evnow
Well-known member
Now that the much awaited Leaf is 2 years old, I thought it was a good time to relook at some of our hopes from 2 years ago and the reality we see today. I'll just list the 3 most important ones that I see.
We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.
The reality is a bit different - quite a bit different. Once the activitists, who numbers a few thousand, had their Leafs hardly anyone wanted to buy a Leaf. Even with easy availability, Leaf sales were stuck around 500 a month. The large number of environmentally conscious consumers - or even the wholefoods types, preferred to buy Priuses or SUVs instead of Leafs. Apparently most consumers didn't want to make that jump. Afterall buying organic only requires a bit more money and no real "sacrifice" - and might even have personal health benefits. Buying a Leaf meant sacrifices - either convinience or luxury.
We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.
We thought Nissan would have done the needed studies. Infact, a Leaf was supposed to have been continuously running in AZ to test the longevity of the battery. The chemistry of the battery was such that active cooling wasn't needed. But the reality has been that in warmer places, the battery has degraded - atleast according to Leaf's instruments - faster than anyone had imagined.
So, the future of Leaf (and EVs in general) is now somewhat uncertain. Will the low sales and slow change continue even after MY13 is introduced ? What will happen to the large battery factory that Nissan has built ?
Will there be some other breakthrough that actually does what Leaf we thought would do ?
We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.
The reality is a bit different - quite a bit different. Once the activitists, who numbers a few thousand, had their Leafs hardly anyone wanted to buy a Leaf. Even with easy availability, Leaf sales were stuck around 500 a month. The large number of environmentally conscious consumers - or even the wholefoods types, preferred to buy Priuses or SUVs instead of Leafs. Apparently most consumers didn't want to make that jump. Afterall buying organic only requires a bit more money and no real "sacrifice" - and might even have personal health benefits. Buying a Leaf meant sacrifices - either convinience or luxury.
We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.
We thought Nissan would have done the needed studies. Infact, a Leaf was supposed to have been continuously running in AZ to test the longevity of the battery. The chemistry of the battery was such that active cooling wasn't needed. But the reality has been that in warmer places, the battery has degraded - atleast according to Leaf's instruments - faster than anyone had imagined.
So, the future of Leaf (and EVs in general) is now somewhat uncertain. Will the low sales and slow change continue even after MY13 is introduced ? What will happen to the large battery factory that Nissan has built ?
Will there be some other breakthrough that actually does what Leaf we thought would do ?