Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:10 am

GRA wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:11 pm
See numerous earlier posts reporting R&D and economy of scale effects to accomplish both.
Been hearing that for at least a decade now.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:22 pm

^^^ And costs have been coming down for more than a decade, but you choose to ignore those facts. For instance, in 2004 a single car FC stack cost Toyota $1m to produce. In 2014 they had got the price down (in limited production) to $50k, or a 95% reduction in a decade. It's presumably lower now, but they anticipate scaling up from the current 3k to 30k annual production will get the cost down to $10k (a further 80% reduction from 2014), at which point they say the cost will be competitive.

Similar albeit not so radical cost reductions have occurred in other areas (H2 storage, dispensing, tranportation, production using renewables, etc.) due to economies of scale, technical development or both, just as they have in every other area of manufacturing, and the whole retail chain using renewable H2 is still a long way away from maturity so there's plenty of room for further reductions. None of which guarantees that H2 FCEVs will succeed, of course, as they'll have to compete with other techs such as BEVs that are ahead of them in development and deployment. But to pretend, as you do, that H2 and FCEV costs can't be reduced further and technical development is at a stage where there'll only be minor incremental improvements, while consistently ignoring any evidence to the contrary, isn't being honest. H2 and FCEVs have real hurdles to overcome to be commercial, cost being the main one, but we simply don't know yet if they can be overcome (enough), and if they can be overcome fast enough to beat the competition.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

salyavin
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:55 pm

On hydrogen from solar being a waste it sure is as is transporting it to hyrdogen stations. If it gives more range, had little degredation or other heat issues that batteries have and is as cheap it may succeed. I just don't see it though they need the cost down and to build all those stations and transport it. If I am wrong awesome I'll take it. From what I see today with as far as we are with charging networks and EV range I would be seriously impressed if hydrogen could catch up and offer price parity and similar availability.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:40 pm

GCC:
Trillium completes construction of largest hydrogen transit refueling station in North America
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... llium.html


. . . The Santa Ana, California hydrogen station, which went live Friday, was jointly developed by Trillium, Air Products, the Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE), Ballard Fuel Systems and New Flyer.

Houston-based Trillium is a leading provider of renewable fuels and alternative energy solutions for fleets around the country.

The hydrogen station, built to fuel Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) buses, will fill up a transit bus in six to 10 minutes, similar to diesel or CNG bus filling rates, making this the only zero-emission fuel choice that allows fleets to operate as usual. Currently 10 buses are equipped for hydrogen, but the station allows the fleet to grow to 50 with only minimal additional capital costs.

Air Products provided enabling equipment and will deliver liquid hydrogen fuel. New Flyer provided the fuel cell electric buses and Ballard provided the hydrogen fuel cell electric technology that powers the buses. . . .

CTE, a nonprofit that advocates for clean, sustainable, innovative transportation and energy technologies, managed the administration of the project, particularly as it related to the funds secured through California Climate Investments, a statewide initiative that uses cap-and-trade dollars to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen the economy and improve public health and the environment.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm

Never said the fuel cell wouldn't become cheap enough to use in a car.
Hopefully they do and can burn alcohol, natural gas or super low sulfur diesel.

I say it's dead on arrival because of the catastrophically inefficient and disastrously wasteful obscenity known as hydrogen.
Right now from that article the cars and fueling are totally propped up with other people's money.

As far as I'm concerned tesla purl (the man in the 1880s and the company now) has killed the most of the need for a hydrogen car.
Cause right now I can buy a car from the company that goes over 200 miles on a charge and charge said car at home at night or on the road because of the man.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:26 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Never said the fuel cell wouldn't become cheap enough to use in a car.
Hopefully they do and can burn alcohol, natural gas or super low sulfur diesel.

I say it's dead on arrival because of the catastrophically inefficient and disastrously wasteful obscenity known as hydrogen.
Right now from that article the cars and fueling are totally propped up with other people's money.
Just as BEVs (bar the luxury end of the market, in some places) and QCing are still totally propped up with OPM.

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
As far as I'm concerned tesla purl (the man in the 1880s and the company now) has killed the most of the need for a hydrogen car.
Cause right now I can buy a car from the company that goes over 200 miles on a charge and charge said car at home at night or on the road because of the man.
And you bought it with at least some OPM, didn't you?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:10 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:22 pm
^^^ And costs have been coming down for more than a decade, but you choose to ignore those facts.
Still need a 90% reduction in cost to produce hydrogen. The curve may flatten and approach a minimum that is too high to be viable.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:40 pm

smkettner wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:10 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:22 pm
^^^ And costs have been coming down for more than a decade, but you choose to ignore those facts.
Still need a 90% reduction in cost to produce hydrogen. The curve may flatten and approach a minimum that is too high to be viable.

Yes, it may, although 90% is too high. About 60% will do it here at current gas prices, and it's already cost-competitive in some countries thanks to high fuel taxes. It certainly doesn't hurt that some of the sustainable H2 is being electrolysed using electricity from wind/PV that would otherwise need to be curtailed or sold at a loss, a trend that will likely grow as we get a larger % of our electricity from VR. But a much more efficient H2 production method than current electrolysis (photo- or thermochemical) would obviously be desirable, which is why there's (government and industry-backed) R&D in those areas as well as for more efficient/cheaper electrolysis.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:26 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Never said the fuel cell wouldn't become cheap enough to use in a car.
Hopefully they do and can burn alcohol, natural gas or super low sulfur diesel.

I say it's dead on arrival because of the catastrophically inefficient and disastrously wasteful obscenity known as hydrogen.
Right now from that article the cars and fueling are totally propped up with other people's money.
Just as BEVs (bar the luxury end of the market, in some places) and QCing are still totally propped up with OPM.

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
As far as I'm concerned tesla purl (the man in the 1880s and the company now) has killed the most of the need for a hydrogen car.
Cause right now I can buy a car from the company that goes over 200 miles on a charge and charge said car at home at night or on the road because of the man.
And you bought it with at least some OPM, didn't you?
2 things there I'm glad you pointed out.

The high power chargers are propped up with opm. But they only get used when long trips are taken. On a hydrogen car it takes opm powered hydrogen to go to the grocery store, to work, to go get more hydrogen, ect.

I only ever buy used cars so the opm would be second or 3rd hand. I wouldn't directly receive any tax credits in NM for second hand green anything.
As far as I know tesla is the only company to take Obama Era opm and is still around. But all those billions wasted, on all those scams and failed ideas it kinda seems worth it now.
Tesla has applied boot to ass on every other car maker and they are scrambling to catch up.

The only chance hydrogen has is to be a plug in hybrid so at least you're not locked into burning hydrogen at around 30 cents a mile just to go to the grocery store.
That's just pure speculation, assuming 1kg of hydrogen will go 50 miles, I can't find much on miles per kilogram of hydrogen.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

GRA
Posts: 12296
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:16 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:26 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Never said the fuel cell wouldn't become cheap enough to use in a car.
Hopefully they do and can burn alcohol, natural gas or super low sulfur diesel.

I say it's dead on arrival because of the catastrophically inefficient and disastrously wasteful obscenity known as hydrogen.
Right now from that article the cars and fueling are totally propped up with other people's money.
Just as BEVs (bar the luxury end of the market, in some places) and QCing are still totally propped up with OPM.

Oilpan4 wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:43 pm
As far as I'm concerned tesla purl (the man in the 1880s and the company now) has killed the most of the need for a hydrogen car.
Cause right now I can buy a car from the company that goes over 200 miles on a charge and charge said car at home at night or on the road because of the man.
And you bought it with at least some OPM, didn't you?
2 things there I'm glad you pointed out.

The high power chargers are propped up with opm. But they only get used when long trips are taken. On a hydrogen car it takes opm powered hydrogen to go to the grocery store, to work, to go get more hydrogen, ect.
Uh huh, and it takes OPM to install public chargers almost everywhere, which is why I include which gov't agency is subsidizing QC and H2 installation as well as public vehicles in all my posts on those subjects if it's available (it usually is), e.g. the last paragraph of viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&p=578555#p578491

Here's a charging example, via GCC:
AMPLY Power & Logan Bus announce 2-year demo project of charging-as-a service for fleets; 5 electric school buses
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... amply.html The relevant sentence is
The $1-million project is being funded by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
I only ever buy used cars so the opm would be second or 3rd hand. I wouldn't directly receive any tax credits in NM for second hand green anything.

As far as I know tesla is the only company to take Obama Era opm and is still around. But all those billions wasted, on all those scams and failed ideas it kinda seems worth it now.

Tesla has applied boot to ass on every other car maker and they are scrambling to catch up.
You don't think every ZEV which still qualifies for federal, state and/or local tax credits/rebates isn't using OPM?

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
The only chance hydrogen has is to be a plug in hybrid so at least you're not locked into burning hydrogen at around 30 cents a mile just to go to the grocery store.

That's just pure speculation, assuming 1kg of hydrogen will go 50 miles, I can't find much on miles per kilogram of hydrogen.

I do think that for people who have someplace to charge for routine driving, PHFCEVs (replacing PHEVs) make the most sense. For others, BEVs or FCEVs may be the ultimate answer (HEVs for now for most) - it all depends on costs, operational requirements, resource/production constraints, and so on, and we don't know how it's all going to turn out.

As for H2 range/kg., easy enough to check. The LD FCEVs currently on the market go around 52-69 miles per kg. of H2, e.g. the Mirai stores just about 5 kg. and has an EPA combined range of 312 miles. The Clarity's better and the Nexo's worse (as you'd expect).
Last edited by GRA on Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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