Why the Electric Car Is Doomed to Fail?

[timhebb]

He has a good point that a used Leaf in 2016 will have to compete against a vastly improved 2016 Leaf (this seems very realistic)-- and resale values may be low as a result. I, therefore, plan to keep my Leaf for its entire usable life. That way, resale is not an issue, and fuel savings over an ICE is maximized.

No, he does not have a good point because the issue of the resale value only pertains to the current battery pack and not the EV itself. By 2016, your 2011 Leaf outfitted with a newer/cheaper/longer range battery is almost "just as good as new".

As long as you're able to get the most use out of the current battery pack between now and 2016 and the savings in gas obtained with this old battery more than pays for itself, you can throw it away or trade it in for cheap in 2016 and not have to worry about its resale value issue at all.

By then, the new model for resale value will be just on the EV itself, separated from the battery pack, like what Better Place is promoting. And once separated from the battery pack, most EV resale value should hold up pretty good.

I can't imagine the market is going to value a used Leaf with a new battery as if it were a new Leaf, even remotely. Even if it turns out that the motor and drive train incur negligible wear and loss of reliability, buyers will still value brand-new seats, interior and "new-car smell" disproportionally to their tangible value, not to mention a pristine exterior and paint job, devoid of the unavoidable scratches and blemishes that will occur over time. I predict that traditional ICEV markers of usage, such as odometer count, will linger into the EV age until well after they have rational meaning.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

In my extensive experience with used cars I find the value of anew car degraded by age was not due to a worn out engine and I also believe the Leafs value will degrade based on seats that don't come as clean as before, the multitudes of tiny scratches, dings and leaky cracked and hardened door seals etc.

Sure sometimes it the motorbut have seen several cars dieof old age that stilll hax strng motors

 

[Volusiano]

I can't imagine the market is going to value a used Leaf with a new battery as if it were a new Leaf, even remotely. Even if it turns out that the motor and drive train incur negligible wear and loss of reliability, buyers will still value brand-new seats, interior and "new-car smell" disproportionally to their tangible value, not to mention a pristine exterior and paint job, devoid of the unavoidable scratches and blemishes that will occur over time. I predict that traditional ICEV markers of usage, such as odometer count, will linger into the EV age until well after they have rational meaning.

I think you guys took what I said about "just as good as new" too literally. Of course a used car is not going to be valued as much as a brand new car, who doesn't know that? Come on, it's just an idiom I used to stress the point that the key thing in an EV that can affect its resale value the most is the battery pack. So if the EV is not "stuck" with the original battery pack and can be easily swapped out with a new battery pack, then only the battery loses resale value but the rest of the car should not lose resale value because the rest of the car is still going to be very reusable for a long time.

Losing resale value on the original battery is an accepted foregone conclusion already. But that's OK as long as people get good use out of this "consumable" item while waiting for better battery technology to come along, and will have had their savings in gas cost pay for the battery itself.

 

[planet4ever]

The PG&E rate structure makes TOU charging untenable for all but a very few customers. You either have to put the entire house on TOU and face astronomical peak-hour charges, or pay through the nose to get a second meter installed for the experimental EVSE rate.

Come on, now, you are way overstating the problem.

• untenable for all but a very few? In the first place, many, (not a very few) posters on this board have solar panels on the roof. I can assure you that the combination of solar panels and PG&E TOU rates works out quite well. I recommend them highly, where feasible, for EV owners.
• astronomical peak-hour charges? Well, yes, summertime peak hours with E-9a (the whole house EV rate schedule) are about twice as high as E-1 (non-TOU) rates. But that's only half the year, and only 1/5 of the hours during that time. So 10% of the time you are paying twice as much. The other 90% of the time the E-9a rates are lower than E-1 rates. Yes, it's only slightly lower except during off-peak hours, but those cost 1/2 to 1/3 what you would be paying on E-1. And that's 45% of the time!

To repeat, 10% of the time you pay twice as much, and 45% of the time you pay a third to half as much. And you can do nearly all of your LEAF charging within that 45% period. So, unless you run your air conditioner, electric clothes dryer, pool pump, and electric range really heavily between 2 and 9 PM, Monday through Friday, From May through October, you can actually save money on E-9a.

Ray

 

[Roadburner440]

I am hoping to be able to upgrade my pack as well but I'm not sure how much labor would cost to drop the old pack and put a new one in. Does anyone know what it would take to swap out a 24kWh pack and put in one that would double or triple our range when they become available? How would a larger pack work with the current software? I'm thinking that it won't be as easy as just swapping out the pack but I don't know.

Swapping out the battery is the easy part. It is a few quick connectors, a few bolts, and it drops right out from underneath the car. Probably takes less than an hour or 2 to remove and replace the battery if you have another one there on hand. I know dropping one out of the Volt is about the same (they only need my car for a day to do that reinforcement of the battery tunnel). The question will be if the Leaf's computers can be flashed to take advantage of a bigger pack. I would hope so. As "throwing the car away" would certaintly take away from the Leaf's image in my mind as that would be more pollution than just buying a gas car in the first place if you only keep it 4 years before scrapping it.

 

[Nubo]

The PG&E rate structure makes TOU charging untenable for all but a very few customers. You either have to put the entire house on TOU and face astronomical peak-hour charges, or pay through the nose to get a second meter installed for the experimental EVSE rate.

Come on, now, you are way overstating the problem.

• untenable for all but a very few? In the first place, many, (not a very few) posters on this board have solar panels on the roof. I can assure you that the combination of solar panels and PG&E TOU rates works out quite well. I recommend them highly, where feasible, for EV owners.
  

• Perhaps solar is common on this board - naturally composed of enthusiasts and early-adopters. Less so in the general population. It's the effect on grid load under wider EV adoption which I'm speaking to.
  
  

  [*]astronomical peak-hour charges? Well, yes, summertime peak hours with E-9a (the whole house EV rate schedule) are about twice as high as E-1 (non-TOU) rates. But that's only half the year, and only 1/5 of the hours during that time. So 10% of the time you are paying twice as much. The other 90% of the time the E-9a rates are lower than E-1 rates. Yes, it's only slightly lower except during off-peak hours, but those cost 1/2 to 1/3 what you would be paying on E-1. And that's 45% of the time!

To repeat, 10% of the time you pay twice as much, and 45% of the time you pay a third to half as much. And you can do nearly all of your LEAF charging within that 45% period. So, unless you run your air conditioner, electric clothes dryer, pool pump, and electric range really heavily between 2 and 9 PM, Monday through Friday, From May through October...

That's exactly my situation. It gets HOT where I live. Admittedly we need to replace our 35-year old AC unit! More capital.

This is the problem for the general buyer. Capital for the car is only the beginning. Ideally, incentives to move to off-peak would be a no-brainer and not require outlays for Solar, AC replacement, new meters, upgraded service lines, trenching, etc. etc. etc...

I still maintain that unless PG&E comes up with a better solution, the majority of EV owners under wide adoption are simply going to crank up the EVSE at exactly the electrical peak load, which in the summer is around 1800-1900 iirc. Unfortunately PG&E are only looking at preservation of revenue and not passing on the opportunity cost in regards to off-peak.

 

[Yodrak]

I haven't given p4e's math a sanity check, but the whole purpose of TOU rates is to incent people to change their usage patterns. The PUC will be checking the utility's math when it reviews and approves (or dis-approves) a proposed rate structure.

Shifting energy use from on-peak to off-peak reduces the cost of adding new generating units to meet the on-peak load demands. So indeed, electricity consumers are going to be 'punished' for on-peak usage and 'rewarded' for off-peak usage. The net result is lower cost of electricity for consumers as a group, although not necessarily for individual consumers.

The PG&E rate structure makes TOU charging untenable for all but a very few customers. You either have to put the entire house on TOU and face astronomical peak-hour charges, or pay through the nose to get a second meter installed for the experimental EVSE rate.

Come on, now, you are way overstating the problem.

• untenable for all but a very few? In the first place, many, (not a very few) posters on this board have solar panels on the roof. I can assure you that the combination of solar panels and PG&E TOU rates works out quite well. I recommend them highly, where feasible, for EV owners.
• astronomical peak-hour charges? Well, yes, summertime peak hours with E-9a (the whole house EV rate schedule) are about twice as high as E-1 (non-TOU) rates. But that's only half the year, and only 1/5 of the hours during that time. So 10% of the time you are paying twice as much. The other 90% of the time the E-9a rates are lower than E-1 rates. Yes, it's only slightly lower except during off-peak hours, but those cost 1/2 to 1/3 what you would be paying on E-1. And that's 45% of the time!

To repeat, 10% of the time you pay twice as much, and 45% of the time you pay a third to half as much. And you can do nearly all of your LEAF charging within that 45% period. So, unless you run your air conditioner, electric clothes dryer, pool pump, and electric range really heavily between 2 and 9 PM, Monday through Friday, From May through October, you can actually save money on E-9a.

Ray

 

[TomT]

I'm not on TOU so I charge when I get home or in the middle of the day at times... And no, the ROI for TOU is not there for me...

I dont agree with the assessment that folks will charge when they get home regardless of when off-peak rates are, or that the peak-demand on the system is when folks arrive home from work.

 

[Nubo]

I haven't given p4e's math a sanity check, but the whole purpose of TOU rates is to incent people to change their usage patterns. The PUC will be checking the utility's math when it reviews and approves (or dis-approves) a proposed rate structure.

Shifting energy use from on-peak to off-peak reduces the cost of adding new generating units to meet the on-peak load demands. So indeed, electricity consumers are going to be 'punished' for on-peak usage and 'rewarded' for off-peak usage. The net result is lower cost of electricity for consumers as a group, although not necessarily for individual consumers.

If the "stick" can't be avoided, then the result is NO load being shifted. For us, AC is a heavy load and not particularly discretionary. However, if I could catch a reasonable break on off-peak rates I would definitely shift discretionary use to off-peak. This would include car charging, electric dryer, dishwasher, some cooking, TV, etc...

The perfect is the enemy of the good. If the stick is too harsh, for many people it becomes unworkable, or at the least, risky. One can shift a useful amount of load but still get hit in the head by the "stick". If one can't avoid the stick, they don't change their behavior. If I can't make TOU work in my favor then there I might as well run everything at the time that is most convenient for me. If that somehow turns out to give the best results over the entire population, then so be it. But I suspect not.

Personally, I will still try to charge off-peak out of personal conviction. I don't expect that to be a widespread approach.

 

[Yodrak]

Both the carrot and the stick are constrained by the reality of the utility's costs and the savings that can potentially be realized, and by the rate of return that the PUC is willing to allow the utility.

Agreed that not everyone has the ability to shift usage so that the TOU rates save them money. Another way to look at this is that consumers should be paying what it costs to produce the electricity they consume, so people who consume at times when the cost of producing electricity is high should be paying more than people who consume at times when the cost is low. So, it's not only carrot and stick to encourage load shifting, there is also the concept of 'fairness' for the load that doesn't shift.

If the "stick" can't be avoided, then the result is NO load being shifted. For us, AC is a heavy load and not particularly discretionary. However, if I could catch a reasonable break on off-peak rates I would definitely shift discretionary use to off-peak. This would include car charging, electric dryer, dishwasher, some cooking, TV, etc...

The perfect is the enemy of the good. If the stick is too harsh, for many people it becomes unworkable, or at the least, risky. One can shift a useful amount of load but still get hit in the head by the "stick". If one can't avoid the stick, they don't change their behavior. If I can't make TOU work in my favor then there I might as well run everything at the time that is most convenient for me. If that somehow turns out to give the best results over the entire population, then so be it. But I suspect not.

Personally, I will still try to charge off-peak out of personal conviction. I don't expect that to be a widespread approach.

 

[Levenkay]

Personally, I will still try to charge off-peak out of personal conviction. I don't expect that to be a widespread approach.

I try to as well, but unfortunately, I'm using a Blink EVSE, and that hampers unattended charging.

 

[Nekota]

I'm on E9a since July of last year and my electric bill is up about $30 per month over E1 from last year. I charge at 1AM to 80% and drive about 900 miles per month which adds around 300 KWHr to the meter - all on the off peak rate. I don't have PV nor do I have AC and heat with gas. One disappointment with PG&E has been the lack of any realtime meter readings from the HAN capabilities of the smartmeter. I get hourly readings after a couple of days and I am pleased to be getting those since when I started on E9a in July the meter logging software did not support E9.

 

[planet4ever]

If the "stick" can't be avoided, then the result is NO load being shifted. For us, AC is a heavy load and not particularly discretionary. However, if I could catch a reasonable break on off-peak rates I would definitely shift discretionary use to off-peak. This would include car charging, electric dryer, dishwasher, some cooking, TV, etc...

Obviously, different families have different requirements, due to medical conditions, etc. But, in general, a climate like yours with average July/August highs under 90°F would make AC discretionary for many families. Where I grew up our average July/August highs were mid-nineties, and all we had was a swamp cooler. So, on that basis alone I would say that an AC requirement fails your "untenable for all but a very few customers" test.

But let's assume you do have valid reasons for high AC use (and, no, of course we don't expect you to disclose them, if so). For E-9 there are no peak hours at all on weekends, and in fact you can run the AC for half the current cost or less until 5 PM. For weekdays the peak rate doesn't start until 2 PM. If you run the AC heavily midday, so that you've cooled the house to, say, 65° by 2 PM, you might not need to run it much at all in the later afternoon. Remember, partial-peak rates with E-9a are lower than the standard E-1 rates. So long as you can hold your total peak use to not more than, say, twice your LEAF use you don't even need to worry about time-shifting other activities. In our home we do, at least, shift much of our laundry to weekends. We are on E-6 rather than E-9, but they are similar in that both are off-peak until 5 PM on weekends.

Ray

P.S. If your house isn't well insulated then my "pre-cooling" strategy won't work very well, but you can get a huge bang for the buck -- TOU or not -- by spending some money on insulation.

 

[copdoc]

... but the question is: if you paid the same rate after 8pm as you did before, would you still defer charging? Actually the real question is would Joe Public do that?

I do and I do, ... but I'm not Joe. On the other hand, Joe's not buying a Leaf: too much to learn.

 

[Yodrak]

I wasn't going to go there myself, but I agree with you and I like the way you expressed it. Somehow, humanity managed to survive, and even prosper, without air conditioning. Only roughly 30-35 year ago did the use of air conditioning really took off in the USA, and much of the world still does without it today.

Only for a relatively small portion of the population is air conditioning really essential for health and for life. But for those people, having and using air conditioning is very important indeed.

Obviously, different families have different requirements, due to medical conditions, etc. But, in general, a climate like yours with average July/August highs under 90°F would make AC discretionary for many families. Where I grew up our average July/August highs were mid-nineties, and all we had was a swamp cooler. So, on that basis alone I would say that an AC requirement fails your "untenable for all but a very few customers" test.

If the "stick" can't be avoided, then the result is NO load being shifted. For us, AC is a heavy load and not particularly discretionary. However, if I could catch a reasonable break on off-peak rates I would definitely shift discretionary use to off-peak. This would include car charging, electric dryer, dishwasher, some cooking, TV, etc...

 

[Nubo]

If the "stick" can't be avoided, then the result is NO load being shifted. For us, AC is a heavy load and not particularly discretionary. However, if I could catch a reasonable break on off-peak rates I would definitely shift discretionary use to off-peak. This would include car charging, electric dryer, dishwasher, some cooking, TV, etc...

Obviously, different families have different requirements, due to medical conditions, etc. But, in general, a climate like yours with average July/August highs under 90°F would make AC discretionary for many families. Where I grew up our average July/August highs were mid-nineties, and all we had was a swamp cooler. So, on that basis alone I would say that an AC requirement fails your "untenable for all but a very few customers" test.

But let's assume you do have valid reasons for high AC use (and, no, of course we don't expect you to disclose them, if so). For E-9 there are no peak hours at all on weekends, and in fact you can run the AC for half the current cost or less until 5 PM. For weekdays the peak rate doesn't start until 2 PM. If you run the AC heavily midday, so that you've cooled the house to, say, 65° by 2 PM, you might not need to run it much at all in the later afternoon. Remember, partial-peak rates with E-9a are lower than the standard E-1 rates. So long as you can hold your total peak use to not more than, say, twice your LEAF use you don't even need to worry about time-shifting other activities. In our home we do, at least, shift much of our laundry to weekends. We are on E-6 rather than E-9, but they are similar in that both are off-peak until 5 PM on weekends.

Ray

P.S. If your house isn't well insulated then my "pre-cooling" strategy won't work very well, but you can get a huge bang for the buck -- TOU or not -- by spending some money on insulation.

I can assure you that "average july/august highs under 90 degrees" is inaccurate for our particular location in the highly-variable Bay Area microclimates. Of course I do understand that it is ultimately discretionary but I appreciate your understanding. But the real issue is whether or not the general population can(or will) make discretionary changes to usage patterns. I still think my underlying point is valid -- why make a shift to off-peak a difficulty that few are willing to undertake? Instead of a stick and carrot, how about simply a smaller carrot? I don't expect the 3-cents/kWH or whatever the current super-saver rate is. Even a modest reduction in night-time rates could make a very big difference. A thousand people making the super-easy choice of setting their dishwashers to run after midnight would be more effective than the one family willing to sweat it out for TOU. This all becomes important when we consider what most of us hope to be a very big move to EVs. Charging at 6pm vs 12am is going to be a big deal. Why not have a structure where a majority of EV owners will naturally gravitate to the late-night charge with no further effort or inconvenience than setting a timer? With most of the region now served by Smart meters, it would be very simple. Instead we have a system where only the most pious are participating. The current structure concerns itself too much with virtue. More attention should be given to results, imho.

 

[smkettner]

Everyone should be on TOU rates IMHO. It is the most natural way to flatten the use curve and make people aware of peak time costs.