Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

[edatoakrun]

NYT article below give some Idea of how much public and private money is already pouring into developing the AV industry:

Among the States, Self-Driving Cars Have Ignited a Gold Rush


Whether it is fuel savings, safer commutes or freed-up time behind the wheel, drivers have many reasons to embrace self-driving cars.

But another group is just as eager to see these vehicles on the road: politicians.

Lawmakers from California, Texas and Virginia are wooing the autonomous car industry, along with the jobs and tax revenue that come with it.

They are financing research centers, building fake suburbs for testing the cars, and, perhaps most important, going light on regulation, all in an effort to attract a rapidly growing industry.

The prize: A piece of the estimated $20 billion automakers and other companies will spend globally on development over the next five years, according to an analysis by Gartner...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/automobiles/self-driving-cars-ignite-gold-rush-among-states.html

Within only a few decades, I expect that we will have reached the point where most all new vehicles sold for use on roads will be autonomous BEVs (ABEVs?).

I think the shift to AVs in will have far more profound immediate effects on the economy and society than the shift to BEVs, while the greater benefits from the shift to BEVs will take centuries (mostly from less-disastrous effects from climate change) to fully realize.

 

[GRA]

Re AVs and Uber etc., there's another possibility. Via ABG:

The best music often comes from the notes left unplayed, and so it was with the Tesla Motors Q2 earnings call with financial analysts this week. While we heard upbeat news about the Model X delivery schedule – and downbeat news about the company's vehicle output forecasts and profit margins – perhaps the most interesting hook came from a question left unanswered.

Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley brought up a recent report about Uber CEO Travis Kalanick telling venture capitalist (and major Tesla investor) Steve Jurvetson that he would like to buy 500,000 of the automaker's autonomous vehicles in five years time. Jonas then queried Elon Musk as to whether he saw supplying vehicles to ride-sharing companies as a good business opportunity or whether Tesla might just "cut out the middle man and sell on-demand electric mobility services directly from the company on its own platform?"

After a four-second pause, Musk responded with, "That's an insightful question," then went on to say, "I don't think I should answer it." Which, to our ears, sounds like Musk has already had this epiphany and at least one future ride-sharing provider might be vertically integrated. Still, such an eventuality is still some years out, with its exact arrival dependent upon technological and legislative breakthroughs.

 

[mjblazin]

Good reasons exist why for 80 years car manufacturers sold product to car rental firms and did not vertically integrate into that market. Absolutely nothing is different about autonomous vehicles or BEVs that obviate those reasons.

 

[GRA]

Good reasons exist why for 80 years car manufacturers sold product to car rental firms and did not vertically integrate into that market. Absolutely nothing is different about autonomous vehicles or BEVs that obviate those reasons.

But Tesla's business model is much more Apple (iPod/iPhone) than GM, so what made sense for GM et al may not make sense for Tesla.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

I am very skeptical that autonomous cars can be made to work in all real world conditions. Snow and ice and autumn leafs and trash and multi-way oddball intersections and fog - and many other conditions that impair or disable some or all of the sensors, or present novel conditions that overwhelm the software; are all yet to be even tested.

Costs will be prohibitive. Liability in accidents will be a legal nightmare.

Why don't we already have the accident avoidance stuff on a lot of cars? Autonomous parking is child's play compared to autonomous driving. How many cars even have automatic parking?

 

[GRA]

I am very skeptical that autonomous cars can be made to work in all real world conditions. Snow and ice and autumn leafs and trash and multi-way oddball intersections and fog - and many other conditions that impair or disable some or all of the sensors, or present novel conditions that overwhelm the software; are all yet to be even tested.

Costs will be prohibitive. Liability in accidents will be a legal nightmare.

Why don't we already have the accident avoidance stuff on a lot of cars? Autonomous parking is child's play compared to autonomous driving. How many cars even have automatic parking?

Several are introducing autonomous parking in the next year or so. The i3 has autonomous parallel parking now, but seems to have some issues. The roll-out of AV will undoubtedly be slow and careful while the issues get addressed, but that's to be expected. Fog shouldn't be an issue, given that autonomous cars typically include forward-looking radar, and even conventional cars are increasingly equipped with auto-braking systems and adaptive cruise control. If these features can prevent just one chain-reaction pile-up in the fog on I-5, they may pay for themselves as far as the insurance companies are concerned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple-vehicle_collision

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Press Release
First Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles May Appear in 2017, says Strategy Analytics

Deployments Limited to Luxury Models at First, Then Extending to the Mass Market That Could Displace Conductive Charging by 2028, With 7.9M Systems

BOSTON, Aug. 10, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- A number of auto makers claim that current conductive charging systems, with their cumbersome and heavy cables, are making plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles difficult to sell. Wireless charging systems are being developed to make the charging experience more convenient for consumers and to encourage them to recharge their vehicles more often.

The Strategy Analytics Powertrain, Body, Safety & Chassis (Automotive Electronics) Service report, 2017: The "Important Year" For Wireless Charging In Electric Vehicles, looks at the progress in wireless charging developments, as well as commenting on possible deployment strategies and forecasting demand for wireless charging systems.

Click here for the report: http://bit.ly/1gX4LYh

Technology providers believe that wireless charging systems will enter the electric vehicle market as early as 2017, saying that some OEMs have already implemented them in their next product cycle. The SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) hopes to have its J-2954 standards finalized as early as 2017, with the recommendations released as early as late-2016.

"While the selling point for wireless charging systems is undoubtedly beneficial to the promotion of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles, they will firstly be offered as costly optional purchase limited to mainly luxury auto brands, when they launch in 2017. Other challenges include the speed of finalizing standards, since it is critical for wireless charging systems to be interoperable, in instances where the consumer buys a different brand of electric vehicle or when charging on public infrastructures," said Kevin Mak, Senior Analyst in the Automotive Electronics Service (AES) at Strategy Analytics. He added, "Once the hurdles of cost and standardization can be cleared after the first five years of deployment, then the long-term prospects could realize a mass market potential, with the possibility they could even displace conductive charging systems by 2028."

Also via ABG:

UK to trial under-road wireless charging for EVs this year

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/11/uk-to-trial-under-road-wireless-charging-for-evs-this-year/

 

[NeilBlanchard]

How autonomous cars handle a snowstorm or freezing rain?

How will they work on unplowed snow covered roads?

How about backroads in New England that have no painted lines, and piles of leaves and/or puddles on the edges?

How will they handle bizarre 5+ way intersections?

How will autonomous cars handle blowing autumn leaves?

Who is liable when an autonomous car has an accident?

 

[DesertSprings]

All of these situations will eventually be addressed (and I believe some of those can be handled now). Until then, autonomous car adoption will stick with areas where the cars are most suitable and by people whose lifestyle fit best with them. It's not like Feds are going to just snap their fingers and outlaw self driven cars overnight.

It's like arguing that 2 door sports cars will never be adopted because you can't use them to tow your boat, you can't transport your whole family in them, nor can you bring a load of lumber home with one.

Or that no one will buy a Leaf because you can't drive from Los Angeles to Sturgis in one.

 

[mjblazin]

Good reasons exist why for 80 years car manufacturers sold product to car rental firms and did not vertically integrate into that market. Absolutely nothing is different about autonomous vehicles or BEVs that obviate those reasons.

But Tesla's business model is much more Apple (iPod/iPhone) than GM, so what made sense for GM et al may not make sense for Tesla.

If Apple built real cars instead of toy phones, its business model would look more like GM and other manufacturers too. Sticking to its business model is what drove Apple to forget about building TVs and deny that ludicrous idea of an Apple car. Even Google with its Google cars has no intention of actually building the things. What you make drives the model. I

 

[GRA]

Good reasons exist why for 80 years car manufacturers sold product to car rental firms and did not vertically integrate into that market. Absolutely nothing is different about autonomous vehicles or BEVs that obviate those reasons.

But Tesla's business model is much more Apple (iPod/iPhone) than GM, so what made sense for GM et al may not make sense for Tesla.

If Apple built real cars instead of toy phones, its business model would look more like GM and other manufacturers too. Sticking to its business model is what drove Apple to forget about building TVs and deny that ludicrous idea of an Apple car. Even Google with its Google cars has no intention of actually building the things. What you make drives the model.

I guess we'll see if Elon agrees with you, in a few years.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Apple Car parody ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uueC1hHYqzs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

Mckinsey: "Full speed ahead: How the driverless car could transform cities" : http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/sustainability/full_speed_ahead_how_the_driverless_car_could_transform_cities?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1508

Doesn't really say anything we haven't already discussed, except maybe to go into more detail on the macro effect on cities themselves.

 

[edatoakrun]

Seems to confirm Nissan will into ‘traffic jam mode’ just about when the LEAF gen 2 and/or Infiniti EV is introduced:

Nissan plans autonomous tech in crossovers by 2017


Nissan will introduce autonomous technology into its model line-up by 2017, according to the vice president of vehicle design and development, David Moss.

Testing of the technology is under way, and while it will initially be used to enhance safety features, it will lead to a fully autonomous car that utilises the manufacturer’s electric technology...

“We will bring in technologies that improve safety but take away the less attractive bits of driving, like sitting in traffic jams. But we don’t want to take the fun out of the cars.

“It will initially work in single lane ‘traffic jam mode’ up to a certain speed, then the next thing – which will only be a few years after – will be to take it to ‘highway mode’ where we bring in multi-lane capabilities so the vehicles have the ability to decide to change lanes,” he added.

Autonomous safety features could debut in Nissan’s crossover line-up, but Moss confirmed it will eventually filter down to the entire model range...

Moss confirmed that Nissan’s commitment to its “zero-emissions strategy” means that electric technology will be used in conjunction with autonomous tech to help ease the growing traffic density on roads and also to address the issue of worsening pollution levels worldwide.

“We think that’s what customers want because the population is getting bigger, the number of cars is increasing and we need to tackle how we can get the volume of traffic sorted,” he said.

“Autonomous features can do that, and when we combine that with our zero emissions strategy we can start to tackle the pollution side of it, too.”

Although Moss believes it will take time for consumers to become comfortable with autonomous technology, he said that older drivers could prove to be the biggest beneficiaries: “These features can help our ageing population keep their independence because they can drive in safety on the roads for longer.”

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/nissan-plans-autonomous-tech-crossovers-2017

 

[evnow]

Looks like some companies are very optimistic about how quickly autonomous cars can be introduced in the wild. Google for eg., thinks it just depends on regulatory hurdles being cleared.

I used to think, this would take decades - but recently I'm getting convinced that before the end of this decade we'll see autonomous cars (at least ones with steering wheel).

It would be interesting to see whether traditional auto makers or the tech giants will get there first.

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Can't accept autonomous liability? Get out of the game, says Volvo
CEO Embraces Responsibility, Presses Federal Governent For Consistency

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/09/volvo-accept-autonomous-car-liability/

Volvo chief executive officer and president Håkan Samuelsson says one of the most vexing challenges facing the auto industry can be solved with a simple statement: Manufacturers should be held responsible if their autonomous technology causes car accidents. Two days after the Swedish automaker pledged to be "fully liable" for accidents caused by its self-driving technology, Samuelsson pushed the entire industry to follow Volvo's lead.

"We are the suppliers of this technology and we are liable for everything the car is doing in autonomous mode," he said Thursday during an appearance in Washington DC. "If you are not ready to make such a statement, you shouldn't try to develop an autonomous system."

Google and Mercedes-Benz have made similar pledges, but it's not yet clear whether other automakers will follow. A spokesperson for the Auto Alliance, an industry trade group representing major OEMs says the organization has no position on whether the industry should be held liable.

But in the span of a few short days, the series of announcements from Volvo, Google, and Mercedes-Benz set a substantial precedent. Even though self-driving cars aren't yet on sale, the industry has been mulling questions over autonomous liability for some time, and no clear answers had emerged. Samuelsson said further inaction would hinder progress on commercial implementation of autonomobiles and stumped for federal guidance and regulation that would ready roads for deployment.

Details of Volvo's liability pledge are still being discussed, but the CEO said his plan was ultimately a simple one. Volvo would accept liability for all crashes caused by the self-driving technology. It would not include coverage for incidents that occurred when autonomous-capable cars were under human control, nor would it cover instances when a car operated in autonomous mode could not avoid the reckless actions of another vehicle.

"If the system is causing an accident or over-speeding because it didn't read a sign in the right way, that is what I mean," he said. "That is what should be included. . . ."

 

[edatoakrun]

Tesla now has now introduced its autopilot, and the experiment of whether using it results in more or fewer collisions involving Ss (and eventually, Xs) now begins.

All the videos I've seen posted on YouTube (so far) show S drivers re-taking the wheel in time, following autopilot disengagement.

The question probably is how quickly the same drivers will react, after they have become acclimated to (or dependent on) autopilot functionality.

Today's W.P. has a story discussing the possible outcomes:

How human nature could foil Tesla’s new autopilot


When Tesla owners activate their car’s new autopilot feature, a warning appears in a small box at the bottom of the dashboard:

Always keep your hands on the wheel. Be prepared to take over at any time.

Most of Tesla’s vehicles updated with the autopilot option this week, offering one of the best examples of the rapid progress in car technology. But the nature of Tesla’s system, which will at times call on drivers to retake control of their vehicle immediately, could lead to unsafe situations as checked-out drivers aren’t ready to safely take the wheel, warn researchers and driving safety experts.

“If because of the automation, inattention goes up substantially, then the number of crashes could well go up,” cautioned Alain Kornhauser, who chairs Princeton University’s autonomous vehicle engineering program. “If the amount of inattention remains the same, then many fewer Teslas will crash due to that amount of inattention — the automation substantially reduces the probability of a crash.”

Tesla drivers will be alerted by a chime and visual alert when they need to take over, which in some cases could be immediately. While that may grab drivers’ attention, the danger is that given human nature, it won’t always be enough time for them to react to a dangerous situation. A few seconds of notice could be the difference between a safe trip and a crash...

A recent Stanford University study found that a two-second warning – more time than Tesla drivers are guaranteed — was not enough time to expect drivers to be able to safely retake control of a vehicle that switches from autonomous to manual mode...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/10/16/how-human-nature-could-foil-teslas-new-autopilot/

See page 11 for a discussion on this point:

Interesting story on how Google's approach is different than established automakers.

IMO, Google probably has it right, and most everyone else probably has it wrong, if they plan to remain dependent on humans for back-up indefinitely...

Google’s Plan to Eliminate Human Driving in 5 Years

...What’s important here is Google’s commitment to its all-or-nothing approach, which contrasts with the steady-as-she-goes approach favored by automakers like Mercedes, Audi and Nissan...

One of the trickiest—and little discussed—challenges facing automakers is how to handle the transition between computers and humans, particularly in an emergency. Building an autonomous system that requires occasional human control raises tricky questions, not the least of which is how you ensure the person at the wheel is alert and ready to take over. Audi’s testing has shown it takes an average of 3 to 7 seconds, and as long as 10, for a driver to snap to attention and take control, even when prompted by flashing lights and verbal warnings. At lot can can happen in 10 seconds, especially when a vehicle is moving more than 100 feet per second.

And as humans drive less and less, won’t we get worse at it? Doesn’t that make us a terrible backup system?...

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/google-wants-eliminate-human-driving-5-years/

 

[edatoakrun]

More details from Nissan on how soon, and how autonomous.

Let's hope Nissan's introduction is not a beta version, and followed with a slew of YouTube videos showing LEAFs driving themselves into the oncoming traffic lane or off the road...

Nissan's prototype Leaf tests new autonomous technology

Nissan Motor Co., aiming to put autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020, has unveiled its latest prototype, a sensor-laden Leaf electric vehicle that can change lanes, pass cars and merge onto and off of highway by itself.

The system previews a new technology called Piloted Drive 1.0 that Nissan says it will offer in Japan by the end of next year...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151023/OEM04/151029922/nissans-prototype-leaf-tests-new-autonomous-technology

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

I wonder how reliable the nav systems will be. Also, how quick or reliable a voice override command would be in a car with no operator controls. I haven't experienced it yet in the '15, but had 3 occasions in the '12 when the nav directed me to take wrong, dangerous, or unpassable routes to a destination. If the nav is not constantly updated, some newer roads don't show at all. I think I'd prefer a model with a manual drive option.

 

[Reddy]

I recently saw the autonomous Nissan Leaf in Silicon Valley. Pretty cool. There was a person in the passenger seat, probably with a 2nd set of controls. The future is coming faster than we think!

Here's another article on this stuff:
http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/26/how-the-leaf-is-helping-nissan-get-to-autonomous-cars/