What will a 2011 leaf be worth in 2019?

[ishiyakazuo]

BTW, if you want to get the same benefit, by buying a 2011 LEAF today, I'd recommend you pay ~$11-12k for a very clean low-mileage SL with a DC port, rather than a ~$9,000 beater.

Agreed... most of the ones I've seen for $9k have terrible battery degradation, relatively high mileage, or both. You should be able to find one that had its previous life in a northern state (i.e. battery still in good shape) and low mileage in that price range.

I saw one pristine condition with seat heaters, no major battery degradation, reasonable mileage in NC just a month back for $8900 and another member on this forum beat me to buying it. It spent it's whole life in NC, no southern exposure.

Charlotte still has an aging factor > 1, and Raleigh's is exactly 1, according to the capacity wiki. If it's not missing a bar, it probably will be really soon if it was driven much at all... it's expected to drop a bar in about 3 years.

 

[Valdemar]

But in 2019, rather than pay $3000 for an old 2011 leaf and $6000 for a new battery for $9000 total, wouldn't buyers rather pay $9000 for a 4-year old 2015 leaf with lizard battery?

It is possible while not likely that Nissan will offer a bigger battery upgrade for older Leafs, with that a '11 Leaf with a dying pack may be a more interesting proposition than a '15 whose Lizard battery is still going strong.

 

[nosuchthing]

The 3.3 charger and Nissan's disinterest limits '11 Leaf's future resale value. Even though, ironically, as the battery shrunk, it charged up faster (you know, missing 25 miles from its original capacity) and the whole range issue became ridiculous.

To this day I celebrate the fact I resisted the urge to put leather into that car! It's like finding 1000 bucks on the sidewalk.

How little did we know then about '11 Leaf... Now, that the word is out, who would pay a dime for it when in 2019 EVs will be pushing 350-400 mile range.

 

[Valdemar]

The 3.3 charger and Nissan's disinterest limits '11 Leaf's future resale value. Even though, ironically, as the battery shrunk, it charged up faster (you know, missing 25 miles from its original capacity) and the whole range issue became ridiculous.

To this day I celebrate the fact I resisted the urge to put leather into that car! It's like finding 1000 bucks on the sidewalk.

How little did we know then about '11 Leaf... Now, that the word is out, who would pay a dime for it when in 2019 EVs will be pushing 350-400 mile range.

I wouldn't make such bold statements not backed up by any serious data. After more than 4 years no revolution has happened, all we have is vaporware at best. If we get a more or less affordable 150 mile EV by 2019 it'll already be a success.

I can count times when I could benefit from a more powerful charger by using just fingers on my hands after 3.5 years, 10 hours overnight gives you 120 miles which is plenty, for other situations there's QC.

 

[nosuchthing]

Valdemar, we're talking 2019 here. Think Moore's Law...

 

[Valdemar]

Valdemar, we're talking 2019 here. Think Moore's Law...

At this point it should already be obvious that Moore's Law doesn't apply to EVs.

 

[JimSouCal]

To this day I celebrate the fact I resisted the urge to put leather into that car! It's like finding 1000 bucks on the sidewalk.

Every day I drive my 2011 LEAF with leather pleases me--the filth that lands in cloth car seats from my realm of dust and sweat would be pretty grubby by now. The car will meet 95% of my needs with a 50% battery. I just hope the rest of the car holds up, like the wiper motors and washer, and window switches, and major components that are expensive. To each our own... I will keep the LEAF in my collection till it falls apart.

 

[cwerdna]

Valdemar, we're talking 2019 here. Think Moore's Law...

At this point it should already be obvious that Moore's Law doesn't apply to EVs.

Yep.

 

[dhanson865]

Agreed... most of the ones I've seen for $9k have terrible battery degradation, relatively high mileage, or both. You should be able to find one that had its previous life in a northern state (i.e. battery still in good shape) and low mileage in that price range.

I saw one pristine condition with seat heaters, no major battery degradation, reasonable mileage in NC just a month back for $8900 and another member on this forum beat me to buying it. It spent it's whole life in NC, no southern exposure.

Charlotte still has an aging factor > 1, and Raleigh's is exactly 1, according to the capacity wiki. If it's not missing a bar, it probably will be really soon if it was driven much at all... it's expected to drop a bar in about 3 years.

oh, wow, I didn't know you considered 1 bar lost "terrible battery degradation".

If it were a 3 bar loser for $8900 I'd agree you could buy one with a better condition.

 

[dhanson865]

Valdemar, we're talking 2019 here. Think Moore's Law...

At this point it should already be obvious that Moore's Law doesn't apply to EVs.

There is a Moore's Low equivalent for batteries, its just the rate is different.

Moore's law was the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubled every 18-24 months. Note it said transistors not speed, calculating power, price, etcetera.

For battery development we need to change that to some other metric doubles by some other time. And we need a new name.

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period. You could argue other values.

http://longtailpipe.com/2013/04/06/there-is-moores-law-for-batteries-its/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://my.teslamotors.com/fr_CA/forum/forums/moores-law-how-will-it-apply-batteries-or-battery-technology" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People look at EVs that keep the same battery capacity for several years at a time and assume that means there was no improvement in the mean time. The reality is it's just too expensive to update the cars every 6-12 months like you can a cell phone or a laptop. The improvements are happening at the factory making the batteries and they'll come to the car the next time there is a refresh.

 

[Valdemar]

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period. You could argue other values.

That's fine, but hardly enough to see a 350-400 mile EV for the masses in 2019.

 

[nosuchthing]

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period.

Well...2011 + 7 = 2018

That's 2019 Tesla with 450/500-mile range right there, is it not?

 

[Valdemar]

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period.

Well...2011 + 7 = 2018

That's 2019 Tesla with 450/500-mile range right there, is it not?

And how is this relevant to the subject of this thread?

 

[edatoakrun]

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period.

Well...2011 + 7 = 2018

That's 2019 Tesla with 450/500-mile range right there, is it not?

And how is this relevant to the subject of this thread?

Maybe he's trying to say that in 2019, a 2012 Tesla S will be worth about the same as a 2011 LEAF...?

 

[Valdemar]

Maybe, considering a typical Tesla repair bill will be in mid to high 4 digits this might actually be true.

 

[mbender]

In addition to a new name for "Moore's Law" for batteries, I think we also need a new name for related 'vaporware'. (i.e., because the connotations of vapor are more fitting for gasoline). I'll start: how about electrostatic aurora-ware?

Oh, and what is the "subject" of this thread, anyway? Looks like it was once called "moore's law for batteries", in which case the 2011+7 comment was entirely relevant! (And even with the title change, the discussion had obviously drifted to whoever's law for batteries, so it was still relevant.)

How little did we know then about '11 Leaf... Now, that the word is out, who would pay a dime for it when in 2019 EVs will be pushing 350-400 mile range.

I wouldn't make such bold statements not backed up by any serious data. After more than 4 years no revolution has happened, all we have is vaporware at best. If we get a more or less affordable 150 mile EV by 2019 it'll already be a success.

Valdemar, we're talking 2019 here. Think Moore's Law...

At this point it should already be obvious that Moore's Law doesn't apply to EVs.

There is a Moore's Low equivalent for batteries, its just the rate is different.
[...]
For battery development we need to change that to some other metric doubles by some other time. And we need a new name.

Right now Tesla is quoting 7 years for the doubling period. You could argue other values.

 

[davewill]

I see no reason to think that battery capacity vs. size, in a mass-market vehicle, can double in any reasonable time frame, certainly not by 2019. Now maybe battery capacity vs. price can double, but that hard to judge since we don't know what the price of the battery was in 2011. I'm personally hoping they will end up worth nothing as that will mean there are more compelling choices available.

 

[nosuchthing]

...since we don't know what the price of the battery was in 2011...

That is not entirely so. I still recall when the first Model S's bricked and the owners were horrified to find out that the replacement was going to set them back 30 grand and was not covered by warranty. The bricking has since subsided, but that 30k bill incurred by the Model S owners who let the battery drain stayed with me for good.

And of course we all know the Leaf battery replacement story real well...

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Charlotte still has an aging factor > 1, and Raleigh's is exactly 1, according to the capacity wiki. If it's not missing a bar, it probably will be really soon if it was driven much at all... it's expected to drop a bar in about 3 years.

oh, wow, I didn't know you considered 1 bar lost "terrible battery degradation".

If it were a 3 bar loser for $8900 I'd agree you could buy one with a better condition.

Oh, I totally agree with you that's a deal -- I was just saying that NC is kind of in the middle of what one would consider northern or southern. (In other words, "southern" is relative)

 

[minispeed]

It seems they are currently going for $9000 now. What is to be expected and why?

(trying to estimate cost of ownership)

To get this post back on topic I'll say it'll be worth $3000 if the battery is in good shape.

I've found that $3000 is the level off price of most cars that earn a reputation of being reliable. Doesn't matter how old they get if they aren't super high millage and can pass a safety they tend to hold $3000 for a long time. Look at old civics, rav 4, crv, golfs, camry, accord. Find an add for one that has already passed needed safety checks for under $3000 in the prime used car times and they sell like hot cakes. I tried buying an old civic hatch or vw golf around that price and almost every add I replied to it was sold. I got a saab wagon instead.

I think the limited range and the BEV newness to the type of buyers looking at sub $5000 cars will get it down to $3000 a bit quicker than other cars but that it will probably stay there for a while.