I want to thank everyone for all the good information that has shown up in the forum this year. From this information and a few other sources I'm trying to understand the cost and limits of getting a Leaf. Excuse the large size post but it’s a summary of many facts I have picked up.
Cost of Ownership
My view of the cost of ownership for a car consists of the cost for the car itself (capital), maintenance costs (repairs, tires, brakes), and fuel. I'm trying to express the cost for owning a leaf in a per mile way to compare them roughly with other cars we have owned to see if the leaf really makes sense for us.
Capital
Three recent cars we have owned were a Saturn ($17K/187Kmiles @ $.09/mile), Santa Fe ($17K/220Kmiles @ $.08/mile), and Prius ($29K/200Kmiles? @ $.15/mile). So the Leaf's cost could be either $25K with federal and state rebates or $30K for just federal rebates which includes CA state tax. Its life time mileage also could be either 100K then the battery might be up for replacement or 200K assuming one battery replacement. So it would be either $.26/mile or $.13/mile or $.31/mile or $.15/mile. Quite a range of choices.
Maintenance
I don’t have as good of records as to what my car's individual service amounted to. I think its about $.06/mile. My assumptions for the Leaf are that its Tire/Brake cost would be the same and that its other components should be less since it does not have the oil/filter change and less belts and moving parts. Hard to be sure. If it is going to do 200Kmiles then it has a battery replacement of maybe 9K? This would make up for the other parts plus a little so its at least $.07/mile. Its interesting to note that the cost of battery is essentially $.09/mile, and could almost be considered part of the fuel cost.
Fuel
The fuel costs for the cars require that the price of fuel be chosen which is really a moving target. If we choose $3.20/gal then Saturn 29mpg is $.11, Santa Fe 24mpg is $.13 and Prius 45mpg is $.07. The Leaf depends on the cost of the electricity which is also a multiple choice question. We have solar and at the moment our net metering may yield us a zero cost of electricity without adding the car. We have not gone a whole year so we don't know for sure. If we stay on that plan (and forgo the "free" charger we get being in San Diego on the roll out program) then the cost to charge the car is based on SDGE's lower tiers. If we switch to the EV-TOU-2 metering for the whole house, I'm not sure how the solar plays into the plan. The car charges at $.15kWh for EV-TOU-2 average at night and it uses .25kWh/mile which works out to $.04/mile. For the tiered approach you have to choose the average number of miles per month. For me that would be 1000/month estimated. So that's 250kWh which stays at the lowest tier and should be $.13/kWh close to the EV-TOU-2.
Cost of Ownership Summary
So the Saturn works out to be $.27/mile, Santa Fe $.28, and Prius $.27. The Leaf ends up being $.19/mile with federal/state rebates for 200K/miles. It rises to $.22/mile without the state rebate. Should gas prices rise, the other cars rise by about $.05/mile while the Leaf stays flat (at least until SDG&E raises rates).
Range
The range of the Leaf is another limiting factor especially since there are no current fast charger stations. My commute is 28 miles and my wife has a 42 mile commute. If the maximum distance is 100 miles I can commute to work and have a free range of 22 miles for shopping, lunch, and other errands. My wife would have 8 remaining (kinda close). That seemed simple at the outset. I'm unsure if that includes use of climate control (CC)? Next you have to factor in how far it drives at the end of battery which is 80%. Assuming 100 miles, in 8-10 years I have 12 ranging miles, still adequate. My wife can't get to work. Maybe there will be a fast charger downtown by then? Now the harder news. Another poster (Jimmydreams) at the Leaf forum indicates that his new Leaf only charges to 88 miles, not 100 and seems to be getting a real world mileage of 83 miles with freeway speeds. That means for me a new leaf has a free range of less than 16 (OK) and an old range of less than 7 (not good). My wife basically can't use the car.
Conclusions
My wife probably can't use the vehicle as a back up.
If our employers could supply even 110 charging during the day at 6 miles/hour, much of the range issues would vanish.
Fast chargers would also make a huge difference.
The car charger might actually need to have a "done at" rather than a "start at" time to easily take advantage of TOU charging.
Questions:
1) Does anyone know where I can find out how the Solar and the EV-TOU-2 would work out?
2) How can the Leaf have essentially a 12% variance in distance between two cars?
3) Does anyone know if there is going to be even one fast charger in San Diego in the next few years?
Cost of Ownership
My view of the cost of ownership for a car consists of the cost for the car itself (capital), maintenance costs (repairs, tires, brakes), and fuel. I'm trying to express the cost for owning a leaf in a per mile way to compare them roughly with other cars we have owned to see if the leaf really makes sense for us.
Capital
Three recent cars we have owned were a Saturn ($17K/187Kmiles @ $.09/mile), Santa Fe ($17K/220Kmiles @ $.08/mile), and Prius ($29K/200Kmiles? @ $.15/mile). So the Leaf's cost could be either $25K with federal and state rebates or $30K for just federal rebates which includes CA state tax. Its life time mileage also could be either 100K then the battery might be up for replacement or 200K assuming one battery replacement. So it would be either $.26/mile or $.13/mile or $.31/mile or $.15/mile. Quite a range of choices.
Maintenance
I don’t have as good of records as to what my car's individual service amounted to. I think its about $.06/mile. My assumptions for the Leaf are that its Tire/Brake cost would be the same and that its other components should be less since it does not have the oil/filter change and less belts and moving parts. Hard to be sure. If it is going to do 200Kmiles then it has a battery replacement of maybe 9K? This would make up for the other parts plus a little so its at least $.07/mile. Its interesting to note that the cost of battery is essentially $.09/mile, and could almost be considered part of the fuel cost.
Fuel
The fuel costs for the cars require that the price of fuel be chosen which is really a moving target. If we choose $3.20/gal then Saturn 29mpg is $.11, Santa Fe 24mpg is $.13 and Prius 45mpg is $.07. The Leaf depends on the cost of the electricity which is also a multiple choice question. We have solar and at the moment our net metering may yield us a zero cost of electricity without adding the car. We have not gone a whole year so we don't know for sure. If we stay on that plan (and forgo the "free" charger we get being in San Diego on the roll out program) then the cost to charge the car is based on SDGE's lower tiers. If we switch to the EV-TOU-2 metering for the whole house, I'm not sure how the solar plays into the plan. The car charges at $.15kWh for EV-TOU-2 average at night and it uses .25kWh/mile which works out to $.04/mile. For the tiered approach you have to choose the average number of miles per month. For me that would be 1000/month estimated. So that's 250kWh which stays at the lowest tier and should be $.13/kWh close to the EV-TOU-2.
Cost of Ownership Summary
So the Saturn works out to be $.27/mile, Santa Fe $.28, and Prius $.27. The Leaf ends up being $.19/mile with federal/state rebates for 200K/miles. It rises to $.22/mile without the state rebate. Should gas prices rise, the other cars rise by about $.05/mile while the Leaf stays flat (at least until SDG&E raises rates).
Range
The range of the Leaf is another limiting factor especially since there are no current fast charger stations. My commute is 28 miles and my wife has a 42 mile commute. If the maximum distance is 100 miles I can commute to work and have a free range of 22 miles for shopping, lunch, and other errands. My wife would have 8 remaining (kinda close). That seemed simple at the outset. I'm unsure if that includes use of climate control (CC)? Next you have to factor in how far it drives at the end of battery which is 80%. Assuming 100 miles, in 8-10 years I have 12 ranging miles, still adequate. My wife can't get to work. Maybe there will be a fast charger downtown by then? Now the harder news. Another poster (Jimmydreams) at the Leaf forum indicates that his new Leaf only charges to 88 miles, not 100 and seems to be getting a real world mileage of 83 miles with freeway speeds. That means for me a new leaf has a free range of less than 16 (OK) and an old range of less than 7 (not good). My wife basically can't use the car.
Conclusions
My wife probably can't use the vehicle as a back up.
If our employers could supply even 110 charging during the day at 6 miles/hour, much of the range issues would vanish.
Fast chargers would also make a huge difference.
The car charger might actually need to have a "done at" rather than a "start at" time to easily take advantage of TOU charging.
Questions:
1) Does anyone know where I can find out how the Solar and the EV-TOU-2 would work out?
2) How can the Leaf have essentially a 12% variance in distance between two cars?
3) Does anyone know if there is going to be even one fast charger in San Diego in the next few years?
