Over the past twelve months, there has been a significant
shift in the momentum of California’s hydrogen fueling
station network development and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
(FCEV) deployment. Growth of the on-the-road FCEV fleet
has continued to accelerate year-over-year, with
4,411 FCEVs
registered to the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) as of
April 4, and the most recent industry estimates indicating a
total of 4,819 vehicles deployed through May of 2018 [1]. The
hydrogen fueling network has gained seven additional OpenRetail
stations, for totals of 36 Open-Retail and 28 additional
funded stations. . . .
The California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) also
accomplished a first-of-its-kind milestone for the State,
awarding
grant funding to a hydrogen production facility to supply two
tons per day of 100% renewable hydrogen to California’s growing
network of retail fueling stations. This project begins to address
the potential gap in hydrogen production capacity identified in
last year’s Annual Evaluation, especially in-state and renewable
hydrogen production capacity.
Projections for FCEVs and hydrogen stations in the future
have greatly increased. In January, Governor Brown issued
Executive Order (EO) B-48-18. Among other provisions,
the order sets an additional hydrogen station network
development target of 200 stations by 2025 [2]. This is double the current target in Assembly Bill 8 (AB 8; Perea,
Chapter 201, Statues of 2013) but set only two years later [3]. Meeting this ambitious target clearly requires
accelerated effort on the part of the State to ensure its achievement. The EO additionally sets a target for 5
million ZEVs by 2030; FCEVs are expected to comprise a significant portion of this future ZEV fleet.
Moreover, the public/private California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP) members recently published an equally
ambitious shared vision for the potential growth of the industry to 2030. In their vision,
the targets of the
Executive Order are a stepping stone on the path to 1,000,000 FCEVs on the road by 2030, supported by a
network of 1,000 hydrogen stations [4]. Predicated on the continuing development of regulatory and policy
environments sufficient to sustain this remarkably swift growth, CaFCP members anticipate:
- • diversification of hydrogen and fuel cells into other transportation sectors
• a retail fueling experience that provides station and network convenience
on par with today’s gasoline station network
• hydrogen fuel that is cost-competitive with gasoline on a per-mile basis
• the potential for increased renewable hydrogen production, and
• a transition away from government financial support and towards industry financial self-reliance
Accomplishing these goals in such a short period of time also requires a significant change in the pace of
developments going forward, along with combined resolve and commitment from all stakeholders. . . .
Projections for on-the-road FCEV counts now exceed 23,000 in 2021 and 47,000 in 2024.
These projections represent increases over the previously reported data. While the total
number of vehicles projected in the long-term continues to grow, a path towards the goals of
the CaFCP members’ vision has not yet been conveyed through the annual survey process.
- • CARB’s scenario analysis for hydrogen fueling station network buildout in support of the CaFCP
2030 vision can be used as a reference for evaluating proposed station locations in future funding
programs. Developing a network similar to this reference scenario ensures balanced growth
between markets that will need a high density of high-capacity stations to supply overlapping
coverage and providing initial coverage in markets projected to grow soon after today’s
first-adopter markets are established. Convenience of station locations on par with today’s
network of 8,000 gasoline fueling stations can be achieved with 1,000 properly-placed
hydrogen stations to enable both short- and long-distance travel. In addition, the network in
this scenario is able to ensure nearly every member of a Disadvantaged Community (DAC) has
convenient access to a hydrogen fueling station near their home by 2030, thereby broadening
the population for whom a switch to a zero-emission FCEV is a viable transportation choice.
• Hydrogen station network growth must accelerate between now and 2024 in order to meet both
the 2025 goals of EO B-48-18 and the 2030 goals of the CaFCP. The required acceleration would
ensure that hydrogen fueling network coverage and capacity lead FCEV deployment and hydrogen
demand. Therefore, if the station network goals are met, there will be ample support for auto
manufacturers to accelerate their FCEV deployment
plans well beyond the rates reported to date.
• The projected hydrogen refueling station network will
continue to meet the minimum renewable
implementation requirements of Senate Bill 1505
(SB 1505; Lowenthal, Chapter 877, Statutes
of 2006) [5]. By 2024, the network will dispense
hydrogen with at least a 34% renewable
content and the potential to reach 39% according
to recent industry stakeholder indications. . . .