2013 Dec Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2529, Volt 2392

[DaveinOlyWA]

^^^
Yep, problem (as the above and everywhere else states) is that Tesla doesn't report their monthly figures. They only disclose the # of units delivered in their quarterly financials, which can have significant lag.

I wonder what the heck happened w/the Rav4 EV? Bad incentives now? Toyota's actions to strongly discourage out of state sales == huge drop?

Ya, hampering out of state sales probably removed more than half the market. There was interest here for them

 

[Zythryn]

Yupe. Just got in touch with smart, they sold a fair number again this month - 167. I think of all the EVs out this year, they are the most surprising...only Nissan sold more pure EVs in the 2nd half - smart sold 750...and only available regionally. Also, we picked up Toyota numbers too - RAV4 EV 28

uhh...what about Tesla?

See: http://insideevs.com/december-2013-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think the point was that we know that Tesla sold more than 750 cars in the third quarter alone.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

How many 2013 LEAFs remain?

 

[Berlino]

How many 2013 LEAFs remain?

cars.com is one source for an approximate number.


http://www.cars.com/for-sale/search...SEARCH_BY_URL&yrNm=2013&mkNm=Nissan&rd=100000


btw, there are STILL people waiting for LEAFs in Canada who put down deposits in September. If they want to sell those 2013s, they just need to refit them with DRLs and ship them North.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

How many 2013 LEAFs remain?

cars.com is one source for an approximate number.


http://www.cars.com/for-sale/search...SEARCH_BY_URL&yrNm=2013&mkNm=Nissan&rd=100000


btw, there are STILL people waiting for LEAFs in Canada who put down deposits in September. If they want to sell those 2013s, they just need to refit them with DRLs and ship them North.

That says 2956. So about a month's worth. Then the 2014's in February, so they pegged it about right.

Are we tracking Canadian sales separately?

 

[Berlino]

Are we tracking Canadian sales separately?

insideevs tracks Canada. However, you can know in advance, because some dealers will tell you exactly how few LEAFs are being allotted to Canada.


For example, the 30 sales in October in November correspond to what I learned in advance.

 

[Jay]

Looks like we'll be just shy of 100k for the year, even if Fords come in at record numbers - 3k or so short.

Yupe.

Just got in touch with smart, they sold a fair number again this month - 167. I think of all the EVs out this year, they are the most surprising...only Nissan sold more pure EVs in the 2nd half - smart sold 750...and only available regionally.

Also, we picked up Toyota numbers too - RAV4 EV 28

uhh...what about Tesla?

...just my slip up there, after Nissan and Tesla of course, I was just thinking about the fringe players and somehow let the Model S slip by, lol

And yes, we do track Canada as well: 28 LEAFs sold in December, 470 for the year. 2014s are expected in early February at dealers. For 2013 cumulative, it went Volt (931), Model S (610 +/- 20), then the LEAF at 470

http://insideevs.com/canada-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-december-2013-chevy-volt-1-for-month-and-for-all-of-2013/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Jay]

Oh yeah, guess I should have rounded out the list as Ford as gotten around to putting out the numbers


Ford C-Max Energi: 827
Ford Fusion Energi: 791
Ford Focus EV: 158

Also, Porsche sold 47 Panamera S-E Hybrids

...think that about does it until next month, (=

 

[adric22]

Ford C-Max Energi: 827
Ford Fusion Energi: 791
Ford Focus EV: 158

I guess that is a healthy amount considering where Ford is in the game right now. Down from last month (except the Focus) but still a good number. I bet Ford could sell a lot more of these Energi models if they actually tried.

 

[TRONZ]

Numbers look good! I am looking forward to the i3 entry next year. Shaping up to be a very interesting three way battle between Nissan, Tesla and BMW for 2014.

 

[edatoakrun]

...Sales of the battery-powered Leaf jumped 130 percent last year to 22,610 vehicles, aided by 2,529 deliveries in December, the most ever in a single month for the Yokohama, Japan-based company. That figure should keep rising, Ghosn said in a CNBC interview yesterday.

“We are now on a trend of 3,000 cars a month in the U.S., which is about 36,000 cars” a year, Ghosn said. “The next step is moving up to 4,000 a month,” he said, without setting a target date...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/nissan-s-ghosn-wants-to-double-u-s-leaf-sales-after-2013-surge.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I saw the interview, but (unfortunately) CNBC does not seem to have posted the complete interview, with CG's comments on future USA LEAF production including the quotes above, which he made after his comments on the 2020 Nissan autonomous vehicle below:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000233496&play=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Finally got the time to put it together. Had some differences with insideevs.com totals, which we sorted out.

When I get some time - I'll post a few more analysis graphs.

 

[CarZin]

While I appreciate Gshon's optimism, the Leaf nor the Volt are trending at 3,000 cars a month. The Volt is the only electric vehicle that has managed a 3k+ month, and with the start of a new year, my bet is a huge drop in sales (like we experience at the beginning of every year), and I doubt the Leaf or the Volt manage to get over 2k next month. Probably both closer to 1,500-1850.

I would be thrilled if either the Leaf or Volt gets over 30,000 cars next year, but I think it will be very tough given how competitive the marketplace has gotten.

 

[evnow]

While I appreciate Gshon's optimism, the Leaf nor the Volt are trending at 3,000 cars a month.

Well, trend can be deceptive - if you see Leaf's numbers from the beginning of last year, obviously Leaf didn't look like it would sell 20,000 this year.

I think 30k is achievable - and even 5k per month is not difficult once Nissan comes with more range options.

 

[KJD]

While I appreciate Gshon's optimism, the Leaf nor the Volt are trending at 3,000 cars a month.

Well, trend can be deceptive - if you see Leaf's numbers from the beginning of last year, obviously Leaf didn't look like it would sell 20,000 this year.
I think 30k is achievable - and even 5k per month is not difficult once Nissan comes with more range options.

I would agree that the LEAF does need more range options.

The other thing is this, If Nissan was really serious about selling more LEAF this year they should have cut the starting price of the car. Instead they raised the price a small amount. Very stupid move Nissan.

 

[DanCar]

...Instead they raised the price a small amount...

Mostly irrelevant as most people lease and excellent lease deal remains.

 

[evnow]

The other thing is this, If Nissan was really serious about selling more LEAF this year they should have cut the starting price of the car. Instead they raised the price a small amount. Very stupid move Nissan.

Nobody cares about $180 increase - esp. given extra equipment. Besides, Nissan has been supply constrained throughout the year. So, we don't know the real demand for Leaf at this price.

Getting back to what Ghosn said - this is how to interpret it.

Internally Ghosn has set the target at 30k per year. This is what the Leaf team would be judged against, so the product team will try their best to sell 30k Leafs however they can. If they don't, then the product manager for Leaf wouldn't get his bonus or may be lose his job.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

While I appreciate Gshon's optimism, the Leaf nor the Volt are trending at 3,000 cars a month. The Volt is the only electric vehicle that has managed a 3k+ month, and with the start of a new year, my bet is a huge drop in sales (like we experience at the beginning of every year), and I doubt the Leaf or the Volt manage to get over 2k next month. Probably both closer to 1,500-1850.

I would be thrilled if either the Leaf or Volt gets over 30,000 cars next year, but I think it will be very tough given how competitive the marketplace has gotten.

i think your thoughts are missing one key component and that is the size of the market. your comment that sales are going to be tough because of more competition is valid the regular car market because its market size is relatively static, but the market size for EVs is not.

the market is growing every day and I think that LEAF sales would have been several thousand units higher had there been a reasonable supply of LEAFs to sell. That has not been the case in many areas of the country. Nissan ratcheting up production should help to boost sales.

when a model struggles to maintain a few weeks of inventory on car lots nationwide all year long. the demand is almost never the problem

 

[scottf200]

nissan-leaf-sales-in-atlanta-nearly-1000-units-sold-in-december
http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-in-atlanta-nearly-1000-units-sold-in-december/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, let’s say that sales in Atlanta were between 901 and 999. That means that more than one-third of all the LEAFs sold in the US in December were sold in one US city – Atlanta.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Internally Ghosn has set the target at 30k per year. This is what the Leaf team would be judged against, so the product team will try their best to sell 30k Leafs however they can. If they don't, then the product manager for Leaf wouldn't get his bonus or may be lose his job.

+1 you nailed it, that's exactly how it works. So, no surprise that they move limited production to places with incentives like Atlanta and CA where they can sell more and faster. If a few Northeast states offered incentives 40k would be doable.