2014 Sep Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2881 ,Total 10538

[Jay]

Nissan LEAF US Sales Continue To Surge In September
http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-us-sales-september-2014/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nice quote in your article:

“Nissan LEAF owners have turned into some of our best marketers, and they jump at any opportunity to share their enthusiasm with friends and family,” said Toby Perry, director, Nissan EV Marketing.

“Take National Drive Electric Week—a grassroots celebration of all things EV and the perfect platform for LEAF owners to showcase the benefits of going electric. After celebrating with EV owners in more than 130 cities across the country, we saw a significant increase in LEAF showroom visits with midweek traffic just as heavy as what we see on the weekends.”

Is Toby Perry related to Mark Perry by any chance?

Heeh, that was one of the first questions when he came on...and no he is not related, (=

 

[GRA]

Not related to sales per se, but most months I track the number and type of PEVs I see just while wandering around (not counting those that are at/within 1 block of a charging station unless I know that they aren't about to enter or have just left it, as that skews the data). Just for giggles here's the numbers for September (note that the numbers may be a little off either way, as I see so many now that I may get confused and mis-remember whether I saw it that day or the day before):

LEAF 65
PiP 57
Volt 49
500e 19
C-Max E 15
Fus. E 10
Mod. S 8
Focus 4

Spark 1
Smart 1
Fit 1
Accord PHEV 1*
i3 1*

*Only ones I've ever seen. There's at least one local RAV4 EV 2nd gen., and I've also seen a 1st gen. driving around, but didn't see either this month. Still haven't seen a B-class, but that's not surprising given the small sales to date and how long it took me to see my first i3 despite much higher sales so far.

 

[lorenfb]

Yes, we know this! So now for 9/14 Insideevs reports exactly the worldwide run rate number required for
2014 "guidance" for JUST the US? We know based on Q1 & Q2 filings that worldwide YTD sales were 15K.
Reports indicate China Q3 total was about 2K, so where's the rest?

I don't even know what you are trying to say.

Try reading it very slowly!
In more basic terms for some; It looks like someone 'pulled' the Tesla number from "you-know-where".

 

[Zythryn]

Try reading it very slowly!
In more basic terms for some; It looks like someone 'pulled' the Tesla number from "you-know-where".

As Tesla doesn't report monthly sales those third party numbers are always a guess.
In August Tesla shut down for a time to expand capacity.
Prior to adding a second line they were producing 800 a week. If the second line ramped up really fast, or if they focused on US sales rather than sending half overseas, or a combination, they could easily hit that.

I always take that guess with a pound of salt though. They usually guess pretty low, in this case perhaps they are high. We will have a better idea in a month when TESLA reports on the 3rd quarter results.

 

[jelloslug]

Yes, we know this! So now for 9/14 Insideevs reports exactly the worldwide run rate number required for
2014 "guidance" for JUST the US? We know based on Q1 & Q2 filings that worldwide YTD sales were 15K.
Reports indicate China Q3 total was about 2K, so where's the rest?

I don't even know what you are trying to say.

Try reading it very slowly!
In more basic terms for some; It looks like someone 'pulled' the Tesla number from "you-know-where".

Your trying to imply something that you have no proof of.

 

[evnow]

Try reading it very slowly!
In more basic terms for some; It looks like someone 'pulled' the Tesla number from "you-know-where".

If you follow TMC, you will see a very large effort to deliver as many as possible in the US last month. Insideevs is not claiming this is "the truth" or anything like that. They clearly mention this as an estimate.

Do you have a number ? How did you arrive at it ?

 

[edatoakrun]

I'm encouraged that LEAF sales are doing so well, considering I seem to read or hear another news story about "bargain" gas prices a few times each day.

As to actual Tesla sales last month:

...Do you have a number ? How did you arrive at it ?

1,300, according to:

The HybridCars.com monthly sales dashboard is a collaboration of HybridCars.com and Baum & Associates, a Michigan-based market research firm focusing on automotive issues including the hybrid and electric vehicle market....

http://www.hybridcars.com/september-2014-dashboard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No idea myself whether 2,500 or 1,300 is closer to actual, since neither source has (AFAIK) documented the methodology behind their guess/estimate.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

a bit surprised that LEAF sales were as low as they were....not good. never gonna make my 32,000 estimate at this rate

 

[evnow]

No idea myself whether 2,500 or 1,300 is closer to actual, since neither source has (AFAIK) documented the methodology behind their guess/estimate.

Autotrader (?) estimates 1600.

I tend to believe a plugin specialist like Jay over non-EV guys.

I don't know how Jay estimates - but TMC has a lot of delivery information. We can estimate using the info people post about taking delivery.

Tesla to increase deliveries to the max possible by quarter end, has adopted some techniques, that explain the sudden increase in US sales at quarter end.
- Send cars manufactured in the first 2 months to EU & China, which have a big shipping time
- Send most cars in the last month to US
- Send most cars in the last few days near SF !

How do they manage to send the cars that way ? They schedule manufacture of the cars based on how they want to deliver.

 

[evnow]

Numbers for September.

 

[smkettner]

Looks like PHEVs are headed for a slump. EVs are in record territory.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Looks like PHEVs are headed for a slump. EVs are in record territory.

yep. despite starting slowly, looks like EVs will have more than half the pie very soon

 

[evnow]

Looks like PHEVs are headed for a slump. EVs are in record territory.

One month doesn't make a trend. I think every quarter end we'll see EVs go up because of more Tesla deliveries. Not sure why Energis went down this month. May be the incentives went down ?

 

[GRA]

Looks like PHEVs are headed for a slump. EVs are in record territory.

One month doesn't make a trend. I think every quarter end we'll see EVs go up because of more Tesla deliveries. Not sure why Energis went down this month. May be the incentives went down ?

It was suggested elsewhere that it's probably due to lower gas prices, which would make sense. HEV sales always followed gas prices too. The difference in price between a PHEV and HEV/ICE appears less justifiable when gas prices drop. There may also be some delayed effect from the recent second downgrading of the mpg and AER numbers.

Edit:

"Op Ed: Falling Gas Prices vs Falling Battery Prices – Who Wins?"

http://insideevs.com/falling-gas-prices-vs-falling-battery-prices-wins/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[lorenfb]

Another view of Tesla sales for 9/2014;

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for-all-the-tesla-hoopla-nissans-leaf-outsells-it-2014-10-03

Could Tesla's recent "10/9/14 announcement" be an attempt to minimize the above?

 

[Zythryn]

Another view of Tesla sales for 9/2014;

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for-all-the-tesla-hoopla-nissans-leaf-outsells-it-2014-10-03

Could Tesla's recent "10/9/14 announcement" be an attempt to minimize the above?

I don't think Tesla really cares what the opinion is of that blogger. Tesla is more focused on sales in general then on sales in the United States.
They are also production constrained and have a product three times the cost of a Leaf.
Elon is more likely hoping that Nissan continues to outsell the Tesla.

 

[lorenfb]

"I don't think Tesla really cares what the opinion is of that blogger. Tesla is more focused on sales in general then on seals in the United States."

Really? And not be concerned about their major market which may be indicative of an overall market
trend? And they are not production limited, i.e. capacity was increased over the summer.

The above response sounds like the typical response one gets over on the Tesla Forum when
one posts an issue contrary to the Tesla 'belief system'.

 

[evnow]

Another view of Tesla sales for 9/2014;

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for-all-the-tesla-hoopla-nissans-leaf-outsells-it-2014-10-03

Could Tesla's recent "10/9/14 announcement" be an attempt to minimize the above?

Really, MarketWatch is surprised a car that costs less than half sells more ?

Leaf has been outselling Model S for 16 months. Why should Tesla suddenly try to divert attention from it ?

 

[Zythryn]

...

Really? And not be concerned about their major market which may be indicative of an overall market
trend? And they are not production limited, i.e. capacity was increased over the summer.

The above response sounds like the typical response one gets over on the Tesla Forum when
one posts an issue contrary to the Tesla 'belief system'.

You are the one relying on a "belief system". Tesla continues to grow its sales worldwide.
They have increased production capability and they still have more demand than they can produce, so yes, they are still production constrained.

 

[lorenfb]

Another view of Tesla sales for 9/2014;

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for-all-the-tesla-hoopla-nissans-leaf-outsells-it-2014-10-03

Could Tesla's recent "10/9/14 announcement" be an attempt to minimize the above?

Really, MarketWatch is surprised a car that costs less than half sells more ?

Leaf has been outselling Model S for 16 months. Why should Tesla suddenly try to divert attention from it ?

My point was that "the announcement" is an attempt to possibly counter a potential downturn in Tesla U.S.
sales and not about Nissan.