Why Leafs sell better in some communities than others

[DeaneG]

I recently heard from my electric utility (PG&E) that the Cupertino/Los Altos area has the highest density of Leafs in their service area, which is most of northern CA.

I think I just realized why: of course we have a high concentration of tech professionals, but more to the point: Highway 85's five-lane-to-two lane merge at its intersection with 280. The carpool lane is the only way to avoid 10 minutes panic-stopped on a freeway between 7:30 and 9am.

At least that's what sealed the deal for me. Now I zoom past all the stationary Cayenne Turbos and S550s. Such a relief.

I wonder if a similar freeway bottleneck has directly driven sales in other locations: around the 405 in west LA, for example.

 

[TomT]

I drive that corridor regularly and have not seen anything to indicate that such is the case here...

Santa Monica used to be the Prius capital of the world but that doesn't seem to be so much the case anymore... A couple of folks I know traded in their Priuses on a non-hybrid when the stickers expired explaining that, without the stickers, the Prius no longer held as much interest for them since gas cars MPG had continued to improve to the point that the mileage difference was not nearly as much of a consideration, and that they wanted more of a "real car" because of that...

I wonder if a similar freeway bottleneck has directly driven sales in other locations: around the 405 in west LA, for example.

 

[LakeLeaf]

I don't know if bottleneck avoidance is a major selling point, but certainly if you are going to drive a Leaf you would like to travel over a road course that is designed to give you fairly repeatable commute times. It sounds like you have found such a situation, where the car allows you to access certain pavement to give you a fairly consistent drive time - and of course one that is well within the range of the car.

 

[N1ghtrider]

There are two express lanes on I-95 in Miami for about a 10-mile stretch that allow drivers to get around the worst of brutal traffic, but those are open for free to ordinary hybrids and carpool vehicles, so no one would buy a Leaf for that reason only.

 

[Pipcecil]

we have tried to account for the density for plug-ins at my work. Some of the trends seem predictable, others have not (so far - the sample "population" is small at the moment). The basis was the environmentally minded, the tech minded, the older generation, the weathier, and the less traveled would buy more. While this is apparent from a wholesale on plug-ins, it doesn't describe the volt/leaf breakdown we found:

In the center of the cities we though would see more leafs, easier access to transit (shorter trips) and easier access to all surrounding areas (shorter trips). In addition the more weathier live near downtown and their is a greater concentration of environmentalist. Their the volt outnumbers leafs almost 2 to 1! In the outskirt suburban and even ruralish areas were long cross town commutes would be needed, cheaper housing, more conservative type crowds, the leaf has a greater usage with almost opposite results. Some trends are more difficult to follow and surprising!

 

[thankyouOB]

we have tried to account for the density for plug-ins at my work. Some of the trends seem predictable, others have not (so far - the sample "population" is small at the moment). The basis was the environmentally minded, the tech minded, the older generation, the weathier, and the less traveled would buy more. While this is apparent from a wholesale on plug-ins, it doesn't describe the volt/leaf breakdown we found:

In the center of the cities we though would see more leafs, easier access to transit (shorter trips) and easier access to all surrounding areas (shorter trips). In addition the more weathier live near downtown and their is a greater concentration of environmentalist. Their the volt outnumbers leafs almost 2 to 1! In the outskirt suburban and even ruralish areas were long cross town commutes would be needed, cheaper housing, more conservative type crowds, the leaf has a greater usage with almost opposite results. Some trends are more difficult to follow and surprising!

I dont know where you live, but, for many locales, you appear (in the second graf) to be making generalizations and assumptions about demographics (wealth, politics) tied to residence that are erroneous.

 

[smkettner]

Even a random event will have clusters of concentration.

 

[DougMarker]

How about this:
People expect an electric car to be an underpowered golf cart. Maybe when they see one, and get a ride in one, they are more likely to buy. So early adopters are acting as unpaid salespeople. This could cause clusters.

 

[Nubo]

I recently heard from my electric utility (PG&E) that the Cupertino/Los Altos area has the highest density of Leafs in their service area, which is most of northern CA....

High concentration of early adopters. Since Apple doesn't make a car, the LEAF is as close as it gets (or Tesla if you are one of the lucky few to have a roadster).

 

[tps]

How about this:
People expect an electric car to be an underpowered golf cart. Maybe when they see one, and get a ride in one, they are more likely to buy. So early adopters are acting as unpaid salespeople. This could cause clusters.

+1 I call myself a LEAF evangelist.

 

[Herm]

High concentration of early adopters. Since Apple doesn't make a car, the LEAF is as close as it gets (or Tesla if you are one of the lucky few to have a roadster).

Maybe Apple should work out a logo deal with white iMievs

 

[Fabio]

High Education + mixed ethnicity neighborhoods tend to be liberal, while High Education + low ethnic mix tend to be conservative (according to voting records).
Unfortunately those surveys don't distinguish between a degree from Stanford, vs. one from CBN U...

In the outskirt suburban and even ruralish areas were long cross town commutes would be needed, cheaper housing, more conservative type crowds, the leaf has a greater usage with almost opposite results. Some trends are more difficult to follow and surprising!

I dont know where you live, but, for many locales, you appear (in the second graf) to be making generalizations and assumptions about demographics (wealth, politics) tied to residence that are erroneous.[/quote]

 

[racerkit]

I recently heard from my electric utility (PG&E) that the Cupertino/Los Altos area has the highest density of Leafs in their service area, which is most of northern CA.

I think I just realized why: of course we have a high concentration of tech professionals, but more to the point: Highway 85's five-lane-to-two lane merge at its intersection with 280. The carpool lane is the only way to avoid 10 minutes panic-stopped on a freeway between 7:30 and 9am.

At least that's what sealed the deal for me. Now I zoom past all the stationary Cayenne Turbos and S550s. Such a relief.

I wonder if a similar freeway bottleneck has directly driven sales in other locations: around the 405 in west LA, for example.

On HWY 101 carpool lane stretch between Redwood city and Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley), I counted average about 10-12 Leafs traveling on the opposite direction every morning during carpool hour. This is just during the 20min drive. I also think there about same amount traveling along same direct as I am during the same time slot. So at a particular 20min interval during carpool hours, there are 20-24 Leafs on Hwy101. That amounts to 200 Leafs roughly everyday during 2hr carpool commute.

 

[Pipcecil]

I dont know where you live, but, for many locales, you appear (in the second graf) to be making generalizations and assumptions about demographics (wealth, politics) tied to residence that are erroneous.

Acutally we used pretty aggressive demographics. Our demographic subset takes the basic 2010 census and the economic factors from the 2009 american commuty survey. We then merge the data with demographic data from the assocated cities with growth rates, land cost, etc. We also do an actual survey to help confirm data in specific areas were the population my have a greater dynamic change. Finally we filter the data using a very advanced algorithum for population distribution and growth patterns to project growth to 2040. The model used is the latest and greatest developed by UT's social science department and human geography.

So these "general assuptions" were actually about as actual as you can get based on a regional model for modeling demographic profiles. And using that demographic set and compare to the distribution of leafs versus volts, found some variable odd trends based on the target markets for each vehicle. I will caveat that the sample size is very small. Only 250 owners of leafs and volts is not a large enough sample size to discern trends in the data. You need slightly over 1000 to hit the magic number. But, with that limitation this was the result of the findings.