johnlocke said:
gcrouse said:
johnlocke said:
Losing market share is almost inevitable. Doesn't mean that the company doesn't continue to grow. 70% of a billion dollar pie is still better than 100% of a hundred million dollar pie. In any market that's newly created, the creators start with the majority of the market then others join in as the market expands. Sometimes those early leaders fall to the wayside as others innovate. Other times the early leaders never falter and their competitors remain also rans. Tesla will open two new factories this year and effectively double their output. They are still likely going to be production constrained for the next couple of years. My guess is that Elon will open a factory in India next and one in England as well. VW will compete in Europe, GM and Ford in the US, and host of companies in Asia. Tesla will still sell all the cars they can produce even as they lose market share.
Losing market share is to be expected for sure, but the stock is way, way overvalued. I said it elsewhere, but Tesla either needs to keep having a tech edge, fix build quality, and probably expand it's physical presence of stores in order to keep a lead - otherwise i think it'll look a lot like AMC did overtime.
As Tesla sits now - the stock is massively overvalued and there's nothing pointing towards a huge competitive edge in the future.
1. Full Self Driving without a change to include LIDAR isn't going to happen. It's a $3k SAE L2 automation package and $7-9k of vaporware. So far Mercedes is the only manufacturer to crack SAE3 automation. Tesla is going to have a lot of people asking questions about the cash they dropped when other OEMs start offering the real deal in the US.
2. Tesla has been offering pretty much the same vehicles for awhile now and new models like Cybertruck are to date - vaporware. For me it's a tough sell to believe that Cybertruck is going to be a standout hit if it's last to the market offering little that other trucks aren't. Tesla's offerings are going to get stagnant over the next 5 years as other companies introduce variety.
I don't doubt they'll sell everything they can make through 2025, but past that as everyone else ramps up production what makes a Tesla more compelling than another vehicle at that point?
Keep in mind, this is a company that almost went bankrupt multiple times in a boom market selling every vehicle it made then too and relied on capital infusion from grandiose and unfulfilled claims like having one million robo-taxis on the road and the latest laughable SAE Level 4 to come out this year.
Tesla's tech edge is it's vertical integration and battery tech. Secondary is the giga-factory concept and build speed for it's construction. Nobody else builds a factory in one year's time. Don't know why you think Tesla needs Lidar since they still have the most advanced self-drive on the market and installed in the most vehicles. If and when somebody comes up with a more advanced system, installs it in a production vehicle, and releases it for use then we can talk abut it again.
Tesla is ranked dead last in the autonomous driving sector by Guidehouse Insights.
https://mobile.twitter.com/vzach/status/1391655560999800833
There's a common feature on those leading company's systems - LIDAR. Pretty sure those systems aren't confusing the moon for traffic lights yet. I already mentioned it - Mercedes-Benz has been the first to hit SAE3 Level 3 Automation in Germany. (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.caranddriver.com/news/amp38475565/mercedes-drive-pilot-autonomous-germany/)
That is objectively better than Tesla's SAE Level 2 system. Calling something "Full Self Driving" does not make it an SAE Level 5 Autonomous Driving system.
TuSimple, for example is a company doing actual autonomous vehicle testing - (https://www.google.com/amp/s/techcrunch.com/2021/12/29/tusimple-completes-its-first-driverless-autonomous-truck-run-on-public-roads/amp/)
I'm not entirely sure what you mean by vertical integration with Tesla since they - like most of the automotive industry have hundreds of suppliers. (https://csimarket.com/stocks/suppliers_glance.php?code=TSLA). My idea of a world class vertically integrated company is more along the lines of Almarai based out of Saudi Arabia. (different industry altogether).
Sure, Tesla has the lead in battery tech and drivetrain efficiency overall still - there's no doubt about it - but today's lead does not guarantee tomorrow's edge. As of today, nobody can tell precisely whose future battery tech will be the best.
What precisely about the Gigafactory/which Gigafactory is a game changer?
Above all else - Tesla has to fix their spotty build quality. It's pretty well known and as competition builds - build quality will matter, especially with an aging product line with no real new innovations.
The Model S has very real competition with the launch of the Lucid Air - notably boasting over 500 miles of range with some models.
Model X/Y face serious competition from Mach-E, EV6, Ioniq 5, ID.4, XC40, e-Tron, etc.
It's even notable that the Bolt as dowdy as it was managed to have GM hit their 200,000 vehicle mark a couple quarters after Tesla, and the Model 3 is actually impressive to look at and from a specs perspective. Obviously the Bolt is pretty tarnished now - but the Bolt shows range and price point combo from well known brands can and will compete - especially considering less than 5% of people buy cars fully online currently.
Of their current product line - when they don't come with build defects and less the hype over the FSD vaporware, their still among the best EVs on the market, but for how long?
Keep in mind, Cybertruck was announced in 2019 and is to date, vaporware with maybe production starting late this year. Truck/SUV market is where the big cash is in the US market and Rivian and Ford have beat them to the punch with GM and Ram soon to follow.
Tesla's Semi, the next closest thing to a light launch is also late to the market. Freightliner has had the eCascadia out and Peterbilt had their own Class 8 electric truck out too (579EV).
IMO, Tesla's stock is way overvalued all things considered.
@WetEV, I'd half agree with you on the Supercharger network. My understanding is it's still a huge value added part - but as infrastructure build out happens, I don't know how much more of an edge that is, especially with increasing consolidation along the lines of the CCS QC Standard. I suppose it depends on how they use the asset, but then arguably Volkswagen had the same asset via EA.
