2016 Leaf or wait for the 2017?

[arnis]

I live in a cold climate (Cleveland) with a relatively long commute (65 miles both ways, mostly highway) which is why I haven't bought a Leaf (yet!), been waiting on a range I feel more comfortable with due to the harsh winters we typically get here. Anyways, been contemplating the 2016 model; I'm a Prius owner and do a pretty good job of hypermiling (65 mpg summer, 55 mpg winter, average 60 mpg year round, keep speeds at 55 MPH on highways, don't use the heat in the winter) so just wondering if anyone else is in the same predicament and believe that the 2016 is good enough or should wait for the 2017. I am looking to keep my Leaf for ten years, would like the battery to get me by for that long or close to it and allow me to still make my daily commute in the winter without recharging. What are your thoughts?

Is this correct?
If so then you can do your 65 mile daily trip even without destination charging today.
You need 30kWh battery and heat pump (even if you thing you don't need heat).

65 miles is something like 105km. You can do exactly that distance (winter) with 24kWh Leaf BUT...!!!
But it will be really hard and frustrating IF you can't reliably charge at destination (like 98%+ reliability).
It will also torture battery. But with 30kWh Leaf you can do it easily. With clean windows and bad weather.
22C average in summer is ideal for Leaf battery. It will last a long time. You will do the trip even in 2019.

So take the Leaf today. 30kWh, rear camera (no need for round view), seat/steering heating (really, you want them!)
and HEAT PUMP. Non-leather and non-cloth interior is excellent, no need for cheap soft leather. Bose system
is cool but it is often bundled with priciest model. LED headlights are not better than halogen. Just the color.
If you have another vehicle to use then ChaDeMo is optional but if you will have only Leaf and there are ChaDeMo
stations around this port is a MUST!

 

[tkdbrusco]

I would not lease an EV at all right now unless it was a 24 month lease, or it was a second car or some other limited circumstance. Especially in the OPs case since he wants to keep it for 5+ years. The reason being is that if you lock into a lease of 30 mo+ you are going to be stuck in that lease while the $7500 federal credits expire for most major manufacturers. If you want to be able to take advantage of the full tax credit on the next wave of 200+ mi range vehicles, Bolt, Model 3, Leaf 2, etc... You'll need to be ready to buy by early 2018 at the latest. A 3 year lease right now locks you up until early 2019. There's no way that Tesla or Chevy still have production numbers below 200K cars at that point. Maybe Nissan will, but not likely there either.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I would not lease an EV at all right now unless it was a 24 month lease, or it was a second car or some other limited circumstance. Especially in the OPs case since he wants to keep it for 5+ years. The reason being is that if you lock into a lease of 30 mo+ you are going to be stuck in that lease while the $7500 federal credits expire for most major manufacturers

The way that leases are structured right now, leasing a 30kwh leaf with the intention of buying it later makes much more sense than leasing as a stopgap. You are going to pay for all that depreciation, so you may as well buy the reasonably-priced car when the lease ends, for about $11k.

 

[GRA]

The OP has said that he wants to keep the car for 10 years. Only a 200 mile EPA car will (likely) allow you to do that 65 mile, year-round mostly freeway commute for that length of time. A 30kWh 107 mile EPA LEAF will have, at battery EoL (70% of original usable capacity), 74.9 miles EPA range. That's with no heat/defrost, no allowance for headwinds, dense air, wet/snowy/icy roads or elevation gain, and no reserve.

The odds of a 30kWh pack lasting 10 years under the usage the OP requires are just about zilch, based on our current knowledge. By comparison, a 200 mile EPA car will have 140 miles EPA range at battery EoL, allowing more than enough excess to allow for all the above factors, and will be cycling over a much narrower SoC range over its lifetime, making it far more likely to last 10 years to EoL. A car with 150 miles EPA (105 miles EoL) might work too, with narrower margins.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Aside from the fact that you just waved off a 75 mile estimated "EOL" range for a 65 mile commute (and I think the EPA includes some climate control usage in that), I'll just note that I'm talking about what makes financial sense. Paying all the depreciation while leasing on a car that depreciates rapidly is not good financial sense unless you also plan to buy the car. If keeping a car for 10 years and having a large range reserve at 10 years is vital, then a CPO Tesla is probably the best option in 2016.

 

[rcm4453]

$288/month with only $500 down isn't bad at all. Worked out a lot better then if I purchased since I don't have enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.

Is that for an S, a Base SV (no Premium Package) or an SV with premium? What's the residual? How long is the lease term? The payment isn't outstanding, but the low down payment is.

It was for an SV (no premium package). Wouldn't have been much more for the premium package but I wanted the grey interior. The SVs with premium all had the black interior. I could have ordered one with premium plus grey interior but didn't want to wait. My only "must haves" were heated seats, steering wheel, navigation, back-up camera, 30kwh battery, heat pump and grey interior. The SV I bought had all of them, the bose and around view camera would have just been a bonus but not a requirement and definitely not worth waiting for. I believe the residual is $12k and lease term is 3-years 12k miles/year. I know I could have done better if I waited until the end of the year but I have very little patience.

 

[smkettner]

2017 with maximum battery option.
No extra BS.

 

[DanCar]

... I am looking to keep my Leaf for ten years, would like the battery to get me by for that long or close to it and allow me to still make my daily commute in the winter without recharging. What are your thoughts?

There have been great deals on leases so I wouldn't discount that option if the deal lease shows up again. Ecars have been depreciating rapidly, so if buying new you are going to take a big hit financially. I would only lease and take advantage of the rapidly improving technology and price drop cycle.

 

[LeftieBiker]

It was for an SV (no premium package). Wouldn't have been much more for the premium package but I wanted the grey interior. The SVs with premium all had the black interior. I could have ordered one with premium plus grey interior but didn't want to wait. My only "must haves" were heated seats, steering wheel, navigation, back-up camera, 30kwh battery, heat pump and grey interior. The SV I bought had all of them, the bose and around view camera would have just been a bonus but not a requirement and definitely not worth waiting for. I believe the residual is $12k and lease term is 3-years 12k miles/year. I know I could have done better if I waited until the end of the year but I have very little patience.

People seem to be getting fairly good deals on the Base SV, as Nissan dealers seem to have finally learned that those tend to sell last if not discounted. I need an SV with Premium, though, as I do a lot of parking, and at my advancing age the front and side cameras have become necessary for me. (My housemate just damaged her PIP's front bumper to the tune of about $500 because of the lack of a front camera.)

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

 

[rcm4453]

Will you get charged for going over your lease miliage if you buy the car at the end of the lease?

 

[LeftieBiker]

Will you get charged for going over your lease miliage if you buy the car at the end of the lease?

No, if you buy the car it's as if you owned it all along. There is no charge other than the $395 (IIRC) buyout fee.

 

[GregH]

I'd go for it! Heck even my 10bar 18kWh (formerly 24) can still make 65 miles at moderate (60-65mph) speeds.. Although that's here in temperate SoCal, as others have pointed out cold and rain can really take a toll. But thanks to the capacity warranty you have at least 70% of 30kWh at your disposal. And yes, the heated steering wheel is the greatest invention since cup holders!

 

[arnis]

18kWh is not enough for 65 miles at 60mph in ideal condition. 57mph max.
Theoretically if tires are like donuts then maybe.

 

[GRA]

Aside from the fact that you just waved off a 75 mile estimated "EOL" range for a 65 mile commute (and I think the EPA includes some climate control usage in that), I'll just note that I'm talking about what makes financial sense. Paying all the depreciation while leasing on a car that depreciates rapidly is not good financial sense unless you also plan to buy the car. If keeping a car for 10 years and having a large range reserve at 10 years is vital, then a CPO Tesla is probably the best option in 2016.

Of course I waved off a 75 mile EoL range. The OP stated he lived in Cleveland, and needed to do a mostly freeway commute year round. At a constant 65 mph in ideal conditions, Tony Williams' chart shows 75 miles of range (slightly conservative) when new [i.e., less than the 84 mile EPA range]. Now take 70% of that [just to be clear, I realize that the 30kWh will go farther, my point being that it will be less than the 107 mile EPA range]. And have you had a look at Cleveland's climate, especially in winter?

Personally, I want a minimum reserve of the greater of 10 miles or 10% rounded up to the nearest multiple of 5 miles, in the prevailing conditions, and would prefer more from the standpoint of battery longevity; other people may settle for less, but routinely taking a battery down that low isn't good for it. Any deviation from the straight commute for an errand, even in the near ideal conditions of the EPA test regime, and the OP will be worrying about being stranded. In winter, they can forget about using the heater/defroster.

OTOH, on a car with 200 mile EPA range when new, even if its necessary to keep the battery until its degraded to 50% instead of 70%, you'd still have 100 miles of EPA range, enough to easily do the commute in winter with a reserve. 150 miles EPA when new would allow the commute down to 60 or 65% of original capacity, but that's basically the level that people have been reaching in 5 years or less with 24kWh LEAFs, so it's not at all certain that a 150 mile car could go for twice as long in Cleveland's climate.

[Edited to clarify a few points]

 

[DanCar]

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

Good point. Thanks.

 

[kikngas]

I live in MN, and would just point out that many of the folks that basically said "no problem! got for it" live in a warmer climate than either of us. They have never driven in a storm that requires constant attention to the windshield, when your feet are freezing, and you are trying to drive through slush and wind, with a sparse infrastructure available. You'll want to use the car for more than the commute.

I would also point out that I purchased my LEAF because I also plan to keep it until it falls apart, and so the overall cost of purchase is less (plus they had 1.9% financing and bonus rebate). But I now wish I had leased. Had I leased, I could have made 24 monthly payments, and then bought it for LESS than the planned residual. Nissan reduced the buy-out prices by more than the original cost difference. I also could have stepped in to a new 2017 model if I wanted, and hope to play the depreciation game again. So long as there is a better tech. on the horizon, current values will drop. With battery and charging technologies progressing, this condition should pretty much perpetuate for the 10 year timeframe.

 

[WetEV]

150 miles EPA when new would allow the commute down to 60 or 65% of original capacity, but that's basically the level that people have been reaching in 5 years or less with 24kWh LEAFs, so it's not at all certain that a 150 mile car could go for twice as long in Cleveland's climate.

People in hot climates have had that kind of loss, but not in Cleveland's climate (or similar climates). Cleveland isn't Arizona, or hot parts of California.

 

[Stanton]

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

Finally someone with some common sense!
If you're going to keep any car for 10 years, isn't it obvious you should buy it? And if you have to lease to afford it, doesn't that mean you can't afford it? We can talk about all the other "will he have enough range" stuff 'till the cows come home.

 

[smkettner]

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

Finally someone with some common sense!
If you're going to keep any car for 10 years, isn't it obvious you should buy it? And if you have to lease to afford it, doesn't that mean you can't afford it? We can talk about all the other "will he have enough range" stuff 'till the cows come home.

Leasing might give you the full Federal credit vs OP's personal tax situation.

Besides this is a 2016 vs 2017 range issue more than lease vs buy question.