Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

[GRA]

Wow can't really grasp the straws that some are grasping, hoping fcv are worth it? Ya got some pipe dream going. All the while the real world will continue with evs. Good luck with that Toyota and yer mirage.

At the moment the real world is continuing with ICEs, except where EVs (of any type) are heavily subsidized/granted major perks.

 

[edatoakrun]

...At the moment the real world is continuing with ICEs, except where EVs (of any type) are heavily subsidized/granted major perks.

At the moment, gas is cheap, due not only to the huge subsidies given to its production, but also to the higher subsidy per gallon (variously calculated at ~$2 to 6$) which every ICEV driver takes when they dump their exhaust, into our atmosphere.

Back on-topic, the Mirai clearly has surpassed the Tesla S/X as the EV with the highest-per-car subsidy in California.

The $6,000 subsidy per car paid to the lessor (or buyer, if any are sold) is dwarfed by subsidy from the nine CARB credits it is awarded, with a market value up to ~$5,000 each, for each Mirai Toyota can move out the door.

Unfortunately, the actual market price paid per CARB credit is not made public, so its impossible to calculate how much each MIrai costs California taxpayers and drivers.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Unfortunately, the actual market price paid per CARB credit is not made public, so its impossible to calculate how much each MIrai costs California taxpayers and drivers.

Isn't the market price really just the price that other automakers are paying to buy the credits? If so, how is that a cost incurred on California taxpayers? Drivers I certainly understand.

 

[GRA]

...At the moment the real world is continuing with ICEs, except where EVs (of any type) are heavily subsidized/granted major perks.

At the moment, gas is cheap, due not only to the huge subsidies given to its production, but also to the higher subsidy per gallon (variously calculated at ~$2 to 6$) which every ICEV driver takes when they dump their exhaust, into our atmosphere.

Sure, none of which is direct and thus is invisible to the consumer, so for all most of them know that's the real cost of the cars. Of course, in many countries (especially in europe) gas isn't cheap, but ICEs still rule the roost except where huge subsidies and perks exist.

Back on-topic, the Mirai clearly has surpassed the Tesla S/X as the EV with the highest-per-car subsidy in California.

The $6,000 subsidy per car paid to the lessor (or buyer, if any are sold) is dwarfed by subsidy from the nine CARB credits it is awarded, with a market value up to ~$5,000 each, for each Mirai Toyota can move out the door.

Unfortunately, the actual market price paid per CARB credit is not made public, so its impossible to calculate how much each MIrai costs California taxpayers and drivers.

CARB ZEV credit balances for the FY ending Sept. 30th, 2014 show that Toyota had about 8,765 credits, and transferred none of them, so they must be using them all for themselves: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevcredits/2013zevcredits.htm

The California rebate for FCEVs is $5K, or $6.5K if the buyer/lessee is below 3x the federal poverty limit (which is pretty unlikely given the price). OTOH, the federal tax credit of $8k for FCEVs expired last year and hasn't been renewed. BEVs are still eligible for up to $7.5K credit from that, plus $2.5k or $4k (< 300& FPL) rebate from the state, with an income cap of $250k (still much too high, but at least there is one now). The income cap doesn't yet apply to FCEVs. PHEVs get either $1.5k or $3k (<300% FPL) rebate.

 

[finman100]

sorry. it is all smoke and mirrors. please do not encourage this path. pipe dreams are not for everyone. and no i will not EVER stop with the reality that hydrogen is stupid for cars.

 

[GRA]

You are welcome to your opinion, as are we all.

 

[finman100]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mk-Q4HMjOU&feature=youtu.be

 

[user 10599]

I just attended an intro event for the Mirai and got to drive it briefly - unfortunately only in a 35MPH zone so true performance not really tested.

Very informative event especially since I was clueless about FCV prior to attending. They are indicating price of $57.5k, but are providing a $7.5k incentive since the Fed credit lapsed, for a net $50k. Then you get $5k from Calif., so you are looking at a net price of $45k. Then they give you a $15k debit card to use for fuel purchases for 3 years. Thus it is a $30k car to get into vs. the $25k net I paid for my 2013 Leaf.

Also you get 7 days of car rental per year for 3 years for when you want to go somewhere other than Calif. or where the infrastructure isn't adequate yet. They seem convinced that in 3 years there will be adequate infrastructure. We are 5 years into the Leaf in California and I think that infrastructure still has a long ways to go. So I'm a little leery of this projection.

Or you can lease for $499/mo. with $3.6k down. Not sure if you get the $15k debit card on a lease.

They suggest that while in Nor.Cal., there is a spot where the fuel is $13/kg, in LA it is about $6/kg, or $30 per tank which provides 300 miles range. That is 10 miles per $ for fuel with what they claim will be better pricing as the infrastructure matures. That compares favorably to my ICE which at 25 mpg yields a little over 7 miles per $ assuming $3.50 for it's required premium gas here in Calif. But this is still much worse than my driving on sunshine in my Leaf powered by my solar panels.

Not sure if the debit card expires after 3 years. If so, then you probably won't get the full $15k value as that would require driving 150,000 miles in 3 years. So should probably assume net cost to get in would be somewhere north of $35k. What it really does is make one not care what the fuel price is for 3 years and then hope that by then the price has gotten more reasonable.

The car itself seemed very nicely styled, comfortable, smooth and mostly quiet. The 'engine' or something makes a disconcerting whine when you really step on the accelerator. But I suspect I would get used to that quick or wouldn't even notice it with the music on, but since we had the music off so we could talk with the tech demonstrating the car, this whine was distinctly noticeable. The trunk seemed a bit on the small side considering the size of the car, but still usable. While it was more sure footed than the Leaf being a lower profile vehicle, it was not as snappy in performance as the EVs I've driven.

Basically I liked it and think that it would be a viable choice if the infrastructure does indeed develop as they hope. For the short term (pre-2018ish) I would have to refuel in route to work and on the way home as their map of existing/upcoming stations had none near me (closest is a 30 minute drive). So I don't believe I will be an early adopter on this one. But if I were lucky enough to have an early station close by, I would seriously consider it. Though I do believe the EV provides better value, I do like to dabble a bit. I like the idea of having one gas-hybrid, one EV and one FCV in the family. I've been very happy with Toyota (love our Highlander Hybrid) and think that if anyone can make this leap of faith work, they would be the ones to pull it off.

One intriguing feature is that the Japanese models have a port in the trunk that can be used to power your home using the Mirai as a generator. That supposedly will be an option for the 2017 model, but not available in the US for 2016. They had one there and the tech showed it to me. It looked like a ChadeMo port, so I'm a little puzzled how that would power the home without an expensive adapter. Though it would be cool if the Mirai could serve as a Level 3 charger for my Leaf - I could use it as my own Leaf recovery vehicle. But I didn't think to ask the tech that so it might be too good to be true.

I'm sufficiently intrigued that I will go ahead and get on their no commitment waiting list. If the infrastructure builds out fast enough, this could work by the time my slot comes up sometime in 2017. If no station exists near me, then I would pass.

 

[GRA]

You get the $15k debit card whether you buy or lease, but it's nuts to buy one now when the future development of the infrastructure (and price of fuel) is so uncertain - hopefully early adopters who bought their LEAFs back in 2011 due to EV-1 angst have gotten over it by now. Toyota says they expect 95% of people to lease, and that's what makes sense given any rapidly developing tech facing many unknowns. You can always buy the lease out at the end if things go the way you hope, or turn it in and go to something else if they don't.

Even at $14/kg. you would get 1,071 kg. in three years, which at say 60 mpk (Mirai rated at 67) would take you over 60k miles, way beyond your lease mileage.

 

[user 10599]

Yeah, I'm thinking for this the lease approach would make more sense.

Question: Does the debit card expire after 3 years? Can it be used elsewhere for other stuff or only for hydrogen? If it is restricted and expires, then the typical buyer won't get that $15k benefit unless the price of hydrogen is raised dramatically. And if that happens, then Toyota will be getting a bunch of Mirai's returned at the end of lease.

I got burned by VW's $50 debit card for test driving the eGolf. After using it down to $28, it expired and Citibank refuses to provide any way to access those funds. So I'm rather leery of debit cards (and Citibank). Fortunately, the gift was not the reason I did the test drive, so I'm not too upset with VW over that.

If the terms of the debit card work properly such that it is a $30k cost, then the likely deal breaker for me is the lack of fuel. The fueling station map doesn't show any current or planned locations close to either home or work. It does show one en route between home and work for the 3 different routes I usually take, but I'm not fond of fueling during the commute. I prefer to get it done on the weekend or during lunch break.

When I first heard about hydrogen cars, I was thinking that we could install an electrolysis unit at home powered by my solar panels. But that does not appear to be an option. :roll:

 

[user 10599]

So for the lease, is the following math correct?

$499/mo x 36 months = $18k
Due at signing = $3.6k
Total upfront = $21.6k

You get a $15k debit card. Thus after 3 years of driving, your total cost of ownership assuming nearly no maintenance costs (battery, tires and brakes should last at least 3 years) would be $6.6k ($21.6k paid - $15k back in debit card) plus the actual cost of fuel?

That sounds too good to be true. I'm guessing they have the debit card structured to be limited only to hydrogen and will expire after 3 years with the unused balance going back to them.

If it is true, I see why they expect 95% to lease. The other 5% must be interested in modding the car. :lol:

 

[smkettner]

I assume you would burn through the 15k debit card powering your home :|

 

[GRA]

So for the lease, is the following math correct?

$499/mo x 36 months = $18k
Due at signing = $3.6k
Total upfront = $21.6k

You get a $15k debit card. Thus after 3 years of driving, your total cost of ownership assuming nearly no maintenance costs (battery, tires and brakes should last at least 3 years) would be $6.6k ($21.6k paid - $15k back in debit card) plus the actual cost of fuel?

That sounds too good to be true. I'm guessing they have the debit card structured to be limited only to hydrogen and will expire after 3 years with the unused balance going back to them.

If it is true, I see why they expect 95% to lease. The other 5% must be interested in modding the car. :lol:

Okay, found some more details at Priuschat, and I appear to have been wrong about purchased cars, so apologies. The debit card, AIUI, is only for fuel purchase, and only applies to leased cars. If you buy, they knock $15k off the price and you pay for fuel yourself. For leasing, they're buying your fuel for you while it's still too expensive to compete with fossil fuels, not giving you a $15k debit card to do with as you like. And AFAIK, it's only for the three year term of the lease, so you'd have to considerably exceed the lease mileage of 12k/yr. to use it all up. This allows for the price of H2 to be considerably higher than $14/kg., which is hardly likely if that's the most expensive H2 now, with prices bound to come down due to the learning curve and economies of scale. In fact, the price of H2 would need to rise to almost $28/kg. before you'd start paying for fuel on a lease yourself, assuming you stayed within the 12k mile yearly limit. What isn't clear to me is if Toyota ties the yearly mileage limit to the fuel purchase - I'm not sure if they still pay for the fuel for any mileage over 12k/yr or 36k/mile in 3 years, or if it's 'up to $15k for a max. of 36k miles.'

 

[GRA]

Yeah, I'm thinking for this the lease approach would make more sense.

Question: Does the debit card expire after 3 years? Can it be used elsewhere for other stuff or only for hydrogen? If it is restricted and expires, then the typical buyer won't get that $15k benefit unless the price of hydrogen is raised dramatically. And if that happens, then Toyota will be getting a bunch of Mirai's returned at the end of lease.

Answered in preceding post.

<snip>

If the terms of the debit card work properly such that it is a $30k cost, then the likely deal breaker for me is the lack of fuel. The fueling station map doesn't show any current or planned locations close to either home or work. It does show one en route between home and work for the 3 different routes I usually take, but I'm not fond of fueling during the commute. I prefer to get it done on the weekend or during lunch break.

If you're not cool with fueling during the commute, then I'd say this is not for you at this time, given what you know about near-time infrastructure plans.

When I first heard about hydrogen cars, I was thinking that we could install an electrolysis unit at home powered by my solar panels. But that does not appear to be an option. :roll:

There are some (covered in the H2 thread, although I forget the details), but they're a long way from being available at your neighborhood Home Depot, or likely to be legal or cost-effective in this country anytime soon, even assuming you could get a permit for one. Japan, which has been installing individual home fuel cells for a while now, is probably closer to commercializing them.

 

[user 10599]

Oohh so Japan gets the sensible solution. If I could install my own home unit powered by my solar panels, I would definitely be getting in on this. But if they don't make that an option, I will have to wait until they get more infrastructure built out.

 

[user 10599]

Had the phone interview today. Based on my home and work locations, they are putting me down as a possibility for 2017.

Of course at about that time, I anticipate reasonably priced EVs with the extra range I need will be available. So I will not likely be an early adopter on this one.

 

[user 10599]

Looking closely at the map of planned stations, it looks like the earliest a FCV could work for me would be 2nd Quarter of 2016 assuming the planned stations open for business on schedule. So I have some time to wait and see how they progress and what the competing options are.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

The mirai of Mirai:

https://www.facebook.com/TransportEvolved/posts/543022409182302

 

[GRA]

Via ievs:

Toyota: Mirai “Flying Off Virtual Shelf”, Order Requests Hit 1,900

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-order-requests-hit-1900/

. . . 1,900 order requests were registered by the end of September on a special website that opened on 20th July (here). Toyota only intends to deliver 1,000 2016 Mirais to the U.S. . . .

As “Trailblazing customers” soon will get the chance to order their Mirai for real, that will provide us with an answer of real demand, as the 1,900 requests did not require any deposit or vetting of the persons applying.

In a previous story, we noted that plug-ins enjoyed a larger initial interest:

For reference: The Nissan LEAF netted 2,700 $99 deposits in the first three hours, while the Chevrolet Volt had a private list of more than 50,000 interested in the extended range EV – even before the company made the car available.

Production for Japan, US and Europe is limited to total 700 Mirai this year, 2,000 in 2016 and 3,000 in 2017.

I'd add that when the LEAF and Volt were introduced there were NO PEVs available other than the
Roadster, so it's not a directly comparable situation. The pent-up excitement over a "production electric car" has ebbed, so anyone expecting there to be a similar rush of interest as was the case 5 years ago was bound to be disappointed. But there's every reason to be skeptical of how hard the Mirai's numbers are, even though the statement in the article that Toyota wasn't doing any vetting is incorrect, as some posters here who were interested in the car have shown.

 

[GRA]

Over in the Mirai Forum an interested customer has been told that Toyota has now allocated all U.S. MY 2016 Mirais (300 out of 700 total?) to customers (including him, I think) expected to arrive by the end of this year, and established a waiting list for the follow-on batch of cars, that apparently won't start to arrive until late '16. See http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=27&start=10