We should do some sort of Livestream or town hall discussion about this topic sometime. I truly enjoy deep diving on this with folks. So many great perspectives and insights. I always learn something new.
Eric, for what it is worth, this is my prospective on it.
I bought my 1st Leaf this fall, used with 9 bars and upper 60's to low 70's on the GOM.
If you add the cost of the car to a new 40 K battery pack, I am still under 20K.
I could have, I suppose, taken that 20K and bought a newer low mile Leaf.
Since it was my 1st, and even though I researched it till hell wont have it, I will not plunk down that kind of cash without any seat time.
So I bought a very well cared for 2015 that looks new inside and out. It will do what I bought it for, but if it would do more, it would be used even more. Right now it is used for better than 95% of trips.
In a few years, if it will no longer go to town and back, or I just can't wait to be able to do longer trips, I would consider plunking down more cash to upgrade the battery. I have a car that I have time in, know its condition and a new battery would likely outlast us. In the mean time I am getting the savings to help save up for a new battery and I will know the cars strengths and weaknesses before I plunk down more cash. If I spent $20k all at once, I'd have no recourse if the car or battery turned out to be a dud. Also just a short test drive isn't enough to find out if you are comfortable long term in a car. I'll get that long term view before I spend serious cash, not after.
Like all cars, there are some things that break more often than others, but the Leaf's drivetrain has a good reputation, the battery is one of its weaker points. The charger diode sometimes can go bad, and depending on if shorted or open can be an easy or hard fix.
I suspect many Leafs are going to find their way to the recycling yards because the owners think "it is not worth putting that kind of money in". But that means used chargers and drivelines will be easier to come by if needed. So that leave the body/chassie, and I don't think it will be any better or worse than most other makes on the market.
My 2015 Leaf replace a 2000 Camry for a daily driver, so I got a car 15 year newer than I was driving.
There is always the chance of an inverter failure or other major component, but that is true for any vehicle.
Ok, there you go, that is one mans prospective, lets see if that gets the ball rolling.