Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

[timhebb]

I enjoy driving too much to let some computer do it for me. If I can I will always drive my own vehicle. I see these as good for old folks and maybe things like taxis but I don't want one.

The question I would guess you, and many of us, will ultimately have to answer is how much you value driving yourself. When actuaries set insurance rates for human drivers at double, or quadruple - or higher - those for autonomous vehicles, will that affect your decision?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

I want a model with seats facing each other, so we can play games on longer trips. Maybe a small microwave or cook center with coffee and a toaster, so we can cook while we travel. Maybe a built in toilet? Nah, too wierd. Wouldn't necessarily need windows, but it is nice to look around. If we're eating and playing cards, we might as well drink. (But officer, we're not driving!) Could be a mobile office, so no wasted time between clients. Could change the baby as we roll along, heat up a bottle or breast feed, try doing that with any other EV. Could get a sleeper model, read the kids a bedtime story and have the car wake us up when we arrive. No kids, no windows, sleeper model, could start the honeymoon as you drive away from the reception. Driving is fun,sure, but not driving could be pretty fun too.

 

[TomT]

Sounds like the car that Top Gear built a number of years ago! Their's had a chandelier too...

I want a model with seats facing each other, so we can play games on longer trips. Maybe a small microwave or cook center with coffee and a toaster, so we can cook while we travel. Maybe a built in toilet?

 

[edatoakrun]

First time I've heard a specific timetable for Nissan's introduction of autonomous functions in production vehicles.

You can watch the entire speech and press conference with questions on multiple subjects at the link below.

Biggest BEV news may be that Chinese LEAF (venucia) production began in July (at ~39 minutes).

Carlos Ghosn, president and CEO of Nissan Motor Co., Ltd., today announced the Japanese carmaker's launch timetable for the latest vehicle automation technologies aimed at accelerating consumer adoption of Autonomous Drive systems.

The Nissan CEO said new technologies including automated lane controls and highway traffic management systems, to be introduced over the next four years, would demonstrate to consumers the viability and value of Autonomous Drive systems, which Nissan intends to make commercially viable by 2020.

Autonomous Drive technologies, which are being introduced progressively by Nissan, are designed to enhance road safety and driving conditions by automating everyday tasks for motorists. Unlike pilot-projects for completely self-driving vehicles, currently undergoing preliminary tests elsewhere in the industry, drivers remain in control and "at the wheel" in Nissan models equipped with Autonomous Drive functions.

"By the end of 2016, Nissan will make available the next two technologies under its autonomous drive strategy," said Mr. Ghosn. "We are bringing to market a traffic-jam pilot, a technology enabling cars to drive autonomously – and safely – on congested highways. In the same timeframe, we will make fully-automated parking systems available across a wide range of vehicles."

In a speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, he added: "This will be followed in 2018 by the introduction of multiple-lane controls, allowing cars to autonomously negotiate hazards and change lanes. And before the end of the decade, we will introduce intersection-autonomy, enabling vehicles to negotiate city cross-roads without driver intervention."

Nissan has been at the forefront of industry efforts to introduce greater automation in new vehicles, aimed at relieving motorists of mundane tasks while enhancing safety, reducing congestion and helping to lower emissions.

"In pursuit of those goals, Nissan must seize the growth opportunities created by major socio-economic trends affecting the world's car industry," added Mr. Ghosn.

He predicted that four major trends would drive demand for Autonomous Drive technologies, more zero-emission vehicles such as the Nissan LEAF, the world's best-selling electric vehicles, and greater in-car connectivity...

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/carlos-ghosn-outlines-launch-timetable-for-autonomous-drive-technologies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[timhebb]

I want a model with seats facing each other, so we can play games on longer trips. Maybe a small microwave or cook center with coffee and a toaster, so we can cook while we travel. Maybe a built in toilet? Nah, too wierd. Wouldn't necessarily need windows, but it is nice to look around. If we're eating and playing cards, we might as well drink. (But officer, we're not driving!) Could be a mobile office, so no wasted time between clients. Could change the baby as we roll along, heat up a bottle or breast feed, try doing that with any other EV. Could get a sleeper model, read the kids a bedtime story and have the car wake us up when we arrive. No kids, no windows, sleeper model, could start the honeymoon as you drive away from the reception. Driving is fun,sure, but not driving could be pretty fun too.

These are quite prescient visions of the impact autonomous vehicles will probably have on vehicle design. Concepts like 'front' and 'back' will be obsolete and, as you say, windows will be optional: designers could go to either extreme in terms of bringing the outdoors in or shutting out the environment totally. My favorite concept involves a circular or oval interior with a plush custom door-to-door lounging platform offering fully reclining seating in a circular arrangement, and a high domed canopy equipped with 3D and IMAX type theatrical technologies: an advanced mobile theater/entertainment venue.

Who still wants to drive?

 

[johnrhansen]

I imagine a limo without the driver! But who's going to open the door for me?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

I imagine a limo without the driver! But who's going to open the door for me?

The limo opens the door by itself. Will need a robot footman that pops out from underneath, or the back, or something, to collect your luggage.

I've lost the link, but the other day on Facebook I saw that the FBI was worried about them being used for car bombs. On the other hand, with the cameras and other on board sensors, they'd be useful for mobile surveillance. Big brother's car may be watching you.

 

[edatoakrun]

Humans Need Not Apply

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Entire video worth watching, but autos are discussed from ~5 minutes till ~7 minutes in.

 

[edatoakrun]

The "rolling lounge" vehicle concept is now a reality, if only in a prototype.

Watch the video at the link below.

Mercedes-Benz calls its new concept car the F 015 Luxury in Motion.

But the all-electric, fully autonomous-drive vehicle is more than just a car; it's also a rolling lounge that's wired to the max.

The luxury automaker unveiled the prototype at the Consumer Electronics Show on Monday in Las Vegas, offering a peek into how connected cars may be in the future.

Among the F 015's features are:
•Inside door panels with web-connected touch screens that can pull in exterior views from 360-degree view cameras;
•Front seats that swivel to face backward, even when the car is driving, and
•The ability to track the car's location while it parks itself, via a smartphone app...

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/mercedes-futuristic-view-autonomy-meets-connectivity-n280546" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Deleted member 14724]

I'm skeptical of the near-term viability of self-drive vehicles. I believe in the technology, but I don't think municipalities will appreciate the revenue loss, so I think they will either be banned in many places or will be subject to some weird taxes.

 

[edatoakrun]

I wonder if Ghosn is referring to Infiniti LE or LEAF gen 2 when he says "beginning in 2016" ?

Nissan Motor Corp. and NASA formed a five-year pact to develop the technologies that will enable autonomous driving.The first vehicle to use hardware and software jointly developed by Nissan and NASA is scheduled to be tested by the end of the year, Nissan said in a statement late Thursday.

Nissan will provide a fleet of battery powered Nissan Leafs, and work will be carried out at two locations -- Nissan’s Silicon Valley Research Center and NASA's Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif.

The Leaf has built-in electronic hardware that makes building an autonomous vehicle easier.

A Nissan spokesman declined to say how many engineers would be assigned to the project.

The research and development partnership covers technology in four areas:

• Autonomous drive systems, which involves any mechanical part of the vehicle that enables it to accelerate, brake and steer.

• Human-machine interface solutions

• Network-enabled applications, which allows the vehicle to know where it is and safely drive in areas with other vehicles

• Software analysis and verification

Self-driving vehicles are becoming more important to NASA as the agency seeks to further develop technology and create vehicles capable of someday driving on Mars. A Mars rover needs to be able to drive autonomously if it cannot be controlled from earth.

“The work of NASA and Nissan -- with one directed to space and the other directed to earth, is connected by similar challenges," Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said in a statement. "The partnership will accelerate Nissan's development of safe, secure and reliable autonomous drive technology that we will progressively introduce to consumers beginning in 2016 up to 2020."...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150108/OEM06/150109897/nissan-nasa-form-rd-pact-to-develop-deploy-autonomous-vehicles" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Moof]

Count me as a skeptic. I just don't see driving as being that onerous of an activity that I would hand it off to HAL, even if it worked perfectly.

However there are some real limitations to contend with. So far I not seen anyone claim they have dealt with driving in adverse conditions (snow, rain) that largely blind the laser ranging system with natural chaff. Google's cars to date basically ease to a stop and hand back the controls when they get confronted with anything unexpected and routes have to be very heavily pre-mapped much more so than normal street-view. So good luck on any back roads.

http://gizmodo.com/6-simple-things-googles-self-driving-car-still-cant-han-1628040470

So imagine the following scenario. You get an autonomous car, and it works 99% of the time. In fact you go months without touching the steering wheel. However due to the 1% of circumstances where the autonomous system will cut out and hand back control you still have to sit in the driver's seat and mostly pay attention. Now a storm hits and you have to take back over and drive in the hardest conditions of the year having not handled the wheel for months. How good of a driver are you still?

You still can't have the thing valet your kids thanks to that 1% of occurrences where it will stop driving. You can't just let it take over for your aging parents who handed in their driver's licenses. You can't just take a nap, as you could get woken up to a buzzer and have to immediately navigate a storm or construction.

I see it mostly as a solution looking for a problem.

 

[Moof]

I enjoy driving too much to let some computer do it for me. If I can I will always drive my own vehicle. I see these as good for old folks and maybe things like taxis but I don't want one.

The question I would guess you, and many of us, will ultimately have to answer is how much you value driving yourself. When actuaries set insurance rates for human drivers at double, or quadruple - or higher - those for autonomous vehicles, will that affect your decision?

My insurance is not bad now, and I would expect that if autonomous driving were 100% safe its cost would be lower by 4x rather than my cost going up 4x. Today our house spends <$1k per year for 2 drivers and 3 cars (all 4 to 12 years old), which is pretty small beans compared to new car payments. So I say "Meh" to your question.

 

[Deleted member 14724]

I enjoy driving too much to let some computer do it for me. If I can I will always drive my own vehicle. I see these as good for old folks and maybe things like taxis but I don't want one.

The question I would guess you, and many of us, will ultimately have to answer is how much you value driving yourself. When actuaries set insurance rates for human drivers at double, or quadruple - or higher - those for autonomous vehicles, will that affect your decision?

My insurance is not bad now, and I would expect that if autonomous driving were 100% safe its cost would be lower by 4x rather than my cost going up 4x. Today our house spends <$1k per year for 2 drivers and 3 cars (all 4 to 12 years old), which is pretty small beans compared to new car payments. So I say "Meh" to your question.

Honestly, if autonomous vehicles became super reliable, I suspect manual drivers might be literally uninsurable on many public roads, and would probably have to travel on lesser used roads. Manual driving might only be permitted on certain recreational roads or something like that. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, but I don't think it will happen within our lifetimes.

 

[edatoakrun]

WSJ has an interesting interview.

You can jump the WSJ paywall, and access any article using a search, BTW.

Robot Cars and ‘Coordinated Chaos’

Maarten Sierhuis on Teaching Autonomous Cars How to Think


Updated Feb. 9, 2015 11:01 p.m. ET

Before self-driving cars get the green light, a lot of hurdles need to be overcome. To look more closely at some of those challenges and explore how this research may have broader applicability, The Wall Street Journal’s Gabriella Stern turned to Maarten Sierhuis, an expert in artificial intelligence, a former NASA scientist, and now director of the Nissan Research Center in Sunnyvale, Calif. Edited excerpts of their conversation follow...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/robot-cars-and-the-language-of-coordinated-chaos-1423540869?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As of today:

...DR. SIERHUIS: I think at the moment, most reasonable human drivers are still better than autonomous vehicles. And this is not because we can’t get to autonomous vehicles that are better. It depends on what situation you are describing. So, if I show you this video about this intersection in Amsterdam, I could guarantee you that I am better negotiating that intersection than any autonomous vehicle that is right now on the road.

MS. STERN: Because of so many of the contingencies?

DR. SIERHUIS: We call it socially acceptable driving. It has to do with the rules of the road, the culture that you’re in. It depends, place by place. And so if you create very difficult intersections, it’s going to be very hard for an autonomous vehicle today to negotiate that.

But if you’re driving on the highway and you’re driving straight, I would say that the car is probably faster in its reaction time and knowing how to handle situations more safely than we as humans do.

 

[edatoakrun]

Relatively ambitious timeline (IMO) from Ghosn.

I still wonder if "next year" means LEAF gen 2, or Infiniti LE?

...Self-driving cars

Ghosn also looked a little further ahead to the concept of autonomous driving. The first wave of autonomous driving will emerge next year, he said. But the capability will be limited to a car stuck in a traffic jam, which will allow the driver to take their hands off of the wheel and their eyes off the road.

"The technology is ready, we just need regulators to accept," he said.

By 2018, he sees the second wave of autonomous driving emerge, when a car will be able to drive on a highway and change lanes by itself.

The third phase is driving in the city, which he sees coming in 2020. He acknowledged that his company still struggles with it because of the different variables that come with city driving.

Nissan and Renault already have a plan in place, with one high-end car at each brand coming out with the autonomous capabilities every other year.

Lastly, there is the complete driverless car, which Ghosn said he sees in 10 years or more. But there remains cyber-security issues to deal with before that becomes a reality.

http://www.cnet.com/news/nissan-ceo-on-possible-apple-car-its-obviously-good-news/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Deleted member 14724]

Relatively ambitious timeline (IMO) from Ghosn.

To put it mildly. We might see some of this in Europe, but in the USA? No way. Both liability concerns and the concerns of municipalities about potentially devastating losses from traffic violations, and concerns over lawsuits for probable cause stops will put a lot of this stuff in legal tarpits for years.

 

[edatoakrun]

With every technological advance, there are losers, who do not always lose gracefully.

I wonder if the car collision industry will put up the same resistance to reality that the cigarette and fossil fuel industries did, and begin to fund junk science showing how unsafe autonomous vehicles are?

Self-driving cars have crossed an important milestone on the road to reality: The securities filing.

Three insurance suppliers and an auto parts maker have warned in their most recent annual reports that driverless cars and the technology behind them could one day disrupt the way they do business.

The investor warnings aren’t meant to spell out an imminent threat. But their inclusion in the catch all “Risk Factors” section of corporate filings indicates that driverless cars are now close enough to reality that companies feel they need to flag the risks to their investors.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. , an Ohio-based insurer generating nearly a quarter of its premiums from commercial and consumer auto policies, warned in the annual report it filed Friday that its forecasts could be flawed because of, among other things, “Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products.”...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-driverless-car-upend-insurance-1425428891" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[timhebb]

WSJ has an interesting interview.

...DR. SIERHUIS: I think at the moment, most reasonable human drivers are still better than autonomous vehicles. And this is not because we can’t get to autonomous vehicles that are better. It depends on what situation you are describing. So, if I show you this video about this intersection in Amsterdam, I could guarantee you that I am better negotiating that intersection than any autonomous vehicle that is right now on the road.

MS. STERN: Because of so many of the contingencies?

DR. SIERHUIS: We call it socially acceptable driving. It has to do with the rules of the road, the culture that you’re in. It depends, place by place. And so if you create very difficult intersections, it’s going to be very hard for an autonomous vehicle today to negotiate that.

But if you’re driving on the highway and you’re driving straight, I would say that the car is probably faster in its reaction time and knowing how to handle situations more safely than we as humans do.

Dr. Sierhuis' assumptions are probably true so long as traffic consists of mixed human-driven and autonomous vehicles; it would be very difficult to program computers to recognize and respond to the myriad subtle signals human drivers generate and respond to in dense traffic: the slight accelerations and hesitations, tentative nudges of the vehicle, glances, nods and gestures, etc.

But human drivers would be equally left in the dust when autonomous vehicles rule the streets and communicate silently, invisibly and instantly with each other to navigate at high speeds in close formation, like flocks of birds or schools of fish, swiftly, efficiently and elegantly. A human driver would just cramp their style and impede the flow of traffic, only slightly less so than if his car were disabled altogether in the middle of the 405 freeway. He might as well have a horse and buggy at the Indy 500. It would be time for humans to put away the driving gloves.

 

[edatoakrun]

Nissan beginning to introduce more driver aids leading toward autonomous capabilities.

IMO, we should expect both (and more) in gen 2 LEAF:

The 2015 Nissan Murano has a surprise system that many may not be aware of: Nissan's new Driver Attention Alert program meant to let drivers know when their attention is not on the road.

One of the leading causes of preventable automotive accidents is distracted driving. Although most of us think of "distracted driving" as using our mobile phones while we drive, that type of distraction accounts for only a small percentage of the overall distracted driving-caused accidents. Things like drowsy driving, daydreaming, looking away from the road (changing radio stations, taking care of kids in the back seat, etc), etc. are more common causes. According to AAA, one out of five fatal crashes involve drowsy driving, for example, in part because drowsy driving more often happens over longer distances and those longer distances are usually covered at high speeds on freeways and highways where fatalities are more likely.

To combat drowsy driving in particular, many aftermarket items have been created...

Along these lines, Nissan has created a new safety feature for its vehicles. Now available in the 2015 Nissan Murano and soon to be available in the upcoming 2016 Nissan Maxima, the Driver Attention Alert system monitors driver behavior to learn how the driver normally pays attention and then uses data collected by the vehicle to determine if the driver is becoming drowsy or inattentive, sounding an alert when it seems so...

http://www.torquenews.com/1080/nissan-details-new-driver-attention-alert-system-now-available-2015-murano-2016-maxima" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


DK reports (and throws in a few jibes at Tesla) Nissan makes self driving tech a standard feature across all segments...in Japan

Nissan makes self driving tech a standard feature across all segments

...Large OEMs roll out self-driving features in their mass market cars, while Tesla is still working on the software that one day will do the same for its ballyhooed Model S. “We will make automatic braking a standard feature on all volume-selling models in Japan, by the end of fall of 2015,” Nissan’s Executive Vice President Takao Katagiri said today during a launch event for the hybrid version of the X-Trail compact SUV in Oppama near Yokohama. At Nissan, you get the tech for free, with purchase of a new car.

The system uses a laser and a camera to measure the distance to the car ahead. If the car gets too close, an alarm sounds. If no action is taken, the car will brake itself. Last week, Toyota announced a similar system for its bread and butter Corolla.

“Emergency braking and other pre-crash safety features – once found only in high-end models – are growing in importance for consumers in developed markets, making them a hot new battleground for automakers,” writes Chang-Ran Kim at Reuters, and right she is, as usual. These systems have been available for years in high-end cars (except the Model S), now they filter down through all segments. At Nissan, the sensor package even will be available in its Dayz Kei car.

Sensor technology, automatic braking, and automatic steering are key elements in the quest for self-driving cars. “In fiscal 2016, we are going to launch vehicles equipped with autonomous driving technologies in Japan,” Katagiri said today, underscoring similar announcements made by Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn a few days ago. Nissan is at the forefront of research into self-driving cars, and it has demonstrated self-driving cars for years, even with Japan’s Prime Minister Abe in the car. The bold step is to release that technology from the lab, and to make it commercially available...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/04/nissan-makes-self-driving-tech-standard-feature-across-segments/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;