'16 30 kWh pack - backwards compatibility and warranty?

[Valdemar]

Whatever, I'm done here. Let's continue to salivating.

 

[TimLee]

...
And it's great that you will tell your truth, and others will tell their truth.
But no one really should tell only one side of the truth..
I think it's good for people to know ALL the truth..
...

I concur fully.
I always attempt to tell the full story in whatever time is available.

In many circumstances that is short and limited to the LEAF is a great vehicle best I ever owned, that Nissan did a great thing in taking a chance and building it for which they are to be commended, but the battery is defective and Nissan unfortunately failed to stand behind the product properly.

I hope the new chemistry resolves the problem, and a 30 kWh pack hopefully in the same battery containment is encouraging.
Maybe they will will offer it for older LEAFs at some point.
But most of their limited comment on the issue has indicated that is somewhat unlikely.

 

[TomT]

I concur! Nissan would have done nothing whatsoever if they had not been forced to by the class action lawsuit, and then what they did finally offer was minimal at best...
There is absolutely NO reason why Nissan should get ANY kudos or consideration for how they handled the battery defect issue!

Even if I do get a capacity warranty replacement, I will honestly tell everyone that Nissan sold a defective product and that they did not properly support what they sold.

 

[GRA]

cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.

In hot places, perhaps. In very hot places I agree.

Seems like Leafs might last a lot longer in reasonable climates like Norway or Seattle. Like a decade longer.

Oh, but do keep up the Fool Cell Propaganda.

Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?

 

[jhm614]

Which doesn't change the fact that outside of benign climates, _current_ LEAFs are three year cars for most people, and certainly not five, which is why they're worth so little used.

Don't you mean pre-2014 (or maybe pre-Lizard) Leafs? The current Lizard chemistry hasn't been out long enough to make this judgement.

 

[minispeed]

Mark my words: There will never - NEVER - be a Nissan battery upgrade for the current version of the Leaf!

That is correct, the key word is Nissan upgrade, however a 3rd party upgrade product is a possibility. It won't be cheap, and volumes will be very low.

There are far too many hurdles to setting up a business with an aftermarket battery replacement for the Leaf. The pack is way too big to ship out to customers and also ship back the cases for core returns. Even in leaf hot beds with lots of cars that can be driven to the shop I doubt anyone would want to start this task when the market is guaranteed to dry up when the first gen cars get scrapped. If the second gen cars are 150+ miles with heat resistant cells then any work they do on the first gen won't be any good when the second gen cars start aging as they should all do 100+ miles.

Even if commercial wholesale prices of packs gets to $200/kWh that's $4800 just to get back up to 24.

So at least $5K on a car that's worth no more than $7-9K. This also at a time when we'll probably start seeing off lease 2017s.

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying there won't be people who want it. I just think that no one will try because the market will be so small and if someone does try it will be almost guaranteed to fail.

As for Nissan providing the pack..... they can loose a few buyers who want to buy 3 cars over 30 years in favour of more who will then own 5-10 cars during that same period because the new pack is only in the new car.

 

[Bazooka]

Mark my words: There will never - NEVER - be a Nissan battery upgrade for the current version of the Leaf!

That is correct, the key word is Nissan upgrade, however a 3rd party upgrade product is a possibility. It won't be cheap, and volumes will be very low.

There are far too many hurdles to setting up a business with an aftermarket battery replacement for the Leaf. The pack is way too big to ship out to customers and also ship back the cases for core returns. Even in leaf hot beds with lots of cars that can be driven to the shop I doubt anyone would want to start this task when the market is guaranteed to dry up when the first gen cars get scrapped. If the second gen cars are 150+ miles with heat resistant cells then any work they do on the first gen won't be any good when the second gen cars start aging as they should all do 100+ miles.

Even if commercial wholesale prices of packs gets to $200/kWh that's $4800 just to get back up to 24.

So at least $5K on a car that's worth no more than $7-9K. This also at a time when we'll probably start seeing off lease 2017s.

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying there won't be people who want it. I just think that no one will try because the market will be so small and if someone does try it will be almost guaranteed to fail.

As for Nissan providing the pack..... they can loose a few buyers who want to buy 3 cars over 30 years in favour of more who will then own 5-10 cars during that same period because the new pack is only in the new car.

The current situation in the evolution of EV technology is amazingly complex when you take into account current status and trends in economics, market psychology, technical details (battery characteristics, etc.), public policy, etc.

But I think the basic description above that leads to there not being a viable third party battery upgrade business is correct.

We'll learn a lot about how Nissan views all of this in the next two years, possibly less, with what they choose to do with the 2016 and 2.0 Leafs. Probably the one thing the old guard car companies least want to see is a situation where EVs last a long time and the corporations wind up selling one customer a single car and then one or two replacement batteries over 15-20 years. Again, this goes back to their fundamental vision of their business: Are they primarily a car company or a battery company? (I'm convinced that car companies realize that a lot of the new, whiz-bang features in develop, like autonomous vehicles, are far enough from being market ready and are not that compelling for customers, so people would be happy keeping the same car for a long time.)

My guess is that Nissan will make product line decisions that push hard in the direction of remaining a car company, e.g. they'll offer upgraded packs for older Leafs either not at all or at a steep price. I'd like to see them be enlightened and courageous enough to offer different pack sizes as options on trim levels, but I think there's very little chance of that happening. The Leaf will be a low enough volume car in most markets that Nissan and dealers won't want to be stuck with cars that are too hard to sell because they're the less popular trim/pack combinations.

Still, I hope there's at least one or two positive surprises coming from Nissan, like the e-NV van with the 30 kWh pack, or an LE that challenges the Tesla S.

 

[GRA]

Which doesn't change the fact that outside of benign climates, _current_ LEAFs are three year cars for most people, and certainly not five, which is why they're worth so little used.

Don't you mean pre-2014 (or maybe pre-Lizard) Leafs? The current Lizard chemistry hasn't been out long enough to make this judgement.

Quite so. OTOH, who would take Nissan's word for it, when they haven't improved the warranty at all? Even with no change in warranty (and IMO they should go to at least 8 yrs/100k to match the competition), the 2nd gen will have some value for commuting to a fair number of people for a decade or more.

 

[WetEV]

Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?

Suppose the situation was reversed, and Leafs were doing great in SoCal, and not so good in the cooler parts of the country. You owned, and loved a Leaf, and I wouldn't stop saying how horrible the Leaf was, and how the batteries kept losing capacity rapidly, without ever mentioning that it was different elsewhere.

Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.

Based on how batteries have done elsewhere, I've got a very reasonable expectation that it will be over 10 years and over 100k miles before my battery is down to 70% of original capacity, which isn't a disaster to me as I've have and will continue to plan on less capacity as the car gets older. And if I have an option for 30kWh battery retrofit in 10 years? Cool.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.

THIS. This, this, this. Remember that LEAF, Tesla and i-MiEV are pretty much all that's available nationally. In bang-for-buck, NOTHING touches the LEAF in much of the country.

 

[evnow]

I expect the 30 kWh pack to be backward compatible - in terms of physically mounting to Leaf.

Not sure whether BMS will handle 30 kWh Leaf without any hardware updates. If it is just a question of s/w update - that would be great.

Just as a general note - I should say not being backward compatible is obviously what the engineers desire. That gives them the maximum flexibility when designing anything. Backward compatibility will always impose inefficiencies and inelegant design solutions. Usually engineers always want a fresh start - whereas marketing folks want backward compatibility. Product managers have to balance these two competing pressures in any company.

 

[GRA]

Sure, they'll last longer in ideal climates. Since when, though, is coastal SoCal considered an unreasonable climate?

Suppose the situation was reversed, and Leafs were doing great in SoCal, and not so good in the cooler parts of the country. You owned, and loved a Leaf, and I wouldn't stop saying how horrible the Leaf was, and how the batteries kept losing capacity rapidly, without ever mentioning that it was different elsewhere.

Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.

Based on how batteries have done elsewhere, I've got a very reasonable expectation that it will be over 10 years and over 100k miles before my battery is down to 70% of original capacity, which isn't a disaster to me as I've have and will continue to plan on less capacity as the car gets older. And if I have an option for 30kWh battery retrofit in 10 years? Cool.

Sure my words are read outside of So Cal (I'm in NorCal, BTW). They may be read in all of California, which makes up 45% of the PEV sales in the country. And in the southwest, Texas, the central plains states, the southeast, the Mid-Atlantic states and on up to New England and around the Great Lakes, across the northern plains states and back to the PNW. The question is, what % of the country, and even more importantly, what % of the country where LEAFs have been widely sold, is going to see batteries lasting 10 years with reasonable use remaining? Atlanta? Phoenix? Texas? Florida? The Carolinas? DC? Outside of the PNW, the northern tier states and maybe New England, battery degradation is going to be a severe problem in the U.S., and the northern tier states have such reduced winter range that even moderate degradation will make them non-viable.

So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMn2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.

 

[nerys]

Not offering backwards compatibility will very probably turn me off future nissan purchases. I don't like being left out in the dark so to speak if it is technically and reasonable possible.

I don't mind paying an extra $1000 for the higher capacity back.

that 25% would be simply huge to me. as it is I can't use the heater in the winter except when driving locally as it reduces the range below the minimum one way trip distances I drive (54miles) I can use heat if I preheat on umbilical power down to 28'F lower than that (maybe 25' is doable but I won't risk it)

worth it? YES. already saved nearly $5000 in gasoline. 25% of what I paid for the car.

but I REALLY want more range. really badly. really really badly. a 25% boost would mean no backup ice needed at work anymore.

 

[Newporttom]

As some who owns, and is probably going to qualify for a new battery, offering backwards compatibility might offer a new revenue stream. I'd gladly pay $2,000 to upgrade from 24 to 30 as part of battery replacement.

 

[minispeed]

Southern California isn't the world, do remember that your words are read outside Southern California.

THIS. This, this, this. Remember that LEAF, Tesla and i-MiEV are pretty much all that's available nationally. In bang-for-buck, NOTHING touches the LEAF in much of the country.

Don't forget about the Ford Focus Electric. Not only is it available nationally, it probably sells in numbers close to or better than the I-MiEV and is a very good value too. If you don't need a heat pump or quick charge that is. It's like getting a Leaf SV for S price.

As some who owns, and is probably going to qualify for a new battery, offering backwards compatibility might offer a new revenue stream. I'd gladly pay $2,000 to upgrade from 24 to 30 as part of battery replacement.

They won't make that much money on a $2000 upgrade over the $5500 price, would you be willing to pay almost double? They have already said that the $5500 for the leaf battery is at a loss and I haven't seen anything in the battery market to believe that isn't true. For them to make money on that upgrade they'd first have to sell the 24kWh part at a profit then sell you the extra 6kWh at a profit too. I think it would be a safe bet for them to make a decent profit off the 24kWh pack it would be $8000 which actually would be $2000 for 6 kWh like you said but that would put a $30 kWh pack at $10k plus install for a total cost of $11k vs todays $6500.

In your case though you'd want to upgrade a warrantee replacement. They would probably take the bet that if they don't offer an upgrade they'll make more profit off those that choose to trade up to a leaf 2 because an upgrade wasn't available even if it means losing out on some customers. As I've said before the customers that want to keep the car 6-10 years are not that important to car dealers when you've got many that are on 2-6 year replacement cycles.

 

[desiv]

So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.

I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)

I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.

desiv
(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )

 

[minispeed]

So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.

I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)

I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.

desiv
(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )

After a year I think it's safe to say that the lizard packs will live up to or be very close to what Nissan promised with capacity loss originally. I doubt we`ll see many if any packs that even come close to warrantee issues for capacity. 1 year of heavy use on mine with 0% loss (built May 2014 delivered July 23rd).

Active TMS has its advantages right now but ultimately

it can be engineered so it`s not needed that`s a good thing for the industry and for us.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

So I'm happy for you that you live in one of the few parts of the country and have such moderate range requirements that a LiMN2O4 chemistry battery without an active TMS can usefully last you for (hopefully) a decade, but that combination of circumstances makes up only a tiny % of the country.

I don't know that we know that is the case with the Lizard pack tho...
Early reports seem to show it handling the heat better.. (Not sure we have enough time on the packs to know for sure tho...)

I do feel bad for early adopters in hotter climates and wish Nissan handled it better, but I'd still prefer that a simpler system without active TMS will work.

desiv
(Also, I don't know if I'd call the parts of the US with moderate climates "the few parts of the country", but that's a matter of perspective.. ;-) )

After a year I think it's safe to say that the lizard packs will live up to or be very close to what Nissan promised with capacity loss originally. I doubt we`ll see many if any packs that even come close to warrantee issues for capacity. 1 year of heavy use on mine with 0% loss (built May 2014 delivered July 23rd).

Active TMS has its advantages right now but ultimately

it can be engineered so it`s not needed that`s a good thing for the industry and for us.

How hot was last summer for you in Ontario? Just south of you in NYS, last summer was really cool and wet. By contrast, the summer of 2013 was very hot.

My 2012 Leaf saw about 4% degradation in 2012, 8% in 2013, and maybe 3% in 2014. I'm sitting right at the threshold of losing the 1st bar (although I haven't yet).

 

[tkdbrusco]

I feel like they are going to have to make it backwards compatible. There is simply no way that they can only offer the 24kwh option and manage the used leaf market, as well as sell all those lease returns. Also if the rumors of the S model staying at 24kwh are true, they won't sell those without an upgrade option either. Here's what I expect as far as policy and pricing.

(1) I expect that the 30kwh pack is the same cells and chemistry as the current 24kwh Lizard pack and also the same chemistry used in the forthcoming 2017 Gen2 packs. This will make it such mass production can lower the price of the packs over time.

(2) No immediate availability of the new 30kwh pack to older cars. This will likely happen sometime mid 2016 in order ensure that they have enough production for the existing cars.

(3) No availability of 30kwh packs for warranty replacements. Or a significant price bump on it to the tune of $2500 or more. If you want a free pack, you can get the 24kwh pack. If you want the bigger one, you buy pay a lot extra. Here's why. They'd rather get the current 11-12 owners to simply trade in for a new leaf. Also remember that they never promised a brand new pack for the warranty replacements, only a pack that had 9+ bars. This will likely be the justification for the steeper price bump for the larger pack, the lingering threat that you may not be getting a brand new one for free, but actually a refurb.

(4) Retail price on replacement packs for existing cars will be continue to be $5500 for the 24kwh, and $7000 for the larger 30kwh pack. There is incentive to keep these prices lower and here's why. First, nearly no MY13-15 car will be buying either of these packs in the next 2-3 years. The only cars out there that may purchase them are MY11-12 cars, and of those, a decent percentage will be warranty repairs. They keep the prices low (at cost or below) strictly as a means to advertise the futureproofing of the Leaf model and their dedication to the brand. They need to move used lease returns, they need to be loyal to their Gen1 owners and keep them with the brand. If you jack up the price significantly for the 30kwh pack, you make an entirely different statement. Also if you consider that only a small percentage of MY11-12 owners will be paying for these packs in the near future, as Nissan, you are not at too much of a risk for a big loss. The benefit of saying you offer a reasonably priced replacement far outweigh the negatives. The reality is that you won't see a significant wave of people looking to buy new packs for roughly 2-3 years (when MY13-14 cars start hitting degradation and when MY11-12 cars become completely unusable). At this point, the manufacturing costs will have decreased and the current price structure of the replacement packs may yield them a profit.

 

[nerys]

I hope that resembles reality in some form. I would gladly pay $7k for nearly 9 or 10 more kwh than i have now (18.5kwh)

Gladly with zero hesitation. Where do i sign?

The problem with trade in is they are nearly worthless and that is what they will give you for it. Nearly nothing. Unless that changes?