15 year cost of ownership (Cash buyers)

[theaveng]

I compiled this data from cars,com, listing the cost if you paid cash (therefore no loans, interest, etc), and you intend to keep the car for its full lifespan (or until junked). I doubt these are accurate since even Toyota says "The battery in a Prius will last the life of the car (180,000 miles)." Obviously a worn-out battery would add another $3000 maintenance cost, but I did not include that for this 15 year calculation. Ditto with the other EVs/hybrids. (For example the Leaf would eventually need a new $10,000 battery.)

15 year cost (225,000 miles).
Pricetag + Maintenance + Fuel

$50,500 Leaf (EV)
$57,900 Volt (EV with range extension)
$59,900 Prius C (hybrid)

$61,100 Prius Plugin (EV with range extension)
$63,500 Insight (hybrid)
$65,800 Civic (hybrid)

$66,700 Versa
$67,400 Fiesta
$70,300 Fusion (hybrid)

$71,000 Jetta
$72,200 Prius (hybrid)
$72,600 Yaris

$76,900 Jetta (diesel)
$77,100 Cruze
$82,300 Cruze (diesel)

 

[jsongster]

Did they take tax incentives into the equations?

 

[smkettner]

Where to we get that $10,000 battery? I am thinking you may need one at 5yr and again at 10yrs. Every two years in AZ.

 

[johnrhansen]

I don't expect to ever need a battery as my daily use is less than 40 miles. So even if my battery lost half it's capacity, I would never spend the money on a new one, rather, I would simply buy a newer electric car that probably will have much more range by then, and use my old one as a get around town beater car and drive it into the ground.

 

[user 10599]

Neat analysis.

I'm doubtful they factored in incentives since not everyone would qualify, different jurisdictions, and there seems to be little difference in the TOC between similar models that would/would not qualify.

As for battery replacement cost, there is a $16k savings between the Leaf and the least expensive car on the list that doesn't have either an EV or hybrid battery. So there is plenty of room before battery replacement costs change the equation in favor of non-EV/hybrid.

And over the next 15 years, presumably battery replacement cost will drop, just difficult to predict when and how much.

 

[theaveng]

They subtracted U.S. tax credits for EVs and plug-in hybrids.

 

[cgaydos]

They subtracted U.S. tax credits for EVs and plug-in hybrids.

So for states with large state tax credits (GA, CO) the TOC drops another $5k or so for the LEAF. Not bad.

And certainly enough to cover a battery replacement at the half-way point if needed. While we don't have an official price for the leaf battery we do have data on the cost of new-ish salvage LEAFs and can use that as a guide. Also, given the 15 year timeframe I suspect that the battery options at the half-way point of ownership for a LEAF will be very different than what they are now.

 

[Stanton]

Interesting; thanks for posting.
In my view, Nissan has "sweetened the pot" with the 5 yr/ 60k capacity warranty for those who will need/use it; I now believe I can go 10+ years without *purchasing* a battery (if I want to maintain a 70+ mile range).

 

[reeler]

15 years is a long time. I typically keep a car 10 years because they just aren't reliable enough after that for my tastes. But, an EV may be different having great reliability until the day you can no longer tolerate the decreased range.

 

[user 10599]

I usually buy used Mercedes (4-6 years old) and then keep them about 5-15 years. They've been incredibly reliable long term and buying used saves a ton. Eventually new features like airbags get me to upgrade.

I concur that the electric will likely prove to be reliable throughout the 15 year life. I will be interested in seeing how the new B-electric places on the TOC chart.

 

[smkettner]

15 years? My next car might be my last. May as well make it a good one.

 

[Train]

You would need a new battery in 15 years for the Leaf. Possibly two. To keep that out of the maintenance costs leaves the comparison meaningless. It makes a significant difference.

 

[johnrhansen]

I will never put a battery in my leaf. I will shoehorn a big block chevy in there just for fun it ever gets so bad I can't drive it. By the time the battery is that bad there will be so many better cars out there the car won't be worth enough to mess with. This is the fate of early adopters.

 

[goaliepride]

There are fewer moving parts to go bad in the leaf. I do wonder (naively, sure) how long she would run if you just kept plopping new batteries in her. Clearly this makes a lot of assumptions about the continued availability of freshly made batteries at reasonable prices.

 

[braineo]

Nobody taking into account that we will be able to install a flux capacitor in a few years and have unlimited electricity out of garbage?

Just tires and brakes, tires and brakes.....