Used LEAF price future predictions

[Deleted member 9549]

2013 LEAFs are running $9-14k from what I've seen. The 100+ mile 2016 LEAF is out now, but in short supply. The 200+ mile Bolt is coming out end of the year and I'm convinced that Nissan will announce the LEAF 2.0 before then with its 200+ mile range. Gas prices are forecast to stay low although they did a little bump up last week. Tesla is revealing the Model 3 at the end of this month.

What are the predictions for the used car value for a 2013 LEAF in three years. Say in 2019, with roughly 72,000 miles on it.

How much would such a LEAF be worth?
How much battery life do you think would be left assuming the car today has 91% SOH?
Do you think Nissan will ever offer a bigger battery for the first generation LEAFs?
Do you think a 3rd party will offer a bigger battery?
Will replacement battery prices come down to extend the life of the car or is it destined for the crusher?

 

[WetEV]

2013 LEAFs are running $9-14k from what I've seen. The 100+ mile 2016 LEAF is out now, but in short supply. The 200+ mile Bolt is coming out end of the year and I'm convinced that Nissan will announce the LEAF 2.0 before then with its 200+ mile range. Gas prices are forecast to stay low although they did a little bump up last week. Tesla is revealing the Model 3 at the end of this month.

What are the predictions for the used car value for a 2013 LEAF in three years. Say in 2019, with roughly 72,000 miles on it.

How much would such a LEAF be worth?
How much battery life do you think would be left assuming the car today has 91% SOH?
Do you think Nissan will ever offer a bigger battery for the first generation LEAFs?
Do you think a 3rd party will offer a bigger battery?
Will replacement battery prices come down to extend the life of the car or is it destined for the crusher?

Impossible to say. Main issue would be gasoline prices. $4+ gasoline, and Leafs will be valuable, even 6 year old ones. Gasoline or oil price projections, if printed out, are usable as fire starters or litter box liners. Don't bother reading them, the price of gasoline (or oil) isn't very predictable. A tiny difference in supply or demand can make the price spike or plummet.

Battery condition depends a lot on where. I'd expect a Leaf in Bellingham to still have over 70% on the original battery. In Arizona, might be on third battery.

I doubt if Nissan will offer a bigger battery. Nissan would rather sell cars.

A third party might, if the gasoline price is high enough.

Extending the life of the car depends on a lot of factors, but mostly on gasoline price. Expensive gasoline makes keeping electrics running profitable.

 

[Reddy]

Plan on zero, then be happy when they are around $3-$5k.

 

[JeremyW]

Eventually the parts like the motor and battery will set a floor for use in a conversion car.

I've been watching as Gen 1 Honda Insight owners attempt to take advantage of parts prices and use a bit less than a half pack in their cars along with a new battery/motor controller. We've seen someone post on here using their own inverter with a leaf motor. The DC/DC and charger of the early models are probably not worth using on their own.

I say $2k+ has to be the floor. Otherwise, these cars are going to get gutted for their parts and we will see a rise in conversions, which might not be a bad thing.

 

[tkdbrusco]

Assuming that Nissan continues to sell replacement packs for $5500 ($6K with installation), I'd say the floor is about $3-5K on the car. However there are a few things that could be done that would bring those prices up somewhat...

1. They drop the price of the replacement packs
2. They offer the 30kwh pack as a replacement option
3. Someone starts selling cheaper 3rd party packs
4. The federal tax credit runs out for almost everyone and effective new car prices rise
5. Gas prices go back up

If any of these happen you will see an increase in prices. At a certain point the price becomes so low that the long term reliability of the car and the ability to replace the battery becomes a win/win.

 

[Reddy]

Well, we have a member who'd take $4500 for a 2011. That should give you an estimate:
http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=19967&start=160#p454921