party line of 70% at 10 years in response to a question about capacity degradation in Phoenix is simply disingenuous.

Yes, that seems highly unlikely unless degradation slows to a trickle. Using the same square root of time formula, the capacity loss at 10 years would be:

15% * sqrt(10) = 47%

That is a far cry from a 30% loss. On the other hand, I have lost no more than 5% in the first year (don't have a good baseline, and I suspect that my Leaf never had 281 Gids based on the lower than expected reading when I got my Gidometer in October). Using the same formula, I might achieve a capacity loss as follows:

5 years - 11.2%
10 years - 15.7%

If these guesses are accurate, some Leafs might do VERY well, and others horribly based on temperature. Time will tell.

 

[palmermd]

I would not get too worked up about Nissan's response in this article just yet. It is obviously not an official Nissan response to the issue. In fact, there is not even a reference as to who made these comments other than "a Nissan representative". Did this representative ask not to be named? If it was an official statement, it would have come from a source that was named along with some sort of official document. Lets not jump to conclusions about a statement from an unnamed source. There is also no reference as to when this interview took place. Could have been when there were still only 5-6 reports here on this forum. Or, it is possible the person interviewed is not someone who is "in the know".

I still think Nissan will wait until the end of June when the 1700 cars sold last year have come in for their one year checkup. If you look at the numbers they had 1000 checkups at the end of April, by the end of May that number doubled, and then doubled again by the end of June (VERY roughly speaking). By the end of June they will probably have enough data to start making some conclusions. It is important to get everyone (hot and cold states) to have their one year checkup done as soon as possible.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I have to wonder about the cost effectiveness, and overall energy efficiency, of some of the more extreme proposals on this topic, such as air conditioning your garage, as a battery life extending strategy.

I do not think CC in garage will have that much effect in hot climate if you use the car (as already demonstrated in PHX). Of course if you will not drive the car and keep in CC garage that will extend the life of the battery, but in that case what will be the reason for owning Leaf. I think battery cooling system will solve hot climate problems

 

[leafkabob]

I would be pissed if I had bought a Leaf and lived in Phoenix.

That sums it up pretty well alright. I still have all 12 bars, but being in Phoenix, I'm not happy I bought
- and I'm really glad I just bought a Volt. I'm seriously thinking of trading in my 2011 and leasing a 2013. If they give me a hard time about having 11 capacity bars at that time, I'll tell them it's normal.

Someone else posted this in TickTock's original thread about AZ Lemon Laws. Anyone interested in pursuing this route?

http://www.bbb.org/us/Storage/16/Documents/BBBAutoLine/AZ-LLsummary.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PROBLEMS COVERED
The lemon law covers any defect or condition that substantially impairs the use and value of the motor vehicle to the consumer. This is referred to as a nonconformity. The lemon law provides manufacturers with an affirmative defense if it can be shown that the nonconformity is the result of abuse, neglect, or unauthorized modifications or alterations of the motor vehicle.

Hi Shrink,
I am definintely interested in resolving this issue with Nissan. I am a bit disappointed that Nissan is not being proactive, but at this point I think it is up to me to move forward toward resolution. I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

 

[RegGuheert]

I think battery cooling system will solve hot climate problems

My preference is for Nissan to stick to their guns and keep their base offering passively-cooled to keep costs and repair complexity down. Yes, they will need a better answer for the hot climates, but that could be done with a different vehicle or with a high-temperature-tolerant battery chemistry for future LEAFs that could be either the standard or an optional hot-climate upgrade. That technology is clearly right around the corner from multiple sources.

 

[TomT]

I somehow don't think this is going to mollify anyone... Nissan really does need to get their PR nose out of their butt...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1076847_2011-nissan-leaf-battery-capacity-loss-nissan-responds

 

[KJD]

I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

Does anyone know the total number of Leafs sold in AZ ?

 

[DaveEV]

I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

Does anyone know the total number of Leafs sold in AZ ?

At the very least, The EV Project reports 65+ in Tuscon and 224+ in Phoenix.

Looking at the most recent report, in Arizona most start charging around 11pm - typically finished by 1am. Peak charge time is around midnight.

70% of charges charge to >90% when at home in Phoenix
20% of charges charge to 80% when at home in Phoenix.
40% of charges charge to >90% when at home in Tuscon.
50% of charges charge to 80% when at home in Tuscon.

It doesn't appear that Nissan has done an adequate job of educating customers on best practices for battery longevity - but I am surprised at the big difference in charging behavior in Tuscon compared to Phoenix - Tuscon has the highest percentage of 80% charge users - Phoenix's numbers are similar to the other EV Project areas.

 

[palmermd]

70% of charges charge to >90% when at home in Phoenix
20% of charges charge to 80% when at home in Phoenix.
40% of charges charge to >90% when at home in Tuscon.
50% of charges charge to 80% when at home in Tuscon.

Why are they both 90 %? 10% charge to somewhere other than 80 or >90? I suppose that means that 10% of charges get interrupted by the driver before completion. Seems like a big number and too much of a coincidence that they are both 10%.

 

[palmermd]

At the very least, The EV Project reports 100+ in Tuscon and 400+ in Phoenix.

Are you looking at the same report I am? I see about half that many. http://www.theevproject.com/downloads/documents/Q1%202012%20EVP%20Report.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Vehicles     
Region¹                                         Nissan Leafs Enrolled to Date²   
Phoenix, AZ Metropolitan Area                     224 
Tucson, AZ Metropolitan Area                      65

Interestingly most of the cars are approaching a year old. If you go back to Q3 2011 the numbers were 170, 57. But I bet the real number is closer to your estimate as not everyone is in the project. I have no idea what the percentage would be. I suspect less than 25% are in the project, but it is a complete WAG.

 

[LEAFfan]

Does anyone know the total number of Leafs sold in AZ ?

My EG is between 500 and 900 just in the Phoenix area.

 

[DaveEV]

Are you looking at the same report I am? I see about half that many. http://www.theevproject.com/downloads/documents/Q1%202012%20EVP%20Report.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Whoops, I was totally reading charging stations, not number of vehicles.

 

[shrink]

Hi Shrink,
I am definintely interested in resolving this issue with Nissan. I am a bit disappointed that Nissan is not being proactive, but at this point I think it is up to me to move forward toward resolution. I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

I agree, leafkabob, and you certainly would be well qualified to do this. I'll call you or e-mail you soon. Maybe we should start a separate thread in the regional section.

 

[palmermd]

Hi Shrink,
I am definintely interested in resolving this issue with Nissan. I am a bit disappointed that Nissan is not being proactive, but at this point I think it is up to me to move forward toward resolution. I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

I agree, leafkabob, and you certainly would be well qualified to do this. I'll call you or e-mail you soon. Maybe we should start a separate thread in the regional section.

I think you'll have more success with a private Google group or something of that nature and just have a separate thread here to only announce results at the end and not progress or lack thereof. Any discussions here will only bring lots of outsider comments which only distract from your goal.

 

[leafkabob]

Hi Shrink,
I am definintely interested in resolving this issue with Nissan. I am a bit disappointed that Nissan is not being proactive, but at this point I think it is up to me to move forward toward resolution. I think it might be beneficial for all of us Phoenix folks to be in communication with one another but I'm not sure I want to discuss it all here on the forum. Give me a call or PM if you want to talk about it.

I agree, leafkabob, and you certainly would be well qualified to do this. I'll call you or e-mail you soon. Maybe we should start a separate thread in the regional section.

I think you'll have more success with a private Google group or something of that nature and just have a separate thread here to only announce results at the end and not progress or lack thereof. Any discussions here will only bring lots of outsider comments which only distract from your goal.

That is exactly what I was thinking. I'm not particularly interested in a public discussion about my/our approaching Nissan. But I am interested in inviting any and all "lost a bar" folks to provide their data and voice to this effort. I'm not sure what the best way to put that offer out there. I thought about starting a new thread to solicit partners but I am reluctant to do that because I don't want to encourage a public hashing of this. Obviously, I'm still processing how best to do this.

 

[TickTock]

How about a G+ circle?