TSLA corporate outlook

[palmermd]

Holy cow. What's going on?

Cybertruck
Roadster
GF 3
GF 4
Deliverys 2019

All good news aligning at the same time.

S - model s
3 - Model 3
X - Model X
Y - Model Y

C - Cybertruck
A - ATV
R - Roadster
S - Semi

SEXY CARS for the win!

 

[jlv]

Holy cow. What's going on?

Probably Tesla (TSLA) close to all-time high on EV tax credit talk

 

[dgpcolorado]

Holy cow. What's going on?

I saw this:

Tesla’s stock zooms toward two-year high on China factory optimism

Crazy price regardless of the cause. Momentum stocks move in mysterious ways having nothing to do with fundamental valuation.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

This may have also played into the story to some degree:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/814270/epa-porsche-taycan-turbo-range/

That's a big shortfall. Certainly could cause people to reassess whether this stuff is as easy as it looks wrt legacy manufacturers competing with Tesla.

 

[jlv]

This list for just 2019 shows what the value of OTA updates looks like.
(from https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/wiki/softwareupdates#wiki_2019_tesla_vehicle_software_updates)

For those who don't know, the 2nd number is the week number of the build.

OTOH, the number of games released has been silly.

 

[dgpcolorado]

This list for just 2019 shows what the value of OTA updates looks like.
(from https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/wiki/softwareupdates#wiki_2019_tesla_vehicle_software_updates)

...

OTOH, the number of games released has been silly.

The downside of the updates is what they take away from older cars. Version 9 removed the ability of the Model S/X to display any two windows of the driver's choosing. Now the map is always up and the media player defaults to up when the car is turned on. I don't mind since I drive with satellite view up anyway but a lot of people are annoyed at the loss of function of the screen from earlier versions.

Version 10 removed the button that allows cars with the older version TPMS (10/2014 and before) to reset the system when tires/valves are changed, something that those of us who use separate wheels for snow tires do several times a year. Now we get an error message that the TPMS system isn't working. It has to be reset at a service center (at a cost) each time tires are changed (for the record: I live 300 miles, and a whole lot of mountains, away from the nearest service center). Or we just live with it and be sure to check the air in our tires regularly because TPMS is useless. Why take away a useful function such as the TPMS reset button? Tesla only cares about newer cars that have the automatic reset.

A recent update, 2019.40.2.1 drastically reduced regen for cool batteries. Now when the battery is below about 8-10ºC, regen is zero until it warms up, which takes a long time. There was no mention of this in the release notes, regen was just gone with a warning message on the IC. If this change was done to protect the battery from plating when cold, fine. But at least let us know why in the release notes!

There are many other such examples, such as greatly slowing down Supercharging speeds on older cars. When it comes to software updates, Tesla giveth and Tesla taketh away. And you never know which it will be, although for those of us with older cars it is usually the latter.

My 2¢.

 

[jlv]

I think all the complaints about v9 and the loss of two windows were silly and overblown. More important problem was the slower rendering for cars with the older center displays (MCU1, like my S).

I have noticed the regen issue -- but I wonder if it's more a matter of the battery heater not running as much.

Tesla giveth and Tesla taketh away.

I do agree.

 

[GRA]

ABG:

Tesla shares hit record high, close to Musk's $420 take-private offer
Tesla's market capitalization of $74 billion is way higher than Ford or GM

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/12/21/tesla-record-high-share-price-market-cap/

Shares of Tesla hit a fresh record high for the third straight session on Friday, and were just $7 shy from the $420 per share price at which founder Elon Musk sought to take the electric carmaker private more than a year ago.

The recent run-up is a stunning turnaround for the shares, triggered by a rare quarterly profit in October, news of production ramp-up in its China factory and upbeat early deposits for its recently launched electric pickup truck.
ADVERTISEMENT

The shares have climbed about 40% since the earnings. At roughly $74 billion, the company's market capitalization tops by about $20 billion that of the biggest U.S. automaker by production, General Motors, and is nearly twice that of rival Ford. . . .

Wall Street remains divided, with 13 brokerages recommending "sell" or lower, and 11 rating the stock "buy" or higher. Nine have a "hold" rating.

• "Given the clash between Elon Musk's long-term goals/vision and the near-term fundamentals, Tesla stock is the ultimate sentiment pendulum," analysts at RBC Capital Markets wrote on Friday, hiking its price target by $70 to $290.

RBC is the 10th brokerage to boost its price target in the last 10 days, according to Refinitiv data.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...
I have noticed the regen issue -- but I wonder if it's more a matter of the battery heater not running as much.
...

The regen change is quite real. I've seen zero regen with a cool, 2-4ºC, battery and that never happened before (I have lots of winter experience, of course). The battery heater seems to be working as usual. One change reported by others is that preconditioning the car no longer turns on the battery heater as it used to do. That leaves charging right before leaving as the only way to recover some regen when starting in cool conditions.

There are also reports that 2019.40.2.3 returns some regen on a cool battery. That seems to be the case for my car but I can't be sure yet.

This is a picture showing the battery heater still on 5.6 miles into a trip in cold weather:

^ Car in neutral, HVAC off, battery at 44% after driving uphill for three miles then a very steep downhill run for two miles (it isn't flat here). Regen has recovered from zero starting out to perhaps 12kW, thanks to the battery heating.


Tesla software updates can be a mixed blessing.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I figured that TSLA was rather richly priced at $200 and $300 but today it is at $444/share. Go figure, momentum stocks can be pretty bizarre and the short positions have dropped a huge amount as short sellers got squeezed out.

A current news report:

Musk Defies Skeptics, Meets Tesla Delivery Goal; Shares Hit Record

Gigafactory 3 in China going from groundbreaking to delivery of cars (Model 3) in one year boggles my mind. That won't happen with the Berlin Gigafactory 4, I presume.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I figured that TSLA was rather richly priced at $200 and $300 but today it is at $444/share. Go figure, momentum stocks can be pretty bizarre and the short positions have dropped a huge amount as short sellers got squeezed out.

A current news report:

Musk Defies Skeptics, Meets Tesla Delivery Goal; Shares Hit Record

Gigafactory 3 in China going from groundbreaking to delivery of cars (Model 3) in one year boggles my mind. That won't happen with the Berlin Gigafactory 4, I presume.

Unless Tesla has some major issue I expect this price to double easily, Q1 may be rough but then things will be amazing. Anyone that has followed Tesla closely and not the FUD and had some money to invest is likely in very nice shape now.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Unless Tesla has some major issue I expect this price to double easily, Q1 may be rough but then things will be amazing. Anyone that has followed Tesla closely and not the FUD and had some money to invest is likely in very nice shape now.

I question the use of the word "invest" with regard to TSLA. Such stocks are speculations not investments in my view (I've been living entirely off of savings and investments for more than two decades, so I have some experience).

It certainly is possible that Tesla will grow into its stock price eventually but by any reasonable valuation on fundamentals it is rather richly priced, to put it mildly. Nevertheless, i own a few shares as a speculation, just for fun.

 

[sparky]

With TSLA posting ATH numbers and Tesla seemingly on track for a ~500K 2020 production level, it continually amazes me how flaccid the response has been from legacy car-makers. These guys were always going to crush Tesla "next year".
Here we are. Tesla’s Model 3 Is the Only EV Doing Real Volume in the U.S
Without pickups and SUVs, Ford, GM and Chrysler would be worthless. IMO, those vehicles won't survive the decade in their present polluting, gas-guzzling form. Nissan, pathetic. Toyota, Honda, absent. VW may be coming to life but who else is going to offer something competitive in significant numbers?

 

[EVDRIVER]

Unless Tesla has some major issue I expect this price to double easily, Q1 may be rough but then things will be amazing. Anyone that has followed Tesla closely and not the FUD and had some money to invest is likely in very nice shape now.

I question the use of the word "invest" with regard to TSLA. Such stocks are speculations not investments in my view (I've been living entirely off of savings and investments for more than two decades, so I have some experience).

It certainly is possible that Tesla will grow into its stock price eventually but by any reasonable valuation on fundamentals it is rather richly priced, to put it mildly. Nevertheless, i own a few shares as a speculation, just for fun.

It's not speculation if you do research vs skim headlines and FUD. I follow Tesla deeply and none of the stock swings are a surprise. Anyone trying to make a quick buck is not investing. I have swing traded with success but I have long term shares and wish I bought more. People that look at Tesla as a car company are not investors and those on the other side like TESLAQ are quite frankly not seated in reality. I have some huge operational and management issues with Tesla but I know where they are headed and the associated risks. Tesla's biggest issue is FUD and strategic funded attacks that would have destroyed other car companies. Should they execute to plan the stock can easily be 10X its price today.

 

[EVDRIVER]

With TSLA posting ATH numbers and Tesla seemingly on track for a ~500K 2020 production level, it continually amazes me how flaccid the response has been from legacy car-makers. These guys were always going to crush Tesla "next year".
Here we are. Tesla’s Model 3 Is the Only EV Doing Real Volume in the U.S
Without pickups and SUVs, Ford, GM and Chrysler would be worthless. IMO, those vehicles won't survive the decade in their present polluting, gas-guzzling form. Nissan, pathetic. Toyota, Honda, absent. VW may be coming to life but who else is going to offer something competitive in significant numbers?

This should kill Tesla:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-mercedes-benz-eqc-flops-germany/

 

[Nubo]

The regen change is quite real. I've seen zero regen with a cool, 2-4ºC, battery and that never happened before (I have lots of winter experience, of course). The battery heater seems to be working as usual. One change reported by others is that preconditioning the car no longer turns on the battery heater as it used to do. That leaves charging right before leaving as the only way to recover some regen when starting in cool conditions.

There are also reports that 2019.40.2.3 returns some regen on a cool battery. That seems to be the case for my car but I can't be sure yet.
...
Tesla software updates can be a mixed blessing.

Just as with computer OS updates. Unless the update has a fix for an urgent problem you have, it's wise to wait and see how it performs in the field before jumping in. And of course always have a fallback path. Is it possible to revert the Tesla to a previous release if you don't like the changes?

 

[EVDRIVER]

The regen change is quite real. I've seen zero regen with a cool, 2-4ºC, battery and that never happened before (I have lots of winter experience, of course). The battery heater seems to be working as usual. One change reported by others is that preconditioning the car no longer turns on the battery heater as it used to do. That leaves charging right before leaving as the only way to recover some regen when starting in cool conditions.

There are also reports that 2019.40.2.3 returns some regen on a cool battery. That seems to be the case for my car but I can't be sure yet.
...
Tesla software updates can be a mixed blessing.

Just as with computer OS updates. Unless the update has a fix for an urgent problem you have, it's wise to wait and see how it performs in the field before jumping in. And of course always have a fallback path. Is it possible to revert the Tesla to a previous release if you don't like the changes?

It can be done but I don't know if Tesla offers this option, it is not a user defined option.

 

[DaveEV]

Gigafactory 3 in China going from groundbreaking to delivery of cars (Model 3) in one year boggles my mind. That won't happen with the Berlin Gigafactory 4, I presume.

It'll take a bit longer. But not much as they are targeting 2021 for first vehicle deliveries. Clearing the area for old munitions will slow things down, but the government appears to be very keen to show that they can compete with China so they are pulling out all the stops.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Just as with computer OS updates. Unless the update has a fix for an urgent problem you have, it's wise to wait and see how it performs in the field before jumping in. And of course always have a fallback path. Is it possible to revert the Tesla to a previous release if you don't like the changes?

No, Tesla won't allow reverting to earlier versions, to the considerable annoyance of those with cars that have been nerfed by an update. The only way to get back to an older version would be to consult a tech wizard who has the ability to root the car and has access to an older version. I'm aware of a few people who could do that but don't know if they hire it out — haven't really looked into it.

There is a gradually increasing industry of people doing tech workarounds for Model S/X problems (the 3 is new enough that it doesn't have many major problems reported thus far, so far as I am aware). For example, The MCU1 (Media Control Unit version 1 — the main screen) has a tendency to die because Tesla software causes unnecessary writes to the eMMC chip. No MCU and the car is pretty much dead — you can drive it but no HVAC, audio and no charging if a timer was set. The service center replacement of the MCU is quite expensive (they are all refurb units nowadays) for out-of-warranty cars. There are several people who are doing proactive eMMC chip replacements to prevent MCU failure, for a price. [Tesla has reportedly reduced the unneeded logging that kills the eMMC chip but when, and how effectively, is unclear.]

The drastic reduction of regen with a cool — basically anything below 25ºC — battery, mentioned upthread, was likely done to preserve batteries. I don't have a problem with that. If I really want more of my cool weather regen back I can charge my car for an hour or two before leaving home, although that won't work when parked away from charging. However, some people are pretty irritated at losing their single pedal driving for much of the year. As I said before, Tesla software updates are a mixed bag.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

holy cow