2012 Leaf predictions

[Boomer23]

Yep, Gary, I knew it was a mistake. I was commenting that the average man in the street can easily be mislead by claims about EVs, misunderstanding even the most basic claims like these.

Phil

 

[prberg]

My guess is that the 2012 Leaf will be pretty much the same as the 2011. Nissan might upgrade the charger to match Ford's. I bet we won't see any real changes till 2013 or 2014. I could see some software improvements to the interface, etc. But I doubt there will be much different with model year 2012.

I am basing some of my thoughts on the fact that Toyota didn't change the first Prius model for at least 3 or 4 years. I could see some small software changes, color options, or maybe even a little efficiency improvement, but I doubt any of these bigger changes (new battery, body changes, etc) will happen for at least a few years.

-Peter

 

[planet4ever]

My guess is that the 2012 Leaf will be pretty much the same as the 2011. Nissan might upgrade the charger to match Ford's. I bet we won't see any real changes till 2013 or 2014. I could see some software improvements to the interface, etc. But I doubt there will be much different with model year 2012.

What are you trying to do? Pour ice water on everyone who lives where it is cold? It seems to me the one thing sure to be in the 2012 model is the cold weather package, and you didn't mention that. Personally, I expect 2012 to have the same charger as 2011. I do think there may be some software tweaks affecting the display panels and CarWings.

Ray

 

[Herm]

Instead of changing the internal charger to 6.6kw, Nissan should sell a true external charger that uses the L3 port and hangs on the wall of your garage.. perhaps it could use 240V at 60Amps, adjustable so you can set the precise % of charge and the charging rate.

This is an extra profit stream for Nissan, it also keeps the costs down for those that dont need it.

 

[kmp647]

nothing is sure, but

After seeing cars used in the Leaf tour in Japan equipped with heated seats and steering wheel, and knowing how important comfort and heat is , the cold weather pack seems a sure bet for 2012

on the Japan site the cold pack is an addtional 33,600 yen or about $400 usd


I know 1 thing ordering a car "late summer" nets you the next model year
factories in Japan usually start producing the new model year car in september, after a short break in august to adjust the line.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

its obvious to me that

1) Ford is playing catchup

2) will Taylor the car based on reactions to the Volt and Leaf

3) will priced about the same at the Leaf

i hope to have some more info on the Focus soon

 

[evnow]

3) will priced about the same at the Leaf

Unlikely. Probably same lease of $349 - but not the msrp.

BTW, there is a small possibility of them doing that - since their production volume is limited, their losses would be somehwat limited too. Still, a $5K loss per car translates to $100 Million assuming 20K production per year.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

3) will priced about the same at the Leaf

Unlikely. Probably same lease of $349 - but not the msrp.

BTW, there is a small possibility of them doing that - since their production volume is limited, their losses would be somehwat limited too. Still, a $5K loss per car translates to $100 Million assuming 20K production per year.

retrofiting an existing car is cheap compared to a whole new design. Ford no doubt, did it to reduce cost and time to market. i am sure they did it to match Nissan pricing. they are well aware of the biggest detriment to the Volt and that is the price

 

[Sasparilla]

I know 1 thing ordering a car "late summer" nets you the next model year
factories in Japan usually start producing the new model year car in september, after a short break in august to adjust the line.

This is a great piece of information and something I was wondering about. Thanks for putting this up. Since I'm in IL, it seems likely it'll be a 2012 at the earliest (which is just fine with me since I have to wait so long anyways). Hoping for an upgraded Level 2 charger, cold weather and leather options to be added for 2012.

retrofiting an existing car is cheap compared to a whole new design. Ford no doubt, did it to reduce cost and time to market. i am sure they did it to match Nissan pricing. they are well aware of the biggest detriment to the Volt and that is the price

Good comments on the cost aspect of retrofitting an existing design, but there's more to this story with Ford than most people know.

Back in 2008, Ford didn't have an internal EV program (they supposedly let go of most of their EV program folks just before the crash in 2008 when they threw anything they absolutely didn't need to survive over the side) and were looking at GM & Nissan pushing ahead on the EV front. I was wondering if they were going to have to rebuy Think to get an EV (like they did back in the 90's to get an EV for CA), but fortunately for them one of their far sighted suppliers (Magna), on its own (amazing foresight for a supplier), developed a "drop it in and go" EV program they were offering to the automakers. They developed it on a Ford Focus they purchased, using it as a benchmark small vehicle (Magna intended to sell this to more than one manufacturer), but pitched it to Ford first. This is also why the inverter is sitting up in the back (since that Magna design is easily transplantable to different small vehicles - as opposed to making it custom fit under the Focus's hood, which Ford would have probably done if they had the time to design it).

Ford, without an EV program, looked at this ready to go EV offering and ran with it (very smart on their part considering where they were at on EV front at the time and apparently got Magna not to offer it to anyone else, smart on their part as well).

Some of the downsides of this is the generic design having the inverter in the trunk (because it would fit in most vehicles) and the EV components are designed and coming from Magna (not manufactured in house at Ford) so they haven't been talking about large production numbers.

It'll be interesting to see what the follow on Focus Electric will look like since that will truly be a Ford designed EV.

Here's a link to an article about the Magna origin of the Focus Electric:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/autos/ford_electric/index.htm

http://www.gizmag.com/ford-outlines-aggressive-ev-strategy-battery-electric-small-car-in-2011/10739/

I like the Focus Electric and it'll be interesting to see what pricing Ford goes with on it and how many they can produce when the time comes.

 

[Jimmydreams]

It is likely that the "twice the range" part was a mistake.Charging roughly the same capacity battery pack twice as fast would be due to a "6.6 kW" charging rate, roughly twice that of the 2011 LEAF.

You and I know that. But the uneducated bloggers don't. That 'fact' is out on the internet now, so prepare for a flood of "BUY AMERICAN, IT'S TWICE AS GOOD AS THAT JAP JUNK" blogs!!

:evil:

 

[garygid]

Yes, I agree.
I believe incorrect and sarcastic "fun" comments here will be quoted out of context and just give fuel to spreading mis-information everywhere!

 

[LeafinThePark]

CEO says "I want 4 hour charging!".
Engineers say "We'll see what we can do about 4 hour charging!"
Spokesman hears that they're working on 4 hour charge and says "The Focus will charge in 4 hours or less."


:?

As an engineer, I can say that you may be spot on.

I think this is also how Nissan got into trouble with their release timing...marketing twisting what they were told about cars available for delivery.

 

[Herm]

retrofiting an existing car is cheap compared to a whole new design. Ford no doubt, did it to reduce cost and time to market. i am sure they did it to match Nissan pricing. they are well aware of the biggest detriment to the Volt and that is the price

God knows what they will sell it for, both Ford and Magna together may be willing to sell it at a loss for now.. even Nissan is probably selling the Leaf at a loss... for now.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Nissan is only selling the Leaf at a loss if R&D is factored in. other than that cost which should not be ignored, i do not believe they are losing money on the Leaf

 

[evnow]

retrofiting an existing car is cheap compared to a whole new design. Ford no doubt, did it to reduce cost and time to market. i am sure they did it to match Nissan pricing. they are well aware of the biggest detriment to the Volt and that is the price

We are getting OT here - but - (as I wrong it ABG) while the initial investment is low for conversions, I believe the per unit cost will be higher. The otherway round for purpose built EVs.

Ford plan on making just 20K Focus EVs a year. With that volume it makes sense to just convert. Afterall the whole thing is an afterthought - Magna did the conversion and convinced Ford to productionalize it.

 

[prberg]

My guess is that the 2012 Leaf will be pretty much the same as the 2011. Nissan might upgrade the charger to match Ford's. I bet we won't see any real changes till 2013 or 2014. I could see some software improvements to the interface, etc. But I doubt there will be much different with model year 2012.

What are you trying to do? Pour ice water on everyone who lives where it is cold? It seems to me the one thing sure to be in the 2012 model is the cold weather package, and you didn't mention that. Personally, I expect 2012 to have the same charger as 2011. I do think there may be some software tweaks affecting the display panels and CarWings.

Ray

Sorry I did forget about the cold weather package. But I thought that since Nissan had talked about releasing that option relatively soon, there wasn't much question about it. I bet they will make that option avail. by 2012.